I said no such thing. You’re the one who called this thread a waste of time, because you were so sure that all it was going to amount to was some snow flurries. I don’t know where you live and I really don’t care either, but it’s easy to say that if you don’t get at least 4 inches it’s a bust when you live in a place like Arizona. I’m sure you’ll come up with a location that manages to call the storm a bust, but ###s & others are talking New Jersey, especially central NJ & the shore areas.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Actually won almost $200 tonight, but have been on a bad streak the past few months in our on-line game with friends - almost a Black Swan event of a series of very low probability bad beats, but it'll turn around - it always does (and I definitely win more than lose with this group over the last 33 years), although it's still more social than anything else.
To answer your question, I'd say there's maybe a <2% chance now of the coast getting less than 6". Every model is now locked on to a fairly major snowstorm, especially for the NJ coast and we're now only 24-30 hours from the start of the event and it would be unprecedented to lose this storm now. The lowest model amount is the UK wihch gives you 8" at 10:1 ratios, but ratios should be at least 12-13:1, which would mean 10" on that model; the rest of the models all show at least 12" and some show 18" for your area - 12-18" translates to about 15-22" at those ratios. That's why getting <6" is a very small chance right now.
Even the 2015 bust was in large part due to forecasters ignoring models other than the Euro/NAM, which were showing a lot less snow west of the Hudson - right now we don't have that kind of model disagreement, but given how long it's taken to get here and the still somewhat sensitive setup we have, I wouldn't say 0.0 - that's why I went with <2%.
Headed to bed after looking at the Euro
Heading into the morning ill give a first call for Belle Mead at 4-8 inches and adjust accordingly with tomorrow's runs
Heading into the morning ill give a first call for Belle Mead at 4-8 inches and adjust accordingly with tomorrow's runs
Not sure of the exact timing of the storm, but any projections as to what roads will be like on Saturday AM In Central Jersey. I am supposed to drive my daughter from South Brunswick to down near Washington Crossing State Park at around 8 AM
Also, Supposed to attend a 97th birthday party Saturday afternoon down in Normandy Beach area, imagine, that won’t happen?
Also, Supposed to attend a 97th birthday party Saturday afternoon down in Normandy Beach area, imagine, that won’t happen?
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And we move on to 18Z. The 18Z NAM is about identical to the 12Z NAM with the 6" line along 95 and a few to several inches more towards the coast and a few less NW, although every pro in there was saying how this run was very close to being a lot more snow for NJ/NYC as the phasing was earlier and the low actually came NW a bit near our area, but not quite enough to hammer us, but snowfall amounts did go up a lot on LI and a bit at the Shore and New England gets hammered wtih 24-36" (and over 40" in spots) - that's the "explosiveness" I've been talking about.
On the boards it's all kind of like watching football in slow motion, seeing frames of models coming out every minute or two and reading the expert commentary on those frames, as well as seeing "instant replay" (animations of frame sequences looking back) and occasionally screaming at the screen and throwing stuff at it, lol.
Well, the 18Z RDPS/RGEM is nearly identical, but the big news is that the 18Z GFS may have just mostly caved to the other models, moving west, bringing a much snowier solution than it has shown in days going from an inch for 95 to 3-5" and from 2-3" for the coast to 5-8"; even NW gets 1-3". Let's see if that's a blip or a trend tonight at 0Z.
So, sounds like I missed a few things. Holy Mother of God as the weenies say. With every model moving west and snowier, relative to earlier runs (and now no major non-snowy outlier, like the GFS was for days) things certainly took a major step towards a major (8" or more in my book) snowstorm for the entire Philly-NJ-NYC area, with folks at the NJ coast and the eastern part of NYC and LI/CT in line to get well over a foot of snow and maybe up to 18" of snow, with potential blizzard conditions at times. This will likely be a serious and potentially dangerous storm, so be prepared if you go out in it with an emergency kit and think about what you might do if you lose power at your house, as scattered power outages are possible, as is minor coastal flooding.
