3 years in a row my wife and i had to cancel our trip to Key West for one reason or another, now we are set to fly out of Philly on Saturday morning. Someone does not want us to go back there.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
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Another wintry mess Sat/Sun, 12/14-15
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Ill be putting my first write up together tonight but after the 12z euro and particularly the EPS I'm all in. Widespread 1-2' very plausible for the coastal plain, but how far west is the obvious and major question at this juncture. We're 72 hours out.
always always always take the earliest possible flight.. give up sleep for the airlines ability to get a plane and personel in overnight for the first flights of the morning.
This presumes that equipment and crews for early morning flights are positioned at the end of the day.
This is not an accurate assumption.
In reality, an airline may opt to position equipment OUT of a potentially impacted area and cancel the dependent flights out of that area, so as to avoid the possibility that said equipment & crews would be stranded, thus avoiding downstream cancellations.
Assuming you are flying American, they will have a travel advisory and allow you to change your flight for free, probably starting tomorrow afternoon. Try to be the first person on the app once it gets announced because it will be a mad dash, but you can likely move your flight up to Friday for free and perhaps even get a more desirable time. Still park in a covered lot though!
It also presumes that it is your best chance to NOT have the plane needed for your flight to get delayed elsewhere earlier that day, or to be able to finally get where it was going for the next flight tomorrow (your early morning flight).
Also.. your idea of equipment being moved out to avoid a storm ALSO affects every flight that day, not just the first flight.
First flight is generally best so the idea of ALWAYS booking it is sound. Bookings generally take place long before any forecast of possible trouble can take place.. so possible weather events should have nothing to do with it.
Yup seems like when storms get hyped up like this one this far out they usually dont pan out. Still 3 days away so who knows. Im actually looking forward to a good snowstorm.
You misunderstand the routing.
An aircraft (and crew) may start Newark-Orlando, then Orlando-Houston, then Houston-Chicago (as an example).
If a storm is expected in Newark, that aircraft would be held at its previous day's final destination (so a late night flight from Chicago-Newark would be cancelled) and the asset would be positioned directly to Orlando to resume the next day's itinerary with the Orlando-Houston leg.
This avoids the possibility that the aircraft gets stuck on the ground in Newark.
You can see this for yourself - watch video of the airport on the day of a storm and you'll see there aren't anywhere near as many planes there as would be expected. This is because the pre-storm inbound flights were cancelled and the aircraft positioned outside of the storm's radius.
The ONLY reason that "first flight of the day" is advantageous is that it affords you the opportunity to get out on successive flights, that same day, if you get booted and all other things are equal. But as a travel strategy, it does you no good if there's a severe storm expected on your day of departure - especially if that storm is supposed to begin in the overnight or early morning hours. The airlines will do everything they can to not have aircraft on the ground in the path of an imminent storm.
I should also add that the facility (EWR in this example) doesn't want aircraft on the ground in the path of a storm, either. With snowstorms, particularly, they want as few planes at the facility as possible, so as to not complicate snow removal.
The Euro map was a classic clown map, RIPE for a bust. I much prefer to use QPF output rather than snowfall maps when analyzing precip. Snowfall maps are really only useful for gauging the precip axis, the totals are a complete joke more often than not and basically just end up getting memed.GFS still not like the Euro
here is its clown map
yeah apparently alot of twitter mets are not really on board with the Euro solution...its very rare to get widespread 2feet as well, on the Euro its likely someone gets crushed but the further east you go is going to be the better chances not all of us
mt holly also was less impressed with the euro armeggadon but it was a very short disco//
Model guidance continues to depict the center of the low remaining
off the coast and passing to the east. The ECMWF shows a trend further
to the west that brings the center of the low closer to the coast.
Energy from a shortwave trough arrives downstream sooner and causes
the surface low to deepen sooner in the Euro relative to the GFS.
If this scenario were to occur, impacts would be higher across the
region. However, the operational GFS to this point has been representative
of the model consensus. The surface low remains fairly far offshore
and will pass relatively quickly to the north as it rapidly deepens.
In either case, this event can largely be expected to be snow only
across the area.
If the Euro is right, that flight is likely not happening, but if the other models are right, Philly only gets a few inches, so the flight might go. If you're able to fly out Friday that would be a much better choice - just had a couple of friends asking about that. Good luck. Love Key West.
