I don't want to go in the basement....that is what i want...there is no solution to the equation.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
There is a solution if you want less snow.
If you're fine with what's being forecasted, then you're good.
How do you add/factor in the amount of stairs needed to be climbed?
If it is more than 5 + X(your age) I agree, your solution is correct.
So, the 12Z suite is complete and we still have no idea how much snow we're getting. The 12Z Euro and GFS moved a bit west/snowier vs. earlier, while the CMC/RDPS/UK moved a bit east/less snowy and the NAM was about the same. For the 95 corridor, if one takes a rough average, I'd guess a 3-6" snowfall forecast vs. the 4-8"on the maps. And I don't actually know if the NWS factors in snow/liquid ratios or not in their forecasts, but if they do, 3-6" would be more like 4-8" if we get a 13:1 ratio (expecting 12-15:1 snow/liquid ratios), given how cold it will be on Saturday (teens/low-mid 20s), which also means every flake accumulates even at midday.
But since the Euro moved back to a snowier solution (and the GFS even moved west vs. 0Z), my guess is the NWS-Philly will not change their forecasts much from 4 am, maybe lowering snowfall amounts a touch, like by 1" across the board (or not), depending on how they weight the models. I also don't think they'll go with warnings yet for the Philly-NJ 95 corridor, since the heaviest snow doesn't come until after midnight and there's time to issue warnings with the 4 am package tomorrow and by delaying they don't have to flip-flop on warnings to advisories or the other way around if the models change significantly at 0Z tonight. It is possible they go to warnings for the NJ coastal counties, where confidence is greater in 5-6". For the NWS-NYC, I would think they'll go to watches for the NENJ counties, where there are no watches now, and keep the watches for NYC, but there's a high likelihood they issue warnings for LI/CT, which are most at risk of >6" snows.
Again, a very volatile/explosve setup with a very high ceiling and a very low floor. Brooklynwx99, a met on 33andrain said it well: "This is an absolutely dreadful storm to pin down. There is the interaction of the initial disturbance, the vorticity over the Dakotas, the orientation and speed of the Canada vort, and the press of the TPV (tropospheric polar vortex), and all of those determine the moment when the trough closes off. good luck trying to figure that out. models are going to hop back and forth until game time, and we'll probably still have surprises then."
Sign In - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community
www.33andrain.com
One more thing to watch for tomorrow: several models are showing a 1/2" or so of snow tomorrow afternoon, before the main event - not a big deal with borderline temps (low 30s), but something to watch out for.
And we move on to 18Z. The 18Z NAM is about identical to the 12Z NAM with the 6" line along 95 and a few to several inches more towards the coast and a few less NW, although every pro in there was saying how this run was very close to being a lot more snow for NJ/NYC as the phasing was earlier and the low actually came NW a bit near our area, but not quite enough to hammer us, but snowfall amounts did go up a lot on LI and a bit at the Shore and New England gets hammered wtih 24-36" (and over 40" in spots) - that's the "explosiveness" I've been talking about.
On the boards it's all kind of like watching football in slow motion, seeing frames of models coming out every minute or two and reading the expert commentary on those frames, as well as seeing "instant replay" (animations of frame sequences looking back) and occasionally screaming at the screen and throwing stuff at it, lol.
Well, the 18Z RDPS/RGEM is nearly identical, but the big news is that the 18Z GFS may have just mostly caved to the other models, moving west, bringing a much snowier solution than it has shown in days going from an inch for 95 to 3-5" and from 2-3" for the coast to 5-8"; even NW gets 1-3". Let's see if that's a blip or a trend tonight at 0Z.
Last edited:
I had my guy come over and tune up my snow blower yesterday. That should help lower the totals.
I dont know I dont find this that dramatic, I feel the boards are wishing too much right now, americanwx is tough to read because they the model outputs do not match with what they are saying...yes its close but the fact is the models have generally been telling us who is going to get the brunt of this. I do not see anything on that to change it and we still must consider the GFS in all of this. I see on the Euro ensembles its a case of hits and whiffs. You have to wonder if those whiffs are onto something given what the gfs has shown..and the gfs has been good of late
Know all the Keys pretty well. I rode my bicycle from Key West to Fort Lauderdale 6 years in a row. Overnight in Islamorada. 2 day ride. Great way to see the Keys.
