OT: Hurricane Ida taking aim at Louisiana and more as a likely major hurricane Sunday (8/29)

rubaseball78

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How do those projections compare to other major hurricanes? They sound big but I don't know how big.
Updated numbers from this mornings report.

16500 roofs need repair
8000 roofs need replacement
2000 total loss

These are just for residential (shingles). Does not include commercial buildings. While bad, not as bad as our models originally predicted.
 
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RU848789

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Levees should hold, based on what I've read - had a good test with last year's storms, although these weren't Ida. Biggest issue might be whether the pumps can keep up with the rainfall that falls inside the levees in NO, as that needs to be pumped out and the pumps can only keep up with some of that, so some flooding will be likely in lower spots (being below sea level, pumping is the only way to "empty the bowl").
Fortunately, the levees held overnight for New Orleans and according to TV reports, the pumps had backup generators (given total loss of power to NO last night) that worked to limit flooding from rainfall inside the "bowl" in New Orleans. However some older levees outside of New Orleans were breached and hundreds or maybe thousands experienced major flooding with some still trapped in their houses. I'm sure we'll find out more today about those folks.

https://www.reuters.com/.../hurricane-ida-plunges-new.../
 

Plum Street

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Fortunately, the levees held overnight for New Orleans and according to TV reports, the pumps had backup generators (given total loss of power to NO last night) that worked to limit flooding from rainfall inside the "bowl" in New Orleans. However some older levees outside of New Orleans were breached and hundreds or maybe thousands experienced major flooding with some still trapped in their houses. I'm sure we'll find out more today about those folks.

https://www.reuters.com/.../hurricane-ida-plunges-new.../
Thanks for the info
 
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RUtrumpet92

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Updated numbers from this mornings report.

16500 roofs need repair
8000 roofs need replacement
2000 total loss

These are just for residential (shingles). Does not include commercial buildings. While bad, not as bad as our models originally predicted.
Great trend, even though it is very sad for thousands of people.
 
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RU848789

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Some interesting post-hurricane tidbits on Ida, which in the big picture was a forecast tour-de-force, with the track and intensity predictions being very close to actual conditions throughout the hurricane's journey. Probably the best summary of the storm and impacts, with a bunch of pictures and videos, is from the Washington Post in the link below.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/30/hurricane-ida-live-updates/

First off, a boat in Port Fourchon, where Ida first made landfall in SE Louisiana, recorded an official wind gust of 172 mph and a sustained wind of 149 mph, clearly verifying Ida's satellite and dropsonde measurements of 150 mph sustained winds at landfall. It's rare that recorded winds match those from satellites/dropsondes, mostly because there aren't that many high quality anemometers in the path of any landfalling hurricane (many weather stations have units that break before reaching 120 mph or more), plus winds over "regular" land lose a bit of punch from frictional effects, which is not the case in SE LA, where there's probably more water than land and zero elevation to speak of.

There were plenty of other gusts over 120 mph recorded, as per the tweet/graphic below. The damage to structures, trees, and the power grid (with over a million customers without power, including almost everyeon in New Orleans), mostly from Ida's winds was catastrophic throughout much of SE LA, as many have likely seen on TV or the internet.

Secondly, the storm surge was catastrophic (6-12 feet) throughout SE LA, leading to inundation of many towns and destruction of many structures (couldn't find a graphic on surge). In addition, the amount of rainfall was torrential, as expected, with 8-15"+ amounts in large parts of SE LA and southern MS and 5-8" amounts everywhere else in southern LA and much of southern MS/AL; see the graphic below. Serious to catastrophic inland flooding from rainfall, combined with storm surge in some places occurred.

Having said all that, the levee systems in LA and especially New Orleans stood up remarkably well, keeping flooding in areas protected by levees to a minimum, unlike what happened in Katrina, particularly in NO, where over 1000 died as the levees were breached. So far, there are only 2 reported deaths in LA from Ida and even if that rises to a few dozen, as expected, that's far, far less than from Katrina, which is a testament to the improved levee/pumping systems (plus surge was higher in NO from Katrina, although a Katrina level surge would've likely not been an issue for Ida).

