Windy and sitting what felt like higher than the railing on a bike. Terror.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
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Windy and sitting what felt like higher than the railing on a bike. Terror.
No no.. heading to 10 mins north of NC SC border.
Just reacting to the Cape Cod forecast.
Don't ski anymore but still love we a good winter snow in party.
They caught the last train to the coast before the…….
But at least on the bridge you were under cover from the rain! When you get to the top and looking back into Manhattan is spectacular.
So, the 12Z suite is complete and we still have no idea how much snow we're getting. The 12Z Euro and GFS moved a bit west/snowier vs. earlier, while the CMC/RDPS/UK moved a bit east/less snowy and the NAM was about the same. For the 95 corridor, if one takes a rough average, I'd guess a 3-6" snowfall forecast vs. the 4-8"on the maps. And I don't actually know if the NWS factors in snow/liquid ratios or not in their forecasts, but if they do, 3-6" would be more like 4-8" if we get a 13:1 ratio (expecting 12-15:1 snow/liquid ratios), given how cold it will be on Saturday (teens/low-mid 20s), which also means every flake accumulates even at midday.
But since the Euro moved back to a snowier solution (and the GFS even moved west vs. 0Z), my guess is the NWS-Philly will not change their forecasts much from 4 am, maybe lowering snowfall amounts a touch, like by 1" across the board (or not), depending on how they weight the models. I also don't think they'll go with warnings yet for the Philly-NJ 95 corridor, since the heaviest snow doesn't come until after midnight and there's time to issue warnings with the 4 am package tomorrow and by delaying they don't have to flip-flop on warnings to advisories or the other way around if the models change significantly at 0Z tonight. It is possible they go to warnings for the NJ coastal counties, where confidence is greater in 5-6". For the NWS-NYC, I would think they'll go to watches for the NENJ counties, where there are no watches now, and keep the watches for NYC, but there's a high likelihood they issue warnings for LI/CT, which are most at risk of >6" snows.
Again, a very volatile/explosve setup with a very high ceiling and a very low floor. Brooklynwx99, a met on 33andrain said it well: "This is an absolutely dreadful storm to pin down. There is the interaction of the initial disturbance, the vorticity over the Dakotas, the orientation and speed of the Canada vort, and the press of the TPV (tropospheric polar vortex), and all of those determine the moment when the trough closes off. good luck trying to figure that out. models are going to hop back and forth until game time, and we'll probably still have surprises then."
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One more thing to watch for tomorrow: several models are showing a 1/2" or so of snow tomorrow afternoon, before the main event - not a big deal with borderline temps (low 30s), but something to watch out for.
It always comes down to the mesoscale Dakota Vorticity.
Great song! I used to play that with a friend years ago. Will have to resurrect it.
I was looking at nothing other than the 10 feet of road in front of me. (and the front wheel for signs of falling off and throwing me over the side). LOL
The NJ provinces are easily defined, geologically.
North Jersey has large rocks above ground level.
South Jersey has no rocks below ground level.
Central Jersey is what's in between. Generally speaking, it's everything south of the Watchungs but north of the Pine Barrens.
Which is worse, driving on the bridge or the dam? I get vertigo just looking at the picture.Did this thread become one about gephyrophobia? Here is a freaky one:
For some folks it's pretty normal. Cost is low and the benefits are high.
Have a good evening boys and girls. Play nice. Poker night shortly...
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One more post - 18Z Euro came in a little west and a little snowier with 6-8" for most of 95, 4-6" NW and 8-12" as one gets closer to the coast. And if this system somehow closes off a bit earlier and moves just a little bit more NW, those 12-15" swath could easily move 30-40 miles NW to the 95 corridor. The possibility of a major snowstorm for 95 (8"+) is increasing - and this isn't even accounting for ratios yet. Let's see about 0Z later...
Close up map
Close up map
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Exactly man. My barber and I were talking about that same thing tonight.
started an OT thread on same. also no way!NADA. Totally enclosed with a sidewalk. More focused on pulling mirrors in and not hitting the side or another car. And low and slow.
I'm 63 and still go up on 20' + ladders and walk on the roof of my house. Hell, I've driven a motorcycle over the Verrazano and walked across the GWB. But this is a potential freak out.
One more post - 18Z Euro came in a little west and a little snowier with 6-8" for most of 95, 4-6" NW and 8-12" as one gets closer to the coast. And if this system somehow closes off a bit earlier and moves just a little bit more NW, those 12-15" swath could easily move 30-40 miles NW to the 95 corridor. The possibility of a major snowstorm for 95 (8"+) is increasing - and this isn't even accounting for ratios yet. Let's see about 0Z later...
Close up map
almost exactly like the Mt Holly forecast map
Hmmm, don’t know about that as it will be worse the further East you go. This is a late Friday into Saturday event unless I missed a change in timing.
