OT: Nor'easter (rain then snow?) 3/1-2, then wintry pattern for next week?
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Expect new maps soon...from the NWS:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
820 AM Update...We are currently working on updating the
forecast and should be out by 9 AM. Colder air wrapping around
the southwestern side of the low has allowed for rain to mix
with and even change over to snow in NE MD and DE, especially
when precip intensity temporarily increases (added contribution
via enhanced dynamical cooling). Based on these recent ground-
truth reports, mesoanalysis and what we are seeing in hi-res
rapid refresh guidance, the trend is cooler or closer to the 12
km NAM and NAM nest. However, we do not buy into the extreme
outlier snowfall accumulations these models are showing (e.g.,
5-10" of snow along and east of the DE Valley down into the
greater Phila area) b/c these algorithms assume a 10:1 SLR and
b/c the model explicit microphysics package indicates something
other than just pure snow (rain/snow mix) with probability of
frozen precip values in the 40-80 percent range. More details to
come after the update...
edit - here's the updated NWS Philly map - only very modest increases for 95 from none to <1". I would've gone with 1-2"/2-3", as I said earlier. I think more snow will fall than that, but it's going to have a hard time accumulating with surface temps in the mid-30s and during daylight and with so much standing water - will definitely have more of a chance for accumulation on grassy surfaces in the 95 corridor. 25+ miles NW of the Turnpike, it's colder and snow should accumulate easier and certainly major snowfalls are expected and underway. Reports of 4-8" already from Warren/Sussex/W-Passaic and even more in the Poconos/Catskills) - places like that could easily see a foot of snow.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
820 AM Update...We are currently working on updating the
forecast and should be out by 9 AM. Colder air wrapping around
the southwestern side of the low has allowed for rain to mix
with and even change over to snow in NE MD and DE, especially
when precip intensity temporarily increases (added contribution
via enhanced dynamical cooling). Based on these recent ground-
truth reports, mesoanalysis and what we are seeing in hi-res
rapid refresh guidance, the trend is cooler or closer to the 12
km NAM and NAM nest. However, we do not buy into the extreme
outlier snowfall accumulations these models are showing (e.g.,
5-10" of snow along and east of the DE Valley down into the
greater Phila area) b/c these algorithms assume a 10:1 SLR and
b/c the model explicit microphysics package indicates something
other than just pure snow (rain/snow mix) with probability of
frozen precip values in the 40-80 percent range. More details to
come after the update...
edit - here's the updated NWS Philly map - only very modest increases for 95 from none to <1". I would've gone with 1-2"/2-3", as I said earlier. I think more snow will fall than that, but it's going to have a hard time accumulating with surface temps in the mid-30s and during daylight and with so much standing water - will definitely have more of a chance for accumulation on grassy surfaces in the 95 corridor. 25+ miles NW of the Turnpike, it's colder and snow should accumulate easier and certainly major snowfalls are expected and underway. Reports of 4-8" already from Warren/Sussex/W-Passaic and even more in the Poconos/Catskills) - places like that could easily see a foot of snow.
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It's likely going to go back and forth much of the day - when precip is heavy, the column cools enough for the snow that's always falling from thousands of feet up to stay snow...when precip rates decrease, the column warms a little and melts the falling snowflakes. Elevation is very important too. Very hard to predict intensity - could easily have some very odd results, like several inches of snow in Matawan and very little in Perth Amboy (or vice versa) and 4" in Somerville and a foot up on the Watchung ridges at elevation.
The Meadowlands has finally wised up and canceled racing early,joining Freehold,Aqueduct,and Yonkers.
