This was the biggest one in Philadelphia, just a few years ago!
Watch the explosion in this video. Unreal!
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OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
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Watch the explosion in this video. Unreal!
Get them worked up more by saying the storm is going to be a bust.
lets talk favorite storms....mine is February 1983 where I nearly got 2 feet. My first really big snowstorm of all time
I did experience the one in 78. This one they talked about days before, almost a week, and were hyping it but then as we got about 24 hours to the event they started to drop totals and yeah they were saying 1-3/2-4. We all went off to school and I remember the snow starting in the morning sometime and it was already past the time they would call the half day. But it was a quick call for early dismissal immediately within the hour. Remember the big flakes that day the numbers kept going and going up...3-6, 4-8, 6-10, 10-14, 12-18 and then finally 18-24. My first experience with Thundersnow. I think we had 23 IMBY, it was insane to experience that and it would be until Jan 1996 I would experience something that topped it.
I did experience the one in 78. This one they talked about days before, almost a week, and were hyping it but then as we got about 24 hours to the event they started to drop totals and yeah they were saying 1-3/2-4. We all went off to school and I remember the snow starting in the morning sometime and it was already past the time they would call the half day. But it was a quick call for early dismissal immediately within the hour. Remember the big flakes that day the numbers kept going and going up...3-6, 4-8, 6-10, 10-14, 12-18 and then finally 18-24. My first experience with Thundersnow. I think we had 23 IMBY, it was insane to experience that and it would be until Jan 1996 I would experience something that topped it.
That was an all-timer along with 1996 and Boxing Day. The wind on the back end of the Boxing Day storm was insane.
We had front row seats for a couple of good Hercules fires, in Sayreville, back in the 70s and early 80s.
There was a refinery fire in Linden somewhere around '69 or so that was pretty spectacular.
There was a refinery fire in Linden somewhere around '69 or so that was pretty spectacular.
So, the 12Z NAM cut precip/snow by about half, as it phased a bit later meaning it was a bit further east and had less precip for our area (and everywhere else), indicating that the 6Z run was likely well overdone, as many were thinking. Now it's on the low side of most models - will say it again, explosive, but fragile setup. On the flip side, the last of the 6Z runs, the Euro went snowier, so my guess is the NWS snowfall maps are probably looking pretty good right now. Will also be interesting to see if the 12Z NAM portends any trend in lower snowfall amounts or if it was just a typical NAM hiccup. Just woke up, so haven't had time to dive deeply into it. Posted the 12Z NAM Kuchera and 10:1 maps below, for each but think the Kuchera ~15:1 ratios will better capture snow accumulations, although 15:1 might be a tad high, so the actualy could be a combo of the two.
And yes the light snow now was expected and discussed yesterday - could be 1/2" or so today - we have a nice dusting right now.
12Z RDPS and GFS maps, both of which are very similar to their 6Z runs (maybe a touch snowier for RDPS) both 10:1 and Kuchera (roughly 15:1) - thinking we'll see 13-14:1, but that's a bit of a guess, so both maps are worth looking at...
12Z CMC also came in a bit east with less precip - could be a trend and if so, could be back to 5-8" for 95. Never easy doing snowfall forecasting in this area, especially with such a volatile setup...
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i have seen at least one met on americanwx say to be careful with Kuchera, it will be 12-1 at best with the windAdding in Kuchera map for the RDPS/RGEM, which I think will capture snow accumulations better with the ~15:1 ratios. The HRRR is simply out of its useful range right now. Do agree it's likely folks not too far NW of 95 will likely see a steep gradient in snowfall amounts.
All will be melted on Wednesday/Thursday
Don’t bother shoveling
He's not kidding folks - I'm doing more on the weather now, in retirement, but still did a lot before then, plus my typical work week was 50-60 hours most of my career - made for 1-2 hours a night for days before a storm and then I'd just crash. 3-4 hours a night now is cake, lol...
Bayway refinery in Linden blew in '70. Was told windows were shattered in homes in Elizabeth all the way to Staten Island from the blast. They new the cracker was going to blow for a while but couldn't stop it. I was a toddler.
