OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
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I make sure were driving in the center lane. I'm not bad enough to hide on the floor. LOL
There's one in Texas that I would NOT drive over. Over Galveston Bay maybe?
why are you putting out these amounts, there are models that have way less as well.
Figuring out whether this is just 1-3 or a 6-10 or somewhere in the middle is still in question right now
Get that weather stuff out of here. This is now a fear of bridges thread!
I can see the DMB from the end of my parents’ street, I have nightmares about that bridge at least once a month.
Time for the 12Z model thread (7 am EST data inputs - supposedly the 2 systems were somewhat onshore and sampled with this run). Let's see which "camp" is favored if any. Well, the first volley is from the NAM and we just got NAM-ed as many weenies say, as the NAM is an absolute bombogenesis nuke. The map says it all - and it's still snowing at the end of its run at 7 pm Sat. More to come...
The 12Z RDPS (similar to the NAM as it's a high resolution, mesoscale, short range model that only goes out 84 hours) says no way to the NAM, lol. It actually moved the low about 25 miles east, so it's just a moderate snowfall for most.
Well, the great divide continues, as the 12Z GFS actually moved about 25 miles east of where it was at 6Z, meaning even less snow for our area - just a minor snowfall for 95 and a moderate snowfall at the coast. The hope of having things more aligned this morning is kind of gone, lol.
And the CMC shifted a good 25 miles east with the low, significantly decreasing snowfall for our area vs. 0Z last night. We now have the NAM and the several previous runs of the Euro (but 12Z isn't out yet) vs. the GFS, CMC and RDPS moving east, which is not where one wants to be if you want snow.
The UK actually moved west about 25 miles, but its starting point was the furthest east of the models last night, so it ends up being just a little less snowy than the GFS/CMC, i.e., it's minor to a miss for 95 and minor to moderate for the coast.
And while the 12Z Euro certainly moved east vs. 0Z and 6Z, it still is a significant snowstorm for the 95 corridor (4-8") and a major snowstorm just SE of 95 to the coast (7-10") and for NYC, while the eastern half of LI and SE New England get crushed with well over a foot of snow. Now we try to figure out what happens. Certainly the models are closer to each other now, so a blend would likely give something like 3-5" for 95 and 5-8" for the coast and 1-3" NW. Waiting on the NBM (national blend of models) to update.
12Z summary: The NAM is a bomb and the Euro is a significant/major storm (4-8" for 95 and 7-10" towards the coast), while the GFS/UK/CMC/RDPS are all minor to at best moderate for 95 (1-2/2-4") and moderate/significant (2-4/3-6") for the coast. All of the models moved east vs. earlier, except the NAM and the UK (which was an east outlier). Now we try to figure out what happens.
Certainly the models are closer to each other now, so a blend would likely give something like 3-5" for 95 and 5-8" for the coast and 1-3" NW. Waiting on the NBM (national blend of models) to update. But that's based on current modeling and we're still 60 hours from the start of the storm (late evening Friday vs. 7 am this morning data inputs), plus the two main players were not fully sampled at 7 am, but will be for the 0Z model runs tonight, plus we'll have weather flight data to incorporate, so I still think we won't see much consensus until 0Z tonight, at the earliest. So, we track, as they say on the weather boards.
2:10 edit: here's the latest 12Z NBM (national blend of models) map, which is more bullish than I would have expected based on my comments above. We'll see of course...
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the euro is not awful verbatim but the tick to the east is concerning since the gfs is so far east. They will give out some preliminary snowfall totals tonight but I do not think we will fully have a good read untl tomorrow afternoons models, thats when if there is caves or consistency you will see the confident predictions start coming out
would you like to see the latest raw roast beef pics the Hillsborough Deli just sent me on text alert
Cause it’s my guess.
Totally get it is in question..and I’m not a pro so we will see how I land. Viewing weather boards and watching tv Mets discuss, this would be my guess,
All that's left is for an 18z or 6z lurch westward to provide the weenies with a False Dawn, and the circle will be nearing completion.
Do the drive once if you feel like it. But for any further trips pay the extra and fly directly into KW. If you are staying local you might not even need a rental car. Wife and I just get an uber from the KW airport and rent bikes the rest of the time
If you or others have never read MesoBanding's Guidebook to the Phases of an East Coast Snowstorm, pasted below, give it a read. It's pretty accurate and hilarious, at least to us snow lovers. We're clearly in Phase 4: The Weenie Suicide Phase, The Mid Range...
https://www.33andrain.com/guidebook-ecs/
A Guidebook to the Phases of an East Coast Snowstorm
As we step into the morning of a nice snowfall for many, I thought I’d recap the phases we all just went through in an effort to remind ourselves how these play out. Every. Single. Time. But like watching your favorite comedy or horror movie – you’ll still laugh or cringe with each step along the way. We can’t help ourselves. It’s in our DNA.
Phase 1: The Long Range.
