OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
If my dog barks for more than a minute I bring him inHere's a fly in the wild card ointment. I generally get along with my neighbor. But they constantly leave their dog out in the back yard for long stretches, and he howls away, sometimes for more than an hour. It's maddening- we have a fairly large yard (almost 1.5 acres, mostly woods in the back), and one of the reasons we bought the house was not having to deal with issues of neighbors being too close. When the barking reaches the 45 minute mark, I usually send him a polite text asking to bring the dog in, and he obliges. As I type this, the dog is barking away. What is a reasonable amount of time (in minutes/hours) and how many times a week is reasonable to put up with this?
Despite this, I will go over and try fix the guy's snowblower for free. Am I a good neighbor? Should I bring Sling Blade with me to fix the snow blower and the dog? @Bleem Phuppert ??
Well, no idea what to do with the 18Z NAM going from blizzard to cirrus, especially since the 18Z RDPS was just unchanged from earlier (it's a 2-4" event for 95 and 3-6" for the coast and 1-2" NW), but the NWS just came out with their snowfall maps, which did not include mention of the 18Z NAM, so take these with a grain of rock salt, i.e., I'm pretty sure the maps would show less snow if they had seen the 18Z NAM - even before the NAM, I was thinking 1-3" NW, 3-5" 95 and 5-8" towards the coast. These are pretty close (although a bit less) to the NBM (national blend of models) map I posted earlier.
Well, the NWS-NYC dismissed the 18Z NAM for what it's worth, which is why they went with the NBM model blend, which is still quite high (see below), plus the rest of the 18Z suite looks similar (GFS/RDPS) to slightly better (Euro) than it did at 12Z. I feel like I've been saying this for weeks, but I've always felt tonight's 0Z model suite, which will have the full RAOB (radiosonde balloons) initial dataset in place for the first time, with the two main systems over land, plus the NOAA flight data ingested, will be when we hopefully start to see some model consensus. We'll just have to see in a few hours. The rest of the 18Z runs are below, fwiw.
However, the 18Z NAM is an eye opener as it has
shifted well east of the area with no measurable precipitation. This
scenario seems unlikely at this time. Due to the large uncertainty
and bouncing around of the guidance, we are running with a model
blend approach. Should this eastward trend continue with subsequent
runs, snowfall amounts will trend down.
FWIW, I consider "appropriate barking" to be a crucial component of a dog's training. It helps to get a breed that isn't mouthy to begin with. Smaller dogs tend to bark more than larger dogs. They're also harder to train, generally. Also they're pointless.
Yeah, and will mention it to him again. He is not really the problem, it's his wife. They are nice people, but seem to forget their dog is outside. Our house sits much further back from the road and is pretty much in line with where the dog hangs out and barks. Have always maintained that for the most part, there are not bad dogs, but bad dog owners.
As Mister Rogers would say- "Won't you be my neighbor?"
Will bring this up again with the guy and say that something has to change. BTW- dog is still howling away, time to send a text message.
If you had to call it-how much snow in the Asbury Park-Belmar-Manasquan coastal area?
you wouldn't need turbochargers if it was an electric plane. maybe elon can build an electric one for you to try out.
Almost always, lol. 75% of the time, there's more NW and 25% of the time there's more SE and <10% of the time there's more along 95 (new math, lol)...
Somewhere between 10" and just the tip.
I'm not fully on board with the eastward shift, yet. I'm gonna let that play out for another couple of model runs and see where we land.
Too damn cold for the dog to be out. He/she wants to hang with the humans. That really pisses me off. Do the best you can.
Interesting factoid: An electric airplane and a gas turbine-powered airplane have the same number of moving parts.
FWIW, there are electric planes in development.
Wow, we agree again: my thoughts were 3-5" for 95, 1-3" well NW and 5-8" towards the coast - based on what we've seen - not sure if you saw it, but the NWS essentially dismissed the NAM as an outlier and is going largely with the 12Z NBM which I posted earlier - which is on the high end because it still included the 12Z NAM - I'm ok dismissing the 18Z NAM, but they probably should've dismissed the 12Z NAM in making their NWS predictions. And perhaps they did, as their map is still less than the NBM, but not by a lot. 0Z has all the input data, though, so hopefully we see some consensus. I don't think the little/no snow scenario plays out, but I also don't think we go back to huge snows - somewhere in-between is my guess.
Report the mf. Sorry. Leaving a dog out in the frigid cold is criminal.
Seriously Shift. You're a good dude please don't look the other way on this. Man's best friend. Be that dog's.
11 pages for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is already a bust?
Maybe, but look at all the topics discussed - it’s what makes this community great.
If my dog barks for two seconds, I make an appointment with a psychiatrist.
Glad I check this thread every now and then!Yup. Just another:
Nor'easters are always fun because the predictions are way ahead of the storms development.
But typically they do develop, it's merely a question of the track.
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Now going back and forth via texts--he is not home. I started walking over to the neighbor's house and no cars in the driveway, assuming nobody was home. Finally, dog is inside. Told him something must change, or we are going to the town, which has a dog barking ordinance. Really hate to go in this direction, but this has been going on for over a year. Multiple times each week--early in the morning and sometimes late at night.
I will just say you will get more than me. The coastal areas will do pretty good with this until its a total whiff. Not ready to make a prediction just yet.
well doesnt seem like they consider the gfs which has only 1-2 and has been pretty consistent. I think tomorrow they will adjust down to 2-4 but probably no lower if the euro holds serve but is on its vs the other models
A few years back we got new next door neighbors. Nice enough people, young couple with a little kid. And an old black lab. Which the wife would toss out of the house before 6AM and after midnight. Which would cause said dog to bark. A lot.
I let it go on for a couple of months, until one night when I happened to be outside around 1AM because we had just gotten home and... You get the rest.
As it happens, she was outside with him at the time, so I called her over to the fence and simply said, "I'm sorry, but it's the middle of the night and Cujo, there, is waking up the neighborhood. I'll ask you to try and keep him quiet. The psycho bitch on the other side of you, there, is just gonna call the cops."
Another neat trick is "Good dude bad wife". We've been doing that forever. I do it with contractors, I do it with landscapers, I do it with car dealers. It's just something like, "Ya know, this sort of thing... I don't really get too spun up about it. But the wife? Holy shit, dude, she's about ready to take f*ckin' hostages or something. I mean, really... Probably best to just do what she wants, ya know?"
Never fails.
It sucks to be put in that position, but you are doing the right thing- no doubt about it.
Screw him and the outside cat dikheads with cats that shit and piss in neighbors gardens (btw if the owners put a sand/ litter box outside that wouldn’t happen… hint your neighbors would hate you less). I have to spray all of my mulch with peppermint and lemon oil to keep the rat cats out. These folks are saying to their neighbors screw you I don’t care if my annoying animals bother you, they don’t bother me. I have a neighbor with both. His dogs are outside whining on and off (not barking) for hours a day in all weather, including today (it’s hard for folks that work/school from home).
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There are people who will go and rescue that dog if needed. It's one thing to have it barking at night in the summer. Another to be left out in the winter. Thats a crime.
If you need any insight pm me or let me know and I'll give you an email address to reach me.
Thank you for stopping this nonsense. Hopefully your town takes this stuff seriously. If not. Do what I said above.
I'm retired and I'm feeling supporting animals is my calling.
Please tell me this is wrong.
Probably accurate. That’s the highest possible amount. This is very unlikely
0z NAM moved significantly west but still has a tight gradient ranging from under an inch nw jersey to 2-4 central jersey to 6-8 towards the coast
Remember at 18z it was giving most nothing
Remember at 18z it was giving most nothing
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