Expect new maps soon...from the NWS:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
820 AM Update...We are currently working on updating the
forecast and should be out by 9 AM. Colder air wrapping around
the southwestern side of the low has allowed for rain to mix
with and even change over to snow in NE MD and DE, especially
when precip intensity temporarily increases (added contribution
via enhanced dynamical cooling). Based on these recent ground-
truth reports, mesoanalysis and what we are seeing in hi-res
rapid refresh guidance, the trend is cooler or closer to the 12
km NAM and NAM nest. However, we do not buy into the extreme
outlier snowfall accumulations these models are showing (e.g.,
5-10" of snow along and east of the DE Valley down into the
greater Phila area) b/c these algorithms assume a 10:1 SLR and
b/c the model explicit microphysics package indicates something
other than just pure snow (rain/snow mix) with probability of
frozen precip values in the 40-80 percent range. More details to
come after the update...
edit - here's the updated NWS Philly map - only very modest increases for 95 from none to <1". I would've gone with 1-2"/2-3", as I said earlier. I think more snow will fall than that, but it's going to have a hard time accumulating with surface temps in the mid-30s and during daylight and with so much standing water - will definitely have more of a chance for accumulation on grassy surfaces in the 95 corridor. 25+ miles NW of the Turnpike, it's colder and snow should accumulate easier and certainly major snowfalls are expected and underway. Reports of 4-8" already from Warren/Sussex/W-Passaic and even more in the Poconos/Catskills) - places like that could easily see a foot of snow.
Latest from NWS-Philly below. Basically they added warnings for Morris/Warren and an advisory for Hunterdon, especially at higher elevations; they're also considering blizzard warnings for the NW counties. Could easily see a few inches of slush along 95 and at the coast when precip gets heavy enough, but might not get sustained heavy enough snow to accumulate on roads. We'll see.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM Update...
Headline changes: Morris and Warren Counties in N NJ were
upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. The Winter Weather Advisory
was expanded to include Hunterdon County in NJ. We may need to
do a short-fused upgrade to a blizzard warning for Carbon and
Monroe Counties. The 14Z METAR at MPO is the first observation
that support blizzard conditions.
Forecast changes: Blended previous temperature forecast (25%)
with the last few runs of the HRRR (25%) and the colder NAM
nest (50%). Re-ran PoWT top-down procedure using a blend of the
RAP and NAM to capture the colder trend that seems to be
verifying right now (though the NAM still seems too cold). This
resulted in a quicker/more aggressive changeover from rain to
rain-snow mix and/or snow across the region today.
Forecast snowfall accumulations were tweaker higher with the
latest update for higher elevations N/W of the Fall Line. We
still think this will be a highly elevation-dependent snowfall
event across NE PA and NW NJ. In addition to the very dangerous
travel conditions (due to snow-covered roads and poor
visibilities) today, the combination of this snow being heavy
and wet and the strong northwest winds gusting 40 to 55 mph is
cause for concern that significant damage to trees and utility
lines will occur, resulting in numerous to potentially
widespread power outages. The ridges above 800 feet in elevation
north of I-78 will experience a high impact wintry event.
For lower elevations along and east of the Fall Line, there
have already been reports of rain changing to snow across
Delmarva and central NJ in bursts of heavier precip (via
enhanced dynamical cooling). Rain will continue to mix with or
changeover to snow at times throughout the day, especially
across NJ where the heavier deformation band on the western side
of the low will rotate through. Eventually, this band may pivot
back to the south/west, late this afternoon, allowing for a
brief changeover to snow again over Delmarva. Overall, do not
expect snow to accumulate on roads owing to the warm ground but
localized accumulations on non-paved surfaces are possible. We
do not buy into the extreme outlier snowfall accumulations these
models are showing (e.g., 5-10" of snow along and east of the
DE Valley down into the greater Phila area) b/c these algorithms
assume a 10:1 SLR and b/c the model explicit microphysics
package indicates something other than just pure snow (rain/snow
mix) with probability of frozen precip values in the 40-80
percent range.
New snow map up for Mt Holly...remember for those south of 78, its mainly grassy surfaces than pavement...some accumulation could happen on paved surfaces later this evening when the sun goes down and if the intensity of precip is strong but the wet and warm ground is alot to overcome
https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
NWS has New Brunswick at 40% chance of snowfall greater than 1 inch, and 27% chance of greater than 2 inches.