One suggestion to possibly avoid confusion is to maybe not specify NNJ/CNJ/SNJ as areas where there's similar snow amounts. Most people think of CNJ as Hunterdon/Mercer/Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth and maybe Union, give or take a bit here and there, so saying 3-6" for CNJ, if defined like that, is inaccurate, as the western parts of CNJ are maybe 2-5", while the 95 corridor part is 5-7" and far eastern Middlesex and Monmouth are 7-11". The axes of equal snow amounts run roughly SW to NE, which is why I use the 95 corridor as a key SW to NE divider and then go NW of there and SE of there with NW being less than 95 and SE being more (with this storm). Or if you're defining CNJ as just along and NW of 95 (not including Monmouth), then say so. Just my $0.02.18z nam is similar to 12z Euro......2-4 NW, 3-6 central and north jersey and 6-10 towards coast...thats inline with Mt Holly maps but again what do they do with the GFS and also Ukie....I think they keep these amounts if these models stay consistent to be on the safe side.
So, the 12Z suite is complete and we still have no idea how much snow we're getting. The 12Z Euro and GFS moved a bit west/snowier vs. earlier, while the CMC/RDPS/UK moved a bit east/less snowy and the NAM was about the same. For the 95 corridor, if one takes a rough average, I'd guess a 3-6" snowfall forecast vs. the 4-8"on the maps. And I don't actually know if the NWS factors in snow/liquid ratios or not in their forecasts, but if they do, 3-6" would be more like 4-8" if we get a 13:1 ratio (expecting 12-15:1 snow/liquid ratios), given how cold it will be on Saturday (teens/low-mid 20s), which also means every flake accumulates even at midday.
But since the Euro moved back to a snowier solution (and the GFS even moved west vs. 0Z), my guess is the NWS-Philly will not change their forecasts much from 4 am, maybe lowering snowfall amounts a touch, like by 1" across the board (or not), depending on how they weight the models. I also don't think they'll go with warnings yet for the Philly-NJ 95 corridor, since the heaviest snow doesn't come until after midnight and there's time to issue warnings with the 4 am package tomorrow and by delaying they don't have to flip-flop on warnings to advisories or the other way around if the models change significantly at 0Z tonight. It is possible they go to warnings for the NJ coastal counties, where confidence is greater in 5-6". For the NWS-NYC, I would think they'll go to watches for the NENJ counties, where there are no watches now, and keep the watches for NYC, but there's a high likelihood they issue warnings for LI/CT, which are most at risk of >6" snows.
Again, a very volatile/explosve setup with a very high ceiling and a very low floor. Brooklynwx99, a met on 33andrain said it well: "This is an absolutely dreadful storm to pin down. There is the interaction of the initial disturbance, the vorticity over the Dakotas, the orientation and speed of the Canada vort, and the press of the TPV (tropospheric polar vortex), and all of those determine the moment when the trough closes off. good luck trying to figure that out. models are going to hop back and forth until game time, and we'll probably still have surprises then."
Sign In - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community
One more thing to watch for tomorrow: several models are showing a 1/2" or so of snow tomorrow afternoon, before the main event - not a big deal with borderline temps (low 30s), but something to watch out for.
So, the NWS-Philly did kind of what I thought they might, issuing warnings for the NJ coastal counties (for 9-15" - maps should see increases) and keeping the watches up for the 95 counties for 4-10" - was 4-9"), plus they added Somerset to the watch list (for 4-6"), which I said they should have this morning. NWS-NYC just updated and added watches for the NENJ counties, but surprisingly didn't put up warnings for LI/CT.
They also put out a new snowfall map, which has significant increases for the coast in particular, but also all the way up to 95. These numbers seem a fair amount high for the Shore, but my guess is they're using snow ratios around 15:1, which would convert an 8" forecast to 12" and a 12" forecast to 18" (i.e., the coast in the 12-18" swath might really be getting 8-12" of typical 10:1, snow:liquid ratio snow x 1.5).
Edit: added in the NWS-NYC map, which also looks a bit high, but hey, the NWS ought to know what they're doing (but have busted high a fair amount on bigger storms the past few years).
