Yea, they bounced back. Or maybe the chart on marketwatch is wrong. Looks like a mini flash crash.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Yea, they bounced back. Or maybe the chart on marketwatch is wrong. Looks like a mini flash crash.
Here is what’s gonna to happen. After the elections, it’s going to get real. You will be told that we are in a recession and it’s the fault of the GOP. After Q1 2023 401k’s will be down another 15%. Most will act surprised. I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Stay well.
I rarely get to watch CNBC live.....due to work and then after-school family stuff. I'm a YouTube warrior for clips.
Germany's Verbund BASF (10 square kilometers) in Ludwigshafen shutting down.
Operations cant be scaled down so the operation is closing. New facilities are emerging in China (where Xi just announced China is going full totalitarian with open hostility for US and the West). BASF is world's largest ammonia producer. BASF had gas costs at sites €2.2 billion higher than last year (costs were rising even before Russian/Ukraine business).
For Europe this is like the rivets popping on the Titanic - they are going Rust Belt - worse famines globally.
"BERLIN—German chemicals giant BASF SE BASFY 0.26%increase; green up pointing triangle said it would downsize permanently in Europe, kindling concerns that persistently high energy prices could lead to a deindustrialization of the continent...
'The challenging framework conditions in Europe endanger the international competitiveness of European producers and force us to adapt our cost structures as quickly as possible and also permanently' BASF Chief Executive Martin Brudermüller said Wednesday....'Uncertainties due to the enormous number of regulations planned by the EU are weighing on the chemical industry' ”
www.wsj.com
Oh and undersea internet cables were cut off coasts of Scotland and France - media seems mostly oblivious
www.highnorthnews.com
Operations cant be scaled down so the operation is closing. New facilities are emerging in China (where Xi just announced China is going full totalitarian with open hostility for US and the West). BASF is world's largest ammonia producer. BASF had gas costs at sites €2.2 billion higher than last year (costs were rising even before Russian/Ukraine business).
For Europe this is like the rivets popping on the Titanic - they are going Rust Belt - worse famines globally.
"BERLIN—German chemicals giant BASF SE BASFY 0.26%increase; green up pointing triangle said it would downsize permanently in Europe, kindling concerns that persistently high energy prices could lead to a deindustrialization of the continent...
'The challenging framework conditions in Europe endanger the international competitiveness of European producers and force us to adapt our cost structures as quickly as possible and also permanently' BASF Chief Executive Martin Brudermüller said Wednesday....'Uncertainties due to the enormous number of regulations planned by the EU are weighing on the chemical industry' ”
High Energy Prices in Europe Push BASF to Cut Costs Permanently
Elevated fuel costs have led many European manufacturers to look to boost their presence in the U.S. and Asia instead.
www.wsj.com
Oh and undersea internet cables were cut off coasts of Scotland and France - media seems mostly oblivious
Fiber-optic Submarine Cable near Faroe and Shetland Islands Damaged; Mediterranean Cables also Cut
Damage to subsea communication cables near the Faroe and Shetlands Islands left much of the islands without internet access. Subsea fiber-optics cables in the south of France were also cut in what authorities call acts of sabotage.
Germany's Verbund BASF (10 square kilometers) in Ludwigshafen shutting down.
Operations cant be scaled down so the operation is closing. New facilities are emerging in China (where Xi just announced China is going full totalitarian with open hostility for US and the West). BASF is world's largest ammonia producer. BASF had gas costs at sites €2.2 billion higher than last year (costs were rising even before Russian/Ukraine business).
For Europe this is like the rivets popping on the Titanic - they are going Rust Belt - worse famines globally.
"BERLIN—German chemicals giant BASF SE BASFY 0.26%increase; green up pointing triangle said it would downsize permanently in Europe, kindling concerns that persistently high energy prices could lead to a deindustrialization of the continent...
'The challenging framework conditions in Europe endanger the international competitiveness of European producers and force us to adapt our cost structures as quickly as possible and also permanently' BASF Chief Executive Martin Brudermüller said Wednesday....'Uncertainties due to the enormous number of regulations planned by the EU are weighing on the chemical industry' ”
High Energy Prices in Europe Push BASF to Cut Costs Permanently
Elevated fuel costs have led many European manufacturers to look to boost their presence in the U.S. and Asia instead.
