OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)

RU848789

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Been talking about this one in the pattern thread for a few days and now that we're 4.5 days out from the event, which would start late Friday night or very early Saturday morning and go through Saturday afternoon, we're seeing the global models all showing a major winter storm, in general, with most of them (not all) also showing a significant to a major winter storm for our area (Philly-NJ-NYC), thought it was time for a thread. But, as usual, being this far out, uncertainty is quite high and other solutions (snow to rain or mostly out to sea that are much less snowy are still very possible.

Today's 6Z (1 am EST data inputs) and 12Z (7 am EST data inputs) GFS runs, the last two runs of the CMC (from 0Z last night and today's 12Z run) and today's 6Z Euro ensembles and today's 12Z GFS/CMC ensembles (ensemble forecasts are often the better way to go this far out before a storm, as they take into account variations in initial conditions, which the operational model runs do not) all are showing a major winter storm for our area (major for me is over 8" of snow), while the UK continues to be offshore with a snowstorm only for SE New England. Last night's 0Z Euro was very close to being a big snowstorm for us, but was just far enough offshore to only bring minor to moderate snowfall especially SE of 95 - it showed a major winter storm from NYC and NE of there and today's 12Z Euro will be out in an hour. Prior to last night's 0Z models, we were seeing occasional runs showing a major storm for us, but more runs showing an out to sea solution, but models and forecasts always get better as we get closer to an event, so today's runs take precedence over last night's.

With regard to the uncertainty, I think earthlight (one of the best meteorologists out there, who runs NY Metro Weather) on 33andrain put it perfectly: that the setup is explosive, but fragile, meaning so many things could still go "wrong" (for snow lovers, which includes mets and almost all weather board posters), i.e., the storm could go inland a bit and bring a snow to rain scenario or could stay too far offshore, giving us maybe a glancing blow or a complete miss, depending on some fairly small changes in the evolution of the setup.

For example, a small change in the angle of approach of the northern (jet) stream energy (still way offshore in the Pacific) entering Canada and then the CONUS can make large changes in the eventual phasing of the 2 systems (the other is a southern stream system ejecting from the SW US into the GOM, which then may "phase" with that northern energy and come up the coast) or the amplification of the trough as the final storm comes up the coast. So, most pros right now think it's a given we're going to have a big storm, but it's nowhere near a given that we're going to have a major snowstorm here. But for people who enjoy this hobby and like snow, it's going to be fascinating to track and see how it evolves. For the rest, it's always best to be prepared.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2046-weather-pattern-storm-threat-discussion-winter-21-22/page/390/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56684-january-28-30th-possible-noreaster/page/11/
 

RUinPinehurst

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Woop... There it is.

I am totally ok with this one skirting western NC and saving its fury for the Tri-state area. Your turn.
 

tom1944

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The Weather Channel App on my phone says 71% chance of 1-3 inches in Clarksburg/Jackson
 

Tango Two

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Knight Shift

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The Weather Channel App on my phone says 71% chance of 1-3 inches in Clarksburg/Jackson
I don't have the time to sift through all the words, but NWS says for coastal Monmouth near the Ocean County border: "Chance of precipitation is 30%." And they have it as rain/snow for the coast near us.
 

RU848789

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And the 12Z Euro is in and it moved NW maybe 30-40 miles, so that almost all of NJ sees at least 6" of snow (extreme NW areas and SE of Philly maybe a little less), with 10" or more along and SE of 95 and more than that for NYC and especially NE of there towards LI/New England. I don't like posting maps this far out, as they're going to change and people often misuse them on social media (surprise), although they're easy to find in those weather threads I linked if you want to see them. Still a long way to go.
 

RU848789

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I don't have the time to sift through all the words, but NWS says for coastal Monmouth near the Ocean County border: "Chance of precipitation is 30%." And they have it as rain/snow for the coast near us.
TWC and any weather app right now is useless for a potential storm 4-5 days out, as they simply can't capture the nuances of what might occur in 10 words, which is why I so often quote the NWS forecaster's discussion, which goes into much more detail. And the NWS is already talking about the potential of this storm, but won't put much into a 10-word summary. Yet. Give it a day. The discussion below was from 4 am, before the 6Z and 12Z models came out showing a much greater chance of a major snowstorm here. We'll see a very different discussion at 4 pm, guaranteed.

In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential
storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure
from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the
range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging
present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with
a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will
gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves
towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis,
with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough
begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears
likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping
out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves
north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then
determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with
unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the
potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number
of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs
showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the
Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi-
cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our
region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or
Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the
hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models
displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has
generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic
runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have
several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before
we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 
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RU848789

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Latest WPC discussion from 2 pm. This is similar to what we're going to see at 4 pm from the NWS offices around here.

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 27 2022 - 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022

...Winter Coastal Storm Threat from the Mid-Atlantic to especially
New England Friday/Weekend...

Key Messages for January 28-30 (Friday-Weekend) Winter Storm:
Confidence is increasing that a significant winter storm will
create considerable impacts Friday through the weekend from the
Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast. While uncertainty continues
with the track and intensity of this system, it is becoming more
likely that it will bring significant snow, sleet, and freezing
rain to the region, including the I-95 metropolitan areas.
Hazardous travel conditions are possible due to the combination of
snow, sleet, freezing rain, and wind. Close to the immediate
Atlantic coastline, strong winds combined with high astronomical
tides may lead to coastal flooding. Please continue to monitor for
future updates as this system develops.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
 
Sep 15, 2018
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I don't have the time to sift through all the words, but NWS says for coastal Monmouth near the Ocean County border: "Chance of precipitation is 30%." And they have it as rain/snow for the coast near us.