With regard to the forecast, expect the NWS and other forecasters to significantly increase their snowfall forecasts in the morning. I'd expect something like 7-12" for the 95 corridor (which is 20-25 miles wide, centered on a line from Philly to NYC), with 12-18" as one moves towards the coast and with localized spots up to 24" at the immediate coast, while NW of the 95 corridor I'd expect 4-7", with maybe only 3-5" for the Poconos/Lehigh Valley - remember these snowfall amounts are assuming a 12-16:1 snow:liquid ratio factored in. With a forecast like that, I'd expect winter storm warnings for everywhere in DE, NJ (except maybe not Warren/Sussex) and SE PA along the Delaware River and probably advisories for the Lehigh Valley/Poconos - we'll have updated NWS maps in a few hours. And there will be warnings up for all of NYC, LI, CT and the Hudson Valley, with possible blizzard conditions on LI and maybe the Jersey Shore (not convinced there will be blizzard warnings until we're closer to the event and more sure on the foreast).
Yes, there is still the chance for modest or perhaps significant changes, as this is still a very complex and volatile setup, but we're only 24-30 hours from the start of the main precip, which is very late in the game when we have strong model consensus now on a major winter storm. What this likely means, for example, is for a place like New Brunswick, which is likely going to be forecast toget 10" of snow with the updated forecast shortly, getting less than 5" or more than 15" is hard to imagine and a complete whiff or even a return to just a few inches of snow should be off the table.
Anyway, with regard to the 0Z models, it's time for the round up and maps. Since I was told that the NWS is using greater than 10:1 snow to liquid ratios, likely in the 12-16:1 range for most, I'm going to share the Kuchera maps which have an algorithm that I don't love, but should work reasonably well for a storm with a column that is completely below 32F, but not below 10-15F (which exaggerates ratios too much). The Kuchera ratios are in the range of 12-16:1 (so the 10:1 ratio maps would have the snowfall multiplied by 1.2 to 1.6X) from what I've seen comparing the Kuchera to regular 10:1 snow:liquid ratio maps, with the ratios in the 12-14:1 range near the coast going up to 16:1 to the NW of 95 (and even 20:1 in far NW areas). The one factor that could keep ratios a little lower than this is high winds, which can promote cystal breakage and lead to a denser snow pack (more like a 10-12:1 ratio, but since a fair amount of snow should fall before it gets too windy, I'm going to go with the Kuchera maps, especially since I think these are much more consistent with the NWS maps.
I don't have time to discuss the changes from 12Z/18Z for each model, so I'm just going to put them all here for review and I included the Euro with both the 10:1 and Kuchera ratios so folks can compare; note that the UK is 10:1 ratio, as Kuchera is not available to me. Here they are.
0Z UK is 10:1 ratio
0Z Euro with both Kuchera and 10:1 ratios
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Well, I had to wait up for the NWS updates and the 6Z NAM, just to see if the west/snowy trend would continue and if you don't like snow, don't look at the snowmap for the NAM - see below. So, the NWS updated their snowfall maps, below, and they're a little under what I was guessing in the post above an hour or so ago, but I think they're more likely to step up in accumulations more slowly, while I'm mostly just looking at model consensus, which could be a somewhat flawed approach.So, sounds like I missed a few things. Holy Mother of God as the weenies say. With every model moving west and snowier, relative to earlier runs (and now no major non-snowy outlier, like the GFS was for days) things certainly took a major step towards a major (8" or more in my book) snowstorm for the entire Philly-NJ-NYC area, with folks at the NJ coast and the eastern part of NYC and LI/CT in line to get well over a foot of snow and maybe up to 18" of snow, with potential blizzard conditions at times. This will likely be a serious and potentially dangerous storm, so be prepared if you go out in it with an emergency kit and think about what you might do if you lose power at your house, as scattered power outages are possible, as is minor coastal flooding.
With regard to the forecast, expect the NWS and other forecasters to significantly increase their snowfall forecasts in the morning. I'd expect something like 7-12" for the 95 corridor (which is 20-25 miles wide, centered on a line from Philly to NYC), with 12-18" as one moves towards the coast and with localized spots up to 24" at the immediate coast, while NW of the 95 corridor I'd expect 4-7", with maybe only 3-5" for the Poconos/Lehigh Valley - remember these snowfall amounts are assuming a 12-16:1 snow:liquid ratio factored in. With a forecast like that, I'd expect winter storm warnings for everywhere in DE, NJ (except maybe not Warren/Sussex) and SE PA along the Delaware River and probably advisories for the Lehigh Valley/Poconos - we'll have updated NWS maps in a few hours. And there will be warnings up for all of NYC, LI, CT and the Hudson Valley, with possible blizzard conditions on LI and maybe the Jersey Shore (not convinced there will be blizzard warnings until we're closer to the event and more sure on the foreast).