You miss the point.. you are talking about weather events that are unpredictable given how much lead time people use to book flights.
You did mention an advantage.. calling it "the only advantage".. well, that advantage is enough in my book and makes first flight timing preferable in booking flights. of course, being NYC area based makes it more valuable in terms of business days in America.. first flights in LA headed east is unlikely that plane's first flight of the day.
Sounds like you would probably know how to look up a record fo canceled flights and actually check if first flights of the day are canceled just as often as , say, an early afternoon flight.
I can only find stories about airports and airlines delays and cancellations
That's why I only ever post the 10:1 snow to liquid ratio snowfall maps, as those give you the total precip with a very easy 1/10th multiplier. Plus, I've written tons on how bad the Kuchera ratio algorithm is - it's complete crap, apart from directionally being decent for snow ratios being higher with lower temps, but, by far the bigger factor for ratios is the snow microphysics in the dendritic growth zone, which depends on supersaturation levels, nucleation kinetics, and temperature, of course, as the crystal habit has a much bigger impact on ratios than max temps in the column (Kuchera), as long as temps in the column are below 32F (should be for this storm), so that flakes don't partly melt and aggregate.
I'm going off of my million miles and million hours spent in airports, my Commercial pilot license, etc.
I know how it works.
Airlines are going to start canceling flights INTO EWR on Friday night if the forecast turns dire.
The funniest/saddest part is that if I posted that insane Euro map, T and bac (and their minions, probably) would be all over my ass for 3 pages for hyping and wishcasting. And then T congratulates bac for not wishcasting a little after that. I don't really care about the map being posted - the hypocrisy is astounding though.
That's a shitty app - there will be no sleet in Linden, only snow, unless we see a giant surprise with an inland track.
the map needed to be posted because we need to post the outlier along with the maps show lesser...thats how its done.
and did you not read my post...for shits and giggles
the fact is any solution is on the table right now even a whiff
and did you not read my post...for shits and giggles
the fact is any solution is on the table right now even a whiff
T is a troll.
Why he isn't banned from these threads is a pretty stark comment on the quality of moderation.
stop crying, just because there is a possibility we wont have to endure 18 inches plus as if anyone wants that bullshit
Exactly. The previous folks used to thread ban him regularly, but now they let him pollute these threads.
Again.. that is not the point. How do you not see that? I have mentioned it twice now and this time makes a third and last try.
If scheduling the first flight has zero advantage.. why did you cite an advantage at all?
I am not suggesting seeing a coming storm and THEN scheduling a first flight.. I was suggesting that when you have a first flight of the day the plane is waiting at the gate. And your response is that sometimes, if there is weather, that plane might be kept someplace else out of the weather? Yeah.. AND?... that's not the point.
I applaud your superior knowledge and experience but perhaps your need to correct someone on the interwebs has prevented you from using your reading comprehension skills.
Take it up with Travel and Leisure and FiveThrityEight if you disagree with the general advice I offered.
link
Studies have shown that early morning flights are less likely to be delayed than those in the afternoon and evening. To avoid delays, it’s best to leave before 8 a.m., according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight. From there, delay times just build until they reach their peak at about 6 p.m.
Not much to be done, I reckon. The moderator known as TangoQ wouldn't dare ban his buddy.
He posted it as a joke (mock wishcasting). On the other hand, you have a long, long, long, long, long, long, long history of wishcasting, which is why you get called out all the time.
Just pointing out your hypocrisy, no tears here. I've also been the one saying how many things can go wrong with this setup and yet you're the one being irresponsibe and hyping the storm by posting that map.
I'm talking about this specific situation, you're attempting to expand that to generalities.
You told another poster that his travel plans for Saturday would stand a better chance of completion if he were to schedule his flight for first out. I pointed out that under these circumstances - a major snowstorm due to begin during the overnight hours - that does not apply because the airlines would go to every extent possible to move their equipment off-airport prior to the arrival of the storm.
It's not complicated.
Actually I misread it. Had 0 inches of precipitation Friday and 4 inches of snow Saturday. This app is better than the standard weather app for what it’s worth.
Nope, never - same for the rest of the gang. Lord of the Flies level thinking...
no I didnt hype anything...I posted it and said for shits and giggles, not sorry that english and communication like most scientists not the strong suit
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