OT: Winter Storm Sat Night/Sunday (2/17-18)?

[RU848789]

Today's 12Z model suite is highly favorable for a winter storm to affect the Philly-NJ-NYC area Sat evening/Sun morning. The details are still highly uncertain, but right now, every model shows at least some snow for the I-95 corridor and points NW of there, with some mixing of rain towards the coast. The Euro and CMC are significant snowfalls, while the GFS is some snow (a few inches) to rain for I-95 and the coast. Even the NAM at the end of its run (84 hours) shows snow for most.

Still a highly uncertain event outcome, but a few to several inches of snow are certainly a possibility - as is mostly rain for at least I-95 and the coast. A complete miss and a complete rainstorm are looking less likely, but still possible, since we're still 4.5 days away. I see little value in posting model maps, since they're going to change significantly, especially, perhaps, once all the systems are over land and sampled better (for better model accuracy) by about tomorrow night. Stay tuned.

One other point: this is likely to be a quick-hitter with most/all of the precip coming at night between maybe 6 pm Saturday and 4 am Sunday, so no solar issues to be concerned about, if that timing holds, plus a short storm with decent rates will easily accumulate on all surfaces, even if they were warmer during the day. After some initial melting on paved surfaces, once one gets the snowfall rate above the melting rate (probably only 1/4" per hour melting rate at night with 40F initial surface temps, but assuming ~32F air temps), which shouldn't be too hard, further accumulation is simple, as the snow is then falling on snow, which is at 32F, by definition, plus there's no melting rate associated with solar input at night (duh). Just need for it to not be rain, obviously.

Tonight's 00Z (7 pm EST data input) model runs show most models (but not all) with moderate to significant snowfall for most of the Philly-NYC corridor. The Euro is a significant snowstorm (4-8") for all but the SE NJ coast (due to rain), the CMC is more like 3-6" with less towards the coast (again due to rain), the NAM is 3-6" for I-95 and NW, but sharply less SE of 95 and even no snow for the immediate coast, and the GFS is almost a complete whiff to the SE, with <1" for most and rain for the coast.

Still 3 days out, as the precip is scheduled to start in the early evening on Saturday (maybe late afternoon), so uncertainty is still pretty high given how close a call it looks to be for temps, especially towards the coast and even a 25 mile track movement or a 6 hour timing change, both of which are well within model errors at this point, could make for substantiall different outcomes, i.e., mostly rain is still on the table, as is a general miss to our SE. However, if the snowier forecasts are correct, temps will be around 32F in the early evening and dropping a few degrees overnight, so snow should accumulate on all surfaces at night. Will likely see NWS maps in the morning.

 

[RU4Real]

Seems about right for now:

 

[APKnight]

Nope. Rain only. That’s what iPhone weather app says and it’s never wrong.

 

[RocktheRac]

Dan Zarrow reports 3 scenarios. One is the GFS all rain, track to north. Two is the Nam snowy on the edge scenario though surface temps will struggle to support all snow. North and Northwest NJ 2-5 before potentially changing to rain. Three is the Euro all snow. Along the NJ Turnpike 6-8 and 2-4 Northwest and Southeast of that.
He is leaning toward the middle of the road with some accumulations. Thinks Euro is too bullish.

 

[RU848789]

Tonight's 00Z (7 pm EST data input) model runs show most models (but not all) with moderate to significant snowfall for most of the Philly-NYC corridor. The Euro is a significant snowstorm (4-8") for all but the SE NJ coast (due to rain), the CMC is more like 3-6" with less towards the coast (again due to rain), the NAM is 3-6" for I-95 and NW, but sharply less SE of 95 and even no snow for the immediate coast, and the GFS is almost a complete whiff to the SE, with <1" for most and rain for the coast.

