48 hours out from what should be the peak of the storm and nobody has a reliable forecast yet. Crazy.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
The 6z euro was east and continued to cut back totals. To 2-6 from nj with more to coast
The GFS has been pretty consistent throughout with its easterly solutions. Would be dangerous to toss
Somerset not including in the warnings because the main two models are giving them from 1 inch on the gfs to 3-4 inches on the euro
this one has runs to go. The 3 runs today huge. The forecasts right now are low confidence but i wouldn't say off target
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Bac and #s. Snowblower in the basement. Dont mind shoveling 2 inches…
not far from 287 and 78 intersection
I think 2 years ago (maybe 3) made it the whole winter without it
not far from 287 and 78 intersection
I think 2 years ago (maybe 3) made it the whole winter without it
I thought that phase was more like the bargaining phase of grief?
That's it, that's what I really meant. Thank you. My coffee cup still has a ways to go before I see the bottom of it.
12z nam was 2-6 inches north of 95 with tight gradients and 6-12 to the south with amounts increasing the closer you get to the coast
Basically in line with current mt holly forecast and snowmap almost 100%
Basically in line with current mt holly forecast and snowmap almost 100%
Hoping the "take it to the bank" is the kiss of death! No offense to #'s, we just hope for opposite outcomes with snow.
So you said above "low confidence." Have you changed your mind already, or you want to see the runs today?
I edited my post before you posted yours..don't want to be caught in a gotcha moment ..i reread again and he said take it to the bank in relation to forecast numbers and watches going up.
I want to see runs today and even tonight. Particularly if the euro continues to tick east and the gfs continues to hold firm.
The NAM solution is quite possible
I say low confidence because the variablity in tge models the last few runs. Even Mt Holly touched on this in their disco
If this storm keep away for the most part, thanks to all for their reverse snow karma rituals. 👍
Time for bed, but before that, the 6Z NAM was a decent amount snowier along and NW of 95 and for the coast and for NE of NYC by an inch or two almost everywhere.
In addition, as expected, the NWS-Philly has issued winter storm watches for the 95 corridor from DE to Middlesex for 4-9" of snow and for the NJ/DE coasts for 6-12" of snow, but the counties NW of 95 were not included, but still might be (most surprised Somerset isn't included). And the NYC office issued watches for Hudson, NYC and LI for 6-12", but did not include Union, Essex, Passaic and Bergen, but those may be added too. New snowfall maps are below and they're pretty close to what they were at 4 pm, with maybe an inch or so shaved off a lot of places NW of 95 and the rest staying mostly the same.
The 6Z RDPS/RGEM also was a touch snowier than at 0Z, as per below.
And here's the 6Z GFS, which made a modest move towards the model consensus, by moving NW about 40 miles, brining 2-4" to the coast and about an inch to 95 (was almost a complete whiff at 0Z).
And finally, the 6Z Euro shifted a fair amount east (later phase of the two systems lets the coastal shift east and gives less precip for our area also), which has caused massive depression among the weenies, as that's not a good sign, as snowfall amounts went down considerably vs. 0Z. This would only be a 3-5" event for 95 and 5-8" for the coast and 1-3" NW.
Just woke up to more model mayhem, lol. I'll repeat what John Homenuk/earthlight said a few days ago and keeps repeating: this is an extraordinarily explosive, yet fragile setup with a very high ceiling and a very low floor (meaning, for example, anything from 1-12" or maybe even a wider range for 95 still being on the table). Anyway, the 6Z runs showed more snow from the RDPS/NAM and the GFS shifted west substantially (but it was an outlier to the east and still only gave 2-4" coast and an inch or so for 95), while the Euro, which had been rock solid for days on at least 6" for the 95 corridor (and sometimes more), shifted east a decent amount producing only 3-5" for 95 (5-8" coast/1-3" NW). With that as preamble, let's see what happens with 12Z today.
And we're off, with the 12Z NAM shifting east a bit with the surface low, but having a more expansive precip shield so its snowfall was about identical to the 6Z/0Z NAMs with about 4-8" for 95 (~6" on 95), 7-11" for the coast and 2-4" 20+ miles NW of 95. Should be another interesting day of tracking.
