Hopefully if there is some significant rain on Thursday into Friday, a fair amount of the snow will already have melted from warmer temps Tues-Thurs (above 40F for most during the day) and much of the rainfall would still just be absorbed into the still substantial snowpack, especially near the coast, preventing flooding issues, but that all needs to be watched.
Was wondering where Tom went after retirement - on to Twitter fame! He's one of the best winter weather experts out there - I liked him more than Postell who replaced him on TWC, kind of. 8" is still a pretty big event for you guys - skiing must be doing well down there.
Agreed - for 98% of people in the Philly-NJ-NYC region these threads are for, the NWS forecast (and most others) was superb and where off, it wasn't off by a ton. Just look at the maps of the forecast vs. the actual - the colors line up almost perfectly, plus the forecasts of blizzards for the NJ Coast and LI verified, which is actually pretty amazing, as satisfying blizzard conditions for 3 hours is actually pretty rare. Haven't seen the actual snowfall map for NWS-NYC yet, but that forecast was also superb.
Paradoxically, the more snow you have left, the more likely most of the rain gets absorbed into the snowpack with less urban flooding, but that just kicks the urban and stream flooding risk can down the road. If there's less snowpack left, the same amount of rain may end up melting much more of it, so the total liquid runoff would increase.
I posted 1-3/3-6/6-10 on wed then bumped to 3-6/6-10/10-16 on Thu. Came up shy in my neck of the woods and busted a little low down the beach. Verified in the cities. I'll take it.
I'm used to simplifying (and often muddling) complicated scientific concepts. If only I could do as well in my work every day, I might be an overnight success! 🤣
Well done - that's a pretty good forecast to me - did you post them in this thread and I missed it? Hard to keep up with all the posts sometimes, lol. I would assume you'd agree that for the vast majority of folks, the NWS forecast was excellent. There are always going to be folks near the edges of forecast swaths who end up in a different swath, but that's not a major bust to me (like the NWS being off a bit in the northern 2/3 of Somerset and most of eastern Morris).
Niziol is on Roan Mountain, Tennessee. Given his love of winter weather, he's at ground zero to enjoy and study it, and share his insights. Just above the town of Roan Mountain, Carver's Gap is an AT trailhead that takes you north over the Roan Highlands, a spectacular hike. Hike south, up Roan Mountain itself, and you come upon Roan High Knob Shelter, the highest shelter on the entire AT.
I posted the first, not sure about the second. I think forecasters across the board did a great job with the forecast and it's messaging.
We have what seems like thousands of robins. In the summer, we have cardinals, and have seen eastern goldfinches too.
rutgerswire.usatoday.com
Friday's system is looking almost all wet by all the models, except that it may end as a period of freezing rain/sleet/snow with some accumuations possible well NW. Definitely not thread worthy yet.
