We love that drive - did it several times back in the day, when my sister lived in Ft. Lauderdale (80s into the mid-90s), so we'd get a visit in, then go to the one place in FL I'd ever go to on purpose, lol. Love the Keys and KW in particular.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
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I don't know how helpful the comment is, but someone on the americanwx forums made a comment a few days ago that said (and I'm paraphrasing here): it is one thing to look at a static L on a model prog and decide this will mean a massive snow event. It is another thing to look at the model progress through the time series to watch where the center of the low forms, and how it gets to where it ends up in the final panel. This thing isn't forming off Cape Hatteras and making a run to the 40/70 point and bombing out; it is forming out to sea pretty far up, and then slowing & hooking everything back towards us.
My gut feeling: this will be an eastern LI and SE New England event, and a big one. I'm in Hamilton, and I'd be thrilled with 6 inches of wind blown snow that my snowblower will demolish.
My gut feeling: this will be an eastern LI and SE New England event, and a big one. I'm in Hamilton, and I'd be thrilled with 6 inches of wind blown snow that my snowblower will demolish.
seems to be the concensus at this point of time. 4-8 inches in nj is a solid early guess. With less than 4 in western sections
I’ve had no water in my house for the last 36 hours (well pump shot), and just had the pump replaced this morning. So I’m all set and ready for this storm. Plus I fired up the snowblower and it started on the first try. So I’m prepared x2. I’m doing what I can to make sure any snow is minor and counteract your unpreparedness.
Kind of. On all of the models, as far as I can tell, the southern stream low moves across the Gulf and offshore of FL and then interacts to different degrees with the northern stream shortwave (phasing), where it eventually ends up off the NC coast, but is pulled further NW towards the benchmark over the next 12 hours or so on the NAM/Euro, while it is not pulled nearly as far NW on the other models so far, resulting in the snow shield being 30-50 mlles SW of the Euro/NAM. I'm also thinking the Euro/NAM are overdone and we're more likely to get a blend solution with moderate snow for 95, signiificant snow for the coast and a blizzard for LI/New England, but that's just a gut instinct now.
the 12z GFS was horrific verbatim for snow lovers...would only see an inch or so in central jersey with more 2-3 at the coast and basically nothing in NW Jersey
No one should be putting any forecast amounts yet given we are still 60 hours away and we still have two camps. I will say the GFS is not the Goofus of old.
No one should be putting any forecast amounts yet given we are still 60 hours away and we still have two camps. I will say the GFS is not the Goofus of old.
The Japan model..not the best at all but has been constientky showing a huge storm for us, has just moved East as well and looks more like the GFS. Prospects of a huge storm decreasing, but can certainly change
I will be doing my snowblower prep after the gym.
So we should be good. At least around my area.
So we should be good. At least around my area.
It's in my post on the 12Z models on the last page, but it's worth noting here that we now have the NAM and the several previous runs of the Euro (but 12Z isn't out yet) vs. the GFS, CMC, UK, and RDPS moving east, which is not where one wants to be if you want snow. I could easily see the Euro finally moving east in 90 minutes and if that occurs, the idea for a big snowstorm for our area, at least (not for LI/New England) will be on life support - wouldn't mean no snow at all, as a moderate (2-4") to significant (4-8") snowfall would still be very possible, although it could also be a minor snowfall for most if the east trend continues. If the Euro holds serve, then consider me completely clueless on what's going to happen. Never easy to get snow in these parts, which is why we only average 27" per winter.
Edit: one other thing to keep in mind is even with a further east solution, it's very possible the GFS and other models could be off a bit on the NW extent of the snow shield, which is often seen with strong nor'easters and could turn a 1-2" forecast into a 3-5" event, for example. Here's a quote from one of the pros:
"As always one wildcard comes down to snow banding, which we won't be able to resolve until the short range depending on (1) the exact synoptic evolution and where the cyclone tracks/becomes occluded and (2) where the best frontogenesis axis sets up, but especially on the NW fringe of where the heavier snowfall is modeled I wouldn't discount the odds of a more substantial event than otherwise modeled."
Edit: one other thing to keep in mind is even with a further east solution, it's very possible the GFS and other models could be off a bit on the NW extent of the snow shield, which is often seen with strong nor'easters and could turn a 1-2" forecast into a 3-5" event, for example. Here's a quote from one of the pros:
"As always one wildcard comes down to snow banding, which we won't be able to resolve until the short range depending on (1) the exact synoptic evolution and where the cyclone tracks/becomes occluded and (2) where the best frontogenesis axis sets up, but especially on the NW fringe of where the heavier snowfall is modeled I wouldn't discount the odds of a more substantial event than otherwise modeled."
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For those of us not following the various models and maps, maybe something like "NAM is in line with the EURO in showing much less snow (e.g., less than 4"). I appreciate that you add substantive discussion to the thread, but guessing that only you, #s, the guy with the hockey player avatar, johnny 99 and a couple of others know what you are saying. Thanks for listening.
