OT: Snow - a little tonight, maybe more Mon-Tues
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GFS is saying long duration light snows which could add up to 6 inches...of course how much falls during the days changes things and lower amounts on paved surfaces where the general public cares about not how much falls on the grass...plus talk of inverted trough with this system which is always unpredictable in location and setup so again lots still out to lunch in terms of making a forecast
what is great is that it seems like the idea of strong snowstorm off the table right now
what is great is that it seems like the idea of strong snowstorm off the table right now
The 12z GFS shows the very cold air coming by next weekend.
Temperatures in the single digits and below zero.
Do we get snow with it remains to be seen.
Temperatures in the single digits and below zero.
Do we get snow with it remains to be seen.
Groundhog has admitted he lied just days after predicting an early Spring
The potential for a big storm is taking a big hit this evening. A big storm will form but it will be too far east to give us a big storm for the Tristate region. In turn the first storm will effect the second storm because it will take all the energy with it. So yes there could be some lighter snow this upcoming week but a big storm seem unlikely. Also next weekend looks like it will be the coldest of the season as temps will be well below freezing for highs and also another storm to track for around Presidents' Day. So again some snow this upcoming week but I don't think any big snows.
Looks like its going to come down to where that inverted trough sets up as to whether this is a benign light snow event or possibly gives us 4-6 inches
Pretty good model consensus that first wave misses well to our east. The second wave...more model consensus of a small event with period of light snows from Monday night to Tuesday night giving the area a general 1-3 inches but have to watch where the inverted trough may set up where its possible those amounts could double.
The just out NAM was further northwest for the first wave which verbatim would give decents snow to LI tomorrow and scrape nyc and jersey shore with a couple inches
Amy Freeze just said temps are going to be mid to upper 30's so unlikely to amount to anything in accumulation.
The latest models show Cape Cod in the jackpot zone for the Monday storm with over a foot there. Eastern Long Island is in the 3-6+ zone. If this storm came 100 miles more west everyone would get a nice accumulation.
The inverted trough for Tuesday shows that someone will likely see heavy snow for several hours but to locate where is impossible to do so right now.
Frigid temps for next week and more storms for presidents day week.
Frigid temps for next week and more storms for presidents day week.
Amy Freeze is horrible. Great to look at (for bac, at least), but she has no meteorology degree and often shows a serious lack of knowledge of basic meteorological concepts. She's correct that if the storm stays far enough offshore, temps on the NW fringe will be in the mid/upper 30s and any light snow won't accumulate. What she fails to mention is that if the storm comes closer and the precip intensity is greater, the system will generate colder temps (around freezing) via dynamic cooling and moderate snowfall would accumulate.
That's why the track is so important and the current models are indicating a significant shift to the NW, as we've seen for every storm in this unusual year (strong El Nino and very warm SST's off the east coast, leading storms to want to track along the baroclinic zone, closer to the coast). Still not close enough to give significant snows on Monday west of the Hudson, but NYC and the immediate Jersey shore could easily get a couple of inches (much more on LI) and any further shift NW in the track would likely bring significant snows further inland in NJ. Need to watch this one. And the 2nd system for late Monday/Tuesday is all over the map with an inch or two to 3-6" on the table - very hard to predict inverted trough events.
Nj
Sorry but unnecessary Amy Freeze bashing...do you think she ia making her own forecast? No...she is using and conferring with what Smith Goldberg and Evans say
Sorry but unnecessary Amy Freeze bashing...do you think she ia making her own forecast? No...she is using and conferring with what Smith Goldberg and Evans say
A big storm is highly unlikely for our region. Light accumulation is possible for the NYC region with a coating to 2 inches which includes westchester. NE NJ Western Ct. As you go further east in Ct totals will go up as you go towards RI. So for Long Island right now I would say 3 to 6 inches at this time from tomorrow am to overnight Monday.
The next issue is Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper low to our west plus a low tries to develop south of our region plus an inverted trough tried to develop. How does this all interact with all the pieces is hard to figure out. Again the inverted trough can drop several inches of snow but where? Will have to see how it plays out.
Gets cold for the weekend and then more fun stuff the following week.
The next issue is Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper low to our west plus a low tries to develop south of our region plus an inverted trough tried to develop. How does this all interact with all the pieces is hard to figure out. Again the inverted trough can drop several inches of snow but where? Will have to see how it plays out.
Gets cold for the weekend and then more fun stuff the following week.
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(wonders when he ^ is gonna figure out that everyone is ignoring him)
Unnecessary is in the eye of the beholder. I hate that these TV stations put on pretty boys (Lonnie Quinn and Mike Woods for example) and weather babes (Freeze and a dozen others) and pretend that they know what they're talking about.
Storm Warnings and Advisories are up for the snow event for Monday. Just how far west the heaviest snow gets is to be watched.
Then watch the next storm to see if we get anything from it.
Then watch the next storm to see if we get anything from it.
For those of you in New England a blizzard warning has been issued for eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod. Over a foot of snow and very strong winds are likely.
but she does...she is just regurgitating what Lee and Jeff are saying. Tomorrow in the city is likely to be snow that doesn't stick so she isn't wrong on that and its from their work.
and just because she doesn't have a degree is no reason to hate on her. I think she does a really good job when she is on of the outlining the various scenarios...Id rather see her than Dave Curran blunder the forecast on News 12
As opposed to the geniuses reporting the actual news? It's TV and people want to look at pretty people. Does anyone under the age of 70 actually get their weather from the local 6pm news?
Given the choice for all of the weather people to visit our fire station in Sea Bright during a storm, Amy is at the top of the list. Not even a close second place in the NYC area.
so tomorrow the coastal scrape the area...some light snow making it as far as western jersey but we are talking about dustings and accumulations only on grassy surfaces as any show will be light and temps over 32. NYC could get an inch on the grassy surfaces and going to to eastern LI 3-6 is possible. Portions of the jersey shore could get accumulations of an inch but they also figure to be a bit on the warm side
then we watch the next wave for the inverted trough in the period from late Monday night to Tuesday night to see what we get. Often its very hard to pinpoint where that will set up but look for some light snow that could accumulated 1-3 inches
then we watch the next wave for the inverted trough in the period from late Monday night to Tuesday night to see what we get. Often its very hard to pinpoint where that will set up but look for some light snow that could accumulated 1-3 inches
Looks like the Nws is zeroing in on south jersey se pa and delaware as the most likely areas the inverted trough sets up as WinterStormWatches have been hoisted there for 4-8 inches tonight through tomorrow
Elsewhere the rest of the area is looking at a general 1-3 inch event with marginal temps on Tuesday
Elsewhere the rest of the area is looking at a general 1-3 inch event with marginal temps on Tuesday
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Looking at Mt. Holly's home page right now, there are no winter storm warnings indicated, yet, in the area you mention.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.
It's been snowing at a pretty good clip for at least an hour here. Not sticking yet. Some coastal flooding in the usual places, Brielle Rd and areas surrounding the Glimmer Glass, for those familiar with the area.
Pretty big whif. Nothing in Northern Monmouth to Woodbridge except a flurry and mostly drizzle.
You are really getting snow? It was raining in Sea Bright up to Hazlet, and nothing in Woodbridge.
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