Next up is the RGEM/RDPS, a mesoscale short-term model (basically the Canadian version of the NAM), which is about the same pretty snowy solution as it was at 0Z and 6Z, showing 5-8" for 95, 7-10" for the coast and 3-5" NW.
First global model of the 12Z suite is the GFS, as usual, and it's a slight tick NW with the low and the snow, relative to 6Z, with the 1" line right along a line from Philly to NYC, with the 95 corridor being about 0.5-2", and with about 2-4" towards the coast and not much NW of 95. Still the least snowy model, but not a giant outlier anymore, as it wouldn't take huge changes for the other models to move to a GFS solution and it wouldn't take a huge shift for the GFS to go much snowier either - that's the "fragility" of this volatile setup.
The 12Z CMC shifted a bit east (seems like the trend so far at 12Z), but is still a significant snowstorm (5-8") for 95 and major for the coast (7-10"), but moderate for NW (3-5"). And the UK, after one run that was snowy last night, is back to a GFS like east solution, with only 1-3" for most of 95, 3-4" for the coast and an inch or so NW (and it has been really bad this winter).
And finally the 12Z Euro which is almost a carbon copy of 0Z last night and much snowier than 6Z, with 4-7" for 95, 7-10" for the coast and 2-4" for NW, so the mayhem continues.
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Good that you edited that, thanks. Don't need to get in arguments about what I said - I only guaranteed watches would go up for the 95 corridor and the coast, but maybe not NW, which is exactly what we saw. Agree on the low confidence forecast as I just posted (and have been posting). This one might end up being a nailbiter until the flakes are flying.
I can deal with a 4-8 event - it's winter and it's gonna snow. You clear it and things are back to normal in a couple of hours. It's the 18-24 and up events that truly suck.
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If using 10:1 ratios, yes, if using 12-15:1 ratios, which are very likely, given how cold it will be, almost everyone in NNJ, except maybe Sussex/Warren, gets to 6" on the NAM. I don't like showing the Kuchera snow to liquid ratio maps as the algorithm sucks and I like knowing the frozen mass that falls (easy with the 10:1 ratio, but no idea with Kuchera as it doesn't "show" the liquid precip equivalent), but it's at least directionally correct, so for this post, will show both the 10:1 and Kuchera ratio 12Z NAM maps side by side to illustrate my point.
I think this guy does a nice job of explaining it in this short accuweather video. .
i would hold off relying on kuchera and note any wind is going to effect that ratio, not to mention the nam is almost always overdone with qpf
a shift in 50 miles could be the difference in the from all of NJ getting 6-12 and 12 plus at the coast and a 1-3 system with 6-8 at the coast.
good discussion here based on last night models and he talks why the gfs is so far east and has to do with energy in florida at about 6:15 but the whole thing is a good listen
I love to drive, have driven many things many miles and never had any issues. I've gone caving many times and I've repelled down 200' cliffs. This thing just came out of left field driving over that Tampa Sky Bridge in a CRV. They had the traffic pushed right due to construction and being up high in right lane I was looking right over the edge. My hands started to shake so bad and I felt like I was pulling the steering wheel to go over. Slowed down to like 30 with flashers then had to deal with all the tailgating and horns and nasty people. That lasted for about 5 years but only high bridges with low walls. Del. Memorial, GWB, Verrazano , etc no issue.
But as I said earlier..I could feel the anxiety just building as I got closer to Havre de Grace and that wind warning sign. The recently new one on the Route 1 Expressway going down thru Delaware is a mini version. Same there. Has the support cables in the middle and nothing on the sides. Nothing to keep you in. THAT was the recipe for me. YIKES. I actually had my wife put her hand on the steering wheel from the passenger seat. HOW EMBARAASING for me. But its over and I drive them all the time now no issue.
Anywho. To answer your question. It just took time and went away little by little as I got the confidence back. I'd drive in the inner lane. I'd breathe . And I wouldn't take my eyes off the road 10-15 feet direct in front of me. Would make sure no 18 wheelers behind me to push me off. Just a bunch of little things. Maybe even a little generic Zoloft (don't recall). As I also mentioned I'd do pre-trip planning to map out less stressful routes and eliminate surprises. Became a pre-game routine but it worked.
My apologies to the weather guys for putting this all in here in their thread but I'm glad to hear I wasn't the only one and hoping it helps somebody else.