It has to originate somewhere, right? Usually someone will post a long range fantasy map of the GFS that shows a raging blizzard. You’ll see words like BECS, HECS, MECS and SECS thrown around at 360 hour maps. Deep down, we all know the odds of verification are less than the odds that some of you won’t be in your mom’s basement on Friday night – but yet you still believe. You just know this is the one time the globals sniffed something out that, via the Butterfly Effect, is likely a ripple in the atmosphere picked up by two eskimos humping in Siberia to keep warm. We track.
Phase 2: The King Phase.
Once we get to 240 hours, invariably there will be an 0z run when most of you are sleeping when the Euro, The King, spits out a solution like the above for the same eskimo humping ripple. But now we’re inside 10 days AND it’s the almighty Euro. THIS is it. THIS is the one that’s going to go 10 straight days without moving. But guess what asshats – it’s not a cutter – so it’s going to move 1,323 times before it gets here, if it ever does. We track harder.
Phase 3: The Long-ish Range Phase.
Somehow, someway – ALL of the models have shown the storm as a bomb at some point by about 180 hours. We’re getting closer. But we’re not. Not at all. But some knucklehead posts a CMC map that shows 54” of snow as a maxima and weenie’s weenies (or weenie-ets) are moving involuntarily. The GFS follows with a bomb a cycle or two later and some have full fledged boners (and even ‘jokingly’ post about it). The Euro, however, has refused to show the bomb it showed at 240 and stays nauseatingly off shore but close enough to know it will find its way back. Then – at just about 150 hours, the Euro decides it sees the storm again at 0z on a Tuesday night. The late night coverage was minimal, but by morning you have to sift through 345 pages of verifications that, indeed, the King showed our bomb. We rejoice. We track. We set ourselves up invariably for…
Phase 4: The Weenie Suicide Phase, The Mid Range
This is the phase that happens every time. Every. Single. Time. But it’s just as painful for all of us. Every model has shown our bomb by this time – and then every single model loses it out to sea – seemingly all at the same time! How? Why? What life choices could I have made differently so this didn’t happen? Why do cutters always cut? F*ck the Midwest. What good is snow for the ocean and fish? The GGEM sucks. The GFS is garbage. The Euro is NOT the same since it’s upgrade. This is the phase when you’ll get to learn all about the models of the world – our very own “Weenie Model Universe” contest. There’s a French Model; German; Korean; Japanese; and a Tanzanian. These get yanked out from places on the internet that will probably freeze your computer and offer you real porn (but you X out of that because you’d rather look at the model than that in case it shows our bomb again). Remember this: In the Mid Range, the JMA will stay amped; the NAVGEM will show a couple of bombs; the GFS will be so stubborn you want to bomb NCEP; and the Euro will likely stay fairly consistent with it’s solution. It’s also at this point some knucklehead starts posting the long range NAM, SREFs and RGEM – even though it’s like driving to work with Stevie Wonder at the wheel. You may get there, but your odds aren’t very good. Many will exclaim that they give up but we all know you’ll be there at every model cycle. Spirits are down, relationships with spouses are on the fritz, drinking picks up and children are neglected – until…
Phase 5: The Short Range and the NW Trends
Despite all of the heartache leading up to this point, this always happens. ALWAYS. The storm you saw at 240 on the Euro and on all the models at the Mid Range at some point – starts its inevitable NW climb. It’s never an all out bomb again. No, no, no weenies – it’s a slow and gradual change. A ‘tick’ as most of you would say. “The GFS is a tick NW but, aloft, it should have been better.” “The Euro is NW again but there should be room for more movement our way given the look of H5.” “The Jet Streak on the NAM begs for a deformation band on top of our heads. Still time.” “The German ticked West along with the French” (really? Who gives a flying donkey f*ck). It’s at this point that you’re happy again. You kiss your wife or girlfriend. The air smells fresher. You say hi to all of your neighbors while walking the dog. You even pick up their dog’s sh*t. Then, the day/night before the storm, the short range models like the NAM and RGEM show an all out hit. Meanwhile, the level-headed professionals at the NWS and other outlets get the snot kicked out of them by weather forums around the world. “What are they doing!?!?!” “Can’t they see what the RGEM just did?” “People are going to die at the hands of the NWS. Blood. Yes, blood, is on their hands.” Weenies post snow maps. There are contests for gift cards. Donations to the boards per inch (all of a sudden, because it’s going to snow, weenie’s normally tight wallets are like mini ATM machines). It is the eve before the snowstorm that you’ve tracked so tirelessly for 10 days now and there is bound to be a ‘Weenie baby boom’ 9 months from this night – our next generation of trackers are smaller than a snowflake and look like microscopic tadpoles – but they’ll be on these boards soon enough and neglecting to read this sage advice: Something is about to happen overnight….
Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks
You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that!
But guess what? The models are going to be right and someone who thought they would see snow will be smoking cirrus. For most, it may just be a slight cutback – but it doesn’t feel like it. It’s the final gut punch of this wild ride but, alas, for most it will snow and will be beautiful and all of the above will have been worth it.
So the next time we start tracking one of these bad boys from 360 hours out, give this a read and know it will evolve this way to a degree every single time.
Cheers,
Steve (Bombogenesis / Mesobanding)
Over the years, I've come to realize there's a distinction between being afraid of heights and being afraid of death-defying exposure in which a single wrong move could send you plunging hundreds or thousands of feet to sure death.