Lastly, the storm isn't over yet, as the remnants of Ida are pummeling much of MS/AL/TN right now, with our area in the crosshairs next, as 3-5" of rain are expected throughout most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, with some spots possibly getting 6-7", as per the graphic below and the NWS discussions. There could be significant urban and stream flooding given how wet this summer has been. Much more on this in the gameday weather thread...


IiZyWCz.png


4vWaVpJ.png
 

RU848789

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And don't look now, but there's another potentially significant system emerging off the coast of Africa, as the "Cape Verde" season begins. This will likely become our next named system, Larry, in the next couple of day and needs to be watched, as some models show it making it all the way across the Atlantic as a hurricane and if that happens, it means that eventually it could impact anywhere from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast. Let's hope it's a fish storm...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just off the west coast of
Africa. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mostly on its south side. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

Proud NJ Sports Fan

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Some interesting post-hurricane tidbits on Ida, which in the big picture was a forecast tour-de-force, with the track and intensity predictions being very close to actual conditions throughout the hurricane's journey. Probably the best summary of the storm and impacts, with a bunch of pictures and videos, is from the Washington Post in the link below.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/30/hurricane-ida-live-updates/

First off, a boat in Port Fourchon, where Ida first made landfall in SE Louisiana, recorded an official wind gust of 172 mph and a sustained wind of 149 mph, clearly verifying Ida's satellite and dropsonde measurements of 150 mph sustained winds at landfall. It's rare that recorded winds match those from satellites/dropsondes, mostly because there aren't that many high quality anemometers in the path of any landfalling hurricane (many weather stations have units that break before reaching 120 mph or more), plus winds over "regular" land lose a bit of punch from frictional effects, which is not the case in SE LA, where there's probably more water than land and zero elevation to speak of.

There were plenty of other gusts over 120 mph recorded, as per the tweet/graphic below. The damage to structures, trees, and the power grid (with over a million customers without power, including almost everyeon in New Orleans), mostly from Ida's winds was catastrophic throughout much of SE LA, as many have likely seen on TV or the internet.

Secondly, the storm surge was catastrophic (6-12 feet) throughout SE LA, leading to inundation of many towns and destruction of many structures (couldn't find a graphic on surge). In addition, the amount of rainfall was torrential, as expected, with 8-15"+ amounts in large parts of SE LA and southern MS and 5-8" amounts everywhere else in southern LA and much of southern MS/AL; see the graphic below. Serious to catastrophic inland flooding from rainfall, combined with storm surge in some places occurred.

Having said all that, the levee systems in LA and especially New Orleans stood up remarkably well, keeping flooding in areas protected by levees to a minimum, unlike what happened in Katrina, particularly in NO, where over 1000 died as the levees were breached. So far, there are only 2 reported deaths in LA from Ida and even if that rises to a few dozen, as expected, that's far, far less than from Katrina, which is a testament to the improved levee/pumping systems (plus surge was higher in NO from Katrina, although a Katrina level surge would've likely not been an issue for Ida).

Lastly, the storm isn't over yet, as the remnants of Ida are pummeling much of MS/AL/TN right now, with our area in the crosshairs next, as 3-5" of rain are expected throughout most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, with some spots possibly getting 6-7", as per the graphic below and the NWS discussions. There could be significant urban and stream flooding given how wet this summer has been. Much more on this in the gameday weather thread...



IiZyWCz.png


4vWaVpJ.png

Is that part of Tennessee that recently had devastating floods in the path ?
 
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I guess I'm missing something in the video. How are they faking wind conditions?
the two toursits in shorts calm walking by in the background.

the one weatherguy with his back to the win wasn't struggling.. but the other one with one foot forward.. looks totally out of place and faking the force of the win.
 

mildone

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the two toursits in shorts calm walking by in the background.

the one weatherguy with his back to the win wasn't struggling.. but the other one with one foot forward.. looks totally out of place and faking the force of the win.
Look at the bushes and the baggy clothing on the two weather guys. Even something around the waist of the one guy in shorts is blowing around pretty hard. That verifies that there was a strong steady wind.

And that short clip doesn't reveal what kind of wind gusts people were experiencing at the time. Strong and unpredictable wind gusts are extremely common with such storms. Looks like the one weatherman was more comfortable with it, like the two guys in shorts.