But what about getting out on Sunday-Tuesday? I need to be able to respond to fire calls.
More like:
An outstanding moment in the history of television.
The little pass thru snow hasn't passed thru yet out here. Been a constant light snow for several hours but again. zero impact to travel..but the drive is now covered.
I want to publicly thank the West Amwell Road dept. for beginning their spread right in front of my drive and dropping 2/3rd's of a 5 gallon bucket worth of salt in a pile I know own :). Saved me a trip to the store lol.
I want to publicly thank the West Amwell Road dept. for beginning their spread right in front of my drive and dropping 2/3rd's of a 5 gallon bucket worth of salt in a pile I know own :). Saved me a trip to the store lol.
The sucky thing about the brunt of the storm occurring tonight/tomorrow, is no paid crew on duty.
Not my call to make. But I want to see how the AWD Maverick performs in the snow.
Have seen people saying that for years and I think it's overrated. When we have good crystal formation making nice dendrites in the DGZ, they always travel through a column with fairly high winds and don't break much - crystal formation will have a much greater impact on ratios, as it always does and that is a bit of guesswork too, since we don't know well, yet what the lift/supersaturation will be thousands of feet up where snow crystals form from supesaturation driven nucleation and vapor phase surface deposition on those nuclei. A long way of saying, I think it'll be somewhere between 10 and 15:1, which is why I've been posting both maps.
Like any pickup you should throw a couple bags of sand in the bed for the winter.
12Z models are all over the place, once again revealing who volatile the setup is, even 12-18 hours before showtime. 12Z UK (below at 10:1 - no Kuchera available, so these numbers should be low) came in at its snowiest in many days, as it has been the eastern outlier. Plus the long range HRRR and the HREFs came in snowier (not posting them yet - probably out of range, but the trend is there).12Z RDPS and GFS maps, both of which are very similar to their 6Z runs (maybe a touch snowier for RDPS) both 10:1 and Kuchera (roughly 15:1) - thinking we'll see 13-14:1, but that's a bit of a guess, so both maps are worth looking at...
12Z CMC also came in a bit east with less precip - could be a trend and if so, could be back to 5-8" for 95. Never easy doing snowfall forecasting in this area, especially with such a volatile setup...
I dont know to me it seems like the models are converging on the 2-4, 4-8, 6-10, 8-14 zones depending where you live
I think the fallacy is trying to chase the widespread 12 plus amounts that the nam should for a run or two
I think the fallacy is trying to chase the widespread 12 plus amounts that the nam should for a run or two
This is even better. In my younger, more wackerish days, I resembled this.Easy there, whacker.
Except if you have animals to feed and water, I have no choice but to be prepared. Just finishing up storm prep now. I've come to absolutely despise putting on the tractor tire chains for the front loader. Everyone makes it look so easy on the videos, for me, it looks like a monkey trying to fvck a football. When I'm done there's tools thrown everywhere.
Did you hear about the fire on Gull Island Wednesday? I was out of town for part of the day so no idea what happened.
Brush fire sweeps across Gull Island in Point Pleasant Beach, drawing the Coast Guard
A brush fire cuts across Gull Island, a conservation area off Point Pleasant Beach. The Coast Guard was also called to help.
In a way, that is a good thing, like a controlled burn that is done in the state forests. A PITA in the middle of the winter, though.
Brush fire sweeps across Gull Island in Point Pleasant Beach, drawing the Coast Guard
A brush fire cuts across Gull Island, a conservation area off Point Pleasant Beach. The Coast Guard was also called to help.www.yahoo.com
From the story: "Ash was falling on the area . . ."
Thought we got rid of him for good!!! 😜
Coast Guard fighting a brush fire. Now there's an idea......Brush fire sweeps across Gull Island in Point Pleasant Beach, drawing the Coast Guard
A brush fire cuts across Gull Island, a conservation area off Point Pleasant Beach. The Coast Guard was also called to help.