Yes, there is still the chance for modest or perhaps significant changes, as this is still a very complex and volatile setup, but we're only 24-30 hours from the start of the main precip, which is very late in the game when we have strong model consensus now on a major winter storm. What this likely means, for example, is for a place like New Brunswick, which is likely going to be forecast toget 10" of snow with the updated forecast shortly, getting less than 5" or more than 15" is hard to imagine and a complete whiff or even a return to just a few inches of snow should be off the table.
Anyway, with regard to the 0Z models, it's time for the round up and maps. Since I was told that the NWS is using greater than 10:1 snow to liquid ratios, likely in the 12-16:1 range for most, I'm going to share the Kuchera maps which have an algorithm that I don't love, but should work reasonably well for a storm with a column that is completely below 32F, but not below 10-15F (which exaggerates ratios too much). The Kuchera ratios are in the range of 12-16:1 (so the 10:1 ratio maps would have the snowfall multiplied by 1.2 to 1.6X) from what I've seen comparing the Kuchera to regular 10:1 snow:liquid ratio maps, with the ratios in the 12-14:1 range near the coast going up to 16:1 to the NW of 95 (and even 20:1 in far NW areas). The one factor that could keep ratios a little lower than this is high winds, which can promote cystal breakage and lead to a denser snow pack (more like a 10-12:1 ratio, but since a fair amount of snow should fall before it gets too windy, I'm going to go with the Kuchera maps, especially since I think these are much more consistent with the NWS maps.
I don't have time to discuss the changes from 12Z/18Z for each model, so I'm just going to put them all here for review and I included the Euro with both the 10:1 and Kuchera ratios so folks can compare; note that the UK is 10:1 ratio, as Kuchera is not available to me. Here they are.
0Z UK is 10:1 ratio
0Z Euro with both Kuchera and 10:1 ratios
The NWS also issued warnings (pink) for all of DE, all of NJ, except Sussex/Warren (adivsories up in blue), SEPA adjacent to SNJ, and for NYC, LI, CT and the Hudson Valley, plus they issued blizzard warnings (orange) for the NJ coastal counties - a little suprised at that, especially since LI/CT didn't get blizzard warnings and are likely to experience higher winds. In addition, fortunately, this will be a dry, powdery snow which should not stick to trees/wires, so even though there will be heavy snow, hopefully, it won’t cause many power outages. Furthermore, with the extended fetch off the ocean, minor coastal flooding is possible.
Anyway, the 12Z NAM is simply insane with 16-26" from 95 to the coast in NJ, NYC, LI, CT and New England and that's at 10:1 ratios - the Kuchera map with a 15:1 ratio, roughly, which is fairly reasonable given how cold it will be (teens to mid-20s) shows 24-40" in these areas. I'm nearly certain the NAM is overdoing it as occurs sometimes, but even if the precip is 33% too high, that would still be 16-28" vis the Kuchera algorithm. Below is the 10:1 map and the Kuchera map (roughly 15:1 ratio). If the other models follow even somewhat, we're going to see increases in those snowfall predictions. Speaking of which, the 06 RDPS was a bit less snowy than 0Z, while the 6Z GFS was nearly identical to 0Z (both quite snowy, but not NAM like), so far no evidence of a trend towards a huge solution. Like I've been saying, an explosive, but fragile setup...
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Reminds me of the old readers digest stories “I am Joes heart”Nothing there for me. Thanks for the suggestion. Have you seen their family history of heart attacks?