Oh and undersea internet cables were cut off coasts of Scotland and France - media seems mostly oblivious
Fiber-optic Submarine Cable near Faroe and Shetland Islands Damaged; Mediterranean Cables also Cut
Damage to subsea communication cables near the Faroe and Shetlands Islands left much of the islands without internet access. Subsea fiber-optics cables in the south of France were also cut in what authorities call acts of sabotage.
Rust belt is a good call. The whole continent will become the rust belt.
Annual inflation in Germany, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 10.4% in October from 10% in September, Germany's Destatis reported on Friday. This reading came in higher than the market expectation of 10.1%.
Toynbee said great Civilizations aren't murdered - they commit suicide. What else could it be when western nations destroy their economies while transferring them to rising totalitarian nations who openly tell you that you're a target?
Rising social tensions will be enormous - they have barbarians inside the gate as well as outside
As expected, AAPL goes Kaboom after amazing earnings report:
www.cnbc.com
Apple stock closes out its best day since 2020
Apple stock had its best day since 2020 on Friday, closing up 7.5%.
Per Bloomberg, "Federal Reserve officials will maintain their resolutely hawkish stance next week, laying the groundwork for interest rates reaching 5% by March 2023, moves that seem likely to lead to a US and global recession, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said."
Nice try. The data is clear. Inflation has been flat for the past 3 months with even housing going deflationary. The stupid Fed can't ignore it much longer (whether by their decision or someone else's decision).
Keep whistling as you walk quickly past the graveyard....
That said, I "think" I'll go with Bloomberg's reporting over your misinterpretation of the data. But, as always, good luck to you per your investment choices. Keep hope alive....
My POV always wins in the end and the market figures it out months before the Fed does. Once you learn the math, you'll get it to. Spend some time educating yourself and your investments choices will also improve. Good luck! I'm rooting for you.
LOL. At this point I'll just assume you lost your short term memory in an accident. I'm going to start calling you Leonard Shelby from Momento.
Haven't seen that movie in years! The data is the data. Can't argue with math.LOL. At this point I'll just assume you lost your short term memory in an accident. I'm going to start calling you Leonard Shelby from Momento.
Good article on funds/etfs with the most wide-moat stocks.
www.morningstar.com
The Best High-Quality Stock Funds
These top-rated mutual funds and ETFs favor wide-moat stocks—and are good investments for a recession.
I’ve owned Vanguard Dividend Growth for decades. I held a modest position while working to avoid the realized income but increased my position significantly when I retired.Good article on funds/etfs with the most wide-moat stocks.
The Best High-Quality Stock Funds
These top-rated mutual funds and ETFs favor wide-moat stocks—and are good investments for a recession.
We use VIG in several of our accounts, which is pretty similar. It has outperformed the VOO by 4-5% YTD. In our main brokerage account (E-Trade) we have VIG in a 16% position, just like VTV to form the more conservative portion of the portfolio.
I see Musk is going to try to get out of paying the severance packages to the executives he fired. He claims it was for cause but the contracts state they must have done something criminal or violated company policy to be removed for cause.
Is this another lawsuit he cannot win?
Is this another lawsuit he cannot win?
For those that missed it last week, Powell's favor inflation indicator tanked in Q3:
"There was some good news on the inflation front. The chain-weighted price index, a cost-of-living measure that adjusts for consumer behavior, rose 4.1% for the quarter, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 5.3% gain. Also, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 4.2%, down sharply from 7.3% in the prior quarter."
The PCE is still a lagging indicator, but even these BS metrics are starting to tell the truth. Inflation has crashed and in the real world has been flat for 3 months and counting.
www.nbcnews.com
"There was some good news on the inflation front. The chain-weighted price index, a cost-of-living measure that adjusts for consumer behavior, rose 4.1% for the quarter, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 5.3% gain. Also, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 4.2%, down sharply from 7.3% in the prior quarter."
