As good as it's always been. Their catering is incredible and a shockingly good value. How do you not miss it here. It's delightful.
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
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As good as it's always been. Their catering is incredible and a shockingly good value. How do you not miss it here. It's delightful.
We felt it was rather insular, and if you were not a native to the peninsula or in investment banking, you were not part of the in crowd (or any crowd). I was quite involved in the community in coaching soccer and little league and other areas. It says a lot that after living there for 12 years, we have nobody we keep in touch with or visit. We also found the schools to be disappointing for science and math. Both kids went to a private 4-8 school and to Biotech/Allied Health high schools. They were quite happy to leave the area too. Quite the opposite experience when we moved back to Wall.
Back in 2009? we had that 25-30" storm. My son had been living here since finishing school. After digging out the front I decide to take him there for dinner since he did they majority of the work. Took a while to get there and couldn't believe the place was absolutely packed. Had to wait a while for a seat at the bar. These Squan folks will put up with a lot but not making it to Leggetts is out of the question.
There's a whole 'nother story about the walk back but it's just too long to tell.
Yep 2009. It was our first winter in OC and I remember thinking WTF I thought it doesn’t snow at the beach
LOL. Yes, when I have an inside joke with one person, the first thing I think is "this is perfect for a public message board."inside joke w/t2k---
Morning update:
Light Snow Possible this AM; Heavy Snow Arrives Tonight... Some light snow is building into PA and may reach central Jersey come mid-morning, leading to a coating risk on all surfaces through late morning. After midday, warming temperatures will limit most accumulations despite the continued flurry risk. Steady snow builds in this evening with heavy snowfall (1"/hr rates) heading into the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Heavy snow is likely to continue at times through midday, with overall totals increased from yesterday's thoughts. (The highest accumulations likely favor into Middlesex County.) Winds will lead to highly variable snowfall totals and continuous blowing and drifting throughout Saturday night; gusts lessen towards Sunday morning.
Start Time
Friday
8:00 PM - 11:00 PM
End Time
Saturday
3:00 PM - 6:00 PM
Snow Totals"
1.0 - 3.0" = 10%
3.0 - 6.0" = 30%
6.0 - 10.0" = 45% (with possible variation to the downside)
10.0 - 14.0" = 15%
Bottom line forecast is 6-9" on pavement
Yeah, I could certainly see that. LS is not as bad in that dept, Well I cant really say that, the LS moms are a serious group
Excuse me sir. Can you take back this appetizer? I ordered 60 degree days and sunny skies.
Who would order a crab cake appetizer and then a larger crab cake entrée? Makes no sense.
If we had to do it all over again, we would have lived in Fair Haven or Sea Bright (but would not want to deal with the flooding). The people we knew in Fair Haven seemed happy there, and the elementary and middle schools seemed a bit better than Rumson's, but they wind up at RFHS. Don't want to give the impression it was terrible. It was OK, but it never felt like home. We liked being within a mile of the beach. Loved Sea Bright and Sandy Hook, and did a lot of mountain bike riding in Hartshorne Woods.
Well, we've certainly gotten the dusting part here in Rocktown this morning. Getting close to an inch already but I am well aware this is just a pass thru. And another this afternoon. Roads totally fine for now.
From North Plainfield to New Brunswick, roads are good with some dusting on the side roads. Seems to have let up for now.
One of their crazy immediate family relatives always drank at my bar. Nutty lady.
Yeah FH is much better and has a tremendous sense of community. The influx of Hoboken/JC/City/Brooklyn residents in the last 18-24 mos has been staggering. Some have struggled, but I think its been a tremendous positivw
You should head over with the truck and offer plowing discounts😉
Why not? Feel free to ignore. #MoveOn
Wake up Numbers, what's going on, we need updates.
Well, I had to wait up for the NWS updates and the 6Z NAM, just to see if the west/snowy trend would continue and if you don't like snow, don't look at the snowmap for the NAM - see below. So, the NWS updated their snowfall maps, below, and they're a little under what I was guessing in the post above an hour or so ago, but I think they're more likely to step up in accumulations more slowly, while I'm mostly just looking at model consensus, which could be a somewhat flawed approach.
The NWS also issued warnings (pink) for all of DE, all of NJ, except Sussex/Warren (adivsories up in blue), SEPA adjacent to SNJ, and for NYC, LI, CT and the Hudson Valley, plus they issued blizzard warnings (orange) for the NJ coastal counties - a little suprised at that, especially since LI/CT didn't get blizzard warnings and are likely to experience higher winds. In addition, fortunately, this will be a dry, powdery snow which should not stick to trees/wires, so even though there will be heavy snow, hopefully, it won’t cause many power outages. Furthermore, with the extended fetch off the ocean, minor coastal flooding is possible.
