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OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)

12Z NAM and especially the 12Z RDPS at 84 hrs (7 pm Friday, just as precip would be starting down in the Philly/SNJ, which is the end of their runs) and earlier look much more like last night's and this morning's very snowy Euro (0Z and 6Z), while the 6Z GFS this morning moved maybe 25 miles NW vs. last night's 0Z run, bringing a touch more snow to 95 and the coast (still not a lot). For NB, for example, don't laugh but 2-16" is kind of the "forecast" or at least the range of model outcomes we have on the table. That's why making a forecast/map right now is foolish, as we're still 3.5 days from the event start (vs. today's 12Z runs).
 
All anyone has to do today / tomorrow is check with Shop Rite. The company used to receive pretty accurate updates from several weather groups. Need to know for transportation and logistics reasons. Have fun.
 
Here are the latest key messages regarding the winter storm that will likely impact portions of the Mid Atlantic (especially near the coast) and areas northeast through New England late Friday into the weekend. As much as 2 feet of snow will be possible.


272414805_4933348193375394_6062224063616647787_n.jpg
 
12z gfs moved west..not the euro but verbatim would be 3-4NW jersey growing to 6 central jersey and then 8 to the coast

Still plenty of runs to go and things can move in any direction
 
RU848789 said:
12Z NAM and especially the 12Z RDPS at 84 hrs (7 pm Friday, just as precip would be starting down in the Philly/SNJ, which is the end of their runs) and earlier look much more like last night's and this morning's very snowy Euro (0Z and 6Z), while the 6Z GFS this morning moved maybe 25 miles NW vs. last night's 0Z run, bringing a touch more snow to 95 and the coast (still not a lot). For NB, for example, don't laugh but 2-16" is kind of the "forecast" or at least the range of model outcomes we have on the table. That's why making a forecast/map right now is foolish, as we're still 3.5 days from the event start (vs. today's 12Z runs).
Click to expand...
And today's 12Z GFS just made a ~50 mile further NW shift and is not far from a major snowstorm for our region with the 6" line roughly along the NJ TPK from SNJ to NYC and up to 10" towards the Shore and several inches NW of 95 - like all the other models right not, it crushes the eastern half of LI and all of SE New England with over a foot of snow. The chances of a significant snowstorm for our area are nudging up. CMC, UK and Euro on deck...

Edit: the 12Z CMC made a 50+ mile move NW and looks very similar to the 12Z GFS with the 6" line running from Philly to Newark, with more towards the coast and less inland, but a significant to major storm. And finally, the 12Z UK made about a 25 mile NW shift vs. last night and for the first time shows significant snow for the coast (3-5") and an inch or so along 95 - still the least snowy model. All of the models are looking much closer to the Euro bomb right now. Still a along way to go, but not as long and at least a moderate to significant and maybe major snowfall is looking more likely.

The one storm this somewhat resembles right now is Jan-2015, which ended up with a foot or more from NYC and points NE, but only 6-10" for 95 and towards the coast in NJ and only a couple of inches well NW of 95. If that had been the prediction for it, nobody would've blinked, but everyone was forecasting 1-2 feet of snow for the entire region (except TWC, which forcast a fair amount less).
 
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RU848789 said:
And today's 12Z GFS just made a ~50 mile further NW shift and is not far from a major snowstorm for our region with the 6" line roughly along the NJ TPK from SNJ to NYC and up to 10" towards the Shore and several inches NW of 95 - like all the other models right not, it crushes the eastern half of LI and all of SE New England with over a foot of snow. The chances of a significant snowstorm for our area are nudging up. CMC, UK and Euro on deck...
Click to expand...

So it sounds like the prediction for those of us in Bergan county just went down. Is that correct?
 
It would appear that with respect to the Jersey Shore + about 15-20 miles inland, the models have aligned on, at the very least, a significant snowfall of 6-8".

This displeases me, as I'm fairly certain the stupid snowblower will refuse to start.
 
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MadRU said:
And hopefully someone will update us on all changes.

Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...
Weather.gov

click on the map near your county…ta da! 😉 it is called the NWS and they like do this for a living! They even have plain language messages and cool and colorful maps!

crazy huh?😎
 
hrdcorhays said:
There's two decks - the one that requires the short monorail ride is $38, the short term one that you walk across the street to terminal C is $44. If it's a work trip, it is well worth it to bill to your employer for the $38.
Click to expand...
Hear ya.
The Haynes Lot { The Parking Spot } has skyrocketed prices lately .
Probably better off parking at the Terminals for a little more vs. the inconvenience/ back wrenching rides on their dilapidated shuttle bus.
 
