Weather for UM: seasonable (near 70F), but iffy on precip

[RU848789]

NWS forecast is officially iffy: partly sunny and a chance of showers with a high near 70F - covering all the bases, lol, but understandable given the high uncertainty that far out, in general, plus the potential effects from Matthew, if it comes anywhere close to us (unlikely, but possible). The NWS-discussions, below, from the NYC and Philly offices were very non-commital. This is one game where a noon start would've been better than a late start, at least with regard to Matthew, as Matthew is more likely to arrive near our latitude after the game than during/before (if it comes near the coast, which is still unlikely).

NYC: For the late week into the weekend...sensible weather details and
the evolution of Matthew are quite uncertain. Forecast sensitivity
continues to be tied to the evolution of the offshore trough, the
late week evolution of the trough energy coming into the West Coast
this weekend, and the development of Matthew itself.
Refer to the National Hurricane center forecasts for the latest
information on Matthew.

Philly: Saturday`s low confidence forecast takes into account
the approaching cold front, mid-level trof, and Matthew.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

With regard to Matthew, as I just said in that thread, it's still unclear where it goes from the Bahamas, but tonight's runs will be watched very carefully, as the SE US east coast is now just about within a 5-day cone from tonight's model runs (if it were to head that way, which would be a surprise). Unless the storm accelerates some after the Bahamas, it's unlikely to be much of a factor for our game (unless there's a predecessor rain event where moisture ahead of the storm has an impact well north of the storm's center), but impacts can't be ruled out as hurricanes often accelerate above about 25N in the Atlantic.

 

[bac2therac]

Lol models got the past 3 day event wrong..hard to trust them even 24 hours out at this point

 

[RU4Real]

As long as it's not too windy. I hate it when the sternos keep going out.

 

[HailHailToMichigan]

Game's at 8 though.. I'm seeing overnight temps near 50.

 

[RU848789]

No change in the NWS forecast for seasonable (high near 70F and gametime temps dropping through the 60s; normal is 69/45F) temps and some possible showers, due to both Matthew, even if it's several hundred miles away, as forecast (it's a large storm), and the approaching trough.

Uncertainty is high, due to the uncertainty around Matthew's path and timing. If Matthew follows the NHC track, the tailgates will likely be mainly dry and the game could see a shower or two, but track forecast errors are several hundred miles 6 days out, so Matthew could end up closer or further away, greatly affecting the forecast.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[waretown]

Game's at 8 though.. I'm seeing overnight temps near 50.

7 pm?

 

[RU848789]

7 pm?

shhhh...yes, game is at 7 pm, but don't tell the UM fans...

 

[RUBigFrank]

Storm is moving at 6 MPH currently. The slower it moves the more likely it takes that right turn into the Atlantic.

 

[MoobyCow]

shhhh...yes, game is at 7 pm, but don't tell the UM fans...

Forget the fans, don't tell UM.

 

[RU4Real]

Storm is moving at 6 MPH currently. The slower it moves the more likely it takes that right turn into the Atlantic.

This isn't true.

Regardless, the 12Z run of the GFS shows the center of Matthew near OBX but a strong interaction with the approaching cold front brings rain into the central NJ area beginning about 2PM on Saturday. That interaction, along with the continuing NNE movement of the storm, brings very heavy rain into the region early Sunday morning.

 

[MoobyCow]

This isn't true.

Regardless, the 12Z run of the GFS shows the center of Matthew near OBX but a strong interaction with the approaching cold front brings rain into the central NJ area beginning about 2PM on Saturday. That interaction, along with the continuing NNE movement of the storm, brings very heavy rain into the region early Sunday morning.

F.

 

[RU4Real]

F.

I hear that.

 

[PatrickRU92]

ah yes. A tropical storm hitting NJ on game day. How surprising that I'm supposed to come to the game

BTW there goes the "stripe out"

 

[RU4Real]

ah yes. A tropical storm hitting NJ on game day. How surprising that I'm supposed to come to the game

BTW there goes the "stripe out"

This is gonna suck.

 

[RUBigFrank]

This isn't true.

Regardless, the 12Z run of the GFS shows the center of Matthew near OBX but a strong interaction with the approaching cold front brings rain into the central NJ area beginning about 2PM on Saturday. That interaction, along with the continuing NNE movement of the storm, brings very heavy rain into the region early Sunday morning.

Not sure how definitive that progression and interaction will be. If you notice the NHC has been reducing the northern progression of this storm. Too many variables to account for at this time due to the slow movement.

 

[RU4Real]

Not sure how definitive that progression and interaction will be. If you notice the NHC has been reducing the northern progression of this storm. Too many variables to account for at this time due to the slow movement.

The NHC won't be integrating consideration of the latest model runs until their 5PM update. Let's see what they say then.

 

[RUBigFrank]

two oclock report shows a slight turn Northeast
From NHC:
Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
time, the track forecast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

 

[rurichdog]

ah yes. A tropical storm hitting NJ on game day. How surprising that I'm supposed to come to the game

BTW there goes the "stripe out"

As soon as you said you were going to the game, I pulled the foul weather gear out of storage.

 

[WhiteBus]

Rain will help the defenders of the stripe out when it fails. They will just say that all the yellow and blue in the stands are raincoats.

 

[HailHailToMichigan]

7 pm?

It was listed as 8 when I posted that. Updated to 7 on Sunday

 

[RU848789]

Huge uncertainty still. Matthew's track will definitely be adjusted westward towards FL and SC/NC, for the Day 3-5 period, as the main models are in decent agreement that Matthew progresses over the Bahamas and then up (but offshore) the central/northern FL coast, followed by a very close call with the SC/NC coast with some models (including the GFS and UK) showing landfall and some (including the Euro) not.

