OT: Nor'easter (rain then snow?) 3/1-2, then wintry pattern for next week?

[RU848789]

We had one of those bands move through between 2 and 3.

No accumulation.

There's a report of 1.3" in Freehold in the NWS PNS - might've just missed you. We're up to a solid 1/4" now in Metuchen, lol. Thought we'd get about 2", but unless things pick up, that ain't happenin' - subsidence over CNJ/NENJ, while SE PA and the coast look to be getting some heavy bands.

 

[RU4Real]

There's a report of 1.3" in Freehold in the NWS PNS - might've just missed you. We're up to a solid 1/4" now in Metuchen, lol. Thought we'd get about 2", but unless things pick up, that ain't happenin' - subsidence over CNJ/NENJ, while SE PA and the coast look to be getting some heavy bands.

I've been out driving around. The 1.3" in Freehold is a lie. I'm only 3 miles from Freehold boro.

 

[RU848789]

give it up, radar returns are lessening to the north, that area certainly got into the banding but they were the rarity and widespread amounts of 5-10 spit out by the NAM/Euro were garbage...seems like the GFS wasnt so out to lunch

The GFS has actually been way off. The model prints out the expected snow that falls, not what will accumulate and the GFS has had zero for anyone 20 miles NW of 95 down to the coast. All of those areas have probably received about 2-4" of fallen snow that simply hasn't accumulated due to intensities below the ~3/8" per hour melting rate. I'm guessing we've been getting 1/4-3/8" of snow per hour since about 9 am - that's about 2" worth of snow having fallen, but none accumulating. And we're not done yet. The NAM was probably ovedone the whole time, but that's not too unusual, but then again, it's been much better for NW areas. The Euro has probably been the best actually.

 

[OTBOTOR]

I've been out driving around. The 1.3" in Freehold is a lie. I'm only 3 miles from Freehold boro.

Makes me wonder how these accumulations are tallied. If I had 0.1” on my grill cover at 10am, then it melted away within minutes, then got another 0.1” at noon, which immediately melted away, then another 0.1” an hour later, that disappeared within 10 min. Did I get 0.3” of snow accumulation, even though nothing stayed on the grill cover for more than a few min, and I never had more than 0.1” at any time?

 

[knightfan7]

Wind has really picked up over the past hour along the coast. I'd guess pretty constant 25-30 mph with higher gusts.

 

[RU848789]

Makes me wonder how these accumulations are tallied. If I had 0.1” on my grill cover at 10am, then it melted away within minutes, then got another 0.1” at noon, which immediately melted away, then another 0.1” an hour later, that disappeared within 10 min. Did I get 0.3” of snow accumulation, even though nothing stayed on the grill cover for more than a few min, and I never had more than 0.1” at any time?

Typically one measures 4 times per day on a white snowboard, but there's also the guidance to try to capture the end of a snowfall prior to melting/compaction in order to get a more accurate number. You're not supposed to be measuring frequently and adding up the measurements, though. There is guidance for multiple events to try to capture the most snow that was on the board at any one time, so in this case, the reported snowfall would be 0.1", since all 3 measurements were within a 6 hour period. The one mistake many make is waiting several hours after the snow to measure, allowing melting/compaction which gives an erroneously low snowfall.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/u...nowfall-is-not-as-simple-as-it-may-seem/75819

 

[RU848789]

I've been out driving around. The 1.3" in Freehold is a lie. I'm only 3 miles from Freehold boro.

Could have been, as I've always suspected a few folks exaggerate significantly. However, there are multiple people reporting an inch or more in parts of Monmouth now, as they're getting hammered with a heavy band and one guy is sharing pics, including someone in Englishtown. You confirm? With the sun going down and it dropping to 34F, we're starting to accumulate a bit - have maybe 3/8" coating now, but about to get hit with a decent band, hopefully. Will consider it a victory to get to 1" here.

