OT: Hurricane Ida taking aim at Louisiana and more as a likely major hurricane Sunday (8/29)

RU848789

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Posted about this elsewhere yesterday, as it was a tropical wave that the NHC felt had a high potential for becoming a tropical storm and then hurricane and unfortunately, they were right, as the wave has consolidated into a tropical depression and is expected to become TS Ida later today in the NW Caribbean. Conditions are favorable for significant strengthening once in the GOM, with very warm sea surface temps, light shear and moist conditions in the region.

As a result, Ida's forecast track has it becoming a Cat 1 hurricane as it enters the GOM, after likely going over the far western end of Cuba as a strong TS Friday night. The official forecast is for the storm to strike somewhere in Louisiana (New Orleans is clearly at risk here) as a strong Cat 2 hurricane (110 mph winds) very early Monday morning, although that's still 4 days out, so interests between the Texas coast and the Florida Panhandle need to be watching this.

Track forecasts are usually much better than intensity forecasts (except for Henri, lol) and there is some risk of Ida becoming a very powerful hurricane (Cat 3/4) - it's nearly unprecedented for an initial NHC forecast to predict rapid intensification to near major hurricane status. After absorbing five landfalling systems (3 hurricanes and 2 TS's) last season, as per the graphic below, the LA coast does not need another hurricane hitting there.

This system could eventually impact our area as a remnant storm by mid/late next week - yes that could mean some impact for the Temple game, but way too early to predict that. Some of the usual links below.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://weather.com/safety/hurrican...on-nine-forecast-tropical-storm-hurricane-ida

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55251-tropical-depression-nine/page/5/

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

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RU848789

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And we have TS Ida with 40 mph winds...and the forecast track shifted a fair amount closer to New Orleans with a potential major hurricane making landfall Sunday late afternoon.

204641_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 

RUGuitarMan

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Tropical systems that form in that area of the Caribbean and move over western Cuba into the GOM often become major hurricanes at this time of year. The projected path is not good for the US Gulf coast. Review the path and development of catastrophic Hurricane Camille in 1969. Not saying this storm will be anywhere near that but if conditions are favorable for intensification it’s in a bad location.
 
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Southern Gentleman

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Hurricanes are not fun for anyone, but we sure could use some rain in Arkansas. we haven’t had any significant rain in 5 weeks.
 

WhichReligionIsRight

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As someone who lives in disaster territory, nothing but the best wishes for folks in the Gulf area. Hope the meteorologists are wrong and the storm is smaller than expected, or blasts through the area quickly.
 
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RUPete

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Hurricanes are not fun for anyone, but we sure could use some rain in Arkansas. we haven’t had any significant rain in 5 weeks.
Wow- 5 weeks is a lot especially this time of year and where you are at. Maybe you guys need remnants from one of these things but I’m always cautious about wishing for that.
 
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T2Kplus20

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Not to be insensitive to the good folks that live on the LA/MS coast, I'm most interested to see what the forecast will be for next Thursday evening's game, understanding that it's way too early for a forecast.
+1
Why is this on a Rutgers/NJ board? The OP is nuts.
 

RU848789

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Hurricanes are not fun for anyone, but we sure could use some rain in Arkansas. we haven’t had any significant rain in 5 weeks.

Double-edged sword, as always. Unfortunately, for most of Arkansas, it's looking like little rain from Ida, with the exception of SE AR, which could get a couple of inches of rain. However, if the track moves west, so will the rain shield. The link below is the forecasted rain from Ida in the SE US through Tuesday. Will post the graphic shortly.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/234304.shtml?rainqpf#contents
 
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RU848789

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And we have TS Ida with 40 mph winds...and the forecast track shifted a fair amount closer to New Orleans with a potential major hurricane making landfall Sunday late afternoon.

204641_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

No major changes in the forecast for Ida, which is now a 40 mph TS and is still expected to be close to a Cat 3 major hurricane upon landfall somewhere in Louisiana, with the center of the forecast track making landfall about 50 miles SSW of New Orleans, meaning NO would be on the stronger, east side of the storm, and would be hammered with substantial storm surge flooding. If the forecast verifies - but unlike Henri (and Grace), which had significant track misses, the track forecast for Ida, so far, is very tightly clustered providing fairly high confidence that Ida is unlikely to have huge track deviations over the next 3 days before landfall. We'll see, of course.

Below is the track forecast and the rainfall forecast, which would certainly lead to substantial inland flooding from >6" of rain across much of southern LA/MS and >10" in parts of SE LA. As usual, scattered weak tornadoes would be likely along and east of the storm's track, possibly well inland. As of now, long range models are indicating that Ida's remnants will hopefully be through our area by early Thursday, such that Thursday might be decent - but we're a week out, so the uncertainty on that is very high.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

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RU848789

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The weather OT is fine. There’s a handful of clowns who always jump in on these posts who should move on - that includes the mods.
Don't get me started, lol. For now, I'm only doing notable weather and gameday weather threads, since I enjoy doing them and I think the silent majority likes them, although sometimes it's hard to tell. Might be worth a poll to see if I'm right on that or not. Have never done a poll here - do they only allow one vote per person - if so, could be worth it. Anyone?
 

BigEastPhil

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Don't get me started, lol. For now, I'm only doing notable weather and gameday weather threads, since I enjoy doing them and I think the silent majority likes them, although sometimes it's hard to tell. Might be worth a poll to see if I'm right on that or not. Have never done a poll here - do they only allow one vote per person - if so, could be worth it. Anyone?
I value your weather threads immensely. Some may be over the edge at times but that’s fine. I also enjoy the back and forth at times with other weather posters who may not have same viewpoints. 😁
 

Southern Gentleman

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Don't get me started, lol. For now, I'm only doing notable weather and gameday weather threads, since I enjoy doing them and I think the silent majority likes them, although sometimes it's hard to tell. Might be worth a poll to see if I'm right on that or not. Have never done a poll here - do they only allow one vote per person - if so, could be worth it. Anyone?
Although I don’t live in NJ, I appreciate your professionalism and always keep an eye on your reports. Weather issues effect everyone.
 

RUPete

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gameday forecast looks pretty good 6 days out
Remnants can always change that. The point is that it's a relevant discussion. Now that we're at the height of hurricane season they are all relevant discussions. The initial poster I was responding to was just busting balls again.
 

wheezer

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gameday forecast looks pretty good 6 days out
Usually the national weather forecast and accuweather seem to consider hurricane implications later on, close to the event it seems, when it is more apparent it may hit us

Accuweather had northern jersey with much less rainfall predicted until pretty close to the actual day
 
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cohwx

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No major changes in the forecast for Ida, which is now a 40 mph TS and is still expected to be close to a Cat 3 major hurricane upon landfall somewhere in Louisiana

This looks like a bad one. Appears to be intensifying rapidly now (probably just about a hurricane according to recon data) and will be taking an almost perfect track through a primed environment. I expect this to reach at least cat 3 and quite probably higher before landfall.
 
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e5fdny

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This looks like a bad one. Appears to be intensifying rapidly now (probably just about a hurricane according to recon data) and will be taking an almost perfect track through a primed environment. I expect this to reach at least cat 3 and quite probably higher before landfall.
If that happens how long inland does it stay at least a tropical storm?
 

RUGuitarMan

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An ominous sign that this is a hurricane prior to crossing western Cuba. It should not lose much going over relatively flat western Cuba, then into a very favorable area for strengthening. There have been some horrendous hurricanes that form in the western Caribbean and move into the southern GOM in late August , early Sept. This could be very bad for Louisiana and maybe New Orleans directly.
 
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RU848789

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An ominous sign that this is a hurricane prior to crossing western Cuba. It should not lose much going over relatively flat western Cuba, then into a very favorable area for strengthening. There have been some horrendous hurricanes that form in the western Caribbean and move into the southern GOM in late August , early Sept. This could be very bad for Louisiana and maybe New Orleans directly.
Agreed. This just had major hurricane written all over it from the get-go and one of those hitting the northern Gulf Coast, especially in SE LA, is a recipe for disaster. The evacuation order went out a few hours ago for anyone outside the levee system, which is designed to protect against a 12-16' surge (7-11' predicted for NO).

https://apnews.com/article/new-orle...Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP

Ida has strengthened from 30 mph to 75 mph in 24 hours and looks to be getting better organized and likely continuing what looks like a rapid intensification event. Could be a major hurricane in 24-36 hours and then a landfalling Cat 3/4, as per the models. For New Orleans's sake, let's hope the track stays 60 miles west of NO or moves even further west - they'll still get strong surge and flooding rains, but not as bad as it would be at 25 miles west of NO and winds would be much less at 60 miles west. Next update at 5 pm, but this is looking very serious.

