It’s not hatred. It’s jealousy powered by strong inferiority complexes and poor upbringing. It’s the dumb kids trying to bully the smart kid. They never grew out of it.
Or am I being too mean? 🙂
OT: Significant Winter Storm 2/27-28 (esp along/N of 78); and update on Fri storm (p. 6)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Or am I being too mean? 🙂
It wasn't making fun of anyone. It was food for thought. Waiting to board a plane early this morning, this thread and the tweet from Ms. Akambi crossed paths in morning reading. She is a great follow on Twitter.
The food for thought for the 2 (or is it 3?) mean girls who try their best to derail each one of these threads and fail miserably each time. They entertain themselves and nobody else, but they make asses of themselves. Food left on table.
Mockery is a form of hatred. It often stems from jealousy or inferiority. It's negative energy and wasted time and motion. Some thrive on it though, but it makes them look weak and inferior.
Thw weather threads provoke a lot of interesting and fun discussions sans the 2 or 3 clowns who are in a corner playing with themselves.
The tweet required some reading between the lines, I guess? I boarded the plane and pretty much forgot about it until I was tagged. Sorry for the confusion.
Honest question. What is wrong with you? If everything you say is intended to make you look stupid, you are doing a great job.
Dan Zarrow 101.5 as of this morning
This looks like a good map to keep people aware but not hype too much. This will mainly be an evening and overnight impact event although it probably starts later in the afternoon
What a change today! Depending on where you measure 4-7" of snow! Melting fast though.
Hoping its not to bad Monday into Tuesday as I have to work in Orangeburg NY at 7am Tuesday morning. Hopefully all plowed by then if we get anything.
Regarding March 3-4 for those who are interested.
dtwxrisk.medium.com
Regarding March 3-4 for those who are interested.
ABOUT MARCH 3-4MAJOR EASTERN US LOW — A Nor’easter and MAJOR Northeast US Snowstorm OR an Ohio…
The next system - the one for March 3–4 — s really interesting because it keeps jumping around with various possible solutions. Initially…
dtwxrisk.medium.com
Been a bit busy with life (Melody Reunion was last night and recovery today was longer, given age, lol, plus I had to do a bunch of errands/chores), so just getting to this. Interestingly, the NWS did increase snowfall amounts a bit, as per the maps below from this morning, but not nearly as much as most models are showing (as per the model blend map below). This was especially true for the NYC office, as there is now a significant discontinuity between the NYC/Philly offices, with NYC being more bullish, especially near/along 78. NWS-NYC has 2-3" along 78 from Newark to NE Somerset County, while NWS-Philly has only 1" along 78 from NE Somerset County out to Clinton with <1" south of there. I'm also surprised they didn't explain the reasoning behind discounting most of the models showing at least a couple of inches in much of CNJ south of 78 and for all of NYC.For Mon/Tues, the NWS is still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a bit snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense; they're still showing a bit less than the model blend of the major models.
Given that the 12Z models which came out noon-ish today mostly held serve showing even an inch or so down to 276/195 and a few inches from there up to 78 (i.e., most of CNJ) and several inches along/N of 78 and 5-7" along/N of 80 (except for the NAM, which showed little snow S of 78), it will be interesting to see if the NWS adjusts snowfall upwards with this afternoon's packages - I think they will. Having said that, areas S of 78 are the most likely to see some or mostly rain (and maybe all rain close to 276/195 and south of there), which would wash away anything less than 1-2" of snow (about 0.5-0.75" of total liqud equivalent precip is forecast).