Meant to post this before, as it is one of the best AFDs (area forecast discussions) I've ever seen from the NWS, as it dives deeply into the model mayhem, discussing the volatility/fragility of the setup nicely.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1044 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Major winter storm possible for much of the region Friday
night and Saturday...
It has been a live-or-die-by-every-model-timestep sort of night here
at the office. And what the models give, they also take away, which
basically describes the model variability we have seen the past
couple of days with the potential winter storm for our region Friday
night and Saturday. The 00z suite has made a notable consensus shift
westward with the low tracking just off the coast, but the high
volatility/variability remains. The 00z GFS is a far-east outlier
solution and basically brings little snow to the CWA for the whole
event. Meanwhile, the 00z NAM returned the snow to our area, in a
large return of departure from the 18z NAM no-show (no-snow) event.
The 00z CMC brings a blockbuster storm to the area, with widespread
warning criteria south and east of the Fall Line; the 00z ECMWF is
only somewhat drier than its 12z predecessor run. The 00z UKMET went
sharply west, with meaningful QPF/snow for much of the area.
The model volatility with this system has been something to behold.
Such run-to-run spread is typical/expected for these types of
events, given the highly complicated interdependent phenomena
involved. However, simple analysis of the spread in the National
Blend of Models is enlightening; the 04z NBM V4.0 (V4.1) 50th
percentile storm total snow for the Philly area was around 1.5 (1)
inch(es). The 75th percentile storm total snow was around 8 (10)
inches, or roughly an order-of-magnitude difference between the
median and the upper quartile. Bottom line here: the storm total
snow forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to large changes
in subsequent forecasts.
Observation-wise, it will be critical to assess three
regions/phenomena as the event unfolds: (1) the strength/depth,
orientation, and speed of a northern-stream digging vort max through
the Midwest on Friday morning, (2) the orientation and speed of a
southern-stream vort max in the southern Plains around this same
time, and (3) the low-level response to the phasing trough near/off
the Southeast coast Friday night (e.g., the 850-mb heights and
winds). The progressive solutions have a more compact and faster
northern-stream vort max and a slower southern-stream vort max,
which results in upper low development farther east (and generally
too far east for our region to see substantive snow); the snowier
solutions acquire phasing and neutral to negative tilt of the large-
scale trough more quickly (and thus, farther west). Trends in the
low-level response are obvious Friday night -- the NAM/CMC (aside
from the errant 18z NAM simulation) are positioning the 850-mb
low/trough farther southwest. The GFS is much noisier, exhibiting
little trend. Notably, the 00z GEFS featured unusually low spread,
which makes me wholly suspicious of the deterministic and ensemble
output from its suite.
With the model camps making the GFS more and more of an outlier,
tonight`s forecast is generally a non-GFS consensus blend. This
preserves a considerable amount of continuity to fields of
importance such as PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts. The main changes
were to sharpen the gradient of snow totals near/northwest of the I-
95 corridor, with 1-3 inch totals northwest of the Fall Line, 3-6
inch totals in the urban corridor and immediately adjacent areas,
and 6-12 inch totals roughly from Easton, MD, to New Brunswick, NJ.
Again, there is enormous uncertainty with these forecast totals. If
the more progressive solutions pan out, very little snow may occur
in a large chunk of the area. If the slower/stronger solutions pan
out, heavier totals would occur at least to the Fall Line. Continue
to monitor the forecasts, as large changes may occur leading up to
the event.
Based on the forecast totals, we have issued a winter storm watch
for all of Delmarva, far southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of
central and southern New Jersey from 7 pm Friday to 7 pm Saturday.
Will fine-tune the timing once warnings/advisories are issued, but
this is the general time window of concern for our area.
Other impacts and forecast considerations...
Winds will be a big factor with this storm, with north winds of 10
to 20 mph becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph on Saturday. Gusts of 30
to 40 mph will be common, with higher gusts possible (especially
near the coast and in the higher elevations). With snow falling for
much of this time, very low visibilities and blowing snow are
possible. Conditions may become very hazardous near the coast on
Saturday.
Wind chills will drop well below zero across the area Saturday night
as northwest winds remain quite strong. Advisory conditions (wind
chills at or below -15) are probable in the southern Poconos and far
northwest New Jersey.