 

[RU848789]

The GFS has actually been way off. The model prints out the expected snow that falls, not what will accumulate and the GFS has had zero for anyone 20 miles NW of 95 down to the coast. All of those areas have probably received about 2-4" of fallen snow that simply hasn't accumulated due to intensities below the ~3/8" per hour melting rate. I'm guessing we've been getting 1/4-3/8" of snow per hour since about 9 am - that's about 2" worth of snow having fallen, but none accumulating. And we're not done yet. The NAM was probably ovedone the whole time, but that's not too unusual, but then again, it's been much better for NW areas. The Euro has probably been the best actually.

I elaborated on this, as per below, on 33andrain and dsnowx53, one of the most respected pros on that board said, "This is an excellent post. I agree with your analysis 100%." Always nice to get recognition from a red-tagger.

"So, while I don't have "proof" of the ~3/8" per hour melting rate for March during the day with temps in the mid-30s, it seems to be a pretty good guess, as we've had light to moderate snow that I would think would normally be accumulating around that rate (I've watched and measured a lot of snow over 40+ years, starting as an 8 year old) - and all we've had to show for it is the 1/4" or so on my lawn right now and a similar amount about 3 hours ago. What that means is that we've actually had maybe 7 hours of snow fall at 3/8" per hour, which is almost 3" of snow and I could see another 2" to come in the next several hours, even if not much accumulates.

That would end up being a 3-5" snow fall, which is not that far off what the high res models were predicting for the urban corridor and is way more than the 0" the GFS predicted to actually fall from 20+ miles NW of 95 down to the coast. I think some will mistakenly say the GFS was "right" when it clearly was not. However, the NWS puts out snow accumulation maps, not snow fall maps and in hindsight their pretty low accumulation maps will probably end up being right, unless we get some big late high intensity push. Anyway, thought this perspective might be useful and worth some discussion."

 

[e5fdny]

Wind has really picked up over the past hour along the coast. I'd guess pretty constant 25-30 mph with higher gusts.

Lacrosse rebounder in the backyard blew over from the wind.

 

[RUInsanity]

Blizzard like conditions throughout the day in Western Morris county. About 6 inches, high winds, trees down roads closed. Power out since about 10 am.

 

[RU4Real]

Could have been, as I've always suspected a few folks exaggerate significantly. However, there are multiple people reporting an inch or more in parts of Monmouth now, as they're getting hammered with a heavy band and one guy is sharing pics, including someone in Englishtown. You confirm? With the sun going down and it dropping to 34F, we're starting to accumulate a bit - have maybe 3/8" coating now, but about to get hit with a decent band, hopefully. Will consider it a victory to get to 1" here.

I have some accumulation on my snowboard (it's actually a table), but it's "lumpy", with some bare spots.

 

[WhiteBus]

Was hoping to get home and relax, watch some baseball and golf. Got home, no power. A tree down on my street but power is underground. It must have been out for a bit as it was chilly in the house. So grabbed the dog and at my friends brewery. Short term all good but PECO sucks giving updates.
Snowing from 11am but only sticking on cars. If anyone reports more than a trace from NE Philly to Washington Crossing they should be removed from NWS list.

 

[Abro1975]

The 101 year old Italian lady who lives across the street from me just cleaned off her car and drove somewhere in the ice and snow. Lol. She still works at Seton Hall in the cafeteria and drives he Mercedes to church every morning. Remarkable.

 

[RocktheRac]

Nothing going on in Hillsborough. Just cobwebs on my snowplow and salter

 

[RU4Real]

The 101 year old Italian lady who lives across the street from me just cleaned off her car and drove somewhere in the ice and snow. Lol. She still works at Seton Hall in the cafeteria and drives he Mercedes to church every morning. Remarkable.

This afternoon I saw a woman drive her Merc SUV out of her garage to the end of her driveway, where she sat and waited for a school bus to stop in front of the driveway, at which point a kid got off the school bus, got into the car and the woman backed up the driveway and into the garage.

