Enough model consensus on a winter storm to start a thread ~5 days out, as last night's models (0Z, 7 pm EST data initilization) all show some sort of winter storm starting late Saturday evening through early Sunday. At 0Z, Euro has a modest snowstorm (including its ensemble mean, which is important this far out, when uncertainty is high), CMC has a significant snowstorm and GFS has a modest snowstorm for inland and snow to rain for 95 and the coast and other models show some variation on those themes - and this morning's 6Z GFS shows a modest snowstorm.
This is a classic "thread the needle" event, where everything has to go perfectly for us to get a significant snowfall, especially from I-95 towards the coast, as there will be marginal cold air in place, as a storm approaches from the SW and potentially intensifies as it hits the coast off VA/DE. If the timing/track aren't just right, this storm could easily go out to sea, just brushing SE areas with some snow or the storm could go near or over us bringing some snow to start but then mostly rain for I-95/coast and a mixed bag inland (like the 2/8 event). But a 6"+ snowstorm for most is possible (if unlikely at this point), so worth watching.
As an aside, with this system we are nowhere near being in the midst of a good pattern for snow, like we were with the 1/4 event, for example, where it was very cold before the storm and the only real question was the track and how much snow we'd get. This time we'll have well above normal temps expected by mid-week (60F on Thursday?) into the weekend, then warmth again mid-next week (60F again?), but we do have a chance of a cold shot - just cold enough for snow - arriving on Saturday in time to meet up with that low pressure system approaching from the SW and then redeveloping along the DelMarVa and coming up the coast. Stay tuned. Link to 33andrain thread below if you want to follow the gory model by model details.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/796-long-range-pattern-discussion-winter’s-remains/?page=169
This is a classic "thread the needle" event, where everything has to go perfectly for us to get a significant snowfall, especially from I-95 towards the coast, as there will be marginal cold air in place, as a storm approaches from the SW and potentially intensifies as it hits the coast off VA/DE. If the timing/track aren't just right, this storm could easily go out to sea, just brushing SE areas with some snow or the storm could go near or over us bringing some snow to start but then mostly rain for I-95/coast and a mixed bag inland (like the 2/8 event). But a 6"+ snowstorm for most is possible (if unlikely at this point), so worth watching.
As an aside, with this system we are nowhere near being in the midst of a good pattern for snow, like we were with the 1/4 event, for example, where it was very cold before the storm and the only real question was the track and how much snow we'd get. This time we'll have well above normal temps expected by mid-week (60F on Thursday?) into the weekend, then warmth again mid-next week (60F again?), but we do have a chance of a cold shot - just cold enough for snow - arriving on Saturday in time to meet up with that low pressure system approaching from the SW and then redeveloping along the DelMarVa and coming up the coast. Stay tuned. Link to 33andrain thread below if you want to follow the gory model by model details.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/796-long-range-pattern-discussion-winter’s-remains/?page=169