Still 3 days out, as the precip is scheduled to start in the early evening on Saturday (maybe late afternoon), so uncertainty is still pretty high given how close a call it looks to be for temps, especially towards the coast and even a 25 mile track movement or a 6 hour timing change, both of which are well within model errors at this point, could make for substantiall different outcomes, i.e., mostly rain is still on the table, as is a general miss to our SE. However, if the snowier forecasts are correct, temps will be around 32F in the early evening and dropping a few degrees overnight, so snow should accumulate on all surfaces at night. Will likely see NWS maps in the morning.

NWS maps went up this morning. Agree with @RU4Real that these are good calls at this point, as a general 2-4" is probably most likely and it's not that far from the high and low outcomes, i.e., should the realistic ceiling be reached of 4-7" or should the realistic bottom of 1-2" (for most - 0" is still in play along/SE of 95) be reached. Including both Philly and NYC office maps here, so they're in one place (and static, not live)...

 

[PSUTony]

"Fourier Transform-based Monte Carlo style simulations" Wow flashbacks to graduate school......

 

[RU848789]

NWS maps went up this morning. Agree with @RU4Real that these are good calls at this point, as a general 2-4" is probably most likely and it's not that far from the high and low outcomes, i.e., should the realistic ceiling be reached of 4-7" or should the realistic bottom of 1-2" (for most - 0" is still in play along/SE of 95) be reached. Including both Philly and NYC office maps here, so they're in one place (and static, not live)...

Not much change with the 12Z model suite, except now there are no major models that show a miss. GFS shows a 2-3" event for most of the Philly-NYC corridor (less towards the coast), CMC shows a 2-4" event for I-95, again with less towards the coast, Euro shows a solid 3-6" event for I-95, with up to 8" inland and down to 1-2" at the coast, and the NAM shows a 3-6" event for I-95, with a sharp cutoff SE of 95 (nada for the coast). UK looks to be like the Euro, but I don't have all the maps.

I think the NWS maps look good with a general 2-4" for I-95, but I could see them tweaking snowfall amounts up to 4-6" for areas 10-20 miles NW of 95 and north of 78 (but not too far NW, where less precip is likely, i.e.., maybe not NW of Warren/Sussex). Still 60 hours before the event starts, around sunset on Saturday, so much can still change, as some pretty tiny changes in track/timing/temps could have large impacts on the outcome, especially for I-95. It's not an understatement, right now, to say that NB could easily get anywhere from 1-8". With the pieces of energy coming onshore tonight, we should get a better idea of the outcome with tonight's model runs. I hope.

While driving conditions will likely be impacted with snow accumulating Sat night into early Sunday, on the plus side for the snow haters, temps on Sunday will be well above 32F by late morning and into the mid-40s for highs - streets should be fine by late morning and most of the snow should be gone by Monday night.

Likely to be in the 60s next Tues/Weds...

 

[RU848789]

"Fourier Transform-based Monte Carlo style simulations" Wow flashbacks to graduate school......

Flashbacks are good! Did a bit of that with some CFD work here ~20+ years ago. Not sure I could solve a differential equation anymore, lol...

 

[rurichdog]

New snow maps are up. Sussex, Warren, Morris counties solidly 4-6 inch zone.

 

[RU4Real]

Forecast track would appear to have shifted north. Expected totals for south of I-95 corridor just dropped.

 

[RU848789]

Not much change with the 12Z model suite, except now there are no major models that show a miss. GFS shows a 2-3" event for most of the Philly-NYC corridor (less towards the coast), CMC shows a 2-4" event for I-95, again with less towards the coast, Euro shows a solid 3-6" event for I-95, with up to 8" inland and down to 1-2" at the coast, and the NAM shows a 3-6" event for I-95, with a sharp cutoff SE of 95 (nada for the coast). UK looks to be like the Euro, but I don't have all the maps.

