OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
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thanks for the offer, we changed our flight to leave Friday morning.
That's a good summary. In my emails, I usually start with a short summary and in last night's I said prepare for 1-18" of snow and that was only partly tongue-in-cheek. Such an incredibly sensitive setup and forecast that could go either end of that range or more likely somwhere in the middle, where the shore gets the most and NW gets the least.Best summary out there in non-weenie language for the shore folks, @e5fdny and @knightfan7 and @koleszar (have no fear, will be firing up the snowblower Thursday morning and afternoon!) :
"It’s still too early to be sure ....there are differences in the severity of impact depending on who you put your faith in about the forecasting — i.e. the American vs. European models.
The European model suggests that a snowstorm with up to 50 mph wind gusts could potentially create blizzard-like conditions and up to two feet of snow in New Jersey and elsewhere, while the American model suggests that the storm could stay far enough out to sea that it would result in up to three inches of snow with strong winds but less severe gusts."
"In addition to the snow, coastal flooding and beach erosion are a concern for the Shore."
NJ weekend nor’easter: ‘Confidence is increasing’ of significant winter storm
There are differences in the severity of impact depending on who you put your faith in about the forecasting — i.e. the American vs. European models.www.app.com
Very good discussion from the NWS-Philly, highlighting the high uncertainty and sensitivity of the setup and evolution on the models to small changes, as well as noting we'll have better sampling of the systems for today's 12Z runs, plus tonight's 0Z runs will have data from the weather flights today, so hopefully we'll be zeroing in on a better forecast by tonight.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
322 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No surprises here, as we continue to watch a potentially major
winter storm affecting portions of the Eastern Seaboard late Friday
and Saturday. Sizable differences in model guidance remain,
primarily owing to the placement of a shortwave trough which will be
moving through western Canada today, and another shortwave well to
its north-northeast. The tracks of, and interactions between, these
shortwaves will be the primary drivers of a developing surface low
and probable bomb cyclone off the US East Coast Friday and Saturday.
Similar to last night, the majority of tonight`s 26.00z guidance had
an overall eastward look relative to their more westward 25.12z
counterparts. The phasing between the shortwaves generally happened
later, with a more positive tilt longwave trough as it approached
the Southeast coast. This then results in a further east track of
the surface low. Even the EC, which remains on the western edge and
still shows a high impact event, was a little more east. And other
models such as the GFS and UKMET are even further east and would be
quite low impact for our region. But there are still more western
solutions on the table, such as the 0z NAM. Upper air changes on
most of the models were quite subtle, but as has been discussed,
downstream output will be contingent on very minor changes occurring
over the next 24 hours. Today`s trends will certainly be important.
With all of the shortwave energy at least over land now, sampling
will be steadily improving, and "big picture" model solutions should
start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Ultimately, there was not a whole lot of change to the gridded
forecast. Likely PoPs are included for most of the area, a bit lower
across the far west. In terms of timing, it still looks like there
will be some light snow around during the day on Friday, with the
main event Friday night through at least midday Saturday. Snow
remains the favored ptype. There may be just a bit of brief mixing
near the coast at the onset Friday evening, with Friday high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, but if there is precipitation
to be had, it will fall as snow. We will have to watch the winds as
well, especially around the back side of the strengthening storm as
it starts to depart. A closer track would also mean higher winds and
potential for blizzard conditions near the coast. We will be closely
monitoring tidal levels at the coast as well, as astronomical tides
will be on the rise heading into the weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
322 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No surprises here, as we continue to watch a potentially major
winter storm affecting portions of the Eastern Seaboard late Friday
and Saturday. Sizable differences in model guidance remain,
primarily owing to the placement of a shortwave trough which will be
moving through western Canada today, and another shortwave well to
its north-northeast. The tracks of, and interactions between, these
shortwaves will be the primary drivers of a developing surface low
and probable bomb cyclone off the US East Coast Friday and Saturday.
Similar to last night, the majority of tonight`s 26.00z guidance had
an overall eastward look relative to their more westward 25.12z
counterparts. The phasing between the shortwaves generally happened
later, with a more positive tilt longwave trough as it approached
the Southeast coast. This then results in a further east track of
the surface low. Even the EC, which remains on the western edge and
still shows a high impact event, was a little more east. And other
models such as the GFS and UKMET are even further east and would be
quite low impact for our region. But there are still more western
solutions on the table, such as the 0z NAM. Upper air changes on
most of the models were quite subtle, but as has been discussed,
downstream output will be contingent on very minor changes occurring
over the next 24 hours. Today`s trends will certainly be important.