The PCE is still a lagging indicator, but even these BS metrics are starting to tell the truth. Inflation has crashed and in the real world has been flat for 3 months and counting.
U.S. economy grew 2.6% in the third quarter, better than expected, as a six-month downturn is reversed
The growth was due in large part to a narrowing trade deficit, which economists expected and consider to be a one-off occurrence that won’t be repeated in future quarters.
www.nbcnews.com
Right on cue 😀.For those that missed it last week, Powell's favor inflation indicator tanked in Q3:
"There was some good news on the inflation front. The chain-weighted price index, a cost-of-living measure that adjusts for consumer behavior, rose 4.1% for the quarter, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 5.3% gain. Also, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 4.2%, down sharply from 7.3% in the prior quarter."
The PCE is still a lagging indicator, but even these BS metrics are starting to tell the truth. Inflation has crashed and in the real world has been flat for 3 months and counting.
U.S. economy grew 2.6% in the third quarter, better than expected, as a six-month downturn is reversed
The growth was due in large part to a narrowing trade deficit, which economists expected and consider to be a one-off occurrence that won’t be repeated in future quarters.
Inflation denier. LOL. Keep repeating it, and it will come true, eventually. Until then, we march toward a Fed rate of 5% in early 2023.
Don’t think it’ll hit 5%. Market taps uncle and the Fed will provide a ceiling at 4.75%.
Sorry for the bad news. Your precious inflation is going down like a stone. It's a mathematical certainty. Funny thing is, even if inflation re-spikes due to COVID coming back or Putin going crazy again, the CPI will keep going down for another 6-9 months due to the lag. LOL!
Government metrics at its finest.
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My "precious inflation," ay? You spin it as if I want inflation to continue. Not sure how you got that. I call it like I see it though. While I certainly hope inflation is short-lived, I don't see how that'll happen. But you keep calm and carry on....
Inflation has been flat for 3 months and counting. Learn the math and then call it "like you see it". LOL! Did you know that the last CPI reading included housing data from before March (i.e., when the Fed started raising rates)?
If it wasn't so sad, it would be comical.
You are confusing terms. CPI MoM has greatly decelerated from well over 1.0% to well under 0.5%. It hasn't gone deflationary yet. However, if you use real-time housing data instead of CPI housing which lags 9-12 month, both headline and core MoM would be negative/deflationary over the past 3 months.
Goldman now projects a Fed rate of 5% in March. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-now-sees-fed-055400433.html
Not in the investment industry but just for fun I looked back at the Fed rates highest was 19.1 in 1981. My mother had cd's paying somewhere around 17%. One of my customers told me, this was around 1980, that he just secured a business loan at 24% and was happy to have gotten it! 5% would seem tame in comparison.
Euro zone inflation hits record high of 10.7% as growth slows sharply
Preliminary data on Monday showed headline inflation came in at an annual 10.7% this month — the highest ever on record.
- Preliminary data on Monday from Europe’s statistics office showed headline inflation came in at an annual 10.7% this month.
- This represents the highest ever monthly reading since the euro zone’s formation. The 19-member bloc has faced higher prices, particularly on energy and food, for the past 12 months.
Great time for tech and electronics
Retailers have too much inventory and fewer buyers
I just bought a $350 Dell gaming display for $150 new (hopefully no switched innards as Dell can do).
AMD and Intel are both introducing new cpus but sales are down and they still have older cpus that are fast.
Locally the prices rises slowed but a lot of them froze high (not gas)
I've seen a lot of scaled back hours (Chinese takeout closed one day a week and local hardware dropped half day Sundays).
My focus now is derivatives since I found out my bank has 65 trillion in derivatives and if a bank fails derivatives have to be sorted out before any FDIC obligations. Its been my unprofessional opinion that banks, financials, markets etc have probably lost track of a lot of things (See movie "Margin Call" with Stanley Tucci). In 2008 crisis the WSJ reported computer models meant to send "red flags" never sent them because the models were measuring the wrong variables. With so many mergers and acquisitions, along with rising complexity and reliance on electronics (and lying governments) I think things have gone untracked (dispersal of responsibility etc)
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