RU848789 said:
And today's 12Z GFS just made a ~50 mile further NW shift and is not far from a major snowstorm for our region with the 6" line roughly along the NJ TPK from SNJ to NYC and up to 10" towards the Shore and several inches NW of 95 - like all the other models right not, it crushes the eastern half of LI and all of SE New England with over a foot of snow. The chances of a significant snowstorm for our area are nudging up. CMC, UK and Euro on deck...

Edit: the 12Z CMC made a 50+ mile move NW and looks very similar to the 12Z GFS with the 6" line running from Philly to Newark, with more towards the coast and less inland, but a significant to major storm. And finally, the 12Z UK made about a 25 mile NW shift vs. last night and for the first time shows significant snow for the coast (3-5") and an inch or so along 95 - still the least snowy model. All of the models are looking much closer to the Euro bomb right now. Still a along way to go, but not as long and at least a moderate to significant and maybe major snowfall is looking more likely.

The one storm this somewhat resembles right now is Jan-2015, which ended up with a foot or more from NYC and points NE, but only 6-10" for 95 and towards the coast in NJ and only a couple of inches well NW of 95. If that had been the prediction for it, nobody would've blinked, but everyone was forecasting 1-2 feet of snow for the entire region (except TWC, which forcast a fair amount less).
Click to expand...


ah was that Juno....they predicted 18-24 region wide and we only got 4 or 5 in central jersey....need to bump that thread
 
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phs73rc77gsm83 said:
Yea, but being retired now I just pay it and factor it into the cost of the travel/vacation. Same with flying first class or business class. I rarely flew that way when I was younger unless it was for work but at the my advanced age, I just pay the freight. One of the few (very few?) advantages of being ancient…
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If you're ancient, get a handicap tag and pay $21 a day at any lot in EWR. I park in the deck by C with it and park in a regular spot. When you go to pay you call when you get to the gate and they give you the reduced rate.
 
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RU#1fan said:
Hear ya.
The Haynes Lot { The Parking Spot } has skyrocketed prices lately .
Probably better off parking at the Terminals for a little more vs. the inconvenience/ back wrenching rides on their dilapidated shuttle bus.
Click to expand...

we just used self indoor parking at Park2Go, right by Lookers. You can reserve online. Paid $125 for 5 days. Too bad it didn’t snow up here, but didn’t want the wife and kids to deal with clearing the car out after a red eye flight back.
 
bac2therac said:
ah was that Juno....they predicted 18-24 region wide and we only got 4 or 5 in central jersey....need to bump that thread
Click to expand...
The clown map to end all clown maps was my Facebook memory for today. I did not want to post it in the thread, lest someone thinks that is valid for Saturday.
 
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bac2therac said:
for some reason that thread is not available on the search...probably ended up getting deleted because of the outrage
Click to expand...
Wrong as usual. Site only goes back until 2016. And once again you reveal your character in wanting to bump a thread to make fun of the meteorologists who got it wrong. Be better.
 
bob-loblaw said:
If you're ancient, get a handicap tag and pay $21 a day at any lot in EWR. I park in the deck by C with it and park in a regular spot. When you go to pay you call when you get to the gate and they give you the reduced rate.
Click to expand...
Didn’t know that, thanks for the tip! I’m 66 and walk several miles a day along with a workout so I’m not sure—I might wait until I become more ancient or less able! Good to know, though!
 
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RU848789 said:
Wrong as usual. Site only goes back until 2016. And once again you reveal your character in wanting to bump a thread to make fun of the meteorologists who got it wrong. Be better.
Click to expand...


no the search does go back to 2015

listen there is more busts than that

mets should get raked over the coals for that...there was also a huge bust a few years back as well..might have been March


its amazing how the misses are always buried and forgotten and you never learn any perspective...why on earth wouldnt you want to revist how that went downn
 
bac2therac said:
no the search does go back to 2015

listen there is more busts than that

mets should get raked over the coals for that...there was also a huge bust a few years back as well..might have been March


its amazing how the misses are always buried and forgotten and you never learn any perspective...why on earth wouldnt you want to revist how that went downn
Click to expand...
Search for regular posts only goes back to Feb 2015 - I have some oddball roundtable archive posts from earlier than that, but nothing on the football board. I saved a bunch of pages from the Jan 2015 storm, though. I have zero issue revisiting what went wrong, which is why I posted about it above. You just want to make fun of people though, which is a childish reason to revisit the thread.
 
no I found posts from 2011 on the search, the calendar goes way back...however it is likely that the search isnt covering all the threads for some reason, a broken down search system
 
RU848789 said:
Search for regular posts only goes back to Feb 2015 - I have some oddball roundtable archive posts from earlier than that, but nothing on the football board. I saved a bunch of pages from the Jan 2015 storm, though. I have zero issue revisiting what went wrong, which is why I posted about it above. You just want to make fun of people though, which is a childish reason to revisit the thread.
Click to expand...


