So far only FriDAY day is mentioned on the NWS for our area with regard to accumulations.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
NO.. the first post you replied to said "always always always book the first flight of the day"
That is general advice. Again.. reading comprehension issue.
And in terms of the post I replied to.. flying out of Philly Saturday... if the storm arrives later in the day the advice would have been beneficial.. even if taken specifically.. which it clearly was not meant to since he already said he had plans to fly Saturday... right?
why can't you see you misread the initial post.. and those since.. because you wanted to correct me and share your knowledge... which was something you could have done without correcting me? Sharing what knowledge you have could ADD to the usefulness of this thread instead of just trying to correct something that need not be corrected.
5-9 inches total in Hudson County
Jersey City, NJ 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com
Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for Jersey City, NJ with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com
weather.com
Accumulations yes but....
Saturday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Of course, just like the last storm 2 weeks ago, it comes as we are hitting a high tide cycle with the highest Mon - Tue.
Ok folks, after that horrible performance at the RAC tonight, it's back to something a little less painful, lol. Let's see what the 12Z models say. Will include maps for them as they come out all in this post as it's just easier to do that way - it'll be a long post, lol. Bottom line is we kind of have a Euro/NAM major to huge snowfall camp and the GFS/UK/RDPS minor to moderate snowfall camp, with the CMC in the middle of those two camps with a significant to major (for the coast) snowstorm.
Hard to say if either camp will be right or if we'll see something in the middle like the CMC. Keep in mind, also, that we're still 3 days out from the start of precip and the two main players are still not ashore from the Pacific yet, but will be for tomorrow night's runs, plus, we're getting a couple of NOAA weather flights through both systems to try to get better initial condition data for the models to increase accuracy. Really hard to predict anything with confidence with the model spead we're seeing. 2-16" lol.
First up is the NAM, which just came out and through 84 hours (7 am Sat) it looked like the Euro bombs we've been seeing - if it had gone out another 12 hours, it likely would've hit our whole area with 12"+ of snow. Most importantly, it's modeling of the phasing of the two systems - one coming down from Canada via the Plains, associated with the northern branch of the jet stream and one coming from the Pacific across the 4 Corners and into the GOM, associated with the southern branch of the jet sstream, which then merge/phase to become one huge coastal nor'easter rounding the base of the incredibly energetic negatively tilted trough - is very similar to the Euro. This is the last frame from the NAM at 84 hours, showing a textbook snowmaker.
And here's the 18Z RDPS, which is similar to the NAM as it's a mesoscale model that only runs out to 84 hours. Unlike the NAM, this is looking more like a modest hit, but would probably only give a few inches to 95 and several to the coast after its's done. The issue here, as you can see from the surface depiction at 84 hours, is that the low is significantly futher east than the NAM, due to the fact that the northern and southern stream systems phase later, allowing the resulting nor'easter to escape more east than the NAM. This is more similar to what we've been seeing from the GFS.
The 0Z GFS, the first of the global models to come in, took a fairly significant jump of about 40-50 miles back east to where it was last night, leading to maybe an inch for the 95 corridor and several inches for the NJ coast and LI and a big storm for much of SE New Englandand nada to the NW of 95. Again it only takes some minor changes well upstream 12-24 hours into the model run to lead to significant downstream changes like this. Will be interesting to see if the GFS is on its own in moving east or if the other models also do so or if we end up with 2 camps, as sometimes occurs, which is what makes forecasting so difficult sometimes. It's also worth noting that the GFS has a known SE track bias in this time range with nor'easters.
And the 0Z CMC made a slight move west with its track vs. 12Z, leading to slightly snowier solution with 4-8" for the 95 corridor and 8-12" towards the coast and for NYC/LI and NE of there and with 3-5" NW of 95. As you might guess, the phasing of the two systems occurs earlier and cleaner than for the GFS, resulting in the eventual coastal low staying closer to the coast, as the negative tilted trough (and the interaction with the northern system) kind of "pulls" the coastal low towards the coast, not letting it escape out to sea more. In many ways this is like a blend of the last several Euro runs and the 0Z GFS and might possibly represent a more likely outcome than either. Who knows...