I quite like heights, and bridges don't bother me, but I find exposure, as in your photo, viscerally terrifying.
I'm generally OK with heights. Being at the end of a 100 foot fire department ladder truck with the ladder extended all the way on a windy day can be a bit nerve wracking.
I have seen that before - incredible footage, but difficult to watch at times.
My Bete Noire
Redirect Notice
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You're finally at the end of the monstrous experience of driving across the San Mateo bridge, when
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It doglegs for another few miles of terror.
Enjoy the ride.
Loyal
Well, prep insofar as digging it out from behind other stuff in my garage, firing it up and making sure it's running, and parking the cars to either side a bit farther part to make room.
But I take it for service every couple/few years.
Thanks regarding the injury. Back stuff which doesn't really heal, but PT will hopefully mitigate recent symptoms. My past is catching up to me. 🙂
So, there really shouldn't be some of the Weenicide I am seeing on the American Weather board. They will likely get decent measurable snow out of this. They need to stop being greedy.
The updated NWS hourly localized graphic forecast data now has a "predicted" 4 inches for Wall/Manasquan from Friday evening through 7 a.m., with Saturday morning still not predicted.
Yeah, but you don't understand weenies. They want feet of snow every storm and will whine bitterly, especially when they see heavy snow in any model and it doesn't verify. I want big snow, too, but I know it's fairly rare in these parts, so I try to think of what can go wrong and not get too excited until we have a good consensus 24-48 hours out. We've actually had more big snowfalls in the last 25 years than the previous 100. as 7 of the 9 biggest NYC snowstorms (and for NB/95 too) have been since 1996, which is crazy, since this period hasn't been particularly cold - timing is everything - and snow lovers under about 35 have been incredibly spoiled, not knowing the very lean decades.
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf
Not sure if we'll see NWS maps for the whole storm at 4 pm or 4 am, given the huge range/uncertainty...
You forgot...
3. Drive tanks through tall structures, collapsing them, thereby eliminating some of those scary heights out there.
Ooooh! That looks like wicked fun.
Could get a lot of air at the top of that bad boy right there, mm-hm.
I love Top Gear. They have done so many skits with Tanks and fighter planes, but the home demolishing one with the remote control mine flail was one of the best.
I actually love heights, the higher and more precarious the better. I have countless fun "height" stories.
Back when I was around 12, a friend and I needed the fire department to pull us out a very tall and thick tree. We got stuck about 15 meters up.
We, very stupidly, climbed to the top of a neighboring smaller tree, jumped from the top of that tree over to a wide branch from the larger tree, then hand-over-handed along that branch, and finally slid down one of the 3-way forks in the larger tree's trunk to where the fork was (that was about 15 meters, according to the FD).
That's when we finally realized there were no more branches at all in the larger tree below us. We couldn't slid back up the fork we'd slid down because it was too wide to wrap our arms even halfway around. So we were completely stuck. Doh!
But it wasn't scary at all. It was actually a very fun adventure for us, for the most part. Only bad part for us was having to pee after a while. Okay, another not so great part was getting yelled at by my friend's dad, who was less than pleased by the giant gouges the ladder truck put in his side and back yards.
Looking back as a semi-adult today, I can see that what we did was fairly insane. But we did that sort of crap all the time.
Of course, you jumped out a perfectly good airplane. Which is pretty insane itself. 😀
In Scotland, sheep often find exposure viscerally terrifying, too.
Why do the Scots wear kilts? Because sheep can hear a zipper a mile away.
(I know, I've told that one before. But it never gets old.)
That's one of those posts that cause my brain to violently short-circuit due to the onset of far too many innuendo-derived, wholly inappropriate, responses slamming into my mind all at once. 😀
Did you guys hear it? That was the collective sound of winter weather weenie screams across the nation, as the 18Z NAM went from a huge snowstorm at 12Z, just 6 hours ago, to nada for everyone and very little, even, for New England - NC/VA coast is the jackpot, like last week's storm. You almost have to see the maps together to realize the magnitude of this change. Stay tuned...
Can't make this stuff up. Don't even know what to say other than maybe this is a blip, but if not, it would be very unusual. Last weekend's NC/VA snowstorm looked like it might give decent snow to our area about 5-6 days in advance, but by 4.5 days out all of the models had moved to a minor snowfall for SENJ at most and that's what happened. This time - if the NAM is right - we're talking about a massive shift 54 hours ahead of the event. Crazy.
Can't make this stuff up. Don't even know what to say other than maybe this is a blip, but if not, it would be very unusual. Last weekend's NC/VA snowstorm looked like it might give decent snow to our area about 5-6 days in advance, but by 4.5 days out all of the models had moved to a minor snowfall for SENJ at most and that's what happened. This time - if the NAM is right - we're talking about a massive shift 54 hours ahead of the event. Crazy.
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At first glance, I missed the part about it being probabilities. I was thinking: "73 damn inches of snow? I should've gotten the snow-blower serviced in the Fall".
I was just wondering what sort of probabilities the Hillsborough MILFs are giving for seeing more than 6"?
(@Bleem Phuppert 😁)
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