I think the NWS maps look good with a general 2-4" for I-95, but I could see them tweaking snowfall amounts up to 4-6" for areas 10-20 miles NW of 95 and north of 78 (but not too far NW, where less precip is likely, i.e.., maybe not NW of Warren/Sussex). Still 60 hours before the event starts, around sunset on Saturday, so much can still change, as some pretty tiny changes in track/timing/temps could have large impacts on the outcome, especially for I-95. It's not an understatement, right now, to say that NB could easily get anywhere from 1-8". With the pieces of energy coming onshore tonight, we should get a better idea of the outcome with tonight's model runs. I hope.

While driving conditions will likely be impacted with snow accumulating Sat night into early Sunday, on the plus side for the snow haters, temps on Sunday will be well above 32F by late morning and into the mid-40s for highs - streets should be fine by late morning and most of the snow should be gone by Monday night.

Likely to be in the 60s next Tues/Weds...

NWS listened to me, lol, and increased snowfall amounts N/W to 4-6". 95 is the battleground with 2-4", but could easily be 6" if no mixing or an inch or so if more rain. Close call at this range and probably right up to the event; they also reduced amounts a bit just SE of 95. Medford and Freehold were both 2" this morning and are now 1" or less, while NB/Trenton stayed at 3/2", so no reduction there. Philly and NYC maps updated below...

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

While driving conditions will likely be impacted with snow accumulating Sat night into early Sunday, on the plus side for the snow haters, temps on Sunday will be well above 32F by late morning and into the mid-40s for highs - streets should be fine by late morning and most of the snow should be gone by Monday night.

Likely to be in the 60s next Tues/Weds...

even so, between the state and the county I will expect about about 2 tons of salt dumped on my road....can't have that stuff sitting around. will need to make room to buy more next year to maintain budget.

 

[Knight Shift]

Forecast track would appear to have shifted north. Expected totals for south of I-95 corridor just dropped.

 

[RU848789]

NWS listened to me, lol, and increased snowfall amounts N/W to 4-6". 95 is the battleground with 2-4", but could easily be 6" if no mixing or an inch or so if more rain. Close call at this range and probably right up to the event; they also reduced amounts a bit just SE of 95. Medford and Freehold were both 2" this morning and are now 1" or less, while NB/Trenton stayed at 3/2", so no reduction there. Philly and NYC maps updated below...

So, we went from somewhat of a model consensus, at least for a minimum of a few inches for most of the area (and more by some models) earlier today, to model mayhem. The NAM had a pretty big hit with 4-8" area wide and lesser amounts confined to far SE NJ, but both the GFS and CMC had solutions further offshore leading to only an inch or maybe two for the area. The UK was a modest hit and the Euro continued with about a 3-6" hit from about DC to Boston with less at the coast.

It did turn out that the main piece of energy was still just offshore from northern Mexico at 7 pm EST (00Z), when the models initialized, so that could be part of the issue - let's hope we see more consenus and consistency with tomorrow's 12Z, when all the players are over land and well sampled. I imagine the NWS will not change snowfall forecasts much, but I also doubt they put watches up, since confidence in reaching 6" anywhere has to be low right now.

 

[Knight Shift]

Looks like Mount Holly upped totals by about 2" or Freehold and North, but not as far north as Sussex. New Brunswick is at 5" right now. @RU848789 is getting excited to shake up the snow globe and get a wet slot in Metuchen?

 

[RU848789]

So, we went from somewhat of a model consensus, at least for a minimum of a few inches for most of the area (and more by some models) earlier today, to model mayhem. The NAM had a pretty big hit with 4-8" area wide and lesser amounts confined to far SE NJ, but both the GFS and CMC had solutions further offshore leading to only an inch or maybe two for the area. The UK was a modest hit and the Euro continued with about a 3-6" hit from about DC to Boston with less at the coast.

It did turn out that the main piece of energy was still just offshore from northern Mexico at 7 pm EST (00Z), when the models initialized, so that could be part of the issue - let's hope we see more consenus and consistency with tomorrow's 12Z, when all the players are over land and well sampled. I imagine the NWS will not change snowfall forecasts much, but I also doubt they put watches up, since confidence in reaching 6" anywhere has to be low right now.