The other weather guy seemed uncomfortable with it. Ever see someone rock back and forth when nervous about speaking in public? Looked like that, to me.

Gotta make a bunch of assumptions to reach a conclusion that they were intentionally faking the conditions, right? I'm always highly skeptical of such sort video clips. They can be extremely misleading. Why would weathermen would need to fake anything about the wind in the midst of a Cat 4 hurricane?

There's just not enough information in that video for me to form any kind of conclusion. Maybe the one guy was being a drama queen. Or maybe he had experienced some strong gusts a little before the clip started, and was being nervous and being proactive about more gusts.

Just know way to know. Not from that clip at least.
 

mildone

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The two guys walking past have no issues
True, those two and the one weatherman facing the camera all seem more relaxed.

But it was clearly very windy. And there's no possible way to know if the weatherman was intentionally faking something versus being uncomfortable with and nervous about wind gusts. We would have to make assumptions about his intent to conclude that he was intentionally faking.
 

BeantownKnight

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For all of the weather guys here, I just saw a projection last evening (Monday night) showing that the storm will be off the Central Jersey coast on Thursday at 6pm and significant rainfall extending throughout the state. Does this projection fall in line with what you've been hearing? I thought folks on this board previously said that the rain would be wrapped up by lunchtime Thursday.

Oh - and they're calling for 2-4" of rain here in Central New England on Friday. That's not a small amount.
 

Jm0513

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I apologize for crashing, but...
Do I leave for PPB today? Will I be stuck inside 2 days due to the rain?? I don't need sun, but prefer not to be there if it rains.
 
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mildone

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I apologize for crashing, but...
Do I leave for PPB today? Will I be stuck inside 2 days due to the rain?? I don't need sun, but prefer not to be there if it rains.
I actually like the beach when it's raining. But yeah, it's probably going to be a rainout all day tomorrow and the first half of Thursday. Second half of Thursday might wind up being really nice, though.

Wait, are you not going to the FB game Thursday night?
 
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Jm0513

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I actually like the beach when it's raining. But yeah, it's probably going to be a rainout all day tomorrow and the first half of Thursday. Second half of Thursday might wind up being really nice, though.

Wait, are you not going to the FB game Thursday night?
I did plan to go with my friend.(She has backup if I back out and thankfully she understands) The shore house is available(my ex just informed me yesterday)
and I kind of want to take advantage of that.
Also, a few friends are going to dine in Bay Head(?) Thursday night and there is an extra seat for me.
 

mildone

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I did plan to go with my friend.(She has backup if I back out and thankfully she understands) The shore house is available(my ex just informed me yesterday)
and I kind of want to take advantage of that.
Also, a few friends are going to dine in Bay Head(?) Thursday night and there is an extra seat for me.
Oh. Um... Well in that case, I would like to revise my earlier statement about the weather.

It's going to rain cats and dogs all the way through Thursday night (only at the shore). The flooding at all entry points to the NJ shore will be completely impassable. There will be sharks swimming in all the parking lots of all the best Bay Head eateries. There will be widespread tornadoes, sharknadoes, and lots of other kinds of 'nadoes.

Probably safest to just go to the game, where there will be tailgates, awesome food, great music, great people, and beautiful weather (only inland) starting around 3pm. Followed by RU crushing Temple 70 - 0.

And, if you and your friend are looking for a tailgate, you're always welcome at ours.

😃
 
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Proud NJ Sports Fan

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I did plan to go with my friend.(She has backup if I back out and thankfully she understands) The shore house is available(my ex just informed me yesterday)
and I kind of want to take advantage of that.
Also, a few friends are going to dine in Bay Head(?) Thursday night and there is an extra seat for me.

Check the forecast again tonight.

It may not rain all day tomorrow, it may start later in the day
 

RU848789

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I apologize for crashing, but...
Do I leave for PPB today? Will I be stuck inside 2 days due to the rain?? I don't need sun, but prefer not to be there if it rains.
Off and on showers most of the day tomorrow with very heavy rain tomorrow evening through about sunrise. Rain should be largely over by 10-11 am with a gorgeous day on tap after about noon. PPB should be getting a fair amount less rain (2-3" which is still a lot) than the 95 corridor and points NW of there, which are forecast to get 3-5". Here's your hourly forecast...

Plotter.php
 
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RU-05

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Weather Channel caught faking wind intensity during Hurricane Ida


Jim Cantore was noting in different broadcast(as were others) that if you stood behind a building, there was little wind, but in the wind tunnel itself, it was whipping. Watching that video I'm seeing Jim's pant's whipping pretty good while one of the guys walking past has his hat backwards towards the wind with no issue. So maybe they are offered some wind protection by something off screen?

Also looks like that was not a live broadcast, at least not from the camera in question, so I'm not sure the motivation to fake there.
 
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RU848789

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Look at the bushes and the baggy clothing on the two weather guys. Even something around the waist of the one guy in shorts is blowing around pretty hard. That verifies that there was a strong steady wind.

And that short clip doesn't reveal what kind of wind gusts people were experiencing at the time. Strong and unpredictable wind gusts are extremely common with such storms. Looks like the one weatherman was more comfortable with it, like the two guys in shorts.

The other weather guy seemed uncomfortable with it. Ever see someone rock back and forth when nervous about speaking in public? Looked like that, to me.

Gotta make a bunch of assumptions to reach a conclusion that they were intentionally faking the conditions, right? I'm always highly skeptical of such sort video clips. They can be extremely misleading. Why would weathermen would need to fake anything about the wind in the midst of a Cat 4 hurricane?

There's just not enough information in that video for me to form any kind of conclusion. Maybe the one guy was being a drama queen. Or maybe he had experienced some strong gusts a little before the clip started, and was being nervous and being proactive about more gusts.

Just know way to know. Not from that clip at least.
Excellent analysis. Title on that video is crap (and you can tell, because comments on the actual video have been turned off), but that's par for the course for what Tango posts. Also, those passersby were about 30 feet away and it's very possible the wind was much stronger for the weather guys than for those guys walking by over a 5 second period.
 
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RU-05

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Are those guys above the same guys here? Dude who wipes out looks like he felt that one.
 

RU848789

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For all of the weather guys here, I just saw a projection last evening (Monday night) showing that the storm will be off the Central Jersey coast on Thursday at 6pm and significant rainfall extending throughout the state. Does this projection fall in line with what you've been hearing? I thought folks on this board previously said that the rain would be wrapped up by lunchtime Thursday.

Oh - and they're calling for 2-4" of rain here in Central New England on Friday. That's not a small amount.
You've seen bad info. Rain will be largely over in NJ by sunrise with lingering showers over by about noon with a gorgeous day of tailgating and RU football to follow. Yes, there will likely be heavy rain (3-6") in New England, as per the map below, but the rain should be over by Thursday night, even in Boston, so Friday should be gorgeous there, too.

https://www.weather.gov/box/

Ida_rainfall.gif
 
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RU848789

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And don't look now, but there's another potentially significant system emerging off the coast of Africa, as the "Cape Verde" season begins. This will likely become our next named system, Larry, in the next couple of day and needs to be watched, as some models show it making it all the way across the Atlantic as a hurricane and if that happens, it means that eventually it could impact anywhere from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico to the East Coast. Let's hope it's a fish storm...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just off the west coast of
Africa. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mostly on its south side. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

We'll see Larry shortly, as we now have a tropical depression off the coast of Africa and it's forecast to be a hurricane in 3-5 days, heading WNW across the Atlantic. Most of the very long range models take Larry out to sea without impacting the Caribbean or the US, but that's too far out to be sure of yet, so watchful waiting is prudent.

SxU9VmA.png
 

rubaseball78

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My business is roofing (making, not installing). We track storms very closed for 2 reasons; one, it is our business to sell roofs and two we have several plants and a lot of our suppliers in storm areas.

We have a program/service that provides estimates on roof damage from storms. This morning we received report that they expect 24,000 roofs to be replaced, 13,000 roofs to need repair and 10,000 home totally lossed.
Received the lastest numbers after the storm passed through Louisiana. Model was pretty close in predictions. 21,000 roofs to be replaced, 14,000 roofs to need repair and 11,000 homes totally lossed. Residential only.
 
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