This is why we we're losing.

 

[WhiteBus]

Nothing going on in Hillsborough. Just cobwebs on my snowplow and salter

You should go to the deli than. Pick up something warm to take home.

 

[e5fdny]

The 101 year old Italian lady who lives across the street from me just cleaned off her car and drove somewhere in the ice and snow. Lol. She still works at Seton Hall in the cafeteria and drives he Mercedes to church every morning. Remarkable.

Like a boss...

 

[Knight Shift]

Nothing going on in Hillsborough. Just cobwebs on my snowplow and salter

Head on down to the deli and plow a MILF.

 

[Knight Shift]

This afternoon I saw a woman drive her Merc SUV out of her garage to the end of her driveway, where she sat and waited for a school bus to stop in front of the driveway, at which point a kid got off the school bus, got into the car and the woman backed up the driveway and into the garage.

This is why we we're losing.

Woe is us. At 13, I was working at a car wash 3.5 miles from our house. I rode my bicycle to work every single day, rain, shine, snow, 100 degrees, or 10 degrees, even when my parents were home on weekends. It never occurred to me to even ask for a ride. The school bus stops are lined with cars nowadays even in nice weather.

 

[rags]

Friends up in Shohola Pa (near intersection of Pa,NY,NJ) were up to 22" of snow as of an hour ago ... here in East Windsor we've have an uneven coating on the grass - but based on duration and intensity was probably 3-5 inches that came down and melted in the water soaked ground ...with the water starting to seep into my sump pump-less basement I sure wish it would have stayed snow and kept my basement dry .

 

[koleszar]

Here in Howell looks like it's beginning to get cold enough to stick on the roads. Grass has about an inch on it. Whatever we get till it's over at 9 pm, looks like it's going to start to accumulate and it's really coming down hard.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Just had to walk to the mailbox - really nasty out there with the wind. We had at least 6 inches on the car - it collected there because it was cold. It's finally starting to accumulate en masse on the pavement, but only have 2-3 inches so far.

 

[RU848789]

Ripping now! Up to 1/2" on the board!! More seriously, with the heavier band we're finally under and should be for awhile, assuming it doesn't break up, I do think we'll get to an inch with an outside shot at a bit more. Coming down pretty good now and it's down to 33F with the sun now down, so melting rates should be much lower.

 

[gmay8]

I’m at kalihari water park in the poconos. Dumping snow, white out conditions. Power out at hotel, pitch black, no food, no lights, guests borderline rioting, it’s a zoo. Absolutely insane. No one can leave because of the conditions and it’s getting nuts here. This is wild

 

[RU848789]

88 and 81 mph gusts in Woods Hole and Taunton, MA, respectively. Wow. Up to 70 mph gusts on LI and a 65 mph gust in South Plainfield of all places. Likely record tidal flooding tonight in Boston Harbor. Minor to moderate flooding throughout NJ/NY/LI (nowhere near Sandy levels, but still damaging in places). Storm has the pressure of a Cat 2 hurricane. Blizzard conditions in many places in the N/W inland locations with many places getting 8-12" of snow (and 2 feet or more in upstate NY). Amtrak shut down till tomorrow and limited NJ Transit schedule (might have to drive in to MSG tonight). 250K without power in NJ/NY/CT. Pretty serious storm.

 

[retired711]

I'm just trying to make sure I understand. As I understand what RU848789 is saying, when a model predicts 5 inches of snow, what it means is not that there will be five inches on the ground, but there will be five inches falling to the earth's surface. The National Weather Service forecasts, by contrast, are for snow accumulations on the ground. No wonder the NWS's forecasts were consistently below the levels of the models, because they were forecasting different things.

It seems to me this makes models of dubious use in situations in which the temperature is close to freezing -- a frequent situation in New Jersey -- because the earth may be warm enough to melt the snow without it accumulating, even on grass surfaces. Or am I totally off-base?

