OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)

[RU848789]

Here is my call

NW Jersey: 2-5
Hunterdon/Morris: 3-6
Somerset: 5-8
Middlesex/Union up to Newark and Bergen: 6-9
Mercer/Northern Burlington: 6-9
Inland South Jersey: 8-12
Monmouth/Ocean way from coast: 8-12
coastal NJ down to from Monmouth to AC 10-14...edit could see a tongue of 12-16

Philly: 5-8
NYC: 6-9

realistically covers the low end, covers the high end. See if anything changes with watching the radar for any tweaks

could always underperform, could always overperform

Nice job. I'm pretty much in agreement, except for NYC, which I have at 8-12" and Philly, which I have at 4-7", as I think there will be more of a cutoff from NE to SW also. I might add an inch in some other spots, like Middlesex up to Bergen, which I'd have at 7-10", which is why I'm going with 8.25" at my house in Metuchen. I also think we might see a few 17-20" spots right along the Monmouth coast.

Been snowing lightly in Metuchen since about 7:10 pm - a new dusting after 1/4" earlier today, which was gone. 32F. C'mon, want to get to my predicted 8.25" of snow!

 

[IL Lusciato]

Starting in downtown Newark now. Light.

 

[BigEastPhil]

I’ll try this one again.

@RU848789 or any other weather expert

I need to make a call on sweet 16 party for daughter and debating with wife. Your best guess at this stage for accumulation of snow and projected stop of precipitation for Eastern Bergen County - Dumont/Bergenfield/Englewood area would be extremely appreciated

Why don’t you just type in weather channel.com. Good luck with decision and party!

 

[RU848789]

I’ll try this one again.

@RU848789 or any other weather expert

I need to make a call on sweet 16 party for daughter and debating with wife. Your best guess at this stage for accumulation of snow and projected stop of precipitation for Eastern Bergen County - Dumont/Bergenfield/Englewood area would be extremely appreciated

When? If you're talking tomorrow night, the accumulating precip will be over by 2-4 pm and it shouldn't be too hard to clear 8-10" of powdery snow, so if it's in the evening, you probably would be ok - unless the storm seriously overperforms and you get 12-15" or so, which I think is unlikely.

 

[Rutgers1976]

Coating on grass and colder driveway surfaces in my development off route 34 in South Wall/Squan. About 2.5 miles from the ocean here.

 

[Section124]

I didn’t expect the temps to be this high right now. I assume they will drop shortly.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Interesting. Not a single flake in Newark.

It was a quickie!

 

[ugallti]

Why don’t you just type in weather channel.com. Good luck with decision and party!

Appreciate it, I have done that and interested in others opinions which clearly you are too commenting on pg 24 of this thread. Party is at 6:30 so we are moving forward.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

….started again. 32-degrees here.

 

[MadRU]

Snowing here now in Linden, started sticking to cars, parking lot, grass, and sidewalks.

 

[Scarlet16E]

Still waiting for the start in Upper Twp, Cape May County.

 

[RocktheRac]

Dave Curren continues to say storm is movin north and east. Skies clearing in the Boro by noon.

 

[goru1869]

Dave Curren continues to say storm is movin north and east. Skies clearing in the Boro by noon.

BUST

 

[RU848789]

Nice job. I'm pretty much in agreement, except for NYC, which I have at 8-12" and Philly, which I have at 4-7", as I think there will be more of a cutoff from NE to SW also. I might add an inch in some other spots, like Middlesex up to Bergen, which I'd have at 7-10", which is why I'm going with 8.25" at my house in Metuchen. I also think we might see a few 17-20" spots right along the Monmouth coast.

Been snowing lightly in Metuchen since about 7:10 pm - a new dusting after 1/4" earlier today, which was gone. 32F. C'mon, want to get my predicted 8.25"!

We got what looks to be a nice bonus band that was really thin and just happened to come right over us (see pic - Edison, by 287/TPK) from about 7:40 until 8:20 as per the pic and it put down our first 1/2" as of about 8:25 pm. Everything covered, including roads, as I was just out to get takeout (Fire and Flavor - yum!). 31F.

 

[RU848789]

I didn’t expect the temps to be this high right now. I assume they will drop shortly.

Yes, they were supposed to be near 32F through early evening, but should drop as snow starts and cools the column by abosrbing heat from the column to sublimate the flakes in order to saturate the column, so flakes can then make it to the ground. Should be in the low 20s before sunrise.

 

[RUPete]

It started in No. Plfd. but nothing crazy. Starting to cover things but still can see blacktop on the side roads.