NWS finally realized it's going to snow along 95 and the coast. See the new snowfall map. Next 6 hours are the main show, as intensity is going to increase as the low deepens and that'll lead to better dynamic cooling of the column and more snow and accumulating snow. Hope to see a few inches. Lots of places N/W with 4-8" or more already.
Wouldn't be surprised to see blizzard warnings where there are winter storm warnings right now (Poconos, Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic, Hudson Valley and it's a real threat to see blizzard conditions for periods of time in the next several hours even along 95 and the coast (probably not sustained enough to meet blizzard criteria, but that doesn't matter that much). Be careful out there this afternoon.
yet models have people having accumulating snow on the ground now in some areas and that has not verified....I think when most people think of accumulations they think of road impacts on pavement and that is simply going to be hard to come by today for those south of 78
Nothing sticking to the ground. Weather channel say it ends at 5pm and then rain showers. The temperature is going up 1-2 degree after 6 pm.
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Up here in Sussex County Its a war zone, Roads closed, Power outages and Trees down EVERYWHERE!!!
Half a Tree fell on my daughters house! Through the living room roof and a portion of it broke off and went through the front bay window. Luckily power was out and they were in upstairs bedrooms on the other side of the house or my grandson would have been on the couch where this thing came through the cathedral ceiling!
Half a Tree fell on my daughters house! Through the living room roof and a portion of it broke off and went through the front bay window. Luckily power was out and they were in upstairs bedrooms on the other side of the house or my grandson would have been on the couch where this thing came through the cathedral ceiling!
Not much snow in the Hudson Valley but trees also coming down everywhere. Some are snapping and other tipping over (flat ground has been soggy for weeks). Slush sitting on branches. Its kinda like October 2010 as far as tree/branch falls go. I stand outside and just watch them coming down all around.
1N in South Edison is closed due to downed poles - winds are seriously howling - a few friends have reported trees down in the area.
If we don't get more sustained intensity in many places (like here), the snow simply won't overcome the substantial melting rate at midday with temps in the mid-30s and with large amounts of water on the ground. If we would get 1/2" per hour or more snowfall (haven't had it yet, but models indicated we would), snow would accumulate easily as it has elsewhere. I have a sliver of a coating right now, but barely measureable, i.e., probably <0.1" of snow.
If we don't get more sustained intensity in many places (like here), the snow simply won't overcome the substantial melting rate at midday with temps in the mid-30s and with large amounts of water on the ground. If we would get 1/2" per hour or more snowfall (haven't had it yet, but models indicated we would), snow would accumulate easily as it has elsewhere. I have a sliver of a coating right now, but barely measureable, i.e., probably <0.1" of snow.
snow is not the story and never has been for most...its been about wind and potential power and tree damage
2" in Toms River is a fantasy.NWS finally realized it's going to snow along 95 and the coast. See the new snowfall map. Next 6 hours are the main show, as intensity is going to increase as the low deepens and that'll lead to better dynamic cooling of the column and more snow and accumulating snow. Hope to see a few inches. Lots of places N/W with 4-8" or more already.
Wouldn't be surprised to see blizzard warnings where there are winter storm warnings right now (Poconos, Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic, Hudson Valley and it's a real threat to see blizzard conditions for periods of time in the next several hours even along 95 and the coast (probably not sustained enough to meet blizzard criteria, but that doesn't matter that much). Be careful out there this afternoon.
I'm in Montgomery county, PA, Lansdale/ North Wales area about 20 mi NW of center city philly. The forecast was rain changing "non accumulating" snow on paved surfaces late in day. The change over occurred @11am. Most folks at work dismissed as wet snow.
it is a disaster. Yes, its sticking to the roads. About 4" already. Its also below 32F. 10mph on back roads coming home, 8mi drive took almost an hour. Several accidents on 309, NE Extension, and a section of the Schykul was closed earlier.
it is a disaster. Yes, its sticking to the roads. About 4" already. Its also below 32F. 10mph on back roads coming home, 8mi drive took almost an hour. Several accidents on 309, NE Extension, and a section of the Schykul was closed earlier.
