yeah that seems outrageous that they even put those percentages out for 10-15..wow this is how misinformation gets spread
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
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yeah that seems outrageous that they even put those percentages out for 10-15..wow this is how misinformation gets spread
I'll split the difference here. I think if the Euro holds where it was, they'll nudge snowfall amounts down, although they'll probably keep all of the watches, like you said, partly for continuity and partly since even a decreased 3-6" forecast for 95 could just make the 6" warning criterion, especially if we get 12-15:1 ratios, which converts 5" to 6.0-7.5".
NADA. Totally enclosed with a sidewalk. More focused on pulling mirrors in and not hitting the side or another car. And low and slow.
I'm 63 and still go up on 20' + ladders and walk on the roof of my house. Hell, I've driven a motorcycle over the Verrazano and walked across the GWB. But this is a potential freak out.
I think somebody went over the side of the Bay-Bridge-Tunnel last year. Ever been thru those tunnels where you're at the bottom of the bay and big trucks that barely fit are flying directly past you at 55mph and within say 5 feet?
My father was an owner-operator for a number of years and don't know how it did that.
ok numbers. sorry. carry on.
very interested in the reports because we were supposed to leave for Ocean Isle Beach, NC first thing Sunday which is now likely Monday. (probably repeating myself). Hoping its not going to be too much work to do before leaving dodge. Couple of older neighbors driveways to clear first. They're all freaking cause their losing their handyman for February.
Sounds a bit like much of SW Ireland (Kerry, Dingle, etc.) which is filled with very narrow 2 lane roads along steep hills and even some mountainsides that drop off into the sea or at least down the side of a steep hlll - and in places the smaller roads go to one lane and people kind of take turns going. I don't have any fear of heights so I loved driving in Ireland and the other side of the road thing was a non-issue for me - the main thing to keep in mind to make that easy is, like here, you always want the driver's side of the car to be near the center of the road.
One mildly amusing story: I was touring with a few coworkers (spent a cumulative 1 year in Ireland on work trips) in Kerry and we got to basically the westernmost point in SW Ireland and the road just kind of stops at an outcropping, so we get out of the car to look around and take it all in and take some pics and this little old man walks by and we said hello and then he looks at us and says, "fukksake lads - where do ye think yer goin;? You canna drive back to the States!" It was also St. Patty's Day, which is why we were off from work and galavanting. Spent an awesome evening partying with the locals at some remote pub in Kerry - they loved us - and that had nothing to do with us buying a bunch of drinks for the folks we ended up chatting with, lol.
Did this thread become one about gephyrophobia? Here is a freaky one:NADA. Totally enclosed with a sidewalk. More focused on pulling mirrors in and not hitting the side or another car. And low and slow.
I'm 63 and still go up on 20' + ladders and walk on the roof of my house. Hell, I've driven a motorcycle over the Verrazano and walked across the GWB. But this is a potential freak out.
The probably of whining, complaining and criticism about the predictions is 100%.
I will say this, no matter what happens with this storm, this thread took some interesting turns along the way - not off any bridges thankfully.
Essentially yes. Not enough snow in the forecast for a watch, but enough snow that it'll very likely be an advisory for maybe 3-5" of snow the way things look now. If you look at your NWS forecast (click on the map where you are) it says 3-6" of snow and the hourly weather forecast graphic shows about 4.5" for Somerville.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli...phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=218&map_y=75#.YfLZhurMJ3g
there is a lot of weenism about this storm on the americanwx board
Aren't you in western NJ? If so, Sunday might not be bad at all, even if you get 3-5" of powdery snow, which will be easy to plow from the main roads by Sunday morning and 95 SW of Philly will likely not be hit that hard either. Now, if the storm ends up stronger/further west and your area gets 6-10", that makes a Sunday departure more challenging. Just keep an eye on your forecast...
And 33andrain - it's the nature of the beast - a good 98% of posters on these boards want snow, including most of the mets, who do try to remain objective, which is why I try to mostly just read their posts.
This seems pretty reasonable to me, from CCB/Mike Mostwill, one of the owners/admins at 33andrain, given where we are now, subject to change of course. His bottom line is as follows:
NYC Metro: 3-6"
Long Island: 5-10"; More as you head E toward Suffolk County. Closer to Montauk, 12"+ psbl.
NWNJ: 1-3"
NENJ: 2-5"
C/SNJ: 3-7"
*Directly* along the NJ Shore: 5-10"
NYC Metro: 3-6"
Long Island: 5-10"; More as you head E toward Suffolk County. Closer to Montauk, 12"+ psbl.
NWNJ: 1-3"
NENJ: 2-5"
C/SNJ: 3-7"
*Directly* along the NJ Shore: 5-10"
If you are driving down daytime hours there is a much stop along the way. Maybe for lunch or a drink and a snack, there is a left exit off of Route 1, Card Sound Road. Head to Alabama Jack's. A great place. Great food and view. Best conch fritters in the state.
