ADVERTISEMENT

Tropical Storm Danny: worth watching this one as it approaches the Caribbean

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
63,746
42,705
113
Metuchen, NJ
TS Danny was named earlier today and as it heads mostly westward over the next several days, it's expected to become a hurricane and possibly threaten the eastern Caribbean (the Leeward Islands first) by early next week. Still way too far out in the Atlantic for those areas to start panicking about, but a little preparation can never hurt. This is the 4th storm of the season, which has been predicted to be a weak one; however the number of storms (4) is close to normal, so far, but the strength for each of the first 3 was pretty pathetic (I completely missed Claudette, lol). Stay tuned.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3075

203240W5_NL_sm.gif
 
Might be the first time the people of Puerto Rico are praying for a hurricane. They are suffering through a severe drought. My wife's family's water is turned off all but two days per week. It's hard to fathom how a tropical island could experience a drought.
 
Long range -this one may be potentially bad as it appears to be headed to the gulf and then strengthen big time. Cape Verde hurricanes can be the worst as they have a lot of time to develop.
 
Taking aim at the northern Leeward Islands and then Puerto Rico. Lots of model agreement on the path, but lots of disagreement on the intensity, which is typical (far harder to predict intensity). Forecast now is for a cat 1/2 hurricane in a few days, but then weakening back to a TS or minimal cat 1 hurricane by any potential landfall. Hard to know where Danny wil go from there - fall part, curve to the NE and become a fish storm (most common path), or keep plodding WNW...
 
Once again the forecasters have been dead wrong on this one so far. The last couple of days they portrayed this as a storm that would become a Cat 1 hurricane, then degrade back to a Tropical Storm as it got near Puerto Rico. I thought this had the potential with its path to become a Cat 3. Well, now it's jumped to a strong Cat 2, I think it will become even stronger tomorrow during daylight hours before it starts running into land masses. Here's the latest image:

vis0-lalo.gif
 
Once again the forecasters have been dead wrong on this one so far. The last couple of days they portrayed this as a storm that would become a Cat 1 hurricane, then degrade back to a Tropical Storm as it got near Puerto Rico. I thought this had the potential with its path to become a Cat 3. Well, now it's jumped to a strong Cat 2, I think it will become even stronger tomorrow during daylight hours before it starts running into land masses. Here's the latest image:

Huh? Have you even read the forecasts? As I said a couple of days ago, it was predicted to become a Cat 1/2 hurricane, which is exactly what has happened. It's now predicted to weaken soon, as it encounters significant SW shear and dry air entrainment, and is likely to only be a tropical storm as it hits the Leeward Islands in ~72 hours and Puerto Rico in ~96 hours. That's very close to what was predicted 2 days ago, as per my post above. While this could still be wrong, as intensity forecasts are exceedingly difficult to get correct, it hasn't been "dead wrong" or even close to wrong so far.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/211438.shtml?
 
Huh? Have you even read the forecasts? As I said a couple of days ago, it was predicted to become a Cat 1/2 hurricane, which is exactly what has happened. It's now predicted to weaken soon, as it encounters significant SW shear and dry air entrainment, and is likely to only be a tropical storm as it hits the Leeward Islands in ~72 hours and Puerto Rico in ~96 hours. That's very close to what was predicted 2 days ago, as per my post above. While this could still be wrong, as intensity forecasts are exceedingly difficult to get correct, it hasn't been "dead wrong" or even close to wrong so far.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/211438.shtml?

As predicted by the TPC, Danny ran into a buzzsaw of shear, shredding the hurricane, which quickly weakened to a tropical storm over the past 2 days. Might not even be a tropical storm when it grazes PR and hits Hispaniola - hopefully, it can still produce the rains these areas need.
 
As predicted by the TPC, Danny ran into a buzzsaw of shear, shredding the hurricane, which quickly weakened to a tropical storm over the past 2 days. Might not even be a tropical storm when it grazes PR and hits Hispaniola - hopefully, it can still produce the rains these areas need.


Thats what they want you to believe!
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT