Timing of things in philadelphia area?
you will be snowing by midnight most likely
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Timing of things in philadelphia area?
Sorry... just so I am more knowledgeable, what does "12km NAM," "3km NAM," "12z GFS," & "18z GFS" mean? Like what do the numbers and letters mean?
TWC has 80 mph gusts. Is that real?
Essex will be sparedI think those counties will get the most snow, but I see NE Middlesex and Hudson getting the strongest winds.
you will be snowing by midnight most likely
Where? Is it being chased?Euro running now:popcorn:
Euro running now:popcorn:
Googled images for European Model running, and this is what I got:Where? Is it being chased?
NAM and GFS are different models the meteorologists use to predict storms. Believe the numbers preceding the model are the resolution/density of the model.Sorry... just so I am more knowledgeable, what does "12km NAM," "3km NAM," "12z GFS," & "18z GFS" mean? Like what do the numbers and letters mean?
So I am in the Evesham/Cherry Hill/Medford area. What can I expect?
Snow tonight with the possibility of a period of sleet in the morning?
If the sleet option holds, instead 15 or so inches, what does the area eat of I95 get in accumulation totals?
This. I would much prefer all snow and no rain/sleet to make removal easier. Should also cut down on the amount of slush/ice the plows will pile up at the end of the driveway.it could be the difference of as many as 4-6 inches...however sleet would just coat the snow making removal even more difficult...sleet in inches does not move with a shovel like snow does.
What do you think the roads will be like on Wednesday morning?
Euro seems to be cold enough for snow so a better run than the 0z run from last night, only one map available I saw but that one usually runs snow totals higher than the other maps. I think they make you pay for euro snowfall maps. Would seem to be inline for 12-18
I would think mets are going to be fairly confident with their forecasts of 12-18 while throwing out the caveats for the areas to could see a mixed bag for a while. Thats going to be the hard part.
Jeepers, that would be hurricane-force winds in the coastal areas. Is there a prediction for storm surges as a result of (1) the size of the storm itself; and (2) the onshore winds?Euro winds wow
I don't usually associate a blizzard with the "get all the furniture off the balcony because of those winds" kind of storms. Will everything be covered with at least a few inches of heavy snow before the wind hits its worst, or should we get all the furniture off the balcony just in case?
Turning into quite the close call for I-95 corridor (NJTPK in NJ), with enough precip for 12-24", especially north of Trenton, but with about half of the main models now showing some sleet mixing in for a few to several hours, which would keep accumulations down somewhat - although the impact would be the same, as it's the mass of frozen precip that matters for snow removal/traction etc. For areas towards the coast, especially for coastal Monmouth and even interior Ocean, there's now a decent possibility of this storm being 1/3 snow, 1/3 sleet and 1/3 rain with maybe 4-8" of slop that the rain falls into (and won't melt) - and it's possible that areas south of Toms River see mostly rain after a few inches of snow/sleet. The other thing snow lovers don't want to see is any further shift in the actual track (as said below, it's almost beyond the time where the global models are useful and we watch surface, upper level and radar trends of the actual storm forming and evolving).
The problem is that nobody on the planet can predict the exact placement of a gradient that will likely go from 24" snow to 12" snow/4" sleet to 8" snow/3" sleet/1"rain to 4" snow/2" sleet/1.5" rain to 2+" rain over maybe 50 miles. It's simply impossible. What you hope is that that gradient is offshore so nobody has to make that call and you only worry about where the deformation bands set up to give more or less snow. Doesn't look like that will be the case, though. Will be interesting to see what the NWS and media forecasters say now - don't envy them on this one. Here's something one of my favorite mets (Wxoutlooksblog) said just a few minutes ago:
"For the NYC Metro Region with all the models out, some showing western Long Island and NYC itself to get the most snow, and others including the European model showing an extremely close call with sleet/rain mixing over western Long Island and possibly the city, probably the only thing left to do is to watch this storm develop and move hour by hour and see how far north and west the rain/snow/sleet mix and changeover lines get. It is such a close call on the European model, for example, that some of the computer generated snowfall forecast maps off of this very same model differ by 6" or so for this region with NYC/northwestern Long Island on the edge of a swatch of 12-18" snowfall to the southeast and 18-24" snowfall to the northwest. So, we will have to watch radar and surface observations to the south to see if and when certain portions of the NYC Metro Region mix with or change to rain and/or sleet tomorrow morning. This is called nowcasting and I hereby declare this historic March blizzard is now officially in nowcasting mode."
Will my snowblower blow away when I am using it at 7-8 am?Don't look now, but Mt. Holly just added Blizzard Warnings to all of northern NJ and eastern PA, probably because the latest model runs have winds of 50+ MPH much further inland. They still haven't updated their snow maps though.
Did I just read a recent NAM run that shows nothing but rain south of Trenton in the Philly/SJ area?
Updated...
there will be a few inches by 4AM...from 3AM-11AM this thing will really be cranking. I would advise that all travel should stop after midnight or 1AM
but best advice is to monitor the radar because it could start later or the snows could be lighter that you can get out there and drive...but you do not want to caught out in 1-3 inch an hour snow rates
So you know what that means, don't you? No matter what you say or quote, someone on here is going to give you major grief about it.The problem is that nobody on the planet can predict the exact placement of a gradient that will likely go from 24" snow to 12" snow/4" sleet to 8" snow/3" sleet/1"rain to 4" snow/2" sleet/1.5" rain to 2+" rain over maybe 50 miles. It's simply impossible.