OT: Winter Storm Sat Night/Sunday (2/17-18)?

[RU848789]

Enough model consensus on a winter storm to start a thread ~5 days out, as last night's models (0Z, 7 pm EST data initilization) all show some sort of winter storm starting late Saturday evening through early Sunday. At 0Z, Euro has a modest snowstorm (including its ensemble mean, which is important this far out, when uncertainty is high), CMC has a significant snowstorm and GFS has a modest snowstorm for inland and snow to rain for 95 and the coast and other models show some variation on those themes - and this morning's 6Z GFS shows a modest snowstorm.

This is a classic "thread the needle" event, where everything has to go perfectly for us to get a significant snowfall, especially from I-95 towards the coast, as there will be marginal cold air in place, as a storm approaches from the SW and potentially intensifies as it hits the coast off VA/DE. If the timing/track aren't just right, this storm could easily go out to sea, just brushing SE areas with some snow or the storm could go near or over us bringing some snow to start but then mostly rain for I-95/coast and a mixed bag inland (like the 2/8 event). But a 6"+ snowstorm for most is possible (if unlikely at this point), so worth watching.

As an aside, with this system we are nowhere near being in the midst of a good pattern for snow, like we were with the 1/4 event, for example, where it was very cold before the storm and the only real question was the track and how much snow we'd get. This time we'll have well above normal temps expected by mid-week (60F on Thursday?) into the weekend, then warmth again mid-next week (60F again?), but we do have a chance of a cold shot - just cold enough for snow - arriving on Saturday in time to meet up with that low pressure system approaching from the SW and then redeveloping along the DelMarVa and coming up the coast. Stay tuned. Link to 33andrain thread below if you want to follow the gory model by model details.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/796-long-range-pattern-discussion-winter’s-remains/?page=169

 

[RocktheRac]

Dan Zarrow was honking about an event late Sat/early Sun. Too early to make a call and said worth watching.

 

[NickRU714]

So high temps on Thurs/Fri of next week?

Taking off and hoping to be able to get some stuff done outside/in the garage.

 

[Knight Shift]

Enough model consensus on a winter storm to start a thread ~5 days out, as last night's models (0Z, 7 pm EST data initilization) all show some sort of winter storm starting late Saturday evening through early Sunday. At 0Z, Euro has a modest snowstorm (including its ensemble mean, which is important this far out, when uncertainty is high), CMC has a significant snowstorm and GFS has a modest snowstorm for inland and snow to rain for 95 and the coast and other models show some variation on those themes - and this morning's 6Z GFS shows a modest snowstorm.

This is a classic "thread the needle" event, where everything has to go perfectly for us to get a significant snowfall, especially from I-95 towards the coast, as there will be marginal cold air in place, as a storm approaches from the SW and potentially intensifies as it hits the coast off VA/DE. If the timing/track aren't just right, this storm could easily go out to sea, just brushing SE areas with some snow or the storm could go near or over us bringing some snow to start but then mostly rain for I-95/coast and a mixed bag inland (like the 2/8 event). But a 6"+ snowstorm for most is possible (if unlikely at this point), so worth watching.

As an aside, with this system we are nowhere near being in the midst of a good pattern for snow, like we were with the 1/4 event, for example, where it was very cold before the storm and the only real question was the track and how much snow we'd get. This time we'll have well above normal temps expected by mid-week (60F on Thursday?) into the weekend, then warmth again mid-next week (60F again?), but we do have a chance of a cold shot - just cold enough for snow - arriving on Saturday in time to meet up with that low pressure system approaching from the SW and then redeveloping along the DelMarVa and coming up the coast. Stay tuned. Link to 33andrain thread below if you want to follow the gory model by model details.

I liked that thread that sucked better.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

In my mind, winter is over. Isn't it supposed to be spring like next week?
rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/cold-pattern-after-2-4-nope-snow-mostly-rain-for-95-but-significant-snows-inland-on-2-7-yep.139037/

 

[RU4Real]

Not feelin' it. High temps on either side of the event, ground won't be frozen... It would take massive precip rates and a serious, albeit brief, cold plunge for this to work.

 

[RUScrew85]

I liked that thread that sucked better.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

In my mind, winter is over. Isn't it supposed to be spring like next week?
rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/cold-pattern-after-2-4-nope-snow-mostly-rain-for-95-but-significant-snows-inland-on-2-7-yep.139037/

Don't get your hopes up. March is a cruel bitch.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Pitchers and catchers today
No not the kind on Fire Island. Screw winter. Beisbol es aqui.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Don't get your hopes up. March is a cruel bitch.

Ain't that the truth?

March 14th, last year:

 

[bac2therac]

most storms this year have trended NW in time on modelling, why would this one be any different as we get closer which means more wet not white.

 

[RU848789]

I liked that thread that sucked better.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

In my mind, winter is over. Isn't it supposed to be spring like next week?
rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/cold-pattern-after-2-4-nope-snow-mostly-rain-for-95-but-significant-snows-inland-on-2-7-yep.139037/

That's just nuts - February is our snowiest month, historically, so no idea why you'd think winter is over. And while I think patterns can be predicted reasonably well from days 8-15 or so (not always, as we just saw, but much better than guessing) and am skeptical beyond that, I will say that many, many pros who do longer range forecasts (15-30 days), are expecting a cold pattern to start around Day 12 (2/26 or so) and last through at least early March.

I'm not saying that as a forecast (as I just said, I'm skeptical beyond 12 days and certainly beyond 15), but to note that's what I'm reading from multiple pros and multiple sites - and these aren't generally "snow loving weenies." I will keep track of how that plays out though, as I'm becoming more interested in seeing if these folks have much accuracy beyond 15 days. It's kind of hard to find accuracy stats on this timeframe.

 

[bac2therac]

they epic failed with this period...and even I can say it will probably get cold again after it warms up. I am not a big believer in trying to predict long range based on all those indicies they like to concern themselves with

 

[PSUTony]

regardless of the accuracy; winter storms are fun to watch evolve into massive snow or rain storms.....for the most part that is winter in NJ

 

[RU848789]

Today's 12Z model suite is highly favorable for a winter storm to affect the Philly-NJ-NYC area Sat evening/Sun morning. The details are still highly uncertain, but right now, every model shows at least some snow for the I-95 corridor and points NW of there, with some mixing of rain towards the coast. The Euro and CMC are significant snowfalls, while the GFS is some snow (a few inches) to rain for I-95 and the coast. Even the NAM at the end of its run (84 hours) shows snow for most.

Still a highly uncertain event outcome, but a few to several inches of snow are certainly a possibility - as is mostly rain for at least I-95 and the coast. A complete miss and a complete rainstorm are looking less likely, but still possible, since we're still 4.5 days away. I see little value in posting model maps, since they're going to change significantly, especially, perhaps, once all the systems are over land and sampled better (for better model accuracy) by about tomorrow night. Stay tuned.

One other point: this is likely to be a quick-hitter with most/all of the precip coming at night between maybe 6 pm Saturday and 4 am Sunday, so no solar issues to be concerned about, if that timing holds, plus a short storm with decent rates will easily accumulate on all surfaces, even if they were warmer during the day. After some initial melting on paved surfaces, once one gets the snowfall rate above the melting rate (probably only 1/4" per hour melting rate at night with 40F initial surface temps, but assuming ~32F air temps), which shouldn't be too hard, further accumulation is simple, as the snow is then falling on snow, which is at 32F, by definition, plus there's no melting rate associated with solar input at night (duh). Just need for it to not be rain, obviously.

 

[Bagarocks]

So to sum up this thread so far... It's prolly gonna snow, with some areas getting more and some gettin less.
I really do like these threads

 

[RU848789]

So to sum up this thread so far... It's prolly gonna snow, with some areas getting more and some gettin less.
I really do like these threads

Basically, yeah, which is generally true for any winter storm. But if you knew that why bother posting in the thread at all?

 

[Dpgru]

We are so screwed. Maybe!

 

[bac2therac]

no, its probably not going to snow..it might, but its just as likely could be rain as well

as modelled currently 4 days out..its a moderate snow event for most...yet when have the models stayed constant 4 days out. Thats the issue, in a thread the needle event, we would need them not to waffle. Its likely to be one of those things were its uncertain still 24-36 hours out

 

[Knight Shift]

no, its probably not going to snow..it might, but its just as likely could be rain as well

as modelled currently 4 days out..its a moderate snow event for most...yet when have the models stayed constant 4 days out. Thats the issue, in a thread the needle event, we would need them not to waffle. Its likely to be one of those things were its uncertain still 24-36 hours out

It's probably going to snow somewhere Saturday.

 

[DJ Spanky]

We are so screwed. Maybe!

Worse case scenario. Could be.