Yikes. Do you do your own engine prep?
I do mine, and it has been an exercise in frustration.
Rebuilt the entire carburetor - replacing the 3 main needle/nozzle/valves. One of them was extremely difficult to remove, but got it. When I was at the small engine shop, the counter person suggested just buying an entire new carburetor, as it is less trouble and effort. Fifty bucks. Sounded good. I put installed their new carburetor an the engine would not run for more than 5 minutes. I finally rebuilt the old carburetor, and last time I started the snowblower, it ran well. Hoping it holds up.
Hope your injury heals soon.
Why limited details regarding the potential winter storm Sat? Well, the average model error at this time range (3 days out) is over 150 miles. For example, where will the rain/snow line setup? 150 miles could range from Cape Cod, MA to New Haven, CT. 150 miles will mean the difference between 18 inches and 3 inches for New York City.
No, no, no.
If you DON’T want it to snow you PAY for the prep/tuneup before the season starts.
Translation: Your guess is as good as ours. We don't have a clue!
Accuweather percent chances for snow amounts are a bit funny or weird
Right now:
Northern NJ
Less than 4 inches. 20%
4-8 inches. 26%
8-12 inches. 27%
12-18 inches. 21%
Kind of hard to figure where we will wind up, all stats fairly even
Right now:
Northern NJ
Less than 4 inches. 20%
4-8 inches. 26%
8-12 inches. 27%
12-18 inches. 21%
Kind of hard to figure where we will wind up, all stats fairly even
See below - 12 bucks on Amazon.
Nah, he could use these.
I feel pretty confident that my old buddy @RUScrew85 could get his hands on a couple of buoys.
I hate tall bridges with short guardrails. Light the Havre-de grace stretch on 95 with just Jersey Walls on the sides. The trip over the Sky Bridge in Tampa (for the bowl game) really screwed me up. No kidding. My hands shook for years after that experience where I actually had to plan to drive around tall bridges. I'd go south via I-81 West vs. I-95 to avoid that spot. I'm good now.
The fall off the keys bridges would be really low and you just swim to an island or support. (IF that helps lol).
i agree, i love the drive, have done it a couple times but the wife says 2x is enough so we were going to fly direct. I have no problem doing it a 3rd time
you would probably not be surprised but I still have a bunch of notes from Mrs Screw on your Key West trip. I always use them as reference when we go.
I thought I had finished the job last Spring. The first storm of this year, the snowblower ran well enough for half the driveway, until it started surging and stalling. That led to the recent adventure.
PAY? 1-too cheap 2-like fixing things myself 3-doing engine work gives me some street cred at the station, bc my day job does not. 😉
I hate them too. I can go over them but I don't have to like it. But I disagree on the low bridges. I'm sure a shark would get you if you fall off the KW bridge. And adding in the Chesapeake bridge tunnel. If you go over the side of that one you got a long swim/walk to shore. No thanks to being anywhere I'm not at the top of the food chain. ; )
Yeah I want to go back once this covid thing is over and travel is back to normal. We just drove back from FL a couple of weeks ago so I'm not into a car trip for a while. KW is great.
So as posted else where 0-18". LOL
ETA: How do they even decide 4-8 is only 1% less likely than 8-12. That's got to violate some significant digit rule somewhere in the model.
C'mon man.
how’d you get over the bridge phobia? there are a couple that just dont dig. that feeling of dread suuuuuuucks
The service operated by the Delaware Memorial Bridge folks (they'll drive your car over the bridge for you) gets several hundred hits per year.
thats the main one i avoid, too much pride to use the service, instead use Commodore Barry. its not great but better than DMB
Several suggestions that worked for me when I was younger(I was terrified of heights as a kid):
1. Get a summer job as an external house painter and spend your summer working on rickety ladders with a power washer/paint brush to clean/paint 2-3rd floors.
2. Volunteer to join the army and jump out of perfectly good airplanes.
Easy peasy. :)
You mentioned fear of heights. These guys had no fear in 1929. Great footage. Must be before OSHA.
seriously the Tydings Bridge near Harve de Grace - what were they thinking with those tiny barriers. I feel bad for anyone whose car breaks down there.
It's such a nice view on that bridge, I hope they don't spoil it w/ larger barriers. A shoulder would be a good addition though, I agree with you on that.
there is still NO WAY IN HELL I WOULD EVER DO THAT.
yes, i am yelling. I would jump out of an airplane a million times before I would agree to standing on a beam with no safety equipment.
My daughter thinks this is all funny, she has absolutely no fear of heights. she figured out I still did when she was 8 and I took her on the London Eye ferris wheel. Basically big clear pexiglass capsules a couple hundred feet off the ground. She was leaning against the curved pexiglass looking down all relaxed and excitedly said, "Dad, come over here and look at this". after a few secs of me not joining her, she looks back at me, standing in the center of the capsule and says "What's wrong Dad?" She still giggles about it and she graduated RU last year.....