With all of the shortwave energy at least over land now, sampling
will be steadily improving, and "big picture" model solutions should
start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Ultimately, there was not a whole lot of change to the gridded
forecast. Likely PoPs are included for most of the area, a bit lower
across the far west. In terms of timing, it still looks like there
will be some light snow around during the day on Friday, with the
main event Friday night through at least midday Saturday. Snow
remains the favored ptype. There may be just a bit of brief mixing
near the coast at the onset Friday evening, with Friday high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, but if there is precipitation
to be had, it will fall as snow. We will have to watch the winds as
well, especially around the back side of the strengthening storm as
it starts to depart. A closer track would also mean higher winds and
potential for blizzard conditions near the coast. We will be closely
monitoring tidal levels at the coast as well, as astronomical tides
will be on the rise heading into the weekend.
Bumping this, since the 6Z Euro just came in and it's another snow bomb for our area, with 12-24" for the eastern 2/3 of NJ and all of NYC/LI (and 8-12" for SWNJ and NWNJ, although high ratios would get NWNJ over a foot),as per the graphic at the very bottom of the quoted post, which i updated. Tough to forecast with this much model spread...6Z models are all in, except for the Euro. I have to say that last night's CMC might end up being where we end up, i.e., right in the middle of the two camps, but maybe not. The NAM is less snowy than it looked like it was going to be last night, while the RDPS is snowier than last night, as is the GFS, by a bit. I also included my favorite fairly new "model" which is the NBM or National Blend of Models, which is exactly that a blend of the models. It's just a bit snowier than last night's CMC, which looked to be in the middle of the suite.
All the other caveats from last night apply: highly uncertain forecast that is very sensitive to where and when the northern and southern stream systems start merging/phasing to produce our nor'easter that comes up the coast, as that phasing has a huge impact on the track of the coastal low, which is everythng with regard to how much snow we get. A track to the 40N/70W benchmark like the Euro, hammers us with snow, while the rest of the modesl are a bit east of that track which is mostly why they show less snow. The models should also be greatly enhanced tonight, as the systems will be on shore from the Pacific and sampled better, plus sampling will occur today from NOAA weather flights.
Edit: 6Z Euro is another snowbomb, so model mayhem continues...
Also, this is 100% a weenie post for "shits and giggles" as bac said yesterday, since I'm going to show the 6Z Euro snowfall map for our area, featuring the Kuchera ratio, which looks to be about 15-20" of snow per 1" of liquid (normally we get 10:1 snow, but with a colder storm those ratios are usually higher), as well as the normal 10:1 ratio, below. This graphic is likely just a fantasy, but it does show we could easily get 1-2 feet of snow if the snowier Euro scenario comes to fruition. Keep in mind the Euro is the only model showing such a snowy solution...
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Did you see the Kuchera maps from the 6z Euro?
Send in the 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
The weenies over on americanwx are going to jump off the roof if the 12z runs start windshield wiping. I'll be in meetings all day, so I will likely miss the fireworks.
Yeah, I edited the post you quoted a few minutes ago to add the 6Z Euro maps, because they're just so insane, even though the Kuchera, in particular, is very likely a fantasy. The weather boards are in full weenie mode over the Euro run, but on 33andrain, a number of the pro mets are being appropriately cautious, pointing out that the Euro is still alone in showing such a snowy solution and that it might not pan out that way, which I've been trying to convey here too.
It’s his schtick. It’s all an act to piss people off and he knows it pisses people off, so he keeps doing it.
I just can't imagine what kind of character defects one would have to possess to be able to act like an idiot and believe that it's somehow appealing.
The squirrels were fighting in the trees yesterday. Something obviously has them on edge and I'm really hoping it's not the weather.
It could be worse - at least the robins aren't flocking in large numbers. When you see that, look out.
It could be worse - at least the robins aren't flocking in large numbers. When you see that, look out.
There are a few like that on these boards. I have to assume they were beaten up and ignored growing up, and now they are compensating by acting like an idiot for attention, while hiding behind the anonymity of a message board.
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C'mon over to Wall. All over our yard the past 2 days, and they were looking for any water they could find. They have not appeared today.
Keep checking, over and over again. Try to do the flight change via the app and don't bother calling AA, unless you have status with them and can get bumped to the front of the line at the call center. But be decisive, once you find a flight that sort of works timing wise, choose it even it has a connection that you didn't previously have or want. An extra day in Key West will always be worth it too.
These opportunities to change flights get swallowed up incredibly fast w/ winter storms cancelling a ton of flights. The storm I had to shovel myself out of at the parking lot that I mentioned earlier, I was in Sioux Falls and had a good flight back the next day via Chicago. I waited a bit and it was long gone, and I had to do an overnight in Denver instead.