 

[RU848789]

NWS is thinking some snow for most of us, although 4+ days out is still a long ways to go, especially for a tricky situation like this one.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

However, the dry period is not expected to last long. As the
high pressure retreats to our northeast, an area of low pressure
will develop across the deep south, before moving offshore and
strengthening as it moves up the coast. The low itself will
remain just to our south, but there is plenty of moisture and
lift forecast to move across our area, north of the low. The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are all in pretty agreement with the
morning`s model runs. They all have the low passing just to our
south, then east, and wrapping precipitation across our area, as
early as the late afternoon, and continuing through the evening
and overnight hours. The question becomes what the P-Types will
be and how much snow will occur.

Based on thicknesses and
sounding, it looks like the precipitation would stay all snow
for our Pennsylvania counties, most of New Jersey, and northern
Delaware and Maryland. For southern portions of New Jersey and
central/southern Delaware and Maryland, there could be some
sleet and rain mixing in, possibly changing over to all rain for
a period during the overnight hours. Depending on where this
transition takes place, along with how warm we get during the
day Saturday will limit snow accumulations for some area. We do
not have an snowfall forecast map yet, that will come tonight,
but we do expect some accumulating snowfall for a good portion
of the area Saturday evening and Saturday night.

 

[kcg88]

It's probably going to snow somewhere Saturday.

Would you say it's time to panic?

 

[HeyHuey]

HE says that winter is over.

 

[bac2therac]

the 18z GFS was a total whiff...nothing, not even getting precip for most of us. Euro is a hit on the OP but in its ensembles there are quite a good number that are total whiffs as well.

 

[RU848789]

the 18z GFS was a total whiff...nothing, not even getting precip for most of us. Euro is a hit on the OP but in its ensembles there are quite a good number that are total whiffs as well.

Maybe wait for a whole suite to come in before cherry picking model runs. Yes, the GFS was a whiff, but it has a known SE bias and it missed us out to sea. Possible? Yes, but also maybe due to bias. Also, the NAM at 84 hours, which now includes up to 1 am Sunday, had a significant hit for the entire area. Let's see what the 00Z suite brings and it would be better to wait for the whole suite through the Euro to gauge any trends.

And to talk about the number of ensemble members that are whiffs reveals a complete lack of understanding of Fourier Transform-based Monte Carlo style simulations, like ensemble numerical weather model prediction runs. By definition, they perturb the initial conditions, on purpose, to gauge sensitivity to those initial conditions, since chaotic systems, like weather, can be very sensitive to inaccuracies in those initial conditions, meaning one expects to see whiffs and big hits as well as the mean being somewhere between those. There was not an abnormally high number of whiffs in the ensembles and the mean was quite a decent hit (not as big as the op, but that often happens).

 

[RUPete]

If something hits, the timing looks like it will be overnight and not during the day Saturday, correct?

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Ain't that the truth?

March 14th, last year:

That shoval would work a lot better if you turned it over..just sayin

 

[Bagarocks]

Basically, yeah, which is generally true for any winter storm. But if you knew that why bother posting in the thread at all?

I post because I can! Do I have to have the same knowledge as you to place a post here?
I like these weather threads. The only time I don't like them is when you and bac get in a pissin match. then they just get boring.

 

[RU848789]

If something hits, the timing looks like it will be overnight and not during the day Saturday, correct?

correct, although precip could start by 2-3 pm down by Philly and by 4-5 pm towards NB - but a couple of hours later in each location is more likely...

 

[bac2therac]

Maybe wait for a whole suite to come in before cherry picking model runs. Yes, the GFS was a whiff, but it has a known SE bias and it missed us out to sea. Possible? Yes, but also maybe due to bias. Also, the NAM at 84 hours, which now includes up to 1 am Sunday, had a significant hit for the entire area. Let's see what the 00Z suite brings and it would be better to wait for the whole suite through the Euro to gauge any trends.

And to talk about the number of ensemble members that are whiffs reveals a complete lack of understanding of Fourier Transform-based Monte Carlo style simulations, like ensemble numerical weather model prediction runs. By definition, they perturb the initial conditions, on purpose, to gauge sensitivity to those initial conditions, since chaotic systems, like weather, can be very sensitive to inaccuracies in those initial conditions, meaning one expects to see whiffs and big hits as well as the mean being somewhere between those. There was not an abnormally high number of whiffs in the ensembles and the mean was quite a decent hit (not as big as the op, but that often happens).

I am not cherry picking anything..this is a weather discussion thread for this event...just throwing some stuff out there...obviously you do not take your own advice because you love to post models showing snows...so I am just saying we are nowhere near any consensus of precip type or even if it does anything...because there are some runs showing whiffs, some showing rain and some showing snows. not sure what your beef is here

and the mean cut totals in half from the OP and more in SJ thats a big difference...so generally the ensembles were not exactly supporting the bullish OP

 

[RU848789]

I am not cherry picking anything..this is a weather discussion thread for this event...just throwing some stuff out there...obviously you do not take your own advice because you love to post models showing snows...so I am just saying we are nowhere near any consensus of precip type or even if it does anything...because there are some runs showing whiffs, some showing rain and some showing snows. not sure what your beef is here

The NAM comes out before the GFS showing good snows, yet you choose to only post the GFS showing a whiff. Looked like cherry picking to me.

And I rarely show any models at all, as I think it's counterproductive and often misleading, so you're wrong there, too. I almost always only show the NWS snowfall forecasts, not individual model runs, unless there's something noteworthy.

Go look at the most recent thread, where the 1/30 and 2/7 event were discussed. Guess how many model runs I posted? That would be zero. And in the thread about the 1/4 event, you showed about 10 model runs over a couple of days and I showed none until the night before, when I showed the whole suite of models, since I wanted to show the whole picture and not a potentially skewed viewpoint. I didn't check every weather thread, but I don't think I need to, since I do not "love to post models showing snows."

We completely agree that there isn't consensus on this system and being 4 days out with a very small margin for error to get snow, in this setup, that snow is far from a given.

 

[RU4Real]

*yawn*

 

[DJ Spanky]

Everybody prepare!

 

[DJ Spanky]

That shoval would work a lot better if you turned it over..just sayin

Damnit! I knew I was doing something wrong.

 

[Plum Street]

Bac and numbers , I must say I enjoy these threads for the information both provide. Do you guys know each other or ever met in real life? You sound like you’re too life long pals arguing .

 

[RocktheRac]

Bac and numbers , I must say I enjoy these threads for the information both provide. Do you guys know each other or ever met in real life? You sound like you’re too life long pals arguing .

I think same person.

 

[RU848789]

Bac and numbers , I must say I enjoy these threads for the information both provide. Do you guys know each other or ever met in real life? You sound like you’re too life long pals arguing .

Oh yeah, we've met numerous times, mostly at bowl games or hoops games at halftime, especially when we were decent in the Waters era. We get along great with regard to sports and most things Rutgers. Weather not as much and politics, well, no, but I'm pretty sure next time we see each other at a bowl game or something (it's been awhile, unfortunately), we'll toast to RU and have a few laughs.

 

[bac2therac]

The NAM comes out before the GFS showing good snows, yet you choose to only post the GFS showing a whiff. Looked like cherry picking to me.

And I rarely show any models at all, as I think it's counterproductive and often misleading, so you're wrong there, too. I almost always only show the NWS snowfall forecasts, not individual model runs, unless there's something noteworthy.

Go look at the most recent thread, where the 1/30 and 2/7 event were discussed. Guess how many model runs I posted? That would be zero. And in the thread about the 1/4 event, you showed about 10 model runs over a couple of days and I showed none until the night before, when I showed the whole suite of models, since I wanted to show the whole picture and not a potentially skewed viewpoint. I didn't check every weather thread, but I don't think I need to, since I do not "love to post models showing snows."

We completely agree that there isn't consensus on this system and being 4 days out with a very small margin for error to get snow, in this setup, that snow is far from a given.

the NAM 84 hours out..yeah seems worth posting

its a weather thread, now we are suddenly only allowed to post a certain way. Might be time to start a new thread

 

[bac2therac]

Oh yeah, we've met numerous times, mostly at bowl games or hoops games at halftime, especially when we were decent in the Waters era. We get along great with regard to sports and most things Rutgers. Weather not as much and politics, well, no, but I'm pretty sure next time we see each other at a bowl game or something (it's been awhile, unfortunately), we'll toast to RU and have a few laughs.

I'm not an instigator, I just get paid by the Russians to be a bot

I have been misleading you all for 20 years now

 

[RU848789]

the NAM 84 hours out..yeah seems worth posting

its a weather thread, now we are suddenly only allowed to post a certain way. Might be time to start a new thread

What does "allowed" have to do with it? Post whatever the hell you want and start as many threads as you like. But when you post in a biased fashion (GFS and not the earlier NAM) or post irrelevant (your ensembles comments) or inaccurate (saying I post snowy model runs or model runs in general) comments, I will highlight those things to set the record straight.

 

[bac2therac]

im just balancing things and I did say the Euro was hit, why are you getting your knickers in a knot