Oh no you didn't 4Real..Numbers will be peeved you started a new thread. Well he was sort of sleeping on this threat for overnight and tomorrow so just as well.
Short term models are bullish on 6 inches from nyc on east to LI...where the NWS has upped their totals to 5-8 for eastern LI. This is going to be intriguing to watch because with virtually no hype and everything trend west each run people are going to wake up surprised. How quickly do things cool will determine whether its slushy or we get a legit 2-5 inches which will shut down schools and snarl traffic until it warms again by midday
Next weeks storm is just so cluttered right now because the models are all over the place with both systems,
Why would I be peeved? I've never had an issue with multiple weather threads - other people have, as they don't like too many OT threads - we could have 10 weather threads on snow for all I care. Or have you forgotten I like snow?
I assume you're kidding with your sleeping comment, but in case you're not, I posted about the potential last night, then reported on the significant shift in the models with today's 12Z runs early this afternoon, including a prediction that the NWS would up their accumulations and issue WWAdvisories, both of which they did about 3 hours later, essentially matching what I thought they'd be.
Those numbers may still be wrong, because as I've said and as 4Real and you and all the pros have said, this is a very borderline situation, where we're relying on dynamics (intensity) to bring down enough cold air from aloft to cool the column and change the rain to snow. High bust potential in either direction: could be much lower if we don't get the intensity and if we don't get enough cold air filtering in from the NW, but it could be a fair amount higher if some of the models are correct with the amount of precip and if the changeover is relatively quick.
And since I haven't said it in this thread, you see a lot of people saying it's "too warm" for the snow to accumulate. That will be true when it first starts snowing, as the melting rate will likely exceed the snowfall rate, but assuming we get enough intensity (like >1/4" snow/hr), the snow will start to accumulate, even on roads (especially at night and on untreated roads), and the morning commute (at least until 8-9 am - will get into the low 40s by noon) could be a mess - although I'd expect the major roads that are salted and have high traffic to be ok.