Last edited:
I really dont consider monmouth central jersey, i lump them in my the coastal areas. I think you being nit picky, I was just giving a general range, peeps can read the map i posted
So, the NWS-Philly did kind of what I thought they might, issuing warnings for the NJ coastal counties (for 9-15" - maps should see increases) and keeping the watches up for the 95 counties for 4-10" - was 4-9"), plus they added Somerset to the watch list (for 4-6"), which I said they should have this morning. NWS-NYC not updated yet.
They also put out a new snowfall map, which has significant increases for the coast in particular, but also all the way up to 95...
its definitely bullish for the coast. I will say that much. Im okay with the 4-6 for north central jersey, not sure if places like Newark will get 8 and i find it odd that I am in the 6-8 area. Overall bullish, could happen but they could have left what they had before too. What if the GFS is right.
Upping their totals along & west of I-95? NWS Mount Holly is feeling a bit sassy.So, the NWS-Philly did kind of what I thought they might, issuing warnings for the NJ coastal counties (for 9-15" - maps should see increases) and keeping the watches up for the 95 counties for 4-10" - was 4-9"), plus they added Somerset to the watch list (for 4-6"), which I said they should have this morning. NWS-NYC not updated yet.
They also put out a new snowfall map, which has significant increases for the coast in particular, but also all the way up to 95...
people down here consider Toms River and north all North Jersey
Have this in my post on 18Z, but it's important enough for its own post, as the 18Z GFS may have just mostly caved to the other models, moving west, bringing a much snowier solution than it has shown in days going from an inch for 95 to 3-5" and from 2-3" for the coast to 5-8"; even NW gets 1-3". Let's see if that's a blip or a trend tonight at 0Z. Assuming it's for real, this validates the NWS generally discounting the GFS the past day or two and especially for not being very conservative in today's snowfall maps.
Welcome to the party GFS..if this holds at 0z i think the current forecast confidence increases
I have a place in Orleans, will ride this out in JC. But need to keep an eye on temps in case power goes out
In environs where winter storms are likely, it's pretty much essential that you have a backup heat source, whether it's a fireplace, woodstove, kerosene heater, etc. Also, fill up containers for drinking water and a tub for flushing a toilet. A week's supply of easy-prep meals and snacks is also practical, as is a recharging station for phones and small electronics.
Gonna go out on a limb and say you are prepping for war.
We have two fire places and keep ample firewood, water is off at the moment, and pipes emptied a bit. We have a caretaker as well who watches the house
LOL. Not exactly. Those recommendations will simply carry you safely and more comfortably through a winter power outage.
You want a good laugh. Go to the NJ covid dashboard and look how they define cnj.
I prepare by getting my in my order for hookers and blow early. Gotta do this because inventories become low due to panic buying right before a storm. The hookers provide the backup heat source.
Good point about the water supply, though. Gotta keep the toilets working well when having company.
NWS
⚠️🌨️🌬️ A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region Friday night through Saturday. Heavy snow, strong winds, tidal flooding, and low wind chills are all anticipated. Wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible area wide. The heavy snow combined with strong winds may cause blowing and drifting of snow and very low visibilities, especially near the coasts where the strongest winds are expected. Our latest snowfall forecast is in the graphic below. Visit weather.gov/phi for your local forecast. #NJwx #DEwx #MDwx #PAwx
⚠️🌨️🌬️ A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region Friday night through Saturday. Heavy snow, strong winds, tidal flooding, and low wind chills are all anticipated. Wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible area wide. The heavy snow combined with strong winds may cause blowing and drifting of snow and very low visibilities, especially near the coasts where the strongest winds are expected. Our latest snowfall forecast is in the graphic below. Visit weather.gov/phi for your local forecast. #NJwx #DEwx #MDwx #PAwx
Very jealous - tried to convince the wife to head up to the Cape, but that got vetoed, lol...
yep we have firewood in place, generator has been started and fueled up and snow blower and shovels are ready as well. I also changed the oil on the generator and the snow blower.
Plenty of food and alcohol as well . Looking forward to a nice hit and a cracking fire
Melted snow..the real stuff outside works well to fill the toilet tank and provide drinking water .
I'm sure there's a formula for how much recreational"snow" is needed per inch of the real stuff when confined.
Btw... Do you go with cold nationality hookers like Russian women or southern hemisphere chili's?
Love them vodka snow slushes.