In addition, there is also some signal that there could be a warm layer aloft, melting the snow a few thousand feet up, but having it freeze into sleet falling through the colder layer towards the surface - this is most likely to occur south of 80 (north of there is more likely to stay below 32F throughout the entire atmospheric column). Sleet is just as impactful as snow for the same frozen mass (except for visibility issues) - it just is only about 1/3 as deep on the ground (and melts slower, due to the much lower surface area exposed per unit volume for each crystal). Still ~36 hours from when the models initiated (7 am EST) to when the event will start tomorrow late afternoon/early evening.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
3 of the 4 major global, long-range models show a major snowstorm (8" or more) for the eastern US on 3/3-4, with the Euro and CMC showing major snowfall for much of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, while the UK shows the major snowfall N of 80 and the GFS shows a modest snowstorm for areas N of 84 (and only major way north of there). This is actually decent agreement on a winter storm signal, but we're 6 days out, so too early for any serious predictions - yesterday, for example, the model spread for major snow was from centering on Richmond to centering on Albany, so the models have converged a fair amount, but there's still large uncertainty. Worth watching, though, and if we still see consensus on a major winter storm impacting our area (even if it's mostly rain for 95 but snow inland, as is always possible) in 36-48 hours, it'll be time for a thread on it.Hoping its not to bad Monday into Tuesday as I have to work in Orangeburg NY at 7am Tuesday morning. Hopefully all plowed by then if we get anything.
Regarding March 3-4 for those who are interested.
ABOUT MARCH 3-4MAJOR EASTERN US LOW — A Nor’easter and MAJOR Northeast US Snowstorm OR an Ohio…
The next system - the one for March 3–4 — s really interesting because it keeps jumping around with various possible solutions. Initially…
He's a troll - everything he says is simply designed to get a reaction from anyone. If everyone ignored him, he'd simply disappear.
Dan Zarrow 101.5 as of this morning
That's pretty similar to what the NWS had this morning, but is much less bullish than most of the models. Could easily see those swaths moved south about 10-20 miles in the next updates, putting most of CNJ in the 1-3" swath with 78 being a 3 or 4" line instead of a 1 or 2" line now.
I'm not an aviation expert (need @RU4Real for that), but if model consensus verifies and we get 3-4" in Newark, including some heavier snowbands in the 8 pm to 1 am timeframe (looks like the heaviest precip), there could be some delays in flights, but probably not cancellations, as planes can fly safely in the snow, but they will need some time to clear the runways and de-ice the planes.
LOL. It's pretty much gone. No plowing done here. It's off the roads already. Can already see most of the yard- no lawn- we have xeriscaping (stones and native plans) so that there is nothing to water.
Peter. Watch your cornhole budMore than one for me.
Weather impacts on commercial aviation are extremely difficult to predict. @RU848789 is correct in his assessment that the local EWR weather is unlikely to disrupt your flight - and aviation forecasts support this, currently - however this is a large storm making its way across the northern half of the country and it's likely that multiple flights will be impacted due to aircraft availability, routing and crew availability.
Always track your service aircraft, for any flight, using the "where is this plane coming from" feature in the airline app.
Been a bit busy with life (Melody Reunion was last night and recovery today was longer, given age, lol, plus I had to do a bunch of errands/chores), so just getting to this. Interestingly, the NWS did increase snowfall amounts a bit, as per the maps below from this morning, but not nearly as much as most models are showing (as per the model blend map below). This was especially true for the NYC office, as there is now a significant discontinuity between the NYC/Philly offices, with NYC being more bullish, especially near/along 78. NWS-NYC has 2-3" along 78 from Newark to NE Somerset County, while NWS-Philly has only 1" along 78 from NE Somerset County out to Clinton with <1" south of there. I'm also surprised they didn't explain the reasoning behind discounting most of the models showing at least a couple of inches in much of CNJ south of 78 and for all of NYC.
Given that the 12Z models which came out noon-ish today mostly held serve showing even an inch or so down to 276/195 and a few inches from there up to 78 (i.e., most of CNJ) and several inches along/N of 78 and 5-7" along/N of 80 (except for the NAM, which showed little snow S of 78), it will be interesting to see if the NWS adjusts snowfall upwards with this afternoon's packages - I think they will. Having said that, areas S of 78 are the most likely to see some or mostly rain (and maybe all rain close to 276/195 and south of there), which would wash away anything less than 1-2" of snow (about 0.5-0.75" of total liqud equivalent precip is forecast).