Wow, was I way wrong about the NWS. They're simply ignoring the GFS and CMC and going with the Euro/NAM/UK blend for their forecast and have issued winter storm watches for counties along and NW of I-95 (north of Philly, through NYC and LI), for 4-6" of snow Sat night/Sun morning (and up to 7" N/E of NYC). Their snowfall amounts were also increased SE of 95 relative to yestreday, although they do still decrease towards the coast fairly rapidly with the 1" line from about Dover, DE to Toms River. They are the experts...

Nice write-up from the NWS on their rationale for the forecast, i.e., which models they used and how this was a pretty boderline call to go with watches, which might later need to be converted to warnings or just dropped to advisories (50/50 on that).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Attention focused on a potent northern stream shortwave diving
southeast from near the Alaska coast starting this morning, reaching
the Lower Great Lakes/Midwest by Saturday evening, and lifting to
near the New England coast by Sunday morning. The GFS seems to have
its usual progressive bias with the ridging/damming high ahead of
this system, so have opted to go with a non-GFS solution, leaning
towards a blend of the NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/SREF.

This shortwave will help develop a coastal low along the mid-
Atlantic coast Saturday evening, that tracks northeast to a position
southeast of Cape Cod by Sunday morning as it deepens. This track
takes the storm to the south/east of the 40N/70W bench mark.

Given the expected track, and rate of deepening, and with an assist
from the isallobaric component of the wind, that winds will quickly
go from SE to E to NE as the precipitation begins. This will limit
the amount of mixing with rain along the S shore of Long Island
during the start of precipitation Saturday evening, with the
transition to all snow last over the S Fork of Long Island.
Given that it appears that this change over will occur before
the heaviest precipitation arrives (except maybe along the S
Fork of Long Island by an hour or so), there is the potential
for a significant impact across most of the Tri-State. The other
limiting factors are QPF, which will be the least over NW
portions of the Tri- State, and the relatively quick movement of
the storm. There is the potential though for a quick hit of
heavy precipitation in banding to the NW of the storm - with
some indications that band could extend from NE NJ into SW CT.
However, this band could end up father NW or SE than progged.

Based on the above, in collaboration with WPC and surrounding
offices have issued a Winter Storm Watch from 00z-12Z Sunday for all
but Orange and Putnam Counties, and for the potential for 4-7 inches
of snow. Orange and Putnam Counties were excluded, because it is
more likely than not that there will not be sufficient QPF there to
have warning level snowfall. Elsewhere, confidence is at 50 percent
for warning level snowfall with uncertainty due to QPF amount,
banding placement, and along the S shore of Long Island how
quickly any mix with rain changes to all snow. As with any
watch, there is the potential for it to be converted to a
warning (about 50 percent of the time), or converted to an
advisory or cancelled (the other roughly 50 percent of the
time).

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[RU848789]

Looks like Mount Holly upped totals by about 2" or Freehold and North, but not as far north as Sussex. New Brunswick is at 5" right now. @RU848789 is getting excited to shake up the snow globe and get a wet slot in Metuchen?

Nothing wrong with a wet slot in Metuchen, like my wife just said...

You did post an old snow map - gotta leave the map posting to the experts, lol...

 

[Knight Shift]

Nothing wrong with a wet slot in Metuchen, like my wife just said...

You did post an old snow map - gotta leave the map posting to the experts, lol...

Just doing my part to make this thread suck.

 

[Knight Shift]

Nothing wrong with a wet slot in Metuchen, like my wife just said...

You did post an old snow map - gotta leave the map posting to the experts, lol...