Anyway, the 12Z NAM is simply insane with 16-26" from 95 to the coast in NJ, NYC, LI, CT and New England and that's at 10:1 ratios - the Kuchera map with a 15:1 ratio, roughly, which is fairly reasonable given how cold it will be (teens to mid-20s) shows 24-40" in these areas. I'm nearly certain the NAM is overdoing it as occurs sometimes, but even if the precip is 33% too high, that would still be 16-28" vis the Kuchera algorithm. Below is the 10:1 map and the Kuchera map (roughly 15:1 ratio). If the other models follow even somewhat, we're going to see increases in those snowfall predictions. Speaking of which, the 06 RDPS was a bit less snowy than 0Z, while the 6Z GFS was nearly identical to 0Z (both quite snowy, but not NAM like), so far no evidence of a trend towards a huge solution. Like I've been saying, an explosive, but fragile setup...
So, the 12Z NAM cut precip/snow by about half, as it phased a bit later meaning it was a bit further east and had less precip for our area (and everywhere else), indicating that the 6Z run was likely well overdone, as many were thinking. Now it's on the low side of most models - will say it again, explosive, but fragile setup. On the flip side, the last of the 6Z runs, the Euro went snowier, so my guess is the NWS snowfall maps are probably looking pretty good right now. Will also be interesting to see if the 12Z NAM portends any trend in lower snowfall amounts or if it was just a typical NAM hiccup. Just woke up, so haven't had time to dive deeply into it. Posted the 12Z NAM Kuchera and 10:1 maps below, for each but think the Kuchera ~15:1 ratios will better capture snow accumulations, although 15:1 might be a tad high, so the actualy could be a combo of the two.
And yes the light snow now was expected and discussed yesterday - could be 1/2" or so today - we have a nice dusting right now.
lol,, just woke up 20 minutes ago and posted an update a second ago - operating on 3-4 hours of sleep per night for several days and doubt I'll do more than catnap tonight. It's an addiction - and don't laugh, but it took me 28 years living here to finally get a monster floodlight for the back yard, so I could see the snow really well at night from my recliner (could see it ok before, but this is way better).
Also, the weather weenies are now in a tizzy over the NAM "taking away" their giant storm, as if that 6Z run was really going to happen. And, of course, everyone is afraid we just entered Phase 6 of MesoBanding's Phases of Tracking, written several years aog - it's funny because it's so true - posted the whole thing earlier in the thread...
Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks
You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that!”
Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks
You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that!”
Sounds like you need a ring floodlight and you can watch it from your recliner on your phone. Thanks again for the updates. Sounds like the low end for Trenton is 8” or so? What do you think the ceiling is?
He's getting old. Back in the day, he wouldn't sleep for an entire week between work and an extreme weather event.
Ah... So that's what that glow was last night. I thought maybe there was another gas main explosion like the one that basically lit up all the streets of Piscataway, Edison, and Metuchen years back and caused airliner pilots to report in a possible nuclear detonation.
But nope, not an explosion sending flames and a mushroom cloud 900 feet up. It's just you admiring the bombogenesis. From your recliner. 😀
The gas pipeline explosion near Edison Woods. That was crazy. I could see and hear it from No. Plfd. It sounded like a giant blowtorch.
I'm good. Why are a couple of you guys all worked up?
I really think we have a shot at a big cut off. Some in the western sections will be truly disappointed
Yup. It literally lit up the streets all around for miles. Middle of the night and it was like somebody had turned on a massive floodlight covering a 10 mile radius.
And yes, it was very loud. Before knowing what it was, I actually sent the wife and kids to her mom's house to get them farther from whatever it might be.
Which coincidentally created a rare opportunity, back then, to dial 1.800.HOO.KERS and have a little party.
What? I didn't want to die alone, is all. Stop judging me! 😀
Cocaine.
Texas Eastern Pipeline right by the Red Roof Inn and apartment complex next door at 287/New Durham Rd. My wife was several months pregnant at the time and we heard it from 1.4 miles away, but thought it was the Mobil chemical research facility 1/2 mile away and knowing a thing or two about chemical fires and toxic gas plumes, we were in the car and headed N on Route 1 literally within 90 seconds - could see the flames from our 2nd floor on the way out. Came back 15 minutes later when it was reported to be a gas line explosion/fire. Had a very good friend living in Durham Woods apts where it happened and he ran out with what he could carry (was around 11 pm) and said it was the scariest thing ever for him - his building burned down a little while later when it eventually caught fire. Luckily it didn't happen during the day, as there was a playground, usually full of kids, that was immediately incinerated.
I could only imagine what it sounded like right there. And far be it from me to judge anyone.
Lived on the other side of Edison at the time. It shook the house.
Wow! Hard to believe that this actually could have been worse. And, yes, it was Durham Woods, not Edison.
the HRRR which is probably way out of it range right now....isnt all that bad
Adding in Kuchera map for the RDPS/RGEM, which I think will capture snow accumulations better with the ~15:1 ratios. The HRRR is simply out of its useful range right now. Do agree it's likely folks not too far NW of 95 will likely see a steep gradient in snowfall amounts.
That long ago now? Guess I only sent the wife and kid, not kids, to her mom's then. N must have been an infant.
That was over 25 years ago!! We drove over to Stelton Ave diner was as close as they let us get if I recall correctly.
I can't believe it has been 25 years, but that would make sense since Mrs. Numbers was pregnant with Numbers Jr. (from Numbers' post). Still remember that night like it was yesterday because it was the strangest thing I had ever seen and heard at the time, but then I started posting here...I kid, I kid!
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