Dry air advecting into the region from the northwest on Saturday
will likely make for a rather abrupt cutoff to the snow. A sharp
gradient in snow totals is possible if this dry air is stronger than
already forecast. This only increases uncertainty with snow totals
northwest of I-95, in particular.
There may be some light snow or a wintry mix on the front-end of the
event on Friday afternoon into the evening. Models remain quite
variable with this potential. Impacts with this are expected to be
limited. The primary period of more substantial precipitation (snow)
is expected to be after the Friday evening rush.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1044 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Major winter storm possible for much of the region Friday
night and Saturday...
It has been a live-or-die-by-every-model-timestep sort of night here
at the office. And what the models give, they also take away, which
basically describes the model variability we have seen the past
couple of days with the potential winter storm for our region Friday
night and Saturday. The 00z suite has made a notable consensus shift
westward with the low tracking just off the coast, but the high
volatility/variability remains. The 00z GFS is a far-east outlier
solution and basically brings little snow to the CWA for the whole
event. Meanwhile, the 00z NAM returned the snow to our area, in a
large return of departure from the 18z NAM no-show (no-snow) event.
The 00z CMC brings a blockbuster storm to the area, with widespread
warning criteria south and east of the Fall Line; the 00z ECMWF is
only somewhat drier than its 12z predecessor run. The 00z UKMET went
sharply west, with meaningful QPF/snow for much of the area.
The model volatility with this system has been something to behold.
Such run-to-run spread is typical/expected for these types of
events, given the highly complicated interdependent phenomena
involved. However, simple analysis of the spread in the National
Blend of Models is enlightening; the 04z NBM V4.0 (V4.1) 50th
percentile storm total snow for the Philly area was around 1.5 (1)
inch(es). The 75th percentile storm total snow was around 8 (10)
inches, or roughly an order-of-magnitude difference between the
median and the upper quartile. Bottom line here: the storm total
snow forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to large changes
in subsequent forecasts.
Observation-wise, it will be critical to assess three
regions/phenomena as the event unfolds: (1) the strength/depth,
orientation, and speed of a northern-stream digging vort max through
the Midwest on Friday morning, (2) the orientation and speed of a
southern-stream vort max in the southern Plains around this same
time, and (3) the low-level response to the phasing trough near/off
the Southeast coast Friday night (e.g., the 850-mb heights and
winds). The progressive solutions have a more compact and faster
northern-stream vort max and a slower southern-stream vort max,
which results in upper low development farther east (and generally
too far east for our region to see substantive snow); the snowier
solutions acquire phasing and neutral to negative tilt of the large-
scale trough more quickly (and thus, farther west). Trends in the
low-level response are obvious Friday night -- the NAM/CMC (aside
from the errant 18z NAM simulation) are positioning the 850-mb
low/trough farther southwest. The GFS is much noisier, exhibiting
little trend. Notably, the 00z GEFS featured unusually low spread,
which makes me wholly suspicious of the deterministic and ensemble
output from its suite.
With the model camps making the GFS more and more of an outlier,
tonight`s forecast is generally a non-GFS consensus blend. This
preserves a considerable amount of continuity to fields of
importance such as PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts. The main changes
were to sharpen the gradient of snow totals near/northwest of the I-
95 corridor, with 1-3 inch totals northwest of the Fall Line, 3-6
inch totals in the urban corridor and immediately adjacent areas,
and 6-12 inch totals roughly from Easton, MD, to New Brunswick, NJ.
Again, there is enormous uncertainty with these forecast totals. If
the more progressive solutions pan out, very little snow may occur
in a large chunk of the area. If the slower/stronger solutions pan
out, heavier totals would occur at least to the Fall Line. Continue
to monitor the forecasts, as large changes may occur leading up to
the event.
Based on the forecast totals, we have issued a winter storm watch
for all of Delmarva, far southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of
central and southern New Jersey from 7 pm Friday to 7 pm Saturday.
Will fine-tune the timing once warnings/advisories are issued, but
this is the general time window of concern for our area.
Other impacts and forecast considerations...
Winds will be a big factor with this storm, with north winds of 10
to 20 mph becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph on Saturday. Gusts of 30
to 40 mph will be common, with higher gusts possible (especially
near the coast and in the higher elevations). With snow falling for
much of this time, very low visibilities and blowing snow are
possible. Conditions may become very hazardous near the coast on
Saturday.