Funny. I posted the same map you did but it shows up as the old map. Operator error or wishful thinkin

 

[RU848789]

Funny. I posted the same map you did but it shows up as the old map. Operator error or wishful thinkin

I had map posting issues for years, as old maps would get posted, plus, the maps I was posting were "live" not static, meaning when the source map updated at the NWS, the map in the thread updated, which I hated. Still does that if one just pastes directly into a post, as far as I know. By luck, one day a couple of years ago, I discovered that posting first to FB and then pasting from FB to here meant it was a static map, so that's what I do now. I'm sure there's some technical explanation using HTML jargon, but I had asked about how to do that for years, here and of the NWS and nobody had any suggestions other than uploading to some separate account on line, which would've been a PITA.

 

[RU848789]

Just doing my part to make this thread suck.

Don't sell yourself short judge...

 

[Knight Shift]

Don't sell yourself short judge...

On a serious note, we were planning on driving up from Monmouth County to New Brunswick Saturday evening and coming home at about midnight. This storm may put a dent in those plans.

 

[RU4Real]

On a serious note, we were planning on driving up from Monmouth County to New Brunswick Saturday evening and coming home at about midnight. This storm may put a dent in those plans.

I don't believe this. I know you must have a fancy all-weather vehicle.

 

[RU848789]

I don't believe this. I know you must have a fancy all-weather vehicle.

Yeah, I thought he drove this fine machine...

 

[RU848789]

On a serious note, we were planning on driving up from Monmouth County to New Brunswick Saturday evening and coming home at about midnight. This storm may put a dent in those plans.

If the NWS forecast holds, that would be a not-so-fun drive, unless you like driving through snow, like I do (my wife absolutely hates it). If we get a 4-6" snowfall in 7-8 hours, we'll see snow on every paved surface, as those snowfall rates would exceed melting rates, even for salted roads, especially at night with no melting from the sun.

 

[kcg88]

I have my interview for Global Entry at 8:30pm Saturday at Newark airport... Driving from South Brunswick, should I just look to reschedule?

 

[Knight Shift]

I don't believe this. I know you must have a fancy all-weather vehicle.

I pulled the trigger on a "new" 2016 Audi Q5 TDI that was released after it was fixed in accordance with the dieselgate settlement. The dealer gave me a decent trade amount on my 2014 Q5 TDI, and I got a good amount off the original sticker price. It's a good snow driving machine. It's not my driving I worry about--it's the other idiots. With less than 300 miles on the vehicle, not sure I want to risk going out.

 

[RU4Real]

I pulled the trigger on a "new" 2016 Audi Q5 TDI that was released after it was fixed in accordance with the dieselgate settlement. The dealer gave me a decent trade amount on my 2014 Q5 TDI, and I got a good amount off the original sticker price. It's a good snow driving machine. It's not my driving I worry about--it's the other idiots. With less than 300 miles on the vehicle, not sure I want to risk going out.

Well, I'm glad you're still "fam", even though I don't totally get the diesel thing. :)

 

[Knight Shift]

Well, I'm glad you're still "fam", even though I don't totally get the diesel thing. :)

I've related this before. Fell in love with oil burners as a teenager. I took my driving test on a 1978 VW Rabbit Diesel with a manual transmission, manual brakes and manual steering. That thing got 65 mpg on the Parkway and was going strong at 373,000 miles when my father turned it in.
When my 2014 TDI was in for the diesel fix they gave me a 2017 or 2018 Q5 gas loaner. I drove it up the Parkway to work in Woodbridge, and I almost put the accelerator pedal through the floor when I went to pass, while screaming at the thing to get moving. Can't beat the torque/acceleration of a diesel.
We all have our hangups.

 

[RocktheRac]

Yeah, I thought he drove this fine machine...

No that's me. Funny thing is I have never used the 4WD in the snow because I use my plow truck for transportation.

 

[ruready4somefootball]

It's funny, that on more than one occasion,the original forecast for a snow event 5 or 6 days out, becomes the actual amount we get. On Monday, I was seeing predictions of 4-8" on different weather sites for my Hazlet location,then by Tuesday it was downgraded to 1-3" until last night, when it was upgraded to 4-8" again. Of course I tell my wife about getting so much on Monday, and she says,"Are you reading that on your Rutgers site again,lol", only to get an I told you so, when predictions drop to 1-3" on Tuesday. Today, I get to tell her," My Rutgers guys were right again",lol.

