OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
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You ever seen a real hooker. That ain't them. Might be gogo dancer. Likely kept woman of wealthy guy.
What happens at the Hillsborough Deli stays at the Hillsborough Deli 😉
Looks like a wet snow mix here in Linden now.
Interestingly, Lee Goldberg, who I respect greatly, increased his snowfall totals recently, as he said he might and despite model support not being quite as strong the past few hours, but they do have access to tools and models we don't and maybe he'll be right. Here are his old and new forecasts, shwing the 6" and 12" lines moving a good 15-20 miles NW in NJ/NY. He went from being a bit less snowy than the NWS to a bit more snowy. Interesting. Ok, time to look at some obs/radar...
The reason I posted it is that I'm a bit pessimistic right now on reaching the forecasted snowfall for Metuchen of 9.1" from the NWS, as I'm in their 6-12" warning range, as trends have been towards a little less snow in the latest short-term models. So, I'm going to go with a guess of 8.25" in Metuchen. Would still be a superb storm for me.
The reason I posted it is that I'm a bit pessimistic right now on reaching the forecasted snowfall for Metuchen of 9.1" from the NWS, as I'm in their 6-12" warning range, as trends have been towards a little less snow in the latest short-term models. So, I'm going to go with a guess of 8.25" in Metuchen. Would still be a superb storm for me.
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Let's wait for Bac to weigh in. Can't trust a wishcaster like you.
Dave Curran on News 12 is concerned that the low pressure is forming north and east of how it was modelled....so when starts to funnel up its to the east of alot of us
He sounds like he's predicting a complete miss for many? I can't figure out what he's saying.
what is so awesome that if you google milf deli, her picture shows up linked to this site to a thread back in 2016,....but warning everything else on the google is NSFW or wife and kids
edit: its actually milfs deli
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he hasnt changed his forecast..not a miss per se but for us to get into the bigger amount we were going to rely on the low pressure, the other low pressure coming from the west by itself is not bringing a whole lot, the phasing of the two is the concern
Yah. You know much more than me so this is probably more likely.
i just have a funny feeling…no knowledge at all…that it won’t be as bad as predicted
Here is my call
NW Jersey: 2-5
Hunterdon/Morris: 3-6
Somerset: 5-8
Middlesex/Union up to Newark and Bergen: 6-9
Mercer/Northern Burlington: 6-9
Inland South Jersey: 8-12
Monmouth/Ocean way from coast: 8-12
coastal NJ down to from Monmouth to AC 10-14...edit could see a tongue of 12-16
Philly: 5-8
NYC: 6-9
realistically covers the low end, covers the high end. See if anything changes with watching the radar for any tweaks
could always underperform, could always overperform
NW Jersey: 2-5
Hunterdon/Morris: 3-6
Somerset: 5-8
Middlesex/Union up to Newark and Bergen: 6-9
Mercer/Northern Burlington: 6-9
Inland South Jersey: 8-12
Monmouth/Ocean way from coast: 8-12
coastal NJ down to from Monmouth to AC 10-14...edit could see a tongue of 12-16
Philly: 5-8
NYC: 6-9
realistically covers the low end, covers the high end. See if anything changes with watching the radar for any tweaks
could always underperform, could always overperform
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Important info, thanks for posting. The models are pretty bad and have been for a long time.
Just started snowing in Belmar. Are they still talking about a heavy snow? Makes all the difference when it comes to shoveling. Seems like its cold enough, and with the expected high winds, there should not be a wet mix.
NWS:
A significant winter storm will move into the region tonight with snow ending from west to east Saturday afternoon. Snow will be moderate to heavy in many areas with rates of 1-2" or more per hour possible at times. North to northwesterly winds will increase early Saturday with gusts of 35-50 mph expected, strongest near the coasts. Blowing snow may linger in some areas through Saturday night with very cold and blustery conditions expected.
To view our updated briefing, visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
To view our updated briefing, visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
They have used the term “heavy snow” to describe rapidly accumulating snow. White out conditions. The one thing I think every forecaster agrees on is this will be a light fluffy snow that is low in moisture content.
That graphic is 6 hours old, no?NWS:
A significant winter storm will move into the region tonight with snow ending from west to east Saturday afternoon. Snow will be moderate to heavy in many areas with rates of 1-2" or more per hour possible at times. North to northwesterly winds will increase early Saturday with gusts of 35-50 mph expected, strongest near the coasts. Blowing snow may linger in some areas through Saturday night with very cold and blustery conditions expected.
To view our updated briefing, visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
man.. really covering your bets there
"Monmouth/Ocean way from coast: 8-12
coastal NJ down to from Monmouth to AC 10-14...edit could see a tongue of 12-16"
Everyone is saying 12+ for most of monmouth/ocean with more as you head easy.. but I'd guess more people live toward the east.. so few people will be near that 10 inch mark you mention.. if any
Thanks. I thought the term blizzard like conditions inferred there would be a heavy rate of snow. The lighter the better.
If you look at a satellite view currently of the East Coast, does anyone see a low pressure area developing? I don’t. Where is the counterclockwise rotation? Where is the low suppose to be around now??
This has been fun to look at...
the weather in pics...
Current Jetstream map.. showing why the system is moving north and east
Windy.com https://www.windy.com/?39.081,-74.615,6
showing how the cold is feeding from one side and moisture from the other.. winds moving down the coast from the northeast.. a noreaster.. which is why this is so "bandy" and will remain so following the jetstream rather than sliding off the coast like so many storms before it.
Sure.. the models take all this stuff and a whole lot more into account.. but its kinda fun to SEE it, imo.
the weather in pics...
Current Jetstream map.. showing why the system is moving north and east
Windy.com https://www.windy.com/?39.081,-74.615,6
showing how the cold is feeding from one side and moisture from the other.. winds moving down the coast from the northeast.. a noreaster.. which is why this is so "bandy" and will remain so following the jetstream rather than sliding off the coast like so many storms before it.
Sure.. the models take all this stuff and a whole lot more into account.. but its kinda fun to SEE it, imo.
I’ll try this one again.
@RU848789 or any other weather expert
I need to make a call on sweet 16 party for daughter and debating with wife. Your best guess at this stage for accumulation of snow and projected stop of precipitation for Eastern Bergen County - Dumont/Bergenfield/Englewood area would be extremely appreciated
@RU848789 or any other weather expert
I need to make a call on sweet 16 party for daughter and debating with wife. Your best guess at this stage for accumulation of snow and projected stop of precipitation for Eastern Bergen County - Dumont/Bergenfield/Englewood area would be extremely appreciated