Next up is the 0Z UK, which has been the easternmost solution for the most part, so far, and it moved the storm track a good 75 miles east from 12Z, giving maybe an inch for the coast and nada along and NW of 95. The phasing of the two system is later resulting in the SE track offshore.
Finally, the 0Z Euro came in and it's still a major(8" or more) winter storm for all of the Philly-NJ-NYC region, but it did shift the track about 25 miles east, largely due to the trough not being as negatively tilted and less "pull" from the northern stream energy/jet, which resulted in the 12" line moving from the Delaware in NWNJ to the 95 corridor, roughly, with 8-12" NW of 95 and 12-20" towards the coast and for NYC/LI/SE New England.
Edit: adding in the 0Z NBM (national blend of models), which is supposedly a blend of mostly Euro, GFS, and CMC ensemble members, so no surprise that it looks more like the CMC, which was in the middle of the three model runs...
Hard to say if either camp will be right or if we'll see something in the middle like the CMC. Keep in mind, also, that we're still 3 days out from the start of precip and the two main players are still not ashore from the Pacific yet, but will be for tomorrow night's runs, plus, we're getting a couple of NOAA weather flights through both systems to try to get better initial condition data for the models to increase accuracy. Really hard to predict anything with confidence with the model spead we're seeing. 2-16" lol.
First up is the NAM, which just came out and through 84 hours (7 am Sat) it looked like the Euro bombs we've been seeing - if it had gone out another 12 hours, it likely would've hit our whole area with 12"+ of snow. Most importantly, it's modeling of the phasing of the two systems - one coming down from Canada via the Plains, associated with the northern branch of the jet stream and one coming from the Pacific across the 4 Corners and into the GOM, associated with the southern branch of the jet sstream, which then merge/phase to become one huge coastal nor'easter rounding the base of the incredibly energetic negatively tilted trough - is very similar to the Euro. This is the last frame from the NAM at 84 hours, showing a textbook snowmaker.
And here's the 18Z RDPS, which is similar to the NAM as it's a mesoscale model that only runs out to 84 hours. Unlike the NAM, this is looking more like a modest hit, but would probably only give a few inches to 95 and several to the coast after its's done. The issue here, as you can see from the surface depiction at 84 hours, is that the low is significantly futher east than the NAM, due to the fact that the northern and southern stream systems phase later, allowing the resulting nor'easter to escape more east than the NAM. This is more similar to what we've been seeing from the GFS.
The 0Z GFS, the first of the global models to come in, took a fairly significant jump of about 40-50 miles back east to where it was last night, leading to maybe an inch for the 95 corridor and several inches for the NJ coast and LI and a big storm for much of SE New Englandand nada to the NW of 95. Again it only takes some minor changes well upstream 12-24 hours into the model run to lead to significant downstream changes like this. Will be interesting to see if the GFS is on its own in moving east or if the other models also do so or if we end up with 2 camps, as sometimes occurs, which is what makes forecasting so difficult sometimes. It's also worth noting that the GFS has a known SE track bias in this time range with nor'easters.
And the 0Z CMC made a slight move west with its track vs. 12Z, leading to slightly snowier solution with 4-8" for the 95 corridor and 8-12" towards the coast and for NYC/LI and NE of there and with 3-5" NW of 95. As you might guess, the phasing of the two systems occurs earlier and cleaner than for the GFS, resulting in the eventual coastal low staying closer to the coast, as the negative tilted trough (and the interaction with the northern system) kind of "pulls" the coastal low towards the coast, not letting it escape out to sea more. In many ways this is like a blend of the last several Euro runs and the 0Z GFS and might possibly represent a more likely outcome than either. Who knows...
Next up is the 0Z UK, which has been the easternmost solution for the most part, so far, and it moved the storm track a good 75 miles east from 12Z, giving maybe an inch for the coast and nada along and NW of 95. The phasing of the two system is later resulting in the SE track offshore.
