OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)

RU848789

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Are you kidding me? LOL

Now I don’t even know if it’s thread worthy to begin with.

But in all seriousness, if it rains as bad as some predict, that can’t be good.
Hopefully if there is some significant rain on Thursday into Friday, a fair amount of the snow will already have melted from warmer temps Tues-Thurs (above 40F for most during the day) and much of the rainfall would still just be absorbed into the still substantial snowpack, especially near the coast, preventing flooding issues, but that all needs to be watched.
 

RU848789

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So much wind up here, it was hard to assess. I rode the ATV around the mountain top and saw exposed road surface at points and 24" drifts at others. In sheltered spots, depth looked to be 8" or so.

More from TN:
Was wondering where Tom went after retirement - on to Twitter fame! He's one of the best winter weather experts out there - I liked him more than Postell who replaced him on TWC, kind of. 8" is still a pretty big event for you guys - skiing must be doing well down there.
 
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e5fdny

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Hopefully if there is some significant rain on Thursday into Friday, a fair amount of the snow will already have melted from warmer temps Tues-Thurs (above 40F for most during the day) and much of the rainfall would still just be absorbed into the still substantial snowpack, especially near the coast, preventing flooding issues, but that all needs to be watched.
But it could be an issue if it doesn’t melt as fast as we want?
 

Knight Shift

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From Toms River:
0a9f6ae3-baa8-4ce2-b42b-2ba97fbdbeb8-snowdh012922f.jpg
 

RU848789

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Agreed - for 98% of people in the Philly-NJ-NYC region these threads are for, the NWS forecast (and most others) was superb and where off, it wasn't off by a ton. Just look at the maps of the forecast vs. the actual - the colors line up almost perfectly, plus the forecasts of blizzards for the NJ Coast and LI verified, which is actually pretty amazing, as satisfying blizzard conditions for 3 hours is actually pretty rare. Haven't seen the actual snowfall map for NWS-NYC yet, but that forecast was also superb.

NpOL7x9.png


sPJpTTt.png

And here are the forecast and actual snowfall maps for the NWS-NYC, again showing this to be a generally superb forecast, where the misses were fairly small.

6HZgnIE.png



0TR6Nkf.png
 

RU848789

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But it could be an issue if it doesn’t melt as fast as we want?
Paradoxically, the more snow you have left, the more likely most of the rain gets absorbed into the snowpack with less urban flooding, but that just kicks the urban and stream flooding risk can down the road. If there's less snowpack left, the same amount of rain may end up melting much more of it, so the total liquid runoff would increase.
 

RUJohnny

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Yeah, the northern 2/3 of Somerset, eastern Morris and the northern half of Hunterdon all got a bit less than forecast, simply due to less precip, mostly from subsidence, as you said. Did I miss your forecast in the thread? You've been on a really good run and was curious how you did.
I posted 1-3/3-6/6-10 on wed then bumped to 3-6/6-10/10-16 on Thu. Came up shy in my neck of the woods and busted a little low down the beach. Verified in the cities. I'll take it.
 

RU848789

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Don't understand the quibbling or sniping about the forecast. As posted by #'s the forecast vs. the actual was very close in almost all areas. Don't recall a forecast panning out so well across the NY/NJ/PA/DE area this well in a long time? Pinpoint forecasts are impossible due to dry slots, blizzard conditions and other local conditions.
Well said...
 

RU848789

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I posted 1-3/3-6/6-10 on wed then bumped to 3-6/6-10/10-16 on Thu. Came up shy in my neck of the woods and busted a little low down the beach. Verified in the cities. I'll take it.
Well done - that's a pretty good forecast to me - did you post them in this thread and I missed it? Hard to keep up with all the posts sometimes, lol. I would assume you'd agree that for the vast majority of folks, the NWS forecast was excellent. There are always going to be folks near the edges of forecast swaths who end up in a different swath, but that's not a major bust to me (like the NWS being off a bit in the northern 2/3 of Somerset and most of eastern Morris).
 

RUinPinehurst

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Was wondering where Tom went after retirement - on to Twitter fame! He's one of the best winter weather experts out there - I liked him more than Postell who replaced him on TWC, kind of. 8" is still a pretty big event for you guys - skiing must be doing well down there.
Niziol is on Roan Mountain, Tennessee. Given his love of winter weather, he's at ground zero to enjoy and study it, and share his insights. Just above the town of Roan Mountain, Carver's Gap is an AT trailhead that takes you north over the Roan Highlands, a spectacular hike. Hike south, up Roan Mountain itself, and you come upon Roan High Knob Shelter, the highest shelter on the entire AT.

Our local ski resorts here are packed, yes. As are local rental homes and other lodging. BUT it's been sub-zero cold per the wind chill up on those mountain-top resorts. Today might reach freezing up top.
 
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RUJohnny

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Well done - that's a pretty good forecast to me - did you post them in this thread and I missed it? Hard to keep up with all the posts sometimes, lol. I would assume you'd agree that for the vast majority of folks, the NWS forecast was excellent. There are always going to be folks near the edges of forecast swaths who end up in a different swath, but that's not a major bust to me (like the NWS being off a bit in the northern 2/3 of Somerset and most of eastern Morris).
I posted the first, not sure about the second. I think forecasters across the board did a great job with the forecast and it's messaging.
 
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DJ Spanky

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So in year's past they had a front loader parked in our tennis court parking lot which would be used for huge dumps of snow. However, starting last year they utilize that plus 2 bobcats. So this is what I saw yesterday to handle 4 inches of snow:

jOsqnfK.jpg


The downside of this is that it is far slower clearing our whole subdivision than a couple of trucks with plows. So we're paying big money for this, and, of course, the landscaper is utilizing his trucks elsewhere to make more money.
 
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RU848789

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Actually the 0Z UK is a raging snowstorm, but it's alone in that, as the GFS/CMC show an all rain event with only some snow well north of I-84, although the Euro shows the cold air coming in fast enough for rain to snow with several inches. I do think a rainy solution is much more likely, but was having a little fun with folks with my teaser of a post, since it's pretty far out in time and nowhere near worth a thread IMO.
Friday's system is looking almost all wet by all the models, except that it may end as a period of freezing rain/sleet/snow with some accumuations possible well NW. Definitely not thread worthy yet.
 

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