The OFFICIAL March 13-14 Winter Weather Thread (This is the B1G 1)
- Thread starter Knight Shift
- Start date
From Mt Holly...they seem to be taking into account the RGEM and NAM warmer solutions..remember those are hi resolution models that pick up things better. So they point out the sleet potential from 5-10AM from Philly to New Brunswick along the the supposed I95 line
Nasty no`easter will hammer our region Tuesday morning.
Everyone northwest of I-95 (e PA and nw NJ especially RDG to
Lehigh valley to Somerville north) should be thinking about
sheltering in place from around 2 AM to 2 PM...in other words no
unnecessary travel. Follow the advice of local officials. If
you must travel, it is recommended that you have a safety packet
with you, including warm clothing, bottled water and a fully
charged cell phone.
This high impact relatively short duration nor`easter threatens
to shut down many roads for a time Tuesday morning, northwest
of I-95 due to snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour along
with blowing and drifting of a relatively dry snow.
I-95: GFS colder thermal profiles vs the NAM/RGEM thermal
profiles. We opt for the warmer mesoscale models which continue
to indicate that sleet will be the primary precipitation type
for several hours between 5 am and 10 am (one half to 1 inch
amounts of sleet possible) along and southeast of I-95, playing
havoc with snow amount forecasting. This includes the Wilmington
to Philadelphia to New Brunswick stretch eastward. if there is
no change to sleet... snowfall easily exceeds 15 inches. For now
we go with the lower snowfall sleet mix.
For the coast vicinity of Atlantic City southward through
southeastern New Jersey and coastal Delaware...a bit of snow to
start, enough to make it slippery, then over to heavy rain with
poor drainage street flooding near daybreak as well as coastal
flooding and scattered damaging wind gusts to 55 or 60 mph, then
sleet mixes in toward forenoon and ends as snow midday or early
afternoon. Challenging to say the least.
Power outages are likely, particularly closer to the NJ coast,
due to the combination of high winds and heavy snow.
Warnings have not changed since the 330 am issuance and expect
no changes til our 330 PM update.
Nasty no`easter will hammer our region Tuesday morning.
Everyone northwest of I-95 (e PA and nw NJ especially RDG to
Lehigh valley to Somerville north) should be thinking about
sheltering in place from around 2 AM to 2 PM...in other words no
unnecessary travel. Follow the advice of local officials. If
you must travel, it is recommended that you have a safety packet
with you, including warm clothing, bottled water and a fully
charged cell phone.
This high impact relatively short duration nor`easter threatens
to shut down many roads for a time Tuesday morning, northwest
of I-95 due to snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour along
with blowing and drifting of a relatively dry snow.
I-95: GFS colder thermal profiles vs the NAM/RGEM thermal
profiles. We opt for the warmer mesoscale models which continue
to indicate that sleet will be the primary precipitation type
for several hours between 5 am and 10 am (one half to 1 inch
amounts of sleet possible) along and southeast of I-95, playing
havoc with snow amount forecasting. This includes the Wilmington
to Philadelphia to New Brunswick stretch eastward. if there is
no change to sleet... snowfall easily exceeds 15 inches. For now
we go with the lower snowfall sleet mix.
For the coast vicinity of Atlantic City southward through
southeastern New Jersey and coastal Delaware...a bit of snow to
start, enough to make it slippery, then over to heavy rain with
poor drainage street flooding near daybreak as well as coastal
flooding and scattered damaging wind gusts to 55 or 60 mph, then
sleet mixes in toward forenoon and ends as snow midday or early
afternoon. Challenging to say the least.
Power outages are likely, particularly closer to the NJ coast,
due to the combination of high winds and heavy snow.
Warnings have not changed since the 330 am issuance and expect
no changes til our 330 PM update.
Bac, thanks for answering my similar question. I am trying to get my wife to come down by about 6 p.m. just to be on the safe side, but I won't be concerned if she can't get here until a couple of hours after that.
BTW, I was at the Voorhees Acme in South Jersey; the shelves were well-stocked. There were many more people than usual there, and the store had virtually every register manned (or "personed" if you prefer)
NAM and GFS are different models the meteorologists use to predict storms. Believe the numbers preceding the model are the resolution/density of the model.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.php
The Z as explained before probably stands for "Zulu" time which is time at the prime meridian (Greenwich England) standard time (No daylight savings). Military and aviation use this to avoid confusion over time zones. When I was flying that is how all flight plans and communication were communicated. also known as UTC - Universal Time Coordinated.
it could be the difference of as many as 4-6 inches...however sleet would just coat the snow making removal even more difficult...sleet in inches does not move with a shovel like snow does.
This. I would much prefer all snow and no rain/sleet to make removal easier. Should also cut down on the amount of slush/ice the plows will pile up at the end of the driveway.
Euro seems to be cold enough for snow so a better run than the 0z run from last night, only one map available I saw but that one usually runs snow totals higher than the other maps. I think they make you pay for euro snowfall maps. Would seem to be inline for 12-18
I would think mets are going to be fairly confident with their forecasts of 12-18 while throwing out the caveats for the areas to could see a mixed bag for a while. Thats going to be the hard part.
I would think mets are going to be fairly confident with their forecasts of 12-18 while throwing out the caveats for the areas to could see a mixed bag for a while. Thats going to be the hard part.
depends on how much we get...if its 12 inches and it ends at 2 PM, thats alot of time to get things in shape...if we start getting 16, 18, 20 inches or more than forget about it. You will not be going anywhere on Wednesday.
Jeepers, that would be hurricane-force winds in the coastal areas. Is there a prediction for storm surges as a result of (1) the size of the storm itself; and (2) the onshore winds?Euro winds wow
Turning into quite the close call for I-95 corridor (NJTPK in NJ), with enough precip for 12-24", especially north of Trenton, but with about half of the main models now showing some sleet mixing in for a few to several hours, which would keep accumulations down somewhat - although the impact would be the same, as it's the mass of frozen precip that matters for snow removal/traction etc. For areas towards the coast, especially for coastal Monmouth and even interior Ocean, there's now a decent possibility of this storm being 1/3 snow, 1/3 sleet and 1/3 rain with maybe 4-8" of slop that the rain falls into (and won't melt) - and it's possible that areas south of Toms River see mostly rain after a few inches of snow/sleet. The other thing snow lovers don't want to see is any further shift in the actual track (as said below, it's almost beyond the time where the global models are useful and we watch surface, upper level and radar trends of the actual storm forming and evolving).
The problem is that nobody on the planet can predict the exact placement of a gradient that will likely go from 24" snow to 12" snow/4" sleet to 8" snow/3" sleet/1"rain to 4" snow/2" sleet/1.5" rain to 2+" rain over maybe 50 miles. It's simply impossible. What you hope is that that gradient is offshore so nobody has to make that call and you only worry about where the deformation bands set up to give more or less snow. Doesn't look like that will be the case, though. Will be interesting to see what the NWS and media forecasters say now - don't envy them on this one. Here's something one of my favorite mets (Wxoutlooksblog) said just a few minutes ago:
"For the NYC Metro Region with all the models out, some showing western Long Island and NYC itself to get the most snow, and others including the European model showing an extremely close call with sleet/rain mixing over western Long Island and possibly the city, probably the only thing left to do is to watch this storm develop and move hour by hour and see how far north and west the rain/snow/sleet mix and changeover lines get. It is such a close call on the European model, for example, that some of the computer generated snowfall forecast maps off of this very same model differ by 6" or so for this region with NYC/northwestern Long Island on the edge of a swatch of 12-18" snowfall to the southeast and 18-24" snowfall to the northwest. So, we will have to watch radar and surface observations to the south to see if and when certain portions of the NYC Metro Region mix with or change to rain and/or sleet tomorrow morning. This is called nowcasting and I hereby declare this historic March blizzard is now officially in nowcasting mode."
Edit: interestingly, the NWS didn't officially decrease the snowfall amount for Middlesex County (or Somerset and NW of Middlesex), as the updated blizzard warnings show, which just came out, so after all the model input.was considered - still at 18-24", but notes amounts could decrease due to sleet. We'll have to just watch and see now.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=blizzard warning
The problem is that nobody on the planet can predict the exact placement of a gradient that will likely go from 24" snow to 12" snow/4" sleet to 8" snow/3" sleet/1"rain to 4" snow/2" sleet/1.5" rain to 2+" rain over maybe 50 miles. It's simply impossible. What you hope is that that gradient is offshore so nobody has to make that call and you only worry about where the deformation bands set up to give more or less snow. Doesn't look like that will be the case, though. Will be interesting to see what the NWS and media forecasters say now - don't envy them on this one. Here's something one of my favorite mets (Wxoutlooksblog) said just a few minutes ago:
"For the NYC Metro Region with all the models out, some showing western Long Island and NYC itself to get the most snow, and others including the European model showing an extremely close call with sleet/rain mixing over western Long Island and possibly the city, probably the only thing left to do is to watch this storm develop and move hour by hour and see how far north and west the rain/snow/sleet mix and changeover lines get. It is such a close call on the European model, for example, that some of the computer generated snowfall forecast maps off of this very same model differ by 6" or so for this region with NYC/northwestern Long Island on the edge of a swatch of 12-18" snowfall to the southeast and 18-24" snowfall to the northwest. So, we will have to watch radar and surface observations to the south to see if and when certain portions of the NYC Metro Region mix with or change to rain and/or sleet tomorrow morning. This is called nowcasting and I hereby declare this historic March blizzard is now officially in nowcasting mode."