At 42 years old: "Joe’s left anterior descending (LAD) artery was 90 percent blocked. This blockage is often called a “widow maker” because it prevents blood from passing through the LAD"
Breaking the Chain of Heart Attack
www.hackensackmeridianhealth.org
I’m actually a little disappointed I’m going to miss out on this. While not a fan of cold windy winter anymore, I do love a good blizzard, especially if I’m not going anywhere. Would have been nice too in the new house as we look out over the wetlands on 37th streetWell, I had to wait up for the NWS updates and the 6Z NAM, just to see if the west/snowy trend would continue and if you don't like snow, don't look at the snowmap for the NAM - see below. So, the NWS updated their snowfall maps, below, and they're a little under what I was guessing in the post above an hour or so ago, but I think they're more likely to step up in accumulations more slowly, while I'm mostly just looking at model consensus, which could be a somewhat flawed approach.
The NWS also issued warnings (pink) for all of DE, all of NJ, except Sussex/Warren (adivsories up in blue), SEPA adjacent to SNJ, and for NYC, LI, CT and the Hudson Valley, plus they issued blizzard warnings (orange) for the NJ coastal counties - a little suprised at that, especially since LI/CT didn't get blizzard warnings and are likely to experience higher winds. In addition, fortunately, this will be a dry, powdery snow which should not stick to trees/wires, so even though there will be heavy snow, hopefully, it won’t cause many power outages. Furthermore, with the extended fetch off the ocean, minor coastal flooding is possible.
Anyway, the 12Z NAM is simply insane with 16-26" from 95 to the coast in NJ, NYC, LI, CT and New England and that's at 10:1 ratios - the Kuchera map with a 15:1 ratio, roughly, which is fairly reasonable given how cold it will be (teens to mid-20s) shows 24-40" in these areas. I'm nearly certain the NAM is overdoing it as occurs sometimes, but even if the precip is 33% too high, that would still be 16-28" vis the Kuchera algorithm. Below is the 10:1 map and the Kuchera map (roughly 15:1 ratio). If the other models follow even somewhat, we're going to see increases in those snowfall predictions. Speaking of which, the 06 RDPS was a bit less snowy than 0Z, while the 6Z GFS was nearly identical to 0Z (both quite snowy, but not NAM like), so far no evidence of a trend towards a huge solution. Like I've been saying, an explosive, but fragile setup...
Jersey coast under a blizzard warning. The first such warning in 4 years.
Dan Zarrow 101.5
12 to 18+ Coastal Plains from Long Branch to Ocean City to Jackson
8-12 Southeast of NJ Turnpike Bayonne New Brunswick Freehold Mt Laurel Hammonton Vineland
4-8 Just NW of NJ Turnpike Newark Plainfields Hillsborough Princeton Trenton Camden Salem
1-4 Northwest NJ New Milford Sussex Hacketstown Flemington
12 to 18+ Coastal Plains from Long Branch to Ocean City to Jackson
8-12 Southeast of NJ Turnpike Bayonne New Brunswick Freehold Mt Laurel Hammonton Vineland
4-8 Just NW of NJ Turnpike Newark Plainfields Hillsborough Princeton Trenton Camden Salem
1-4 Northwest NJ New Milford Sussex Hacketstown Flemington
You know, I moved down the shore to get LESS snow, not more.
The light snow this morning is not directly related to the storm. The impact from the storm will be later tonight, from south to north.
The first round isn't part of the storm. That is part of the cold front coming through. High temp in Philadelphia tomorrow will be 23 degrees. Not much to come out of this round.
Had to make the call to spend this weekend “up north” (as they call everything above “the bridge”) and get someone to take care of clearing the snow at the beach house. Not trying to get snowbound.
Seems like this was an expected light snow/dusting for a few hours. Tonight starts the main event.
Hearing the blue districts in Somerset County will get dumped on.
Don't start. Why is it you people always try to bring crap here?
I thought he was referring to the Hillsborough Deli
I should be traversing the Main Street bridge with snowblower between 8 p.m. and midnight tomorrow. That's if I truly fixed it and it does not stall. 😜 Good luck!!!
LOL.
Snow is snow. I don't need to go anywhere for days. It's the other stuff that is always a concern.
Ahh, life at the beach huh?
Coastal flooding should be be too bad. Stay safe. Temperatures in the 50s on Thursday!
How is Brennan's these days? After leaving the peninsula in the summer of 2017, think I have returned once or twice. Don't miss it.
Do you shovel from your house to Leggetts just in case you have an emergency?? 🤣