 

[Knight Shift]

I’m at kalihari water park in the poconos. Dumping snow, white out conditions. Power out at hotel, pitch black, no food, no lights, guests borderline rioting, it’s a zoo. Absolutely insane. No one can leave because of the conditions and it’s getting nuts here. This is wild

Stay safe.
Having a good time?

 

[bac2therac]

the general public and that is just about everyone besides a weather weenied does not care if 5 inches falls from the sky if nothing accumulates and thats why they were pretty correct in the initial low totals. Also Numbers likes to use 10-1 ratios for accumulations which was never going to happen in this case.

got absolutely nothing here and radar appears to show the precipitation collapsing. Looks like some in PA made out better than most.

 

[RU848789]

the general public and that is just about everyone besides a weather weenied does not care if 5 inches falls from the sky if nothing accumulates and thats why they were pretty correct in the initial low totals. Also Numbers likes to use 10-1 ratios for accumulations which was never going to happen in this case.

got absolutely nothing here and radar appears to show the precipitation collapsing. Looks like some in PA made out better than most.

As I've said before, I do not like using 10:1 ratios for accumulations, per se - I like using them because I like knowing the liquid equivalent of frozen precip that's falling from the sky, as LE is indicative of impact (assuming it accumulates). I can do the calcs myself on what I think might or might not accumulate. I do agree that the public only cares about what accumulates, not what falls. In this case, it seemed likely that most of the region would get enough intensity to overcome melting to get 1-3" or so - that was pretty much true for everywhere except the general 95 corridor from Trenton to Newark. I kind of think the NWS simply got lucky that the intensity was unexpectedly low for 95, as compared to other areas.

For this storm I thought 1-3" accumulation would be a better call than none and I think that would have been a more reasonable call for the 95 corridor/coastal plain than the 0" the NWS was predicting. Turns out, as kind of feared, the range was pretty huge for the 95 corridor and coastal plain: had 2" in Philly, 4-8" SW of Philly, 2-5" in the NW Philly burbs, 1-2" in much of South Jersey, 1-3" in much of Monmouth/Ocean, but generally an inch or less in most of Mercer, Somerset and Middlesex and 1-2" in NYC.

So, overall, 1-3" would've been a better call than 0". It was just a weird miss of the snowbands that kept part of the 95 corridor from at least getting the 1-3" or more that much of the rest of NJ/PA got. In addition, the NWS completely missed on the NW locations - they only had significant snow for the higher elevations in Sussex, Carbon and Monroe and those verified, but so die 4-12" in Morris, the Lehigh Valley, Passaic and parts of Hunterdon

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
825 PM EST Fri Mar 02 2018

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

NEW JERSEY

...Atlantic County...
Hammonton 3.2 745 PM 3/02 Co-Op Observer
5 S Hammonton 1.0 251 PM 3/02 Co-Op Observer
Atlantic City Intl A T 700 PM 3/02 ASOS

...Burlington County...
Marlton 1.2 500 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Mount Laurel 1.1 900 PM 3/02 CoCoRaHS
Maple Shade 0.5 505 PM 3/02 Public
Mount Holly WFO 0.5 700 PM 3/02 NWS Office