That's all they're going to show, this far out. SOP, basically.
 

rurichdog

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There's going to be a significant storm (some models indicate a 940mb low in the Gulf of Maine!) in our immediate vicinity on Saturday. Even if it is a "miss", it bears advance warning and tracking.
 
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Joey Bags

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Will be out in San Diego Thursday through Sunday, flying out of EWR. Was planning on parking in the long term lot, what do they do if you get a big ass snowstorm? Do they close the lot in advance or do you just dig yourself out?
 

RU848789

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There's going to be a significant storm (some models indicate a 940mb low in the Gulf of Maine!) in our immediate vicinity on Saturday. Even if it is a "miss", it bears advance warning and tracking.
The lowest I saw was 946 mbar on the 12Z Euro, but whether it's 940 or 946, that's just insane. I know you know this, but for people who don't, that's a borderline cat 3/4 hurricane pressure - not that means this storm will have 111-130 mph winds, since this isn't a tropical system. TC's are usually much smaller, so that will support higher winds over a smaller area, whereas non-tropical nor'easters are very large and support high, but not crazy winds over a much larger area - about 60-70 mph.

saffir-simpson_scale.jpg


prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 

RU848789

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Will be out in San Diego Thursday through Sunday, flying out of EWR. Was planning on parking in the long term lot, what do they do if you get a big ass snowstorm? Do they close the lot in advance or do you just dig yourself out?
I'd actually consider a different mode of transport if you don't want to spend an hour or two digging out your car (if the forecast looks like a big storm on Thursday, which would mean it's getting likely) - as far as I know, all they do is plow the car pathways and that will leave some snow up against parked cars, which then might freeze solid, since they usually put salt down before the storm.
 

Knight Shift

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Will be out in San Diego Thursday through Sunday, flying out of EWR. Was planning on parking in the long term lot, what do they do if you get a big ass snowstorm? Do they close the lot in advance or do you just dig yourself out?
Corporate Airport Parking in Elizabeth (near one of the Parking Spot locations) has indoor parking. It's a bit more expensive than outdoor, but not too bad, and they provide a free car wash with indoor parking. I would favor that over the outdoor economy lots. Is lot P6 at Newark $21/day? Most off-airport lots are cheaper than that.
 
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RUPete

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I'd actually consider a different mode of transport if you don't want to spend an hour or two digging out your car (if the forecast looks like a big storm on Thursday, which would mean it's getting likely) - as far as I know, all they do is plow the car pathways and that will leave some snow up against parked cars, which then might freeze solid, since they usually put salt down before the storm.
I wouldn't want any part of that. Lyft or Uber.
 

RU848789

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Pretty cool video from John Homenuk (earthlight on the weather boards) from NY Metro Weather, showing the setup and evolution of the potential storm that might impact us, including why the setup is so "fragile" and a few of the things that could go "wrong" and lead to little to no snow - many call this a "thread the needle" event.

 
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mikemarc1

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And the first model run of the 18z suites says…what nor’easter??

Could this be starting a trend?
 

RUPete

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And the first model run of the 18z suites says…what nor’easter??

Could this be starting a trend?
I always root in that direction, but I'll never forget the model flip of the 2010 Boxing Day Storm. Numbers probably has a much better recollection of the models leading up to that one (Euro was on its own?), but I remember most forecasters saying it was out to sea and then late on Xmas eve, everything turned around with a major snowstorm on the table.

Because it was Xmas eve and the next day was Xmas, I don't think people were paying attention. The storm hit hard a little earlier than predicted on Sunday, Dec. 26 and a bunch of people were on the road in the middle of it.

The point of all this is that these models will flip a bunch all week. There are too many signals on the table for me to ignore or dismiss this.
 

RU848789

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And the first model run of the 18z suites says…what nor’easter??

Could this be starting a trend?
Every major snowstorm we've ever had in the last 20 years has seen individual model runs (and sometimes up to all of the 4 global models) "lose" a big storm for our area, although there's still a huge nor'easter on the 18Z GFS - it was just displaced about 75 miles SE, so that it only brushes our area (mostly the coast) and crushes SE New England, similar to what it showed last night at 0Z, 18 hours ago. Let's see what the models say tonight (the Euro, UK and CMC don't go out past 96 hrs at 18Z) at 0Z. This is the kind of "fragile" setup I was talking about though - not hard for the setup to fall apart. The main systems for this storm aren't ashore until Wednesday night from what I recall, so we may see a fair amount of model fluctuation until then. Hard to say.
 

RU848789

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Great video.
He's just great and a very cool, level-headed poster on 33andrain, at times - many of the best pros don't post on forums any more, as they spend more time on Twitter, which I get, with its greater reach, but Twitter just sucks as a platform for sharing info/graphics - boards are far better.
 

phs73rc77gsm83

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Corporate Airport Parking in Elizabeth (near one of the Parking Spot locations) has indoor parking. It's a bit more expensive than outdoor, but not too bad, and they provide a free car wash with indoor parking. I would favor that over the outdoor economy lots. Is lot P6 at Newark $21/day? Most off-airport lots are cheaper than that.

Yes, but I just park in the deck by Terminal C. A bit more money but very convenient.
 

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