Thanks for the info as always numbers!
Cheering for the NAM!
Cheering for the NAM!
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Did you guys hear it? That was the collective sound of winter weather weenie screams across the nation, as the 18Z NAM went from a huge snowstorm at 12Z, just 6 hours ago to nada for everyone - maybe a dusting at the coast and very little, even for New England - NC/VA coast is the jackpot. Can't make this stuff up. Don't even know what to say...
Well, things can still change. But we may owe a collective thanks to all the people who've serviced their snow-blowers or changed their travel plans.
This is all odd. Normally I'd be dying to get several feet of snow. Just not this winter.
This is all odd. Normally I'd be dying to get several feet of snow. Just not this winter.
Guessing you are not far from The Pork Roll Store in Allentown. They have store made pork roll and pork roll hot dogs. Have you been there, and if so, is it worth a 30 minute trip?
I am about 15 miles away. I have never been there but I have a friend in Allentown. I will ask him
To be fair, it would be appropriate to say "the other children" because I'm pretty childishly fond of all the MILF posts in the weather threads. I've grown responsible, mostly. But I've never grown up. 😀
I probably should (grow up). But I don't wanna!
It's hard to decide who are my favorite people right now. You, #s, or the Nam folks.
If it holds I think I will deserve some credit since we postponed my birthday party scheduled for Saturday.
12Z summary: The NAM is a bomb and the Euro is a significant/major storm (4-8" for 95 and 7-10" towards the coast), while the GFS/UK/CMC/RDPS are all minor to at best moderate for 95 (1-2/2-4") and moderate/significant (2-4/3-6") for the coast. All of the models moved east vs. earlier, except the NAM and the UK (which was an east outlier). Now we try to figure out what happens.
Certainly the models are closer to each other now, so a blend would likely give something like 3-5" for 95 and 5-8" for the coast and 1-3" NW. Waiting on the NBM (national blend of models) to update. But that's based on current modeling and we're still 60 hours from the start of the storm (late evening Friday vs. 7 am this morning data inputs), plus the two main players were not fully sampled at 7 am, but will be for the 0Z model runs tonight, plus we'll have weather flight data to incorporate, so I still think we won't see much consensus until 0Z tonight, at the earliest. So, we track, as they say on the weather boards.
2:10 edit: here's the latest 12Z NBM (national blend of models) map, which is more bullish than I would have expected based on my comments above. We'll see of course...
Well, no idea what to do with the 18Z NAM going from blizzard to cirrus, especially since the 18Z RDPS was just unchanged from earlier (it's a 2-4" event for 95 and 3-6" for the coast and 1-2" NW), but the NWS just came out with their snowfall maps, which did not include mention of the 18Z NAM, so take these with a grain of rock salt, i.e., I'm pretty sure the maps would show less snow if they had seen the 18Z NAM - even before the NAM, I was thinking 1-3" NW, 3-5" 95 and 5-8" towards the coast. These are pretty close (although a bit less) to the NBM (national blend of models) map I posted earlier.
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My buddy says it's great. Impeccably clean and very nice people.
He used to get a PEC sandwich every week and also get a tenderloin often for dinner
There's a wild card. May neighbor thinks I am a small engine repair whiz because I got my own snowblower going. He asked me this morning if I could take a look at his snowblower which has not been able to get started and running for the past two winters. I just provided him the NAM update, and I have a feeling he is going to bank on that for no snow. If he elects to not get his snowblower running, it could be a worse case scenario for us!
A birthday party deferral is strong mojo. Might've been foundational in this potential snowfall bust.
BTW, I'd like to help out with your indecision on choosing favorite people. I suggest skipping right past those pedestrian options you listed above, and choosing the much more obvious favorite person.
Namely me. 😁
You're always near the Top but just like the PGA, once in a while an outlier will move up but at the end of the year, cream rises to the top.
Now if you can do something about coastal flooding you'll reestablish your top spot a lot quicker.
Now this is how the real professionals due it (nice and balanced):
Attention then turns to Friday Night into Saturday as a significant coastal storm develops, still 60 hours away. The peak time frame of concern is from about Midnight into Saturday Afternoon. Confidence remains high that further east into Long Island and New England see a blizzard with 12"+ snow, while further west into PA will see little or nothing. In between, there will be a sharp gradient. We continue to favor seeing snow, but more of a graze than a direct hit. That leaves a decent chance to be plowable, but low chance for major totals in the double digits. That will come down to the exact track of the storm. Regardless of the amount of snow, temps will turn sharply colder through the 20s and eventually teens during the event and winds will increase. We'll provide more details tomorrow, and continue to update going forward.
You didn't cite the source. Plagiarism is a sign of a weak mind.
It's tough transitioning from pure troll to meaningful contributor. We need to be supportive of him in his efforts.
Seeing as how I've irresponsibly brought up the hillsborough MILFs, which I know you causes you minor irritation, I'm thinking that link could be a retaliatory rick roll. I'm gonna have to ponder this before clicking. 🙂
Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not all out to get me, you know.
I had a boss a long time ago that used to say that a lot. Decent enough guy. Fellow pilot, we used to take out the company plane (Piper Malibu Mirage) once in a while.