In addition, there is also some signal that there could be a warm layer aloft, melting the snow a few thousand feet up, but having it freeze into sleet falling through the colder layer towards the surface - this is most likely to occur south of 80 (north of there is more likely to stay below 32F throughout the entire atmospheric column). Sleet is just as impactful as snow for the same frozen mass (except for visibility issues) - it just is only about 1/3 as deep on the ground (and melts slower, due to the much lower surface area exposed per unit volume for each crystal). Still ~36 hours from when the models initiated (7 am EST) to when the event will start tomorrow late afternoon/early evening.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
I'll admit, I was pleased to see my predictions for the NWS next forecast package coming largely to fruition, as they increased snowfall amounts along and south of 78, including the 95 corridor from NYC to at least New Brunswick, as well as addressed the inter-office discrepancies discussed above. The 3" line moved from about 80 down to 78, whereas this morning 78 was roughly a 1" snowfall line and the 1" line now is much further south, from about Ewing to Keyport. In addition, the 4" line is now a bit south of 80.
As a result, advisories have been posted by the NWS-Philly office for Monroe (Poconos) and Sussex for 4-6" of snow, for Northampton/Carbon (PA) and Warren/Morris for 3-5" of snow (including a bit of sleet), and for Berks/Upper Bucks, Hunterdon and Somerset for 1-3' of snow/sleet with a changeover to rain probable; all of these areas could also see a bit of freezing rain on top of the snow. The NWS-NYC posted advisories for 3-5" of snow for Western Union/Western Essex and Passaic, Bergen and Rockland/Westchester and points N of there (and for most of CT).
Significant snow probably holds off until after rush hour on Monday evening, but road conditions in the advisory areas will likely be a problem all night and for the Tuesday morning commute. Also, potentially heavy, wet snow (especially between 78 and 80 where mostly wet snow wil fall - it'll be drier N of 80 where it will be colder), if areas get 5-6" or more (possible), there could be scattered downed trees/power outages.
No advisories for the next tier of counties along/near the 95 corridor (including NENJ/NYC/LI) and down towards 195/276, but those areas are generally in the 1-2" swath, so some snow is forecast before the changeover to rain and there is still some upside on those snow numbers in some of the models at this point. Given how this winter has gone, I'll take 1-2" snow/sleet and then rain; I'm going with a guess of 2.5" for Metuchen. One last point: the precip will start near sunset on Monday and continue into the wee hours of Tuesday, meaning there will not be any snow accumulation issues related to indirect sunlight (snow may have a hard time sticking initially, though, since temps will be in the mid-30s when the precip starts.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58901-22823-storm-threat/page/13/
Oh and not today, Satan. Not today…
Or tomorrow.🙂
Or tomorrow.🙂
Probably not much at the Shore, but could be a nice overperformer for most of CNJ away from the coast and N of maybe a New Hope to Perth Amboy line. And for the lazy among us, most of any accumulating snow in CNJ will be gone by midday Tuesday with temps in the low 40s. I'll hopefully be shoveling in the middle of the night, because I can.Oh and not today, Satan. Not today…
Or tomorrow.🙂
Wife flies out Tuesday morning. Hoping for no traffic on the roads to EWR and no delays for her.
All depends where she's coming from. If it's NW of EWR, could be an issue, if not, probably not much of an issue.
Tonight's 0Z models largely didn't change much, so it's unlikely that the various weather sources will change the forecasts they already had by much, if at all. Along/N of 80 seems locked in to get 4-7" (with little to no rain), while snowfall will decrease from that amount to about 2-4" near/along 78 (with some sleet and even rain likely) with 1-2" south of 78 down to the Raritan (with a change to rain likely and up to 1/2" of rainfall) with maybe 1/2" to 1" down to 276/195 with heavy rain after that. Obviously, the gradient/uncertainty are very high, so a place like NB, for example, could honestly get anywhere from <1" (low end) to 4-6" (high end), with 1-2" being most likely. Let's see what the NWS says at 4 am.
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