Finally, the 0Z Euro came in and it's still a major(8" or more) winter storm for all of the Philly-NJ-NYC region, but it did shift the track about 25 miles east, largely due to the trough not being as negatively tilted and less "pull" from the northern stream energy/jet, which resulted in the 12" line moving from the Delaware in NWNJ to the 95 corridor, roughly, with 8-12" NW of 95 and 12-20" towards the coast and for NYC/LI/SE New England.
Edit: adding in the 0Z NBM (national blend of models), which is supposedly a blend of mostly Euro, GFS, and CMC ensemble members, so no surprise that it looks more like the CMC, which was in the middle of the three model runs...
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Lee Goldberg just said it’s looking like NJ and. NYC will get measurable snow but trending east and should miss out on the biggest snows.
but said will likely change
but said will likely change
Is there a Cliffs notes version written in plain English for non weenies?
I guess a more insightful analysis.
It seems wrong to pay a guy to say, "We're only gonna get a little snow. Unless we get a lot." I'm left wanting more, ya know?
More snow?
But agree, this thread, and all of the forecasts in general have sucked and been full of equivocation.
Definitely not more snow. I'm really hoping for a miss. I'm pretty much over the whole snow thing.
And there is this helpful Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWS for Coastal South Monmouth 🤦♂️ :
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1101 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022
NJZ014-270401-
Eastern Monmouth-
1101 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Monmouth County in New
Jersey.
.DAY ONE...Through tonight.
There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Windy conditions may cause isolated instances of tree damage and
power outages on Saturday.
Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1101 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022
NJZ014-270401-
Eastern Monmouth-
1101 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Monmouth County in New
Jersey.
.DAY ONE...Through tonight.
There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Windy conditions may cause isolated instances of tree damage and
power outages on Saturday.
Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.
$$
That smells an awful like a president we once had that would preface a statement with …. Some people are saying……..
well that’s pretty much what everyone is saying. Forecasting is hard…so you have to talk trends..which is what he did. Storm isn’t even at the west cuast yet, so anyone who’s confident in the forecast is lying
No, they're all in inches - says it on the graphic title, but should also say it on the x-axis...
Latest Euro Ensembles show big snow hits for the Fri-Sat storm.. Rare to see this many hits so far out.
Well the maps show what each model is saying, but trying to divine what the actual outcome will be is nearly impossible at this point - what the models are likely showing, though, is the range of possible solutions, which is pretty damn wide, unfortunately. I think we're going to need to wait until the main players are ashore tomorrow night, I believe, plus NOAA is doing some data gathering flights into both systems and their paths tomorrow, so I think tomorrow night's runs ought to be more aligned. I hope.
The analysis he gave was insightful, though. Talked about what has to happen, where it has to happen and when it has to happen. Everything has to happen perfectly to give the area the huge snows. Right now thinking is they won’t all happen perfectly, thus us missing out on the huge snow.
No, that map is precip and it simply shows the simulated radar intensity at that time (7 am Sat), where the intensity is measured in dBZ (1 km above ground reflectivity, as per the header), where above about 20 is moderate and above 30 is getting heavy.Meant this one…
Those are inches too?
Mets are showing Nam vs Euro. Lee Goldberg trending as last night to storm being located more east and thus we get snow but measurable snows in New England. We ll see. Tomorrow is fine tuning of track and Thursday is projected measurement of snow
Thanks. It's not just your posts. The weather reports are all over the place and that is understandable. This kind of sounds like the old SNL Skit News for the Hard of Hearing:
His problem was posting a partial set of Euro ensembles (not sure why he posts sometimes), as the Euro has 52 ensemble members. Yes some are misses, but the ensemble mean is still an impressive snowstorm signal.
For those who don't know, the ensemble mean is the average of the 52 members (all run with varying initial conditions to provide sensitivity analysis), so when it shows 8", for example, that likely means the actual snowfall could be much more, since the mean has to include the members that are a miss, but if the actual storm doesn't end up being a miss, those won't be relevant and more snow would fall.
That can be seen in the Euro ensemble control run, which is kind of like the regular operational run with the actual initial conditions, although it's run at lower resolution (grid spacing), so it's likely not as accurate as the op. The control is kind of like the op and is far snowier than the ensemble mean, sinc e it doesn't have to average in a bunch of runs with no snow.