Too bad his paranoia didn't prompt him to double-check his fuel levels before that last flight. I mean, if he believed me when I said the tanks were full, is that my fault?
You would never waste a perfectly good plane like that.
Anyway, that would fall more under the good habits rule than the paranoia rule, IMO. Because humans are error prone. And good habits can help insulate us from the three M's (mistakes, mischief and malice).
If he couldn't be troubled to do a complete pre-flight check, that would be on him.
Perfectly good airplane. Pffft. That airplane caused me Great Concern on one occasion.
You'll appreciate the mechanics of the whole thing. The 'bu had a turbocharged 350 hp engine and was pressurized, with a service ceiling of about 25,000'. Or maybe a little more. But it was at 25,000' that the turbo blew, instantaneously reducing our 350 hp to about 210. What happens then is you pretty much fall out of the sky, down to about 8000' or so.
That would suck a whole lot. Even if you knew control would resume upon reaching a low enough altitude, it would still seriously suck on the way down.
Did maintenance logs show the plane was maintained correctly? Just an unexpected part failure? Because if it was a maintenance failure, once I cleaned up in the bathroom back at the airfield, I'd be on the warpath for whoever screwed up.
Exactly why I laugh at all of the postulating in these threads days in advance - as much science as there is, my experience is that it’s all just a wild ass guess until the flakes start and you can watch the radar - and even then it’s subject to huge swings.Did you guys hear it? That was the collective sound of winter weather weenie screams across the nation, as the 18Z NAM went from a huge snowstorm at 12Z, just 6 hours ago, to nada for everyone and very little, even, for New England - NC/VA coast is the jackpot, like last week's storm. You almost have to see the maps together to realize the magnitude of this change. Stay tuned...
Can't make this stuff up. Don't even know what to say other than maybe this is a blip, but if not, it would be very unusual. Last weekend's NC/VA snowstorm looked like it might give decent snow to our area about 5-6 days in advance, but by 4.5 days out all of the models had moved to a minor snowfall for SENJ at most and that's what happened. This time - if the NAM is right - we're talking about a massive shift 54 hours ahead of the event. Crazy.
My takeaway is it might snow significantly
on Friday/Sat - so keep watching the forecast and think about preparing if that could impact you.
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You’re welcome (for those who really DIDN’T want this)…Did you guys hear it? That was the collective sound of winter weather weenie screams across the nation, as the 18Z NAM went from a huge snowstorm at 12Z, just 6 hours ago, to nada for everyone and very little, even, for New England - NC/VA coast is the jackpot, like last week's storm. You almost have to see the maps together to realize the magnitude of this change. Stay tuned...
Can't make this stuff up. Don't even know what to say other than maybe this is a blip, but if not, it would be very unusual. Last weekend's NC/VA snowstorm looked like it might give decent snow to our area about 5-6 days in advance, but by 4.5 days out all of the models had moved to a minor snowfall for SENJ at most and that's what happened. This time - if the NAM is right - we're talking about a massive shift 54 hours ahead of the event. Crazy.
It’s a gift. What can I tell you?🤷♂️
The 18z euro similar to 12z..4-6 central nj...about 2-4 nw nj and 6-10 at coast. Its really on its own for the higher totals still
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Here's a fly in the wild card ointment. I generally get along with my neighbor. But they constantly leave their dog out in the back yard for long stretches, and he howls away, sometimes for more than an hour. It's maddening- we have a fairly large yard (almost 1.5 acres, mostly woods in the back), and one of the reasons we bought the house was not having to deal with issues of neighbors being too close. When the barking reaches the 45 minute mark, I usually send him a polite text asking to bring the dog in, and he obliges. As I type this, the dog is barking away. What is a reasonable amount of time (in minutes/hours) and how many times a week is reasonable to put up with this?
Despite this, I will go over and try fix the guy's snowblower for free. Am I a good neighbor? Should I bring Sling Blade with me to fix the snow blower and the dog? @Bleem Phuppert ??
Fix the snowblower, not the dog. I am a card carrying dog lover, so my recommendation is to fix the neighbor for leaving his dog out like that. Thank you kindly! All kidding aside, you’re a good dude for doing that.Here's a fly in the wild card ointment. I generally get along with my neighbor. But they constantly leave their dog out in the back yard for long stretches, and he howls away, sometimes for more than an hour. It's maddening- we have a fairly large yard (almost 1.5 acres, mostly woods in the back), and one of the reasons we bought the house was not having to deal with issues of neighbors being too close. When the barking reaches the 45 minute mark, I usually send him a polite text asking to bring the dog in, and he obliges. As I type this, the dog is barking away. What is a reasonable amount of time (in minutes/hours) and how many times a week is reasonable to put up with this?
Despite this, I will go over and try fix the guy's snowblower for free. Am I a good neighbor? Should I bring Sling Blade with me to fix the snow blower and the dog? @Bleem Phuppert ??
Well, first of all the descent is totally controlled. It's just very rapid, on account of the cabin pressure system immediately shuts down when the engine caution lights come on. I think we did the first 15,000' in about 2 minutes. But there was no real question about maintenance or reliability or anything - it was well maintained, practically new and sometimes, as you know, turbochargers just decide all on their own that it's time to pack it in. Shit happens, ya laugh about it later. :)
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