After day 5 the models, especially the Euro, diverge wildly. If the GFS/UK are right, we likely get some showers during the day on Saturday, then moderate to heavy rains during the game and torrential rains early Sunday, via a potential "Predecessor Rain Event," which I mentioned a few days ago (where heavy rains set up well to the NW of the storm, partly due to interactions with an approaching trough. If the Euro is right, we may get a light shower or two late Saturday and that's it. Root for the Euro.

Here's what the NWS-Philly just said (officially, they're saying 50% chance of showers Sat night)...

Then our attention turns to Hurricane Matthew for the weekend. The
upper ridge progresses downstream of the forecast area and into the
western Atlantic Ocean this weekend. Meanwhile, an upstream trough
moves eastward through the Great Lakes/Midwest regions on Saturday
and then the Northeast on Sunday. Initially, the tropical cyclone
(TC) is expected to be steered northward around the western
periphery of the ridge somewhere near the Southeast coast or
potentially farther offshore. The track of Matthew then becomes
even more uncertain as additional constituents from the mid
latitudes come into play. The timing of and degree of interaction
between the TC and the upstream mid latitude trough will influence
the track of Matthew, specifically whether it will be pulled
northward up the East coast or re-curve out to sea. Even if
Matthew tracks well offshore to spare the northern mid-Atlantic
region from direct impacts of strong winds and significant storm
surge, there is a scenario on the table where the forecast area would
be under a threat for heavy rainfall if the TC phases with the
mid latitude trough that acquires a negative tilt. In this case,
the pattern increasingly resembles composite studies for left-
of-track Predecessor Rainfall Events (PREs). The past few runs of
the GFS depict this wetter scenario. Conversely, there is another
camp of models that depict limited phasing between both
aforementioned systems. In the latter scenario, the TC would
eventually be steered out to sea either Sunday or Monday,
resulting in a mainly dry weekend except maybe for some light
showers with the passage of a cold front. For now have gone with a
blend of the guidance and the previous official forecast. PoPs
trended higher for the weekend, but are still in chance range

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

And here's what the NWS-NYC had to say (they think the daytime on Saturday is dry). I found their statement that the WPC (Weather Prediction Center - the "regular" mets, not the tropical mets in NHC) was discounting the Euro's handling of the trough (I bolded that part) to be quite interesting...

There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

For now, have kept Saturday dry, as there is a general trend towards
a slower progress of Matthew northward as it approaches, so figure
could see some slowing in the future as well. Do expect rapid
acceleration as the storm comes out of the NC Capes as it interacts
with the trough approaching from the west. Do have chance pops for
rain Saturday night and Sunday, tapering to slight chance pops
Sunday night as Matthew probably is exiting to the NE into the
Canadian Maritimes.

There is the potential for a Predecessor Rain Band (PRE) with timing
in the late Saturday/sunday time frame most likely at this time.
This appears to have a decent chance of impacting the area, even if
Matthew stays to the south/east. If it occurs, then heavy rainfall
can be expected. The other likely impact is dangerous rip currents
and probable beach erosion at Atlantic Beaches.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

The storm is moving like our offense. Very slowly and with no particular destination ..:)

 

[RUBigFrank]

well the projected path looks like a well run receiver route with move east and then west over the OBX. Looks to southerly to impact us for Saturday save for a counter clock wise stray band

 

[RUBigFrank]

 

[RU848789]

well the projected path looks like a well run receiver route with move east and then west over the OBX. Looks to southerly to impact us for Saturday save for a counter clock wise stray band

You need to look at what I posted about a PRE - predecessor rain event. In many cases like this, with a tropical system and a trough interacting (and injecting non-tropical characteristics into the storm) the precip shield extends several hundred miles NW of the storm's center, such that a location along the NC coast at maybe 34-35N on Saturday evening, could result in heavy rains here, as depicted in some of the models.

This is not a given, but it's possible, especially with @PatrickRU92 in town for the game, lol. It's also quite possible the tailgates are mostly dry and that we only see a few showers during the game, if the more southerly Euro verifies or if the PRE doesn't materialize until Sunday morning. Bottom line is the range of possibilities for the game are quite wide and we won't know the forecast much better for a couple of days, at least.

 

[Abro1975]

I think I'll look outside my window Saturday morning and then check my weather app on my phone :)

 

[RUaMoose]

I know you guys are worried about a fb game we're likely to lose by 5TDs but I kind of like the idea of getting hit by this storm. We could use a good 4-5 inches of rain. Looks like If it does come up the coast the worst part of it won't be until Sunday anyway.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Sunday is fine by me as long as it is not a direct hit

 

[bac2therac]

no one needs 4-5 inches of rain

 

[AshSaturday]

no one needs 4-5 inches of rain

Aren't we in a rain defcit?

 

[RU1977]

1-2 ok, 4-5 floods my basement - no thanks.....

 

[MoobyCow]

Aren't we in a rain defcit?

Getting it all back at one time isn't all the helpful, most just flows out into the ocean anyway, making a big mess at the same time.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Need the rain - as I have recently biked past the Swimming River reservoir in Monmouth County - there are extensive mud flats where water should be.

Five inches of rain would be beneficial (but could be messy).

 

[RUBigFrank]

 

[RUBigFrank]

Based on the current "cone of indecision" it looks like some impact from this storm Saturday evening.

 

[RUBