Wow, this is really setting up like the January 1996 blizzard (at least for Eastern PA, northern NJ and NY/Hudson Valley). And if it takes a slight right/ENE turn off the DMV instead of heading due N, the mixing issues in south Jersey will dissipate as well.Updated...
The OFFICIAL March 13-14 Winter Weather Thread (This is the B1G 1)
- Thread starter Knight Shift
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Must be living in an alternate reality. #'s the SNOW LOVER is saying rain at the shore, while bac, the SNOW HATER is posting Blizzard warnings.
Okay, my stars are aligning.
I needed the storm to be bad enough that United would cancel my flight to Toronto tomorrow, thus assuring that I didn't have to go.
That flight has been cancelled.
So now I just need the storm to completely bust so that I don't have to do snow removal.
I needed the storm to be bad enough that United would cancel my flight to Toronto tomorrow, thus assuring that I didn't have to go.
That flight has been cancelled.
So now I just need the storm to completely bust so that I don't have to do snow removal.
What's the expert opinion on this area and Lawrence/Princeton? Low end 10inch high 18inch?
Bipolar reality....how about an indoor tailgate??? This is what happens when you have a snow day
The issue is that the heavy snowbands will be setting up just to the NW of the mix line, so that puts the entire northern half of NJ (from about Trenton to Perth Amboy and all points north) squarely in the crosshairs for 18-30 inches. The updated snow map on NWS/Mt. Holly has that area in 18-24 inches, plus there is a pocket of 24-30 from northern Somerset County through southern Morris and all of Warren County and into the Poconos.
I posted the blizzard warnings first, so not sure I can give you that, lol. Being an RU fan, I'm conditioned a bit to be a pessimist and ready for Lucy to pull the ball away - I'm excited about the storm but worried about a March-93 scenario, which was an awesome storm, but we "only" got 12" of snow and 3" of sleet (which is equivalent to about 12" of snow), instead of the 24" of snow we could've had. Same impact on shoveling and snow removal in terms of mass, but much less pretty and the aesthetics actually mean something to me.
Just found it odd that the poster who accuses you of wishcasting did not give you props for posting a rain scenario while he posted a blizzard scenario. Thanks for all of the updates. Just hope the high tides and flooding are moderate in Sea Bright.
there is a mini weenie panic on americanwx with the warmish NAM and RGEM which are two models in their deadly range right now. On the RGEM, The idea of warm air intrusion and sleet possibly all the way up to 78 is getting some worried. Here is that map, you can see what a huge difference in totals from just 20 miles
no...if it was 60 or 70 for a few days it could have prevented early accumulations but the rates will be so heavy that even then it wouldnt matter as the storm progresses
Sitting square under a 23" on this one in northern bergenthere is a mini weenie panic on americanwx with the warmish NAM and RGEM which are two models in their deadly range right now. On the RGEM, The idea of warm air intrusion and sleet possibly all the way up to 78 is getting some worried. Here is that map, you can see what a huge difference in totals from just 20 miles
Yeah. And for those who were pondering the meaning of "I95 Corridor" and why it seems to be some sort of landmark for winter storm forecasting, all that is clearly evident on this latest map.
Looks like Bergen and Passaic are screwed regardless. Good luck to you central and south jersey folks on the bust out.
Maybe a few inches to start, but will be mostly rain. Not unusual in nor'easters...
None. Will be in the upper 20s before the precip starts and will stay below 32F for most of the I-95 corridor for most of the storm. Will also start overnight, so no March sun to affect the first half of the storm. Even the sleet is because it'll be above 32F a few thousand feet up and still below 32F at the surface. Of course, where it's warm enough for rain, it'll be above 32F.
I do think that is why the last storm failed along towns north of the Delaware River as we had days in the 60s before the quick change. As water takes longer to heat/cool it was the reason why PA river towns had big differences in nearby places. Having lived in Lavallette I know the impact of water on the weather
also last storm was not anywhere near dynamic and prolonged, the rates only briefly were heavy as opposed to what this will be
Still the towns north of the river on that day had amounts less than towns south of the river.
Two days in Lavallette come to mind. I was a senior at Pt. Beach and it was raining in the morning but school was cancelled. Next day drive to school and there was a lot of snow in the ground just 10 miles from home. The other was the blizzard the night of the Giants win against Buffalo. The blizzard was confined to the barrier beaches. 10 miles in nothing.
What am I looking at in Newark gents?? First seemed like we'd be right in the worst of it, now the line seems to be tracking closer to me.
What schedule, there seems to be an initial very light band up through Delmarva, and touches south jersey.
I'm thinking that the map I posted above is what verifies. Looking at that map, the Raritan Bay area looks to be in the 10-12" range.
With the higher snow totals moving north on the latest maps, I'm starting to expect something of a bust here in New Brunswick.
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