...Camden County...
Cherry Hill 2.0 845 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Cumberland County...
Newport 1.3 600 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Gloucester County...
South Harrison Twp 3.5 815 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
West Deptford 2.5 630 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Hunterdon County...
Lebanon 1.8 730 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Readington 0.5 350 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Mercer County...
Ewing 0.2 340 PM 3/02 Meteorologist
Hamilton Twp 0.1 500 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Monmouth County...
Freehold 4.7 700 PM 3/02 Social Media
Clarksburg 3.3 930 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Howell 2.8 825 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Colts Neck 2.6 745 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Morris County...
Randolph Twp 11.3 730 PM 3/02 Social Media
Jefferson Twp 10.6 1045 PM 3/02 CoCoRaHS
Green Pond 10.0 1030 PM 3/02 Social Media
Lake Hopatcong 10.0 640 PM 3/02 Amateur Radio
Schooleys Mountain 9.0 315 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Marcella 8.0 1030 PM 3/02 Elevation 820 feet.
Denville 4.3 1030 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Rockaway 2.5 900 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Ledgewood 2.0 442 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Sussex County...
Branchville 16.5 1030 PM 3/02 Elevation 1200 FT
Highland Lakes 14.0 800 PM 3/02 Elevation 1400 FT
High Point 13.5 235 PM 3/02 Elevation 1500 FT
Vernon Twp 11.0 530 PM 3/02 Barry Lakes
3 N Wantage 8.0 410 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Stockholm 7.0 237 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Vernon Valley 5.5 530 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Warren County...
Oxford 6.0 415 PM 3/02 Social Media
Allamuchy 6.0 748 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Hackettstown 5.0 540 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Stewartsville 2.6 345 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

PENNSYLVANIA

...Berks County...
Huffs Church 2.1 400 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Bucks County...
Chalfont 5.5 800 PM 3/02 Social Media
Furlong 2.7 600 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Trevose 1.0 600 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Chester County...
Berwyn 7.0 520 PM 3/02 Social Media
Downingtown 4.6 700 PM 3/02 Social Media
East Nantmeal 3.3 630 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Devault 2.5 816 PM 3/02 DEOS
West Chester 2.5 817 PM 3/02 DEOS
Chester Springs 1.6 930 PM 3/02 DEOS
Warwick 1.3 930 PM 3/02 DEOS
Glenmoore 0.7 930 PM 3/02 DEOS

...Delaware County...
Wayne 9.0 600 PM 3/02 Elevation 500 FT
Newtown Square 7.0 700 PM 3/02 Social Media
Media 6.0 700 PM 3/02 Social Media
Thornton 5.6 625 PM 3/02 Social Media
Lansdowne 4.4 825 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Springfield 4.3 800 PM 3/02 Social Media
Broomall 3.2 350 PM 3/02 Social Media
Chadds Ford 2.2 645 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Lehigh County...
Salisbury Twp 4.1 700 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
2 S Emmaus 4.0 430 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
S Allentown 4.0 620 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Lehigh Valley Intl A 3.7 700 PM 3/02 ASOS
1 S Allentown 3.5 344 PM 3/02 Meteorologist

...Monroe County...
Coolbaugh Twp 23.6 800 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Tobyhanna 20.0 510 PM 3/02 Broadcast Media
1 NE Bossardsville 7.1 930 PM 3/02 Social Media
Pocono Summit 7.0 255 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Bartonsville 7.0 715 PM 3/02 Social Media

...Montgomery County...
Bryn Mawr 8.5 550 PM 3/02 Social Media
Lansdale 5.5 645 PM 3/02 Social Media
Graterford 4.4 730 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Wynnewood 4.3 430 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
King of Prussia 2.3 800 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Gilbertsville 1.3 730 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Northampton County...
Hellertown 6.0 400 PM 3/02 Social Media
Bethlehem 5.6 330 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Cherry Hill 5.5 1020 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Easton 4.3 700 PM 3/02 Social Media
Martins Creek 3.2 700 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Philadelphia County...
Pencoyd 2.5 330 PM 3/02 6ABC Studios
Somerton 2.0 415 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Fox Chase 1.8 545 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Philadelphia Intl Ai 1.5 700 PM 3/02 ASOS
Philadelphia 1.4 700 PM 3/02 Philadelphia OEM

Spotter Reports
National Weather Service New York NY
917 AM EST Sat Mar 03 2018


NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
Franklin Lakes 5.1 700 PM 3/02 Public

...Essex County...
West Orange 3.5 730 PM 3/02 Public
Cedar Grove 2.5 1150 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Passaic County...
West Milford 8.3 440 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Ringwood 7.2 745 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Bloomingdale 1.1 830 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

