That's the best, but at least double the price. For a few days, not a big deal. For a week, it's costly.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Well, the NWS surprised me by not saying that much about the storm for Friday night and Saturday and certainly didn't sound as bullish as the WPC. Lee Goldberg was also leaning slightly towards this being perhaps a modest system for us with it being more likely a major storm for New England. He also did a great job of showing where the 2 main pieces of energy are right now: one south of Alaska, which will move north, then come back down around the big ridge in the PacNW, through Canada and into the Plains (the northern stream piece) and the other out by Hawaii, which will head towards the 4 corners, then the GOM, where they need to "phase" in order for us to get a big nor'easter that comes close enough for snow for here. That's an awful lot to have to go like clockwork to get us a snowstorm, which is why we don't get that much snow each winter, compared to many other places. Going to be an interesting few days of tracking.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
336 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main concern in the long term forecast is a low pressure system
potentially moving through the region Friday into Saturday. Prior to
the system`s arrival, conditions overnight Thursday into Friday can
be expected to be dry with near normal overnight lows.
The low pressure system will begin forming off the Atlantic coast of
the Southeastern U.S. Thursday night into Friday. This area will be
located to the east of a deepening trough making it ripe for
development of a surface low pressure system. As the low
strengthens, it will move northward along the Eastern Seaboard.
Current guidance suggests that the center of the low will be located
off of the coast to the east of the region. However, the track of
the low is still uncertain and a trend further to the west cannot be
ruled out. If the low were to track closer to the coast, impacts
across the region would increase but again, there is still
uncertainty given the storm is more than 4 days out.
Posted on Boxing Day 2010 in a recent thread - reproduced below and the AmericanWx thread is a classic for people interested in such things...
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/5920-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-6/
One last comment: there’s always the 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard Miracle, where the models all had the storm out to sea even up to 36 hours before the event and then the 0Z models came out early Christmas morning showing a huge shift NW in the storm track and the rest was history. We were in Charlotte for Christmas visiting my mom and my sister's family. After the 0Z Christmas models confirmed the big change, I decided we were leaving a day early to get back to Jersey in time for the storm, so we left around 7 pm after Christmas dinner. Was already snowing heavily in NC, so it was a white knuckle ride for about 3 hours before we outran the storm by the time we got to about Henderson, NC. Got home around 7 am, played soccer at 8 am, napped for a couple of hours and settled in for possibly my favorite storm ever, given the tracking and driving fun, lol (we got 23-24"). I recall that was a very lively thread here - too bad we have no record of it...
First, here's what Hurricane Schwartz, a very well known TV met in Philly said on the American Weather board (the one that replaced the Eastern Weather board) just prior to going on air tonight: "I'll be on at 11 with a First Call. I'm still confused, but have to go with something. We just can't ignore this new 00z data." Basically his way of throwing up his hands and saying he really has no clue what to tell people given the model mayhem over the previous day (this was before the results from the UKMET and Euro models had come out late tonight, showing these models now coming into agreement with the GFS, Canadian and NAM models).
Second, here's what Craig Allen, another well respected pro on TV/radio in NYC just posted: ** Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS.
Goldberg and the NWS are doing exactly what they should be doing 5 days away from an event....your bias is showing big time. This is an event for sure to be watched but the models have not even been close to any continuity 10, 8, or 5 days out. What models say 5-6 days out almost never ends up being the solution
I dont know why you keep bringing boxing day up....its like the third time in a week, there is nothing to indicate this is boxing day, every storm isnt a boxing day storm, I keep seeing it on the weather forums as well. Its pure weenism.
I dont know why you keep bringing boxing day up....its like the third time in a week, there is nothing to indicate this is boxing day, every storm isnt a boxing day storm, I keep seeing it on the weather forums as well. Its pure weenism.
Coming home to a car blocked in with snow and ice is a nightmare. Use an external lot rhat has indoor parking. I’m flying out of Philly Saturday morning hopefully and do the same
Not casting any aspersions, Numbers. I thought the NWS statement at this point was well measured. It layed out what they know, what could happen, and what that means for us now with an eye towards future data. There's a certain script to follow when a government agency is tasked with alerting the public to current & future events. Amateurs with slick graphics packages can afford to push the envelope a bit more early on, kinda staking their reps in hopes of nailing it first & gaining a larger following.
