For funsies I just googled "Shoprite near me". The traffic meter is almost pegged at "as busy as it gets". We will need an update from the French Toast Indicator
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Actually, in hindsight, the 12Z models, at least the 4 main globals are not all over the place and they're much closer to each other than they've ever been during this whole event progression. Obviously, this is what should happen close to an event, but after all the mayhem (and we'll likely still see some, especially from the meso/CAM/short-range models and of course from the radar), it's fascinating to see. The NWS forecast for the Philly/NYC AFDs, below, is looking pretty good right now, depending of course, on how they account for ratios (still on a quest to find that out), but I included all 4 globals with both Kuchera (roughly 15:1 for most) and the usual 10:1 ratio maps (except the UK, which I only have as a 10:1 map).
Here are the 4 globals at 10:1 ratios...
Here are 3 of the globals with Kuchera ratios (roughly 15:1 or 1.5X that of the 10:1 maps); UK doesn't have a Kuchera map and we think the NWS uses an in-house ratio algorithm for ratios that is likely in the 12-14:1 ratio level for this event...
Finally found out how to find what the NWS is using for their snow ratios when they make their snowfall maps and for the locations around the 95 corridor and the coast, at least, that ratio is around 14:1, based on the data NWS actually has buried in their point forecast matrices, where they show the liquid amount that falls along with the snow accumulation.
Given that Kuchera uses about 15:1 for 95/coast from what I've seen, from here on out, I'm going to post Kuchera maps for this event, as it's definitely closer to what the NWS is expecting for snow to liquid ratios - of course, it doesn't mean they're right, but I'd rather go with their analysis/experience than anyone else's. In the example below for NYC, they're calling for 0.64" of liquid and 9" of snow for a ratio of 13.8:1. Cool stuff - have always wondered that.
POINT FORECAST MATRICES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
322 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2022
NYZ072-290900-
CENTRAL PARK-NEW YORK NY
40.78N 73.97W ELEV. 16 FT
322 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2022
DATE 01/28/22 SAT 01/29/22 SUN 01/30/22 MON
EST 3HRLY 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07
UTC 3HRLY 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12
MIN/MAX 19 24 12 26 18
TEMP 33 33 31 28 24 20 17 17 21 21 14 12 14 13 18 23 24 23 22 22 20 19
DEWPT 28 26 23 20 17 14 12 11 7 3 -2 -2 -1 2 5 8 8 8 9 10 10 11
RH 82 75 72 71 74 77 80 77 54 45 48 52 50 61 56 52 50 52 57 59 64 70
WIND DIR NE N N N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W NW N
WIND SPD 2 8 10 14 17 21 27 24 25 21 21 18 18 16 14 12 11 10 8 5 3 2
WIND GUST 28 37 39 36 34
CLOUDS OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV B1 FW FW FW FW FW FW SC SC B1 B1 B1
POP 12HR 100 90 30 0 0
QPF 12HR 0.27 0.37 0.01 0 0
SNOW 12HR 4 5 T
SNOW C C D D D D D C C C
WIND CHILL 26 22 16 10 4 -2 -1 4 5 -4 -6 -3 -3 4 11 13 12 13 15
MIN CHILL 26 16 4 -3 0 -6 -5 -1 12 13 13
WINTER STORM W W W W W W W W
https://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fous51.KOKX.html
The weenies on americanwx are either in the Anger phase or the Bargaining phase of grief. That recent NAM run must have been brutal. And yet, Mt Holly upped snow totals in the Hamilton area again, hedging to the high side of estimates. The storm kicks off in a couple hours...absolutely fascinating.
They're fashion models. They always look (and are) young, and like they did a few lines, put a needle in their arms, and haven't eaten in 3 years. Walking clothes hangers, basically.
Always struck me as odd that fashion models look utterly unlike the vast majority of folks who might actually buy what they're wearing at a fashion show. But I live in shorts and sweatpants and t-shirts or sweat-shirts. So what do I know?
Anyway, I was just grabbing the first line up of models image I could find.
You're saying they have moleiosis?
Ugh. That might be the worst bad dad joke I've ever made. And I've made some bad ones.
It's going to depend on timing.
Anywhere past 11pm or so, I'm already deep enough into Friday Night that operating heavy machinery is contraindicated.
Those were the first thing that came up in a Google search for "fashion model". My collection looks more like this:
I'm just worried about bugging neighbors with having garage light on (it faces their house) and sound of me shoveling at 10/11 or so. No snow blower.
Maybe I'm just being too accommodating.
That reminds me, I need to go to the store because I forgot the bread and the milk!
Hey I ran into them at the Hillsborough Deli earlier this week!
The blond is a friend of my wife.
Storm's going to start soon, folks - probably by 9-10 pm for most, lightly, and the heaviest snow will fall between about 1 am and 11 am Saturday, so be safe, but enjoy...
Updated NWS snowfall maps, below, which have been increased a small amount (an inch or so in most places) vs. 4 am this morning. Also, as per below, they're generally using a snow:liquid ratio of 14:1, which is close to the Kuchera ratio of 15:1 for snowfall maps for this event, at least for 95/coast. I also included the NBM, national blend of models snowfall map that the NWS often uses to guide their forecasts. Think I've had enough of models and maps - time to watch the radar, observations, meso trends and looking out my window and enjoying it all - even shoveling, lol.
One last time: this setup is exquisitely delicate and volatile, such that small changes, even now, could have substantial impacts on the snowfall. As such, the bust potential on both the low and high side is higher than normal.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/208...cussion/page/314/?tab=comments#comment-317275
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Updated NWS snowfall maps, below, which have been increased a small amount (an inch or so in most places) vs. 4 am this morning. Also, as per my recent post, they're generally using a snow:liquid ratio of 14:1, which is close to the Kuchera ratio of 15:1 for snowfall maps for this event, at least for 95/coast. I also included the NBM, national blend of models snowfall map that the NWS often uses to guide their forecasts. Think I've had enough of models and maps - time to watch the radar, observations, meso trends and looking out my window and enjoying it all - even shoveling, lol.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/208...cussion/page/314/?tab=comments#comment-317275
see this is better than their text product which lumps a whole bunch of disparate cities with some huge range of totals
This is going to bust. Just a hunch. No one in nj gets a foot.
Agreed, but that's the limitation of having whole counties in those products - almost every county would benefit from being split for events like this, like several are already (Bergen, Passaic, Union, Essex, Burlington, and coastal Monmouth/Ocean). Maps are way better and I still think the NWS map is a little high, but we'll see soon...
Because the gradient from a lot to a little snow is closer to the NJ coast than it is to Suffolk, LI, so could easily see 18" in Belmar, but 9" in Freehold, both in the same county.
Based on BACs pictures I see both a bust and also 36 inches.
I know it's weenie land, but I can't see why they are so pissed off. Most of the area is getting significant snow out of this storm. I know, I know, Numbers explained this to me already. It's all about expectations.
Burlington County starts at the Delaware River and ends at the Great Bay, North of AC. It will easily get the greatest differential between high and low totals for any county
Disagree with this. Plenty of spots at the shore will get 12"+ - the bust area is along and NW of 95, where the gradient from SE to NW is so, so sharp. Could see something like 6" in Dunellen, 11" in Keyport and 15" in Belmar, but if the storm moves east 25 miles that could end up as 3" in Dunellen, 8" in Keyport and 14" in Belmar, as Belmar has so much more margin for error in a bust scenario, as it's far from the gradient.
That's why it's split into SE and NW parts for weathe forecasts - should be done for others...
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