EDIT - I saw your later reply, good call moving the flight. Have a drink in Key West for the rest of us while we are shoveling out of this mess.
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Could we do it this way Numbers: Select a few towns scattered across the state and give shorthand forecasts for each? Thanks.Bumping this, since the 6Z Euro just came in and it's another snow bomb for our area, with 12-24" for the eastern 2/3 of NJ and all of NYC/LI (and 8-12" for SWNJ and NWNJ, although high ratios would get NWNJ over a foot),as per the graphic at the very bottom of the quoted post, which i updated. Tough to forecast with this much model spread...
Also, this is 100% a weenie post for "shits and giggles" as bac said yesterday, since I'm going to show the 6Z Euro snowfall map for our area, featuring the Kuchera ratio, which looks to be about 15-20" of snow per 1" of liquid (normally we get 10:1 snow, but with a colder storm those ratios are usually higher), as well as the normal 10:1 ratio, below. This graphic is likely just a fantasy, but it does show we could easily get 1-2 feet of snow if the snowier Euro scenario comes to fruition. Keep in mind the Euro is the only model showing such a snowy solution...
So I dragged the snowblower out of the shed, wheeled it to the garage, primed it and it started on the first pull.
This one's gonna be a whiff.
This one's gonna be a whiff.
Your posts like this are the polar opposite of #s in length, but much less useful--WTF does your post mean?
12z nam was more like the Euro. What to understand are the clown maps are overdone. We have two models in the maybe 8-16 camp with the others in the 2-6
We opted to fly into Miami and drive down on Friday, keeping the flight into Key West was just too expensive. Definitely worth the extra money all around as opposed to the possibility if sitting in PHL for 1-3 days.
6Z models are all in, except for the Euro. I have to say that last night's CMC might end up being where we end up, i.e., right in the middle of the two camps, but maybe not. The NAM is less snowy than it looked like it was going to be last night, while the RDPS is snowier than last night, as is the GFS, by a bit. I also included my favorite fairly new "model" which is the NBM or National Blend of Models, which is exactly that a blend of the models. It's just a bit snowier than last night's CMC, which looked to be in the middle of the suite.
All the other caveats from last night apply: highly uncertain forecast that is very sensitive to where and when the northern and southern stream systems start merging/phasing to produce our nor'easter that comes up the coast, as that phasing has a huge impact on the track of the coastal low, which is everythng with regard to how much snow we get. A track to the 40N/70W benchmark like the Euro, hammers us with snow, while the rest of the modesl are a bit east of that track which is mostly why they show less snow. The models should also be greatly enhanced tonight, as the systems will be on shore from the Pacific and sampled better, plus sampling will occur today from NOAA weather flights.
Edit: 6Z Euro is another snowbomb, so model mayhem continues...
Time for the 12Z model thread (7 am EST data inputs - supposedly the 2 systems were somewhat onshore and sampled with this run). Let's see which "camp" is favored if any. Well, the first volley is from the NAM and we just got NAM-ed as many weenies say, as the NAM is an absolute bombogenesis nuke. The map says it all - and it's still snowing at the end of its run at 7 pm Sat. More to come...
The 12Z RDPS (similar to the NAM as it's a high resolution, mesoscale, short range model that only goes out 84 hours) says no way to the NAM, lol. It actually moved the low about 25 miles east, so it's just a moderate snowfall for most.
Well, the great divide continues, as the 12Z GFS actually moved about 25 miles east of where it was at 6Z, meaning even less snow for our area - just a minor snowfall for 95 and a moderate snowfall at the coast. The hope of having things more aligned this morning is kind of gone, lol.
And the CMC shifted a good 25 miles east with the low, significantly decreasing snowfall for our area vs. 0Z last night. We now have the NAM and the several previous runs of the Euro (but 12Z isn't out yet) vs. the GFS, CMC and RDPS moving east, which is not where one wants to be if you want snow.
The UK actually moved west about 25 miles, but its starting point was the furthest east of the models last night, so it ends up being just a little less snowy than the GFS/CMC, i.e., it's minor to a miss for 95 and minor to moderate for the coast.
And while the 12Z Euro certainly moved east vs. 0Z and 6Z, it still is a significant snowstorm for the 95 corridor (4-8") and a major snowstorm just SE of 95 to the coast (7-10") and for NYC, while the eastern half of LI and SE New England get crushed with well over a foot of snow. Now we try to figure out what happens. Certainly the models are closer to each other now, so a blend would likely give something like 3-5" for 95 and 5-8" for the coast and 1-3" NW. Waiting on the NBM (national blend of models) to update.