I know what is childish and a judge of character but I will not post it here to embarrass you
 
RU848789 said:
And today's 12Z GFS just made a ~50 mile further NW shift and is not far from a major snowstorm for our region with the 6" line roughly along the NJ TPK from SNJ to NYC and up to 10" towards the Shore and several inches NW of 95 - like all the other models right not, it crushes the eastern half of LI and all of SE New England with over a foot of snow. The chances of a significant snowstorm for our area are nudging up. CMC, UK and Euro on deck...

Edit: the 12Z CMC made a 50+ mile move NW and looks very similar to the 12Z GFS with the 6" line running from Philly to Newark, with more towards the coast and less inland, but a significant to major storm. And finally, the 12Z UK made about a 25 mile NW shift vs. last night and for the first time shows significant snow for the coast (3-5") and an inch or so along 95 - still the least snowy model. All of the models are looking much closer to the Euro bomb right now. Still a along way to go, but not as long and at least a moderate to significant and maybe major snowfall is looking more likely.

The one storm this somewhat resembles right now is Jan-2015, which ended up with a foot or more from NYC and points NE, but only 6-10" for 95 and towards the coast in NJ and only a couple of inches well NW of 95. If that had been the prediction for it, nobody would've blinked, but everyone was forecasting 1-2 feet of snow for the entire region (except TWC, which forcast a fair amount less).
Click to expand...
And the 12Z Euro is a "Mother of God" snowstorm for the whole area, with 1-2 feet for all of NJ, DE, NYC, LI and SE New England and even 6-10" down to DC/Balt. It's just a model run, but it shows the potential for this storm if all the pieces come together. Of course, the Euro was the model most were relying on most heavily during the bust of Jan-2015, so this is far from over, but certainly a significant to major winter storm is looking at least somewhat likely, as no models are a whiff now and a couple are significant and the Euro is a bomb. Going to be an interesting next 3 days of tracking.
 
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RUPete said:
I always root in that direction, but I'll never forget the model flip of the 2010 Boxing Day Storm. Numbers probably has a much better recollection of the models leading up to that one (Euro was on its own?), but I remember most forecasters saying it was out to sea and then late on Xmas eve, everything turned around with a major snowstorm on the table.

Because it was Xmas eve and the next day was Xmas, I don't think people were paying attention. The storm hit hard a little earlier than predicted on Sunday, Dec. 26 and a bunch of people were on the road in the middle of it.

The point of all this is that these models will flip a bunch all week. There are too many signals on the table for me to ignore or dismiss this.
Click to expand...
i remember that storm well. My wife had gotten me and my son tickets to see "Lombardi" the Broadway play about Vince for that day. We went into the show, a matinee, and t was just starting to snow. By the time the show ended it was accumulating fast. By the time we got home it was a blizzard with at least 6 inches on the roads.
The other thing memorable about the timing of that storm was the that we had a major construction project done on our house that fall and it was completed on the 23rd.
 
bac2therac said:
12z gfs moved west..not the euro but verbatim would be 3-4NW jersey growing to 6 central jersey and then 8 to the coast

Still plenty of runs to go and things can move in any direction
Click to expand...
Thanks for the update! Concise without any wishcasting.
 
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RU848789 said:
And the 12Z Euro is a "Mother of God" snowstorm for the whole area, with 1-2 feet for all of NJ, DE, NYC, LI and SE New England and even 6-10" down to DC/Balt. It's just a model run, but it shows the potential for this storm if all the pieces come together. Of course, the Euro was the model most were relying on most heavily during the bust of Jan-2015, so this is far from over, but certainly a significant to major winter storm is looking at least somewhat likely, as no models are a whiff now and a couple are significant and the Euro is a bomb. Going to be an interesting next 3 days of tracking.
Click to expand...

When do you think the models will start to firm up? I’ve got plans to go away for the weekend but may have to cancel to stay home and mind/tend to the fort.
 
Phi_1055 said:
When do you think the models will start to firm up? I’ve got plans to go away for the weekend but may have to cancel to stay home and mind/tend to the fort.
Click to expand...

Per several discussions last night and Mt. Holly's discussion this morning, expect model alignment to begin on Thursday morning, when the energy for these systems begin to come ashore along the Pacific coast.
 
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Bleem Phuppert said:
Per several discussions last night and Mt. Holly's discussion this morning, expect model alignment to begin on Thursday morning, when the energy for these systems begin to come ashore along the Pacific coast.
Click to expand...


yeah its going take a good probably 48 hours before a real solid forecast you can put any trust in is constructed. A shift like 50-75 miles from the euro like the gfs show could be the difference between widespread foot plus to even two feet in some spots to 4-6 inches, thats a big difference
 
bac2therac said:
yes definitely I did find some 2011 from the round table, would be interesting to see whats the earliest possible ones we can find
Click to expand...
What's the link for that 2013 weather thread you mentioned?
 
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