NEW YORK

...Orange County...
Monroe 14.0 900 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Greenville 9.0 600 PM 3/02 1,200 ft elevation
South Blooming Grove 8.0 555 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter
Blooming Grove 5.3 1109 AM 3/02 Trained Spotter
1 NNW Cornwall On Hu 4.0 700 PM 3/02 CoCoRaHS
Mount Hope 1.0 805 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

...Putnam County...
3 N Fahnestock State 10.3 700 AM 3/03 CoCoRaHS
Mahopac 7.6 700 PM 3/02 Public
3 S Fishkill 3.5 659 AM 3/02 CoCoRaHS

...Westchester County...
1 ESE Putnam Valley 5.0 530 AM 3/03 CoCoRaHS
Armonk 2.7 600 PM 3/02 Public

 

[WhiteBus]

Calling complete BS on the Trevous "trained spotter" Always the highest in the local area. Even on cars in this area no one had an inch. It snowed a long time but most areas had nothing that stuck on grass and at best a coating.
Again not the big story anyway as I have no electric and it looks like days until Im back. So much for being in a delvelopment with everything under ground but is fed by normal above ground wires.
One thing weird was temps at work in a concrete jungle were lower than at home over the 3-7pm time frame. And I was back and forth several times.
Anyway, hope everyone is safe.

 

[RUJohnny]

I’m at kalihari water park in the poconos. Dumping snow, white out conditions. Power out at hotel, pitch black, no food, no lights, guests borderline rioting, it’s a zoo. Absolutely insane. No one can leave because of the conditions and it’s getting nuts here. This is wild

I hate that place. Please update me and say it's being burned to the ground .

 

[Knight Shift]

...Monmouth County...
Freehold 4.7 700 PM 3/02 Social Media [pfftt]
Colts Neck 2.6 745 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

 

[DJ Spanky]

Again not the big story anyway as I have no electric and it looks like days until Im back. So much for being in a delvelopment with everything under ground but is fed by normal above ground wires.

Dude, hope ya get your power back soon!

 

[WhiteBus]

Dude, hope ya get your power back soon!

Thanks.
The one big positive is that I'm going to have a big ass BBQ Monday as most of my freezer is loaded with great meat. Other than that it sucks.

 

[RU848789]

...Monmouth County...
Freehold 4.7 700 PM 3/02 Social Media [pfftt]
Colts Neck 2.6 745 PM 3/02 Trained Spotter

You do know how friggin' lucky you just got on our bet don't you? Those bands just west of Philly or just east of 95 could've just as easily been over NB, but no, lol. Haven't seen their official number but I'm sure it's less than 1". Still have next week with two decent chances at snow...

 

[OTBOTOR]

Looks like nothin’ if you’re south/east of 287.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201803030234-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

 

[RocktheRac]

Nothing stuck here in Hillsborough especially on grass and cars.

 

[bac2therac]

You do know how friggin' lucky you just got on our bet don't you? Those bands just west of Philly or just east of 95 could've just as easily been over NB, but no, lol. Haven't seen their official number but I'm sure it's less than 1". Still have next week with two decent chances at snow...

next week...I see upper 40s and rain? looks like you guys keeping moving the timefram to an 11 day storm...lol

 

[TM514]

I can verify the 5.5" for Lansdale, PA. The rte 309 corridor from Lansdale to Quakertown got slammed.

 

[gmay8]

I hate that place. Please update me and say it's being burned to the ground .

Update, for those who care, completely snowed in. Parking lot not touched, hundreds of cars buried, no plows, no power, no restaurants or food items, tons and tons of kids here, the entire parking area is jammed with snowed in cars and cars that got stuck trying to get out. It’s like a scene from a movie. My wife is breastfeeding and we left our baby at home with in laws, so she can’t pump because no power, so it’s painful as hell.
If there was a fire or medical emergency there is no way an ambulance or fire truck could reach us. This is nuts.