 

[rurichdog]

Just a friendly reminder to everyone who will be posting observations tonight & tomorrow to please tell us what town (or relative location in your county) in addition to the meteorological information. We don't all know where "here" is.

 

[RUNYC13]

Sticking in Rumson, Brennan’s is closed so I have no further input on that critical demographic. Go Dawgs 😎

 

[RUinPinehurst]

LOL... The wind is up, and it's snowing sideways here (Boone NC). Drifting has begun. Looks like 3"-4" so far, but those damned drifts! Supposed to end by sunrise. Plows already scheduled for a morning run thru the subdivision.

 

[Jm0513]

Just a friendly reminder to everyone who will be posting observations tonight & tomorrow to please tell us what town (or relative location in your county) in addition to the meteorological information. We don't all know where "here" is.

What if we are in the Witness Security Program and cannot disclose anything about location?

 

[scarlet4life]

This has been fun to look at...

the weather in pics...

Current Jetstream map.. showing why the system is moving north and east

Windy.com https://www.windy.com/?39.081,-74.615,6
showing how the cold is feeding from one side and moisture from the other.. winds moving down the coast from the northeast.. a noreaster.. which is why this is so "bandy" and will remain so following the jetstream rather than sliding off the coast like so many storms before it.

Sure.. the models take all this stuff and a whole lot more into account.. but its kinda fun to SEE it, imo.

I opened the windy.com link and zoomed out some just for giggles. Looks like a hell of a storm off the western Aleutian Islands in Alaska.

 

[Knight Shift]

Snow started about an hour ago and has slowed up/stopped in Wall/Manasquan. It's over. Bust?

 

[Ty Webb]

South Jersey, just a few miles east of 295/NJ Turnpike........... grass is covered completely but pavement just wet.

 

[goru1869]

Snow started about an hour ago and has slowed up/stopped in Wall/Manasquan. It's over. Bust?

Yes, all over.

 

[MulletCork]

Damn most folk can handle 6 inches or so but a foot or more ? Nobody should want that.

 

[WhiteBus]

Interesting. Not a single flake in Newark.

There are tons of flakes in Newark, especially at night.

 

[bac2therac]

Just a friendly reminder to everyone who will be posting observations tonight & tomorrow to please tell us what town (or relative location in your county) in addition to the meteorological information. We don't all know where "here" is.

IMBY

 

[bac2therac]

Damn most folk can handle 6 inches or so but a foot or more ? Nobody should want that.

Lemme tell you about the Hillsborough Deli...

 

[RUinPinehurst]

It started in No. Plfd. but nothing crazy. Starting to cover things but still can see blacktop on the side roads.

A fellow Canuck! I grew up in the west end of NP. I remember a big snow in '76 or so. I rode our snow machine down Rockview Ave way over to Watchung Ave, over the Rt 22 overpass to visit a friend. I think I was the only one on the road that morning.

 

[RocktheRac]

Dave Curran News 12 says 5 inches in Trenton 4 inches in Somerville

 

[Scarlet16E]

Still waiting for the start in Upper Twp, Cape May County.

Started now. Radar was showing snow here for an hour with nome at ground level.

 

[bac2therac]

Dave Curran News 12 says 5 inches in Trenton 4 inches in Somerville

Has that tool ever been right?

 

[RU848789]

FWIW, the 18Z Euro shifted back west a tad with more snow...using Kuchera from here on out, since a met showed me that the NWS is using a snow ratio of 14:1, which is about the same as the Kuchera's 15:1. And certainly so far the snow that's falling is easily 15-20:1 snow to liquid, with very nicely formed dendrites making a nice fluffy snow.

 

[bac2therac]

🌭

 

[knightfan7]

Been snowing for 2.5 hours (Manasquan) but hasn't stuck on the road and sidewalks yet .

I guess we'll only need to shovel 14" instead of 15".

 

[Knight Shift]

Been snowing for 2.5 hours but hasn't stuck on the road and sidewalks yet.

I guess we'll only need to shovel 14" instead of 15".

My snowblower thanks you.

 

[rurichdog]

Dave Curran News 12 says 5 inches in Trenton 4 inches in Somerville

Dave Curran is a weenie roaster

 

[RUTBAY1]

I told the wife we might get 8” and she replied “that’s not very much” ….

She was never very good at math.

 

[bob-loblaw]

Sticking in Rumson, Brennan’s is closed so I have no further input on that critical demographic. Go Dawgs

You missed a good morning crowd

 

[WhiteBus]

I told the wife we might get 8” and she replied “that’s not very much” ….

She was never very good at math.

Have her shovel it. She will be happy with much less going forward! 🤣