ALABAMA JACKS, Key Largo - Menu, Prices & Restaurant Reviews - Tripadvisor
Alabama Jacks, Key Largo: See 1,433 unbiased reviews of Alabama Jacks, rated 4.0 of 5 on Tripadvisor and ranked #42 of 121 restaurants in Key Largo.www.tripadvisor.com
Thanks, I'll check it out
SOOO, you are saying I should be ashamed and embarrassed and not show my, um, ah, myself here? Where I live, we might get 4 inches. THAT equals a BUST! Besides that, at my age I wish for busts all the time.
NWS
Winter Storm Watches are in effect for portions of our region (along and south/east of I-95). What does this mean? Watches are issued when confidence is medium (50% or higher) that significant snow/sleet and/or ice will occur causing potentially significant impacts to travel. Now is the time to PREPARE for significant snowfall in these areas!
What do we mean by "prepare"? Be prepared to be stuck at home until roads can be cleared. Make sure you have enough food and water to last through the storm. Test out your snow blower and generator if you have one. Power outages are possible, especially near the coast where winds will be strongest
Winter Storm Watches are in effect for portions of our region (along and south/east of I-95). What does this mean? Watches are issued when confidence is medium (50% or higher) that significant snow/sleet and/or ice will occur causing potentially significant impacts to travel. Now is the time to PREPARE for significant snowfall in these areas!
What do we mean by "prepare"? Be prepared to be stuck at home until roads can be cleared. Make sure you have enough food and water to last through the storm. Test out your snow blower and generator if you have one. Power outages are possible, especially near the coast where winds will be strongest
If you do, don't return back to Route 1 the way you came. Make a right out of the parking lot, a right as that road ends and you will hook back to Route 1 in Key Largo. Best of all no traffic and no traffic lights.
euro is 3-6 north of 95 and 6-10 south...
I think confidence is gaining that the big amounts are not happening
I think confidence is gaining that the big amounts are not happening
Completely not tied to this specific storm but someone here was discussing the snow storm from Dec 2013. I remember it because I remember the Eagles Lions game being played in a blizzard.
The guy was saying that the storm blew away estimates right before the storm dumping way more than projected for some areas. Anyone remember that?
The guy was saying that the storm blew away estimates right before the storm dumping way more than projected for some areas. Anyone remember that?
Yes. Not about the ability to be driving out on Sunday morning but me getting up to snow blow 3 driveways and shovel before heading out. After that it's a well deserved noon beer and just watch the game.
Just gonna play it by ear. 2 inches we're gone. 4 plus gotta stay and help.
Just woke up to more model mayhem, lol. I'll repeat what John Homenuk/earthlight said a few days ago and keeps repeating: this is an extraordinarily explosive, yet fragile setup with a very high ceiling and a very low floor (meaning, for example, anything from 1-12" or maybe even a wider range for 95 still being on the table). Anyway, the 6Z runs showed more snow from the RDPS/NAM and the GFS shifted west substantially (but it was an outlier to the east and still only gave 2-4" coast and an inch or so for 95), while the Euro, which had been rock solid for days on at least 6" for the 95 corridor (and sometimes more), shifted east a decent amount producing only 3-5" for 95 (5-8" coast/1-3" NW). With that as preamble, let's see what happens with 12Z today.
And we're off, with the 12Z NAM shifting east a bit with the surface low, but having a more expansive precip shield so its snowfall was about identical to the 6Z/0Z NAMs with about 4-8" for 95 (~6" on 95), 7-11" for the coast and 2-4" 20+ miles NW of 95. Should be another interesting day of tracking.
Next up is the RGEM/RDPS, a mesoscale short-term model (basically the Canadian version of the NAM), which is about the same pretty snowy solution as it was at 0Z and 6Z, showing 5-8" for 95, 7-10" for the coast and 3-5" NW.
First global model of the 12Z suite is the GFS, as usual, and it's a slight tick NW with the low and the snow, relative to 6Z, with the 1" line right along a line from Philly to NYC, with the 95 corridor being about 0.5-2", and with about 2-4" towards the coast and not much NW of 95. Still the least snowy model, but not a giant outlier anymore, as it wouldn't take huge changes for the other models to move to a GFS solution and it wouldn't take a huge shift for the GFS to go much snowier either - that's the "fragility" of this volatile setup.
The 12Z CMC shifted a bit east (seems like the trend so far at 12Z), but is still a significant snowstorm (5-8") for 95 and major for the coast (7-10"), but moderate for NW (3-5"). And the UK, after one run that was snowy last night, is back to a GFS like east solution, with only 1-3" for most of 95, 3-4" for the coast and an inch or so NW (and it has been really bad this winter).
And finally the 12Z Euro which is almost a carbon copy of 0Z last night and much snowier than 6Z, with 4-7" for 95, 7-10" for the coast and 2-4" for NW, so the mayhem continues.