JFC, RUPete asked me about Boxing Day and the model shifts, so I posted about it. And what bias have I shown? I've simply reported what the models were saying and there is no argument that at 0Z last night through 12Z today we saw significant movement towards a snowy solution for our area. Did I predict we were going to get snow? No and I actually took pains to highlight the things that could go wrong, including providing a pretty cool video that includes a lot of that. By the way, we were within 5 days at 6Z this morning, so we're not 5-6 days out and we're 2-3 days from knowing pretty well if we're going to see phasing.
My question about it was that it's very different from the WPC statements, which I just found to be odd., as the offices usually take heed of those discussions Several mets, including one former NWS guy thought the NWS AFD was not appropriate to the threat level.
Most importantly, I texted Wendy ( Hillborough Deli Milf) and she told me her back pain and sciatica is getting worse meaning some type of precip is inevitable.
Her level of pain has no correlation to the amount of precip however.
Wendy also said this is the worst her pain has been this year and she's also breaking out in a little rash on her arms which is a pre cursor to precip.
Some other weather notes:
- Hurricane Schwartz is a terrific Met. One of the few (along with Joe Cioffi) who was not afraid to buck the trend and predict a massive snowstorm in Jan 96 a few days prior.
- If Craig Allen is predicting a measurable snowstorm, then it's serious as that guy is as conservative as they come.
- Finally, Chris Dimino (ex NBC Met) is now on Channel 11 as I saw him this morning.
Her level of pain has no correlation to the amount of precip however.
Wendy also said this is the worst her pain has been this year and she's also breaking out in a little rash on her arms which is a pre cursor to precip.
Some other weather notes:
- Hurricane Schwartz is a terrific Met. One of the few (along with Joe Cioffi) who was not afraid to buck the trend and predict a massive snowstorm in Jan 96 a few days prior.
- If Craig Allen is predicting a measurable snowstorm, then it's serious as that guy is as conservative as they come.
- Finally, Chris Dimino (ex NBC Met) is now on Channel 11 as I saw him this morning.
Concerned about Doreen and the potential for the Hong Kong Hamster Cull to make it to our shores
Schwartz is good and it's good to hear Cimino is back, as he was always very good too, but Craig was my favorite for years, as he's just a really great met and a very nice guy. He used to post on the old Eastern weather board and I IM-ed him some questions before the huge March 2001 bust, and he took the time to answer them and we've communicated off and on since then - a real gent. A few years ago he said March 2001 was his worst professional moment by far.
FWIW, the 18Z EPS (Euro ensembles - ensembles are probably better at sniffing out tracks at this range) was a pretty big hit for the whole region, so certainly no 18Z "trend" yet - my guess is we're just seeing the variability that is going to naturally occur because we have significant uncertainty on the model initial conditions (the main players are in the Pacific Ocean), coupled with being 4+ days away and there's the chaos associated with numerical weather prediction, where model errors propagate and increase the further one goes out in time. It's why anyone saying they "know" what's going to happen is full of doo doo.
Doreen gets pink eye before big storms. I hope to see her soon as she loves them Italian heros in the winter but she won't come to the deli with the pink eye. .
Lee Goldberg a bit bearish on a big snowstorm. Euro Model quite bullish on a big snowstorm
Heard Claire had a nice roast beef spread on Sunday before the playoff games. Pierre from the Hillsborough Deli brought over his french dip for her
Ok folks, our storm is very much still a decent possibility after the 0Z runs tonight (7 pm EST data inputs), but uncertainty is still high and will remain so for at least the next 48 hours, until the various systems are ashore and better sampled. As mentioned earlier, this is a potentially explosive, but fragile setup, which could deliver a highly impactful major winter storm, but if any number of things don't align, a minor storm to a whiff could still easily happen.