Wind chills will drop well below zero across the area Saturday night
as northwest winds remain quite strong. Advisory conditions (wind
chills at or below -15) are probable in the southern Poconos and far
northwest New Jersey.
Dry air advecting into the region from the northwest on Saturday
will likely make for a rather abrupt cutoff to the snow. A sharp
gradient in snow totals is possible if this dry air is stronger than
already forecast. This only increases uncertainty with snow totals
northwest of I-95, in particular.
There may be some light snow or a wintry mix on the front-end of the
event on Friday afternoon into the evening. Models remain quite
variable with this potential. Impacts with this are expected to be
limited. The primary period of more substantial precipitation (snow)
is expected to be after the Friday evening rush.
It's not uncommon for people who have gone their whole lives without concerns about a thing to suddenly, and sometimes for no perceivable reason at all, experience a flight or fight type panic response to that thing. Sometimes it's not even associated with any particular thing and just occurs at random times.
I think people often, and naturally, form associations with whatever they happen to be doing at the first time it occurs. And the association, if strong enough, can form a conscious trigger where there was none before. That, in turn can produce anxiety and panic when encountering the conscious trigger.
But the physical response people experience is driven by brain chemicals and can sometimes be due to nothing in particular, just a (often transient) chemical imbalance. Or it could be something we ate. Or a smell. Or sound. Or some subconscious childhood memory we're not even aware of at the time. Or some combination of those and other things.
It's not well understood what causes it, we just know its very common. Thankfully it's most often very temporary. This sort of thing happens to the strongest, toughest, most demonstrably brave people out there and has nothing at all to do with strength, toughness or bravery.
Bridges are a logical thing to associate with a random transient fear response. So are dogs, germs, etc.
But a lot of the time, one can untangle the fear-response from the perceived trigger and learn to recognize the the feel of our body being flooded with adrenaline and control the response by consciously relaxing and let the adrenaline rush wear off without spiraling into full blown panic.
Sounds to me like you've basically intuited your way through some of this.
how are you on a bridge like the one that takes you over from Lambertville to New Hope or the one that takes you from Washington Crossing to PA
those are very small two lane bridges
for me I dont have too much of a problem on bridges like that but Im aware but do actually get woozy when I walk those bridges, looking down is scary and looking up makes my legs jelly
If you are driving down daytime hours there is a much stop along the way. Maybe for lunch or a drink and a snack, there is a left exit off of Route 1, Card Sound Road. Head to Alabama Jack's. A great place. Great food and view. Best conch fritters in the state.
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You need to stop working those biceps so much and focus more on leg strength. 😀
I’m on those two bridges you mentioned (Lambertville/New Hope and Washington Crossing) pretty much on a daily basis. The LVille/NH bridge isn’t bad at all. It’s wide enough to feel pretty comfortable. The Washington Crossing bridge, on the other hand, is crazy narrow. If there is a car coming in the other direction, both cars have to slow down to about 5mph to pass each other....it feels like you have 6 inches of room on either side of you. Only saving grace is that it’s a very short bridge...my guess is only about 1000 feet or so.
I just try to look ahead as much as possible, I mean if you think about it, you drive everyday within the lines, there is no reason just because there is body of water to plunge off of or a car a few inches away from you on the other side that you should drive any differently. I mean its not like any people have driven off the bridge right?????????
And here are the percentage predictions from the accuweather app as of 11 am for north jersey
Less than 3 inches........ 17%
3-6 inches. 17%
6-10 inches. 24%
10-15 inches. 23%
Greater than 15. 19%
This certainly puts the accurate in accuweather 😏
Less than 3 inches........ 17%
3-6 inches. 17%
6-10 inches. 24%
10-15 inches. 23%
Greater than 15. 19%
This certainly puts the accurate in accuweather 😏
If you are interested in a white knuckle drive, I suggest trying to cross the Burlington-Bristol bridge in one of these:
One of the body's truly perplexing,awful responses, lol.