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Never pisses me off. I actually enjoy certain types of trolling posts, if they're clever or funny and not mean-spirited middle-school clique posts.
His are lame, repetitive and utterly predictable. So I just habitually scan right past his posts, ignoring them like we'd ignore somebody else's 3 year old acting out for attention at the mall.
What's kind of sad is that those sorts of troll posts appear to comprise ~98% of all his posts on all subjects. There's virtually never any substance to them. That's almost the sum total of his contributions.
But whatever. Each to their own. Easy to scan right past them.
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The drive to Key West from Miami is incredible. You are surrounded by water for much of it. If you have it timed with sunset, even better but bring a good pair of shades. Sometimes convertibles aren't much more expensive in Florida too, that would be worth looking into.
Quick comment: if the snowy scenario plays out (big if), that will mean likely blizzard conditions near the coast, as well as probable coastal flooding, as winds would likely be gusting to at least 50 mph and maybe more, which would also mean some power outages - on the plus side, it would be quite cold (the NAM is showing temps below 25F for about the whole storm), meaning the snow should be fairly dry and not stick to everything, reducing the chance of power outages from the weight of the snow.
Like you, I recognize he's not stupid. But I actually don't think it's an act either. So I think it's less about acting the idiot, and more about a general lack of substance.
The overwhelming majority of his posts on all subjects here contribute virtually nothing of substance. You never see him comment meaningfully on football or basketball. Same with CE type posts, he very rarely offers any substantive opinions about an issue. With him, it's just trolling responses to stuff others have posted.
What're ya gonna do? Is what it is.
They attacked my Holly Tree the other day and a group of 25 of them took off a thousand berries in an hour or so of dive bombing. Right outside my front window and entertaining to watch every year.
Good work.
But... while I did the same snow-blower prep earlier in the season, I haven't filled gas tank in it and my gas can is nearly empty. If I fail to get gas, that might throw a monkey wrench into the whiffiness of the storm. And me being me, I would call it about 50/50 odds that I get gas before Saturday.
And while I contacted a guy to install a whole house generator, the installation won't happen before this storm - and maybe not for a couple months.
And the final nail in the coffin is that, at the moment, I cannot shovel or operate the snow-blower due to an injury.
So snowmaggeddon is a distinct possibility.
so basically still the tale of two somewhat extremes. 2" to a foot + .Time for the 12Z model thread (7 am EST data inputs - supposedly the 2 systems were somewhat onshore and sampled with this run). Let's see which "camp" is favored if any. Well, the first volley is from the NAM and we just got NAM-ed as many weenies say, as the NAM is an absolute bombogenesis nuke. The map says it all - and it's still snowing at the end of its run at 7 pm Sat. More to come...
The 12Z RDPS (similar to the NAM as it's a high resolution, mesoscale, short range model that only goes out 84 hours) says no way to the NAM, lol. It actually moved the low about 25 miles east, so it's just a moderate snowfall for most.
Looks like instead of leaving for Myrtle on Sunday morning its gonna be Monday. And either way a messy drive on 95.
I get to watch the playoffs but my wife is going to be really pissed.
ah ha. I was wondering how you made out on those projects.
For the sampling effect. I got the blower out, filled , and first pull start. USed it for 3 runs a month ago and shredded the auger belt. But replaced and running nice again FWIW. But as you can read I am planning a trip south for Sunday am so we're screwed.
For the 10 years I've lived at my house, the 6 seasons I didn't prep my snowblower it snowed pretty good. 2 of those years like 2+ feet days.
And the 4 years I had my snowblower serviced and ready to go, we saw 3" or less.
I got it serviced again last month, which means we're getting next to nothing if the pattern holds.
And the 4 years I had my snowblower serviced and ready to go, we saw 3" or less.
I got it serviced again last month, which means we're getting next to nothing if the pattern holds.
We did that ride a couple of years ago. MIA - KW. I was fun but I'd rather fly into KW after having done the drive. Have fun.
Daily say something positive about somebody (good for the soul) - I think he has some decent pharma and vaccine posts.
Hey man, I’m trying here…
I absolutely love that drive down thru the Keys. Once you hit Largo you know you're in the zone and driving over the Ocean is just so cool. Brings back memories of when a child and my parents did it on the OLD roads and bridges that were tiny. My mom was freaked the whole way. I think some parts of them are still there and used for fishing piers.
Neither one "has to" cave to the other. They could be at odds even while we're watching radar
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