Because of this uncertainty solutions ranging from snow to rain to a major snowstorm to a modest snowfall to a complete whiff are all still on the table. For the scenario where we get significant snow, it's slated to start late Friday evening and probably go through most of Saturday.
Below is a summary of the 0Z models - the maps are all over the weather threads I post links to and if that's too much work, just go to Pivotal and pull the model maps up - I still think it's not very productive to post snowfall maps this far out - would probably start doing so tomorrow night, especially if we see more consensus.
It is worth noting though, that there is considerably less spread among the 4 major global models than at any time to date, with no models being an absolute whiff, although 3 of the 4 show the storm a bit too far SE for major snows - but all 3 of those are pretty close to substantial hits.
- After today's 12Z GFS showed a major winter storm (8-12" or more) for almost everyone, the 18Z shifted 125 miles SE with the track and just gave the coast an inch or two; however, the 0Z moved back about 75 miles NW and gives a few inches to the 95 corridor and several to the coast.
- The CMC continues its fluctuations today: the 12Z was a major winter storm for most of our area (except less at the coast due to mixing), while the 0Z moved about 50 miles SE, looking fairly similar to the 0Z GFS with a few inches along 95 and several for the coast.
- The UK went from a whiff at 12Z, with significant snow 100+ miles east of NYC/Sandy Hook, to a minor hit for the coast with heavy snow only about 50 miles east of NYC.
- Finally, the 12Z Euro, which was a major storm along and SE of 95, moved its track maybe 30 miles NW, such that our entire area gets over 8" with the 95 corridor getting 10-15" and NYC/Jersey Shore getting 20"+.
- The ensembles for these models generally are showing tracks a bit NW of the operational runs for the GFS and CMC, which would mean more snow, while the Euro ensembles looks like its op run (big hit).
- Note that for all 4 models, at this point, we have a large, powerful winter storm capable of delivering well over a foot of snow and this means that we're almost certain to at least have high winds and potential coastal flooding issues, even if the area only receives a glancing blow from the storm. Wherever this hits hard will also likely see blizzard conditions.
- Also, note that an inland track with mostly rain for the coast/95, like 1/16, is looking very unlikely, although a coastal hugger with snow to rain for the coast is definitely possible, as is a direct major hit if we get close to a benchmark track, and we could also see minor to moderate snowfall if the storm is a bit SE of the benchmark, and a complete whiff off the coast is still possible, but looking less likely.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2046-weather-pattern-storm-threat-discussion-winter-21-22/page/440/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56684-january-28-30th-possible-noreaster/page/21/
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Yikes… that’s at $44 per day. Go on a trip for a week and that’s a big bill when you get back .
I parked in an offsite lot (Jiffy) last January during the storm that dumped around a foot in Newark. They did absolutely nothing. Barely even plowed the aisles. Fortunately @RU848789 had already started a potential storm thread, so I had packed a shovel and could dig myself and a few other unlucky souls out of the lot. It seemed as though I was the only one who had that foresight. It was a complete mess. Just pay the extra money and park in a covered lot somewhere, or take an Uber. Digging yourself out of your driveway in proper gear is much better than doing it in dress shoes and a crappy winter jacket.
And who wants to get back from a long trip and deal with that? You just want to get home.
My early call: 2-16 inches.
Yea, but being retired now I just pay it and factor it into the cost of the travel/vacation. Same with flying first class or business class. I rarely flew that way when I was younger unless it was for work but at the my advanced age, I just pay the freight. One of the few (very few?) advantages of being ancient…
I would never use Jiffy Park after what happened to Kramer and Costanza!
I'd really like to understand why you continue to spout your clueless drivel about things that you clearly don't understand.
Is it a bit? Or are you actually stupid?
There's two decks - the one that requires the short monorail ride is $38, the short term one that you walk across the street to terminal C is $44. If it's a work trip, it is well worth it to bill to your employer for the $38.
You're gonna have to dig yourself back into the driveway if you do a covered lot option, so to me the difference of Uber/train vs Covered lot is negligible. Do whichever is more cost efficient and convenient.
Lol a round trip uber from Raritan to the airport is almost as expensive as my round trip fare to San Diego. I wish i was joking.