So, the 12Z suite is complete and we still have no idea how much snow we're getting. The 12Z Euro and GFS moved a bit west/snowier vs. earlier, while the CMC/RDPS/UK moved a bit east/less snowy and the NAM was about the same. For the 95 corridor, if one takes a rough average, I'd guess a 3-6" snowfall forecast vs. the 4-8"on the maps. And I don't actually know if the NWS factors in snow/liquid ratios or not in their forecasts, but if they do, 3-6" would be more like 4-8" if we get a 13:1 ratio (expecting 12-15:1 snow/liquid ratios), given how cold it will be on Saturday (teens/low-mid 20s), which also means every flake accumulates even at midday.
But since the Euro moved back to a snowier solution (and the GFS even moved west vs. 0Z), my guess is the NWS-Philly will not change their forecasts much from 4 am, maybe lowering snowfall amounts a touch, like by 1" across the board (or not), depending on how they weight the models. I also don't think they'll go with warnings yet for the Philly-NJ 95 corridor, since the heaviest snow doesn't come until after midnight and there's time to issue warnings with the 4 am package tomorrow and by delaying they don't have to flip-flop on warnings to advisories or the other way around if the models change significantly at 0Z tonight. It is possible they go to warnings for the NJ coastal counties, where confidence is greater in 5-6". For the NWS-NYC, I would think they'll go to watches for the NENJ counties, where there are no watches now, and keep the watches for NYC, but there's a high likelihood they issue warnings for LI/CT, which are most at risk of >6" snows.
Again, a very volatile/explosve setup with a very high ceiling and a very low floor. Brooklynwx99, a met on 33andrain said it well: "This is an absolutely dreadful storm to pin down. There is the interaction of the initial disturbance, the vorticity over the Dakotas, the orientation and speed of the Canada vort, and the press of the TPV (tropospheric polar vortex), and all of those determine the moment when the trough closes off. good luck trying to figure that out. models are going to hop back and forth until game time, and we'll probably still have surprises then."
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One more thing to watch for tomorrow: several models are showing a 1/2" or so of snow tomorrow afternoon, before the main event - not a big deal with borderline temps (low 30s), but something to watch out for.
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yes I remember...surprise for sure it happens
but this isnt that setup and much of the area didnt even get into those snows that they got.
I remember it because it was the game before my fantasy football championship and I was the best team by far all year.....I had Stafford and Megatron.
That day the snow thwarted and completely killed the lions passing attack. I still had a great team, and David Wilson of the Cardinals had 3 TDs. Unfortunately, the guy i was facing had friggen Kirk cousins. Who put up an unprecedented 50 damn points!! I lost by 1.5 points, and the next week I would have easily beaten either team in the championship by 20. For 3rd place, I got my money back....but I would have won over $1,000, and I never came close to winning my league again.
This year, I'd have fun in some massive amounts of snow LOL
gfs and euro were barely snowier, like what an inch or less more, to me thats pretty steady with the last run and for the gfs very steady. I think the Euro would be a safe call if we didnt hae have the red flags from the gfs and now the ukie
NADA. Totally enclosed with a sidewalk. More focused on pulling mirrors in and not hitting the side or another car. And low and slow.
I'm 63 and still go up on 20' + ladders and walk on the roof of my house. Hell, I've driven a motorcycle over the Verrazano and walked across the GWB. But this is a potential freak out.
I did the 5 boro bike ride a couple of years ago. No one told me I had to bike over the Verrazano. White knuckled all the way.
There's a scarier viaduct in France. No Fing Way.
Yeah not suggesting that's the case here. But it came up in a discussion here and against the backdrop of overpredictions early in the week by the weenies, I just found it funny.
Verrazano is nothing. Not too steep, over water not too long. However it begins inland and it's a long way up but a shorter decent. Love riding my bike over it.
The 12Z Euro is much snowier than 6Z (6" line moved NW by 20-25 miles), but about the same as 0Z last night, while the 12Z GFS is slightly snowier than 6Z, but a lot snowier than 0Z and they were looking at 0Z when they made their forecasts, so net, they're seeing an overall snowier solution from two of the main models vs 0Z, but the other models did move a little east/less snowy vs. 0Z, so maybe it all cancels or maybe they lower amounts by a smidgen of 1" like I said. Tough call.
NWS and Weather Channel App on my phone are still going with 3 to 5.
They are usually on the side of caution and over predict.
I no longer depend on them to influence golf games, I got tired of calling off morning golf the night before and then not get a drop.
I hope they’re right this time
They are usually on the side of caution and over predict.
I no longer depend on them to influence golf games, I got tired of calling off morning golf the night before and then not get a drop.
I hope they’re right this time
With you on this one. One of my favorite parts of the 5 boro. Of course, seeing all of the crashes from folks on the descent adds a little excitement as well(will someone wipe out in front of you and take you out). Been a few years since I have done it(once they started requiring in person bib puckup ahead of time), but I seem to remember there being ambulances stationed at the bottom of every bridge descent on the route.
I've been riding in it since 1991. I laugh when you are descending there are Marshalls telling you to slow down. Yeah right. I just rode up a .75 climb. I'm going down as fast as I can!! 🤣🚲
If you want LESS snow, at least bring it upstairs. 😉