Have gotten the jelly legs when a foot or two away from sheer cliff. I need you more than ever, legs, you're literally going to kill me!
my wife and i were in Maui and decided to do the Road to Hana day trip. two points - that is a white knuckle ride for so much of the trip...sheer cliffs, super narrow road, and no guardrails for most of it. the second, and main point...before the trip, my wife had never had any issues with motion sickness, but between all the switchbacks, elevation changes, the terror of being 6 inches from imminent death in spots, and trying to read a guidebook to figure out where to turn off to check out the various sights along the way, she got violently car sick on the way back. to this day, driving thru any curvy road, riding around in a golf cart during a round of golf, or even watching video like a video chat where someone is moving their phone around too much, she gets motion sickness. the body responds in some crazy crazy ways.
I would actually love to try, but only if it was guaranteed that there would be no other traffic on the bridge. Which means, in reality, hard pass.If you are interested in a white knuckle drive, I suggest trying to cross the Burlington-Bristol bridge in one of these:
Just woke up to more model mayhem, lol. I'll repeat what John Homenuk/earthlight said a few days ago and keeps repeating: this is an extraordinarily explosive, yet fragile setup with a very high ceiling and a very low floor (meaning, for example, anything from 1-12" or maybe even a wider range for 95 still being on the table). Anyway, the 6Z runs showed more snow from the RDPS/NAM and the GFS shifted west substantially (but it was an outlier to the east and still only gave 2-4" coast and an inch or so for 95), while the Euro, which had been rock solid for days on at least 6" for the 95 corridor (and sometimes more), shifted east a decent amount producing only 3-5" for 95 (5-8" coast/1-3" NW). With that as preamble, let's see what happens with 12Z today.
And we're off, with the 12Z NAM shifting east a bit with the surface low, but having a more expansive precip shield so its snowfall was about identical to the 6Z/0Z NAMs with about 4-8" for 95 (~6" on 95), 7-11" for the coast and 2-4" 20+ miles NW of 95. Should be another interesting day of tracking.
Next up is the RGEM/RDPS, a mesoscale short-term model (basically the Canadian version of the NAM), which is about the same pretty snowy solution as it was at 0Z and 6Z, showing 5-8" for 95, 7-10" for the coast and 3-5" NW.
First global model of the 12Z suite is the GFS, as usual, and it's a slight tick NW with the low and the snow, relative to 6Z, with the 1" line right along a line from Philly to NYC, with the 95 corridor being about 0.5-2", and with about 2-4" towards the coast and not much NW of 95. Still the least snowy model, but not a giant outlier anymore, as it wouldn't take huge changes for the other models to move to a GFS solution and it wouldn't take a huge shift for the GFS to go much snowier either - that's the "fragility" of this volatile setup.
The 12Z CMC shifted a bit east (seems like the trend so far at 12Z), but is still a significant snowstorm (5-8") for 95 and major for the coast (7-10"), but moderate for NW (3-5"). And the UK, after one run that was snowy last night, is back to a GFS like east solution, with only 1-3" for most of 95, 3-4" for the coast and an inch or so NW (and it has been really bad this winter).
Well, so far the 12Z suite has not been what snow lovers wanted to see, with a moderate to significant eastward track shift and snowfall reduction vs. 0Z and 6Z. If the Euro is a repeat of the less snowy 6Z run, I could easily see the NWS converting the watches for 4-9" of snow for the 95 corridor to watches for 3-6" of snow for the 95 counties in SEPA/SNJ (where the criterion for a warning is 5") and to advisories for 3-6" of snow for 95 from Trenton to NYC (where the criterion is 6" for a warning). I could also see them convert the watch for the coast from 6-12" down to maybe 4-8". We'll see.
I'll repeat: very volatile/explosive setup with a lot more than 6" possible for 95 and a lot less, depending on the evolution of the systems. And keep in mind that the 12Z models (7 am EST inputs) are still 42 hours from when the storm gets going around 1 am Saturday (snow before then is bonus snow), so still plenty of time for modest to significant changes and this is one of those storms that could change at the last minute, easily.
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That's too high based on the 12Z models, IMO - would expect somewhere like EWR to have about 3-6" forecast and Morristown maybe a 2-4" forecast (if the Euro is similar to 6Z with a 3-5" snowfall for 95).
I think they will end up standing pat to cover themselves in case higher amounts do happen, they will be setting themselves up for criticism either way
lol, me too - I almost used the hoops team as an analogy in the post, but I'm already operating on little sleep...