I wish it were possible to convey: i) how incredibly difficult it is to predict the weather with any accuracy, espeicially for a NE US snowstorm, which is orders of magnitude more complex than predicting sunny and warm or a few showers in 3 days and ii) how much better models and forecasts are today than they were even 25 years ago. We used to regularly get small to medium snowstorms that weren't even predicted and had major busts much worse than Jan-2015 regularly. But people would need to have a much greater understanding of math and especially probability-based outcomes than most do.
the NAM is nowhere near its range, really should be discounted this far out and again Numbers why extrapolate extra hours
gfs/ukie minor vs CMC mode vs Euro big hit.
pretty much everything is on the table
gfs/ukie minor vs CMC mode vs Euro big hit.
pretty much everything is on the table
My wife has an MS in statistics. She checks her weather app, and she knows I follow NWS updates and other sources. Our discussions about impending snowstorms are usually something like: 1. my app says it's going to snow; 2. My reply- the models are in disagreement, and it is too soon to tell.; 3. what models? 4. supermodels- seriously, the the NAM, GFS, Euro; 5. What? so is it going to snow a lot of what? 6. Beats me. 🤣
The NAM evolution the whole way through its run, well before 84 hours, matched the Euro quite closely, which is why the pros aren't discounting it, since it's not just about where it ended up. Agree everything is on the table and we likely won't have a strong handle on this until tomorrow night.
And your happiness should be their paramount concern.
Best summary out there in non-weenie language for the shore folks, @e5fdny and @knightfan7 and @koleszar (have no fear, will be firing up the snowblower Thursday morning and afternoon!) :
"It’s still too early to be sure ....there are differences in the severity of impact depending on who you put your faith in about the forecasting — i.e. the American vs. European models.
The European model suggests that a snowstorm with up to 50 mph wind gusts could potentially create blizzard-like conditions and up to two feet of snow in New Jersey and elsewhere, while the American model suggests that the storm could stay far enough out to sea that it would result in up to three inches of snow with strong winds but less severe gusts."
"In addition to the snow, coastal flooding and beach erosion are a concern for the Shore."
"It’s still too early to be sure ....there are differences in the severity of impact depending on who you put your faith in about the forecasting — i.e. the American vs. European models.
The European model suggests that a snowstorm with up to 50 mph wind gusts could potentially create blizzard-like conditions and up to two feet of snow in New Jersey and elsewhere, while the American model suggests that the storm could stay far enough out to sea that it would result in up to three inches of snow with strong winds but less severe gusts."
"In addition to the snow, coastal flooding and beach erosion are a concern for the Shore."
NJ weekend nor’easter: ‘Confidence is increasing’ of significant winter storm
There are differences in the severity of impact depending on who you put your faith in about the forecasting — i.e. the American vs. European models.
www.app.com
Who ever it was blew out his elbow and is out for the year.
Ok folks, after that horrible performance at the RAC tonight, it's back to something a little less painful, lol. Let's see what the 12Z models say. Will include maps for them as they come out all in this post as it's just easier to do that way - it'll be a long post, lol. Bottom line is we kind of have a Euro/NAM major to huge snowfall camp and the GFS/UK/RDPS minor to moderate snowfall camp, with the CMC in the middle of those two camps with a significant to major (for the coast) snowstorm.
Hard to say if either camp will be right or if we'll see something in the middle like the CMC. Keep in mind, also, that we're still 3 days out from the start of precip and the two main players are still not ashore from the Pacific yet, but will be for tomorrow night's runs, plus, we're getting a couple of NOAA weather flights through both systems to try to get better initial condition data for the models to increase accuracy. Really hard to predict anything with confidence with the model spead we're seeing. 2-16" lol.
First up is the NAM, which just came out and through 84 hours (7 am Sat) it looked like the Euro bombs we've been seeing - if it had gone out another 12 hours, it likely would've hit our whole area with 12"+ of snow. Most importantly, it's modeling of the phasing of the two systems - one coming down from Canada via the Plains, associated with the northern branch of the jet stream and one coming from the Pacific across the 4 Corners and into the GOM, associated with the southern branch of the jet sstream, which then merge/phase to become one huge coastal nor'easter rounding the base of the incredibly energetic negatively tilted trough - is very similar to the Euro. This is the last frame from the NAM at 84 hours, showing a textbook snowmaker.