At of 5:48 p.m.from NWS. Let's see how this plays out. I guess Middlesex County has no predictions? 🤷♂️
See projected inch counts for your area below.
Bergen County
- Bergenfield, NJ: 6 inches
- Hackensack, NJ: 7 inches
- Lyndhurst, NJ: 6 inches
- Paramus, NJ: 6 inches
- Ramsey, NJ: 5 inches
- Ridgefield, NJ: 7 inches
- Ridgewood, NJ: 6 inches
- Rutherford, NJ: 7 inches
Morris County
- Morristown, NJ: 5 inches
- Dover, NJ: 4 inches
- Madison, NJ: 6 inches
- Florham Park, NJ: 6 inches
Sussex County
- Hopatcong, NJ: 4 inches
- Newton, NJ: 3 inches
- Franklin, NJ: 4 inches
- Stanhope, NJ: 4 inches
Monmouth County
- Asbury Park, NJ: 12 inches
- Long Branch, NJ: 12 inches
- Tinton Falls, NJ: 11 inches
- Eatontown, NJ: 12 inches
Ocean County
- Point Pleasant, NJ: 13 inches
- Beachwood, NJ: 12 inches
- Point Pleasant Beach, NJ: 13 inches
- South Toms River, NJ: 12 inches
Camden County
- Camden, NJ: 6 inches
- Lindenwold, NJ: 8 inches
- Collingswood, NJ: 6 inches
- Haddonfield, NJ: 7 inches
Burlington County
- Burlington, NJ: 7 inches
- Palmyra, NJ: 6 inches
- Medford Lakes, NJ: 9 inches
- Bordentown, NJ: 8 inches
Cumberland County
- Vineland, NJ: 10 inches
- Millville, NJ: 10 inches
- Bridgeton, NJ: 8 inches
- Shiloh, NJ: 8 inches
How much snow is expected in New Jersey this weekend? See projected inch counts
How much snow is expected for Friday and Saturday in NJ? Get projected inch counts for different parts of the state here ahead of the big storm.
www.northjersey.com
Great …no snow in Essex Co!Awesome.At of 5:48 p.m.from NWS. Let's see how this plays out. I guess Middlesex County has no predictions? 🤷♂️
See projected inch counts for your area below.
Bergen County
- Bergenfield, NJ: 6 inches
- Hackensack, NJ: 7 inches
- Lyndhurst, NJ: 6 inches
- Paramus, NJ: 6 inches
- Ramsey, NJ: 5 inches
- Ridgefield, NJ: 7 inches
- Ridgewood, NJ: 6 inches
- Rutherford, NJ: 7 inches
Morris County
- Morristown, NJ: 5 inches
- Dover, NJ: 4 inches
- Madison, NJ: 6 inches
- Florham Park, NJ: 6 inches
Sussex County
- Hopatcong, NJ: 4 inches
- Newton, NJ: 3 inches
- Franklin, NJ: 4 inches
- Stanhope, NJ: 4 inches
Monmouth County
- Asbury Park, NJ: 12 inches
- Long Branch, NJ: 12 inches
- Tinton Falls, NJ: 11 inches
- Eatontown, NJ: 12 inches
Ocean County
- Point Pleasant, NJ: 13 inches
- Beachwood, NJ: 12 inches
- Point Pleasant Beach, NJ: 13 inches
- South Toms River, NJ: 12 inches
Camden County
- Camden, NJ: 6 inches
- Lindenwold, NJ: 8 inches
- Collingswood, NJ: 6 inches
- Haddonfield, NJ: 7 inches
Burlington County
- Burlington, NJ: 7 inches
- Palmyra, NJ: 6 inches
- Medford Lakes, NJ: 9 inches
- Bordentown, NJ: 8 inches
Cumberland County
National Weather Service
- Vineland, NJ: 10 inches
- Millville, NJ: 10 inches
- Bridgeton, NJ: 8 inches
- Shiloh, NJ: 8 inches
How much snow is expected in New Jersey this weekend? See projected inch counts
How much snow is expected for Friday and Saturday in NJ? Get projected inch counts for different parts of the state here ahead of the big storm.www.northjersey.com
For Linden
Friday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. West wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.
Friday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 22. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Friday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. West wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.
Friday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 22. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
good luck i doubt you get there to the Island where it is likely to still be snowing upwards of a foot
Would be great but I don’t know about that. I know you were kidding! Unfortunately, we may come out on the high end of predicted totals with this one.
Comparing amounts from above northjersey.com article, which predicts 12-13" for my area:
Friday Night
Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Blustery, with a north wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
9-15" possible vs 12-13" predicted.
Looks like the same for Somerset County! Or maybe just where the cool kidz live.
Here's the latest forecast for Elmont:
Friday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. West wind around 6 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 24. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Windy, with a north wind 26 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 12. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Stock up at Joe Leone’s for the storm