 

[Knight Shift]

It's funny, that on more than one occasion,the original forecast for a snow event 5 or 6 days out, becomes the actual amount we get. On Monday, I was seeing predictions of 4-8" on different weather sites for my Hazlet location,then by Tuesday it was downgraded to 1-3" until last night, when it was upgraded to 4-8" again. Of course I tell my wife about getting so much on Monday, and she says,"Are you reading that on your Rutgers site again,lol", only to get an I told you so, when predictions drop to 1-3" on Tuesday. Today, I get to tell her," My Rutgers guys were right again",lol.

I blame @bac2therac and his summoning up the Scarlet Nation jinx in his tweaking of of @RU848789 . It's all good, as it is entertaining.

 

[Local Shill]

Perfect night to stay in and watch the RU-Maryland basketball game.

 

[RU#1fan]

I pulled the trigger on a "new" 2016 Audi Q5 TDI that was released after it was fixed in accordance with the dieselgate settlement. The dealer gave me a decent trade amount on my 2014 Q5 TDI, and I got a good amount off the original sticker price. It's a good snow driving machine. It's not my driving I worry about--it's the other idiots. With less than 300 miles on the vehicle, not sure I want to risk going out.

Amen to that. Watch the other Idiots.
Almost got side swiped by some idiot running a Red light last night on Route 18.

 

[bac2therac]

I blame @bac2therac and his summoning up the Scarlet Nation jinx in his tweaking of of @RU848789 . It's all good, as it is entertaining.

the storm hasnt happened yet...pretty surprise that the NWS went so bullish for a 6-8 hour overnight type event..even the weather guys on 33andrain think thats a big surprising. The 12z NAM just in was basically a 2-4 inch storm for the area possibly a little more for south jersey so that cut its outputs somewhat from some of the larger earlier snowmaps its was putting out. I would not be surprised to see further model adjustments

 

[Knight Shift]

the storm hasnt happened yet...pretty surprise that the NWS went so bullish for a 6-8 overnight type event..even the weather guys on 33andrain think thats a big surprising. The 12z NAM just in was basically a 2-4 inch storm for the area so that cut its outputs somewhat from some of the larger earlier snowmaps its was putting out. I would not be surprised to see further model adjustments

I'm with you. All of my weather apps and the Asbury Park Press are saying rain. I hope you are right. No wait, I hope that NUmbers is right!!!

 

[ClassOf02]

I have my interview for Global Entry at 8:30pm Saturday at Newark airport... Driving from South Brunswick, should I just look to reschedule?

Totally off topic, but global entry is the greatest thing ever. Came back from Rome recently into JFK to massive lines at customs. Just slid right by everyone to a kiosk and was done in 2 minutes.

 

[bac2therac]

12z runs so far snow outputs

NAM: 2-4 north and central, 4-6 south jersey

GFS 1-3 for most

RGEM: 1-3 for central jersey....3-6 north of 78, nothing for shore and south jersey

CMC: 1-3 for most

 

[RUPete]

Perfect night to stay in and watch the RU-Maryland basketball game.

You're funny. I have a feeling about this one...and Coach Pike is going to win a league title here before he is done.

 

[RUPete]

12z runs so far snow outputs

NAM: 2-4 north and central, 4-6 south jersey

GFS 1-3 for most

RGEM: 1-3 for central jersey....3-6 north of 78, nothing for shore and south jersey

CMC: 1-3 for most

Not a whopper but not a bad little hit for snow lovers given the current pattern. As a snow hater, since it's Saturday night into Sunday and I don't have to deal with storm traffic getting to work, it can do whatever it wants. Keep the snow lovers happy and make the plow guys some money.