And here's the 18Z RDPS, which is similar to the NAM as it's a mesoscale model that only runs out to 84 hours. Unlike the NAM, this is looking more like a modest hit, but would probably only give a few inches to 95 and several to the coast after its's done. The issue here, as you can see from the surface depiction at 84 hours, is that the low is significantly futher east than the NAM, due to the fact that the northern and southern stream systems phase later, allowing the resulting nor'easter to escape more east than the NAM. This is more similar to what we've been seeing from the GFS.
The 0Z GFS, the first of the global models to come in, took a fairly significant jump of about 40-50 miles back east to where it was last night, leading to maybe an inch for the 95 corridor and several inches for the NJ coast and LI and a big storm for much of SE New Englandand nada to the NW of 95. Again it only takes some minor changes well upstream 12-24 hours into the model run to lead to significant downstream changes like this. Will be interesting to see if the GFS is on its own in moving east or if the other models also do so or if we end up with 2 camps, as sometimes occurs, which is what makes forecasting so difficult sometimes. It's also worth noting that the GFS has a known SE track bias in this time range with nor'easters.
And the 0Z CMC made a slight move west with its track vs. 12Z, leading to slightly snowier solution with 4-8" for the 95 corridor and 8-12" towards the coast and for NYC/LI and NE of there and with 3-5" NW of 95. As you might guess, the phasing of the two systems occurs earlier and cleaner than for the GFS, resulting in the eventual coastal low staying closer to the coast, as the negative tilted trough (and the interaction with the northern system) kind of "pulls" the coastal low towards the coast, not letting it escape out to sea more. In many ways this is like a blend of the last several Euro runs and the 0Z GFS and might possibly represent a more likely outcome than either. Who knows...
Next up is the 0Z UK, which has been the easternmost solution for the most part, so far, and it moved the storm track a good 75 miles east from 12Z, giving maybe an inch for the coast and nada along and NW of 95. The phasing of the two system is later resulting in the SE track offshore.
Finally, the 0Z Euro came in and it's still a major(8" or more) winter storm for all of the Philly-NJ-NYC region, but it did shift the track about 25 miles east, largely due to the trough not being as negatively tilted and less "pull" from the northern stream energy/jet, which resulted in the 12" line moving from the Delaware in NWNJ to the 95 corridor, roughly, with 8-12" NW of 95 and 12-20" towards the coast and for NYC/LI/SE New England.
Edit: adding in the 0Z NBM (national blend of models), which is supposedly a blend of mostly Euro, GFS, and CMC ensemble members, so no surprise that it looks more like the CMC, which was in the middle of the three model runs...
6Z models are all in, except for the Euro. I have to say that last night's CMC might end up being where we end up, i.e., right in the middle of the two camps, but maybe not. The NAM is less snowy than it looked like it was going to be last night, while the RDPS is snowier than last night, as is the GFS, by a bit. I also included my favorite fairly new "model" which is the NBM or National Blend of Models, which is exactly that a blend of the models. It's just a bit snowier than last night's CMC, which looked to be in the middle of the suite.
All the other caveats from last night apply: highly uncertain forecast that is very sensitive to where and when the northern and southern stream systems start merging/phasing to produce our nor'easter that comes up the coast, as that phasing has a huge impact on the track of the coastal low, which is everythng with regard to how much snow we get. A track to the 40N/70W benchmark like the Euro, hammers us with snow, while the rest of the modesl are a bit east of that track which is mostly why they show less snow. The models should also be greatly enhanced tonight, as the systems will be on shore from the Pacific and sampled better, plus sampling will occur today from NOAA weather flights.
Edit: 6Z Euro is another snowbomb, so model mayhem continues...
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Good stuff. I think #s is like the Tony Romo of our weather weenie threads. Knowledgeable and very enthusiastic about his commentary. Entertaining and informative for most, sometimes too over the top for others. This is my go-to stop for storm information. Thanks!
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