09L_intensity_latest.png
 

RU848789

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No major changes in the forecast for Ida, which is now a 40 mph TS and is still expected to be close to a Cat 3 major hurricane upon landfall somewhere in Louisiana, with the center of the forecast track making landfall about 50 miles SSW of New Orleans, meaning NO would be on the stronger, east side of the storm, and would be hammered with substantial storm surge flooding. If the forecast verifies - but unlike Henri (and Grace), which had significant track misses, the track forecast for Ida, so far, is very tightly clustered providing fairly high confidence that Ida is unlikely to have huge track deviations over the next 3 days before landfall. We'll see, of course.

Below is the track forecast and the rainfall forecast, which would certainly lead to substantial inland flooding from >6" of rain across much of southern LA/MS and >10" in parts of SE LA. As usual, scattered weak tornadoes would be likely along and east of the storm's track, possibly well inland. As of now, long range models are indicating that Ida's remnants will hopefully be through our area by early Thursday, such that Thursday might be decent - but we're a week out, so the uncertainty on that is very high.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

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Just catching up on things and it's really starting to look like a potentially catastrophic event for Louisiana, with now Hurricane Ida (80 mph winds) forecast to strengthen into a Cat 4 storm (140 mph winds) at landfall in SE LA, with the track center heading on shore around Morgan City about 65 miles WSW of New Orleans. While the track has remained largely unchanged, with very strong model agreement, the NHC jacked the intensity up at landfall from 120 mph 6 hours ago to 140 mph now. Given current 80 mph winds, that's fairly unprecedented strengthening in a 36-48 hour forecast and indicates that the storm could be even stronger. Track, surge, and rainfall graphics are below, along with the intensity/location table and the usual links.

Evacuation orders are up for much of coastal LA, including NO outside of the protective levees, which are designed for the 7-11' surge there; that level surge and the 10-15' surge forecast down at the Gulf Coast in SE LA, could be deadly for anyone staying behind. Rainfall of 10-15" for much of LA and into MS, which is well above normal in rainfall (NO is 20" above normal for the year), will lead to caastrophic flooding in some locations and, of course, 140 mph winds near the storm, will result in serious destruction. Winds could even be over 80 mph up to 75 miles inland, so downed trees and power outages are likely to be widespread. And we should expect numerous small tornadoes east of the track. Not good.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP LOW


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55251-hurricane-ida/page/12/

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...27-tropical-storm-hurricane-ida-forecast-gulf


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BigEastPhil

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What the weather folks such as TWC should emphasize with hurricanes are water surges and inches of rain to occur - not so much the winds. The winds draw the headlines but the water surges etc kill much more.
 

RU848789

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Ida has emerged off the coast of western Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico and the interaction with Cuba barely put a dent in the storm, which is not a good sign. Every model shows some fairly rapid/significant intensification over the next 36 hours, given the low shear and high moisture environment around the storm, combined with the very warm waters in the path of the storm (85-88F). Those factors don't "guarantee" such strengthening, but they make it quite likely.

The 11 pm NHC forecast is largely unchanged from 5 pm, with Ida expected to make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane Sunday evening with 135-140 mph winds somewhere along the SE Louisiana coast (again the track center is somewhere between Houma and Morgan City, which is about 60-70 miles SW and then W of New Orleans, sparing NO the worst of the storm (except for rainfall), but the track could easily shift back much closer to NO, as a 40-50 mile shift is pretty minor from a modeling perspective 42 hours out, bringing the worst weather to the city (especially surge/winds).

The really scary thing is people who should be evacuating (most in its path, really) only have about 30 to maybe 36 hours to do so, as conditions will start deteriorating Sunday morning. This will be a serious storm with life-threatening winds, storm surge and flooding rains (and some tornadoes).
 

RU#1fan

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Heard it was moving faster than expected. Maybe out of here by Thursday night.
 

OTBOTOR

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IDK crap about forecasts but looking at the tracker above it probably won’t even be here by then. Fingers crossed

two notes on that: these things tend to accelerate as they move to higher latitudes; and as the circulation collapses that long after landfall, all of the rain moves out up to a couple hundred miles ahead of wherever the “center” is. So if the “center” reaches West Virginia or Maryland by Thursday night, we’re probably getting heavy rain here.