The OFFICIAL March 13-14 Winter Weather Thread (This is the B1G 1)
- Thread starter Knight Shift
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IIRC, the naming of winter storms began in an effort to coalesce or standardize the referencing of these storms. "The Blizzard of 1996" means different things to people in different regions of the country, because a blizzard in one area is not a blizzard in another, even though both blizzards occurred in the same year. Now, each storm gets a name. Practical, but still silly.
Reading all the weenies on suicide watch on americanwx was enjoyable this morning....lets see if we can get Stella more west with todays runs which could create major uncertainty. The 6z GFS was cold and snowy but the 6z Nam was dicey for all snow
rurichdog - what part of Hamilton are you in? I'm over by the Sawmill YMCA and they still haven't plowed my street since the last storm....
I once e-mailed a prominent met in Mount Holly and asked the same question. He said I was trying to make too fine a distinction. The two are close enough that it doesn't make a difference.
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The 5 a.m. NWS briefing says the storm will start late this evening. Do you guys think it is likely to start before midnight? I know predicting timing is very iffy.
models have the storm reaching the NJ anywhere between 10PM and 2AM depending on which model, of course some things that do not happen like the models say,. You should be safe anytime before 8PM in your area but check the board here for radar trends.
models differing...depending where you are some have the storm winding things down as early as 3 while some linger snows until 9PM
there will be a major storm with major impacts that is pretty much certain
there is a bust potential on snowfall totals because a shift of 50 miles west can really introduce mixing, sleet and plain rain to cut totals....still there is not enough evidence to suggest a shift that way although the Euro last night was a getting to a close call for some. Will have to see the afternoon Euro run.
On the 12NAM just out you can see there is going to be some mixing issues for some but just to the north of that you are going to get some really heavy rates so how far north the mixing or sleet gets is huge. NAM snow maps still give most of NJ 12 plus inches if you are north of say Cherry Hill but south jersey and toward the coast you see the amounts eaten up a bit
this map is at 10 AM...and is the furthest north the rain line makes it. NAM would have the timeline from 11PM entering southern NJ to maybe 2PM or so but of course later the northern parts of NJ
but back to the bust point...whenever a broad forecast is put out for large amounts like 18-24 there is always a bust potential, slight shifts, where the heavy banding sets up, dry slots really effect things...so you could see 14 or 16...still a big storm. If we are seeing a significant amount of sleet in central jersey then thats when the word Bust is going to be put up. I have seen storms in the past call for 4-6 inches of snow and we got 2 inches of sleet
still I think the mets are pretty confident in their forecast of 12-18 for parts of NJ and 18-24 in the sweet spots
still I think the mets are pretty confident in their forecast of 12-18 for parts of NJ and 18-24 in the sweet spots
there was some weenie on Americanwx last night crying how if he only got a foot of snow it would be a total total letdown. These kids today with their inflated superstorms do not realize how little big storms us old folks had. As a kid I remember 78..then my fave of all time Feb 83..then Jan 96. These were rare events...and it was rare to have 8-12 storms too. Now everything is about supersized mega events 16-30 inches...who actually wants stuff like that, it could literally kill people, the girl who cuts my hairs father had a heart attack and died 5 years back after shoveling during a storm.
Bac,you're all time big favorite storm cost me some decent money.
I was betting a horse called Bliss JG at the Meadowlands.I bet him 2 times out,then the storm canceled the card on Feb.11,1983.When he was next entered on Feb.18,I passed because I didn't like the week off,figuring he may lose something.
Nope.He won at 113-1.I still have the program.
I was betting a horse called Bliss JG at the Meadowlands.I bet him 2 times out,then the storm canceled the card on Feb.11,1983.When he was next entered on Feb.18,I passed because I didn't like the week off,figuring he may lose something.
Nope.He won at 113-1.I still have the program.
Anyone want to come shovel out my car in JC? Took my almost all day after last year's storm; there's no place to put the damn snow.
I'm too old for this shit.
I'm too old for this shit.
What's interesting is the more the storm rides the the coast and brings the rain/snow line more into NJ inthe south and up th cost, the more totals for those of us in NNJ go up.
Like many of these storms for NJ, the heaviest precipitation outside of the Meso Bands walks that's boundary line. So if your close to it but stay all snow those totals shoot up. Southern Somerset could see 10 inches, while northern Morris county gets 2 feet
Like many of these storms for NJ, the heaviest precipitation outside of the Meso Bands walks that's boundary line. So if your close to it but stay all snow those totals shoot up. Southern Somerset could see 10 inches, while northern Morris county gets 2 feet
The race he won was for 3 year olds,non-winners of 20K or 4 races lifetime.This was his 4th race of his career.
its going to be pretty cold for the next week if a snow/rain chance...I think any warmup pushed back until the end of March if that...funny because most were saying we were headed for uber torch from the 3rd week of March and beyond
Guess all the sweet cold gear I ordered for my staff will be useful this year after all.
Drive and park in JC!??! I hate going there on a normal day to try and find parking cause it just sucks. Going there when it snows... F THAT!!!
haha...my mind is a database of old horses...do you remember any of these.....Green With Envy, All Da Time, Searights, Instrument Landing, Prince Ebony, Ramblin Storm, Escortention, Symbols Yanketron, Albus, Genghis Khan, Ideal Tanner, Toughkenamon
Dunno about you but... I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it smells like...
Victory
the NAM verbatim has the heaviest of snows that could be 2 inches an hour or more in some parts of Northern NJ between 8-11AM
it hasnt been announced yet? I remember for the mega 2-3 ft storm that didnt happen, they had one even as we were seeing a few inches
Bac - I remember that '83 storm very well. I was an RU student and it was the first time in Rutgers long history the school was ever formally closed due to weather. At least that's what the school said at the time - I assume it was true. It was also my first time traying, which was a blast!
RGEM model is a little west and warmer...seems to have a lengthy period of sleet in there with change to rain in some locales....cutting totals for those south of central jersey and the coast. Close call but many still see a foot with more in the sweet spots but this might be a warning sign for some of us for the heavy totals
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