Edit: interestingly, the NWS didn't officially decrease the snowfall amount for Middlesex County (or Somerset and NW of Middlesex), as the updated blizzard warnings show, which just came out, so after all the model input.was considered - still at 18-24", but notes amounts could decrease due to sleet. We'll have to just watch and see now.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=blizzard warning
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Don't look now, but Mt. Holly just added Blizzard Warnings to all of northern NJ and eastern PA, probably because the latest model runs have winds of 50+ MPH much further inland. They still haven't updated their snow maps though.
some of the short term models tonight like the NAM, RGEM and Hrrr plus SREF plumes will be useful to see any last minutes but I agree that radar trends and nowcasting based on observations is taking hold soon. Mt Holly is very much considering the mesoscale models over the globals
I don't usually associate a blizzard with the "get all the furniture off the balcony because of those winds" kind of storms. Will everything be covered with at least a few inches of heavy snow before the wind hits its worst, or should we get all the furniture off the balcony just in case?
If around the I95 corridor the fact that it may sleet doesn't change the impact of the storm I don't know what business offices are waiting for...sounds like they should close north of Burlington county no matter what...
BLIZZARD WARNING
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017
...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as
a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on
Tuesday...
.A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those
who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will
become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday
Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and
west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are
likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of
northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per
hour are expected.
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-140615-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.
* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New
Jersey.
* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.
* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches.
* TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest
to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times
with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for
several hours Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish late in the
day Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and
may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the
snow on tree limbs and power lines. Strong winds will lead to
blowing snow, reduced visibility, and additional power
outages.
* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* VISIBILITIES...Less than one-quarter mile for several hours.
* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 20s.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017
...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as
a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on
Tuesday...
.A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those
who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will
become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday
Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and
west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are
likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of
northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per
hour are expected.
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-140615-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.
* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New
Jersey.
* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.
* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches.
* TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest
to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times
with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for
several hours Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish late in the
day Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and
may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the
snow on tree limbs and power lines. Strong winds will lead to
blowing snow, reduced visibility, and additional power
outages.
* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* VISIBILITIES...Less than one-quarter mile for several hours.
* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 20s.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.
not quite...still lots of snow but alot of mixing and slop...very hard to pinpoint..it would limit accumes to around a foot or so in my area Southern Somerset County...those north of 78 still do extremely well but those further south could see some slicing of totals verbatim
going to be tough call to see how much warm air intrudes and how far it reaches but lets just say its looking the like the sweet spots are probably northern nj
Updated...
pretty bullish for those central areas of the state given that NAM run that just came out but you see the difference in New Brunswick vs Trenton...thats a 7 inch difference and if the warm air pushes further north that would slice New Brunswick totals.
Really going to have nowcast overnight
When I was a kid my dad would say go get a sled or a disc find a hill have fun and dont kill yourself..In Highland Park that was not hard to do.
Hate to be that person who asks specifics, but any idea when this really ramps up in the Edison - New Brunswick area? Wife works at a hospital and of course they don't shut down for weather. So trying to pinpoint when to leave to get her there for work tomorrow. Obviously, I know the earlier the better. Just wondering what kind of accumulations we might be looking at by say 4 in the morning or so, roughly speaking. Any advice appreciated!
there will be a few inches by 4AM...from 3AM-11AM this thing will really be cranking. I would advise that all travel should stop after midnight or 1AM
but best advice is to monitor the radar because it could start later or the snows could be lighter that you can get out there and drive...but you do not want to caught out in 1-3 inch an hour snow rates
but best advice is to monitor the radar because it could start later or the snows could be lighter that you can get out there and drive...but you do not want to caught out in 1-3 inch an hour snow rates
Thanks man! I figured earlier the better, but wives have other ideas sometimes. Since I'm driving her, I want to get her there to the hospital and get my butt home! Thanks again.
So you know what that means, don't you? No matter what you say or quote, someone on here is going to give you major grief about it.
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