OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
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Remember that one… “Fire in the Firehouse “This is even better. In my younger, more wackerish days, I resembled this.
Agreed that more than a foot for 95 and NW of there is a low probability, but nowhere near zero chance (maybe 25%), plus there's probably also a 25% chance of the 95 corridor getting 3-5" vs. the roughly 6-10" forecast, which is why I'm liking the NWS snowfall map as a good compromise among the models. Euro up shortly...
Edit: adding in Steve DiMartino's forecast graphic, which is a little more bullish than the NWS, but certainly plausible, and Lee Goldberg's numbers, which are a little less than the NWS, but also plausible - although Britney said Lee said he's thinking about moving the snow shield NW, so that the 12" line is on the eastern part of the 95 corridor and the SE part of NYC.
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I happened to view the east coast satellite pictures on the NWS site. It appears to me (I could be completely wrong) that the surface low (storm) is forming way down off the coast of north central Florida . I recall that the projection was for it to form off of Georgia/South Carolina coast. It seems the location is significantly south and maybe a little west (not sure) of the projections. I would think that could impact the forecast in some way.
Probably not. For reasons I've never understood, some people from on that sort of thing.
remember that some places might get close to an inch on grassy surfaces from todays light snow...that will be lopped off some of the totals on the model runs, just sayin
And, of course, the Euro moves back east and weaker with less precip (due to a later phase) to almost where the GFS is now. Can't make this up, lol. Still a major snowstorm for 95 and eastward, but not the storm it was advertising the past few runs. Never easy...
Strong winds from this storm system will combine with cold temperatures, resulting in dangerously cold wind chills in many areas tonight and into Saturday.
Back in NJ, it was 95/96. I'll go with Dec '95 because it was before Christmas. A couple of huge storms that winter, though. Stretches of days in a row in which school was canceled and my buddies and I walked for a good hour or two to a local water tower hill to snowboard.
Two years prior was a good year, too, and my first year on a snowboard, but then 95/96 overshadowed it.
Massive Snowstorm to Hit New York City on Saturday January 29, 2022
And, of course, the Euro moves back east and weaker with less precip (due to a later phase) to almost where the GFS is now. Can't make this up, lol. Still a major snowstorm for 95 and eastward, but not the storm it was advertising the past few runs. Never easy...
Actually, in hindsight, the 12Z models, at least the 4 main globals are not all over the place and they're much closer to each other than they've ever been during this whole event progression. Obviously, this is what should happen close to an event, but after all the mayhem (and we'll likely still see some, especially from the meso/CAM/short-range models and of course from the radar), it's fascinating to see. The NWS forecast for the Philly/NYC AFDs, below, is looking pretty good right now, depending of course, on how they account for ratios (still on a quest to find that out), but I included all 4 globals with both Kuchera (roughly 15:1 for most) and the usual 10:1 ratio maps (except the UK, which I only have as a 10:1 map).
Here are the 4 globals at 10:1 ratios...
Here are 3 of the globals with Kuchera ratios (roughly 15:1 or 1.5X that of the 10:1 maps); UK doesn't have a Kuchera map and we think the NWS uses an in-house ratio algorithm for ratios that is likely in the 12-14:1 ratio level for this event...
Hah... Those videos. Just ordered a size-up set of chains for my truck. Current set are the "right size" per the manufacturer (Peerless). But it's a maddeningly tight fit. Always a struggle. They arrive Sunday, supposedly.
Expecting 6"-8" of snow here above Boone NC this afternoon thru tomorrow morning. Winds 20-25 mph with gust to 45. So lots of drifting. Temps in low single digits, with wind-chill towards -10°.
So let's go with under 5.6 for Philly as the bust line. Fair enough?Actually, in hindsight, the 12Z models, at least the 4 main globals are not all over the place and they're much closer to each other than they've ever been during this whole event progression. Obviously, this is what should happen close to an event, but after all the mayhem (and we'll likely still see some, especially from the meso/CAM/short-range models and of course from the radar), it's fascinating to see. The NWS forecast for the Philly/NYC AFDs, below, is looking pretty good right now, depending of course, on how they account for ratios (still on a quest to find that out), but I included all 4 globals with both Kuchera (roughly 15:1 for most) and the usual 10:1 ratio maps (except the UK, which I only have as a 10:1 map).
Here are the 4 globals at 10:1 ratios...
Here are 3 of the globals with Kuchera ratios (roughly 15:1 or 1.5X that of the 10:1 maps); UK doesn't have a Kuchera map and we think the NWS uses an in-house ratio algorithm for ratios that is likely in the 12-14:1 ratio level for this event...
LOL now weather threads are Premium content LOLOLOL you guys are pretty full of yourselves
Who cares... more power to him if he's able to make a living as a Twitter weatherman. I've followed him a lot over the years. He's usually a little more optimistic than most
i would care if I subscribe to him and he’s off by a foot
i am confused...and scared of picking the wrong answer. Old SAT I'd skip that question.
What, are they 16 years old? They all look like they did a few lines, put a needle in their arms, haven't eaten in 3 years, YIKES!
Pass also. The first one looks like a man and the rest have moles on their cheeks.
The updated NWS winter storm and blizzard warnings for Philly/NYC offices and the advisory for NWNJ/SEPA at the bottom...so maps should be out shortly
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown,
Centreville, Easton, and Denton
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville,
New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden,
Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media,
Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to
11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10
inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Near blizzard
conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 12
inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Near blizzard
conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Freehold,
Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
10 to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
of 12 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
of 13 to 17 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
And the NWS advisory for NWNJ/SEPA
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Sussex-Warren-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown,
Centreville, Easton, and Denton
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville,
New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden,
Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media,
Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to
11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10
inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Near blizzard
conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 12
inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Near blizzard
conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Freehold,
Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
10 to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
of 12 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
of 13 to 17 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
And the NWS advisory for NWNJ/SEPA
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Sussex-Warren-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
Ok. Let's get into shoveling plans.
Far Eastern Union County/Morris County line (less than a mile north of 78).
I'm guessing approx 6-8"?
Will there be enough snow down tonight to make it worth a first pass of shoveling?
Wake up early and shovel tomorrow morning?
Far Eastern Union County/Morris County line (less than a mile north of 78).
I'm guessing approx 6-8"?
Will there be enough snow down tonight to make it worth a first pass of shoveling?
Wake up early and shovel tomorrow morning?
I'm going to get a nice buzz and see the conditions at 10/11. Will probably clear it all if it's a couple of inches so less to do in the morning around 6/7.
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