2" for western Monmouth is a fantasy. It's been snowing for 4 hours and we have zero accumulation. There's not even any snow on the pool cover, which is the traditional snow magnet in marginal temps.
The wind is threatening to do some damage, though.
yeah its all about location and banding and looks like you guys got into the heavier bands that allowed everything to cool and get snow sticking.
NWS just issued winter weather advisories for every county north of 195 (and Ocean) for a few inches of snow to fall between now and mid-evening. They're expecting intensity to pick and snow to start accumulating on grassy surfaces and maybe sidestreets. Will be interesting to see if this verifies - intensity will absolutely have to increase for this to verify.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...
NJZ012>014-020-026-030715-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0900Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Jackson, and Long Beach Island
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches.
* WHERE...Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean Counties in central New
Jersey.
* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate to heavy at times
this afternoon and evening. The snow will gradually taper off
from west to east late this evening and overnight though it may
linger until early Saturday morning along the New Jersey coast.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow has initially struggled
to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
accumulate on untreated secondary roads, bridges and overpasses
especially after sunset and during bursts of heavier snow. Plan
on slippery travel conditions, including for the evening
commute.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...
NJZ010-015-PAZ061-103>106-030300-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Mercer-Lehigh-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Allentown,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches at elevations above 700
feet.
* WHERE...Somerset and Mercer Counties in central New Jersey and
Lehigh, Montgomery and Bucks Counties in eastern Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate to heavy at times
through sunset. The snow will gradually taper off from west to
east this evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow had initially struggled
to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
accumulate on untreated secondary roads, bridges and overpasses
especially after sunset and during bursts of heavier snow. Plan
on slippery travel conditions, including for the evening
commute.
Not a fantasy at all if we ever get the higher intensity bands that have simply not been hitting most of Central NJ - just look at TM514's report and I've seen similar reports of 1-4" of snow all over the NW Philly suburbs, which aren't any more "favored" for snow than here - they've just gotten the heavier precip. So far. It might not happen here, but it certainly can. I'll admit I'm skeptical, as the precip just hasn't been as intense as modeled since this morning when the snow started mixing in.
We just had a RIT job in Belmar (quick cancel), and Ramshorn ("Ram shorn" LOL) and Route 34 were a bit slushy. Surprised the County and State did not do a brine dump.
I haven't been paying close attention but it seems like a busy day. A couple WSFs, Freehold and Middletown.
Also - somewhere in the archives is a tape of Tink intentionally mispronouncing "Shinnecock".
Partially agree, but the issue with winds and coastal flooding is they have been a given for days with not much variance in their forecast, hence, other than noting them and people preparing for at least the coastal flooding part at the coast (can't prepare for a downed tree), there hasn't been much to discuss.
On the other hand the rain to snow has been an outrageously difficult, complex and controversial (meteorologically, at least) topic with huge differences in opinions and model outputs and forecasts for days. And since there have been huge differences in potential impacts related to the possible snow part, it's been the main discussion point (and not just because I like snow, lol).
Even now, I'm not sure if I'm going to continue getting trivial white rain or if the intensity is going to pick up and I get a few inches of snow with possible short term blizzard conditions (in the middle of Friday pm rush). And, of course, for people who have already been getting significant snow, it's a pretty big deal.
Pretty quiet here.
I miss the 43rd. I would have been 43-67 this year. They have had 6 structure fire calls in 2018. I am sure they are running hard today with flooding, wires and the usual nonsense when it floods, like small compact cars trying to drive through 4 feet of water.
Zero jobs here, and I am a probie. :weary:
give it up, radar returns are lessening to the north, that area certainly got into the banding but they were the rarity and widespread amounts of 5-10 spit out by the NAM/Euro were garbage...seems like the GFS wasnt so out to lunch
Old-ass probie. I thought I was bad, being a probie at 40.
It's SO much fun, though, being part of a good-sized probie class (there were 15 of us when I started) and knowing pretty much everything, while the rest of them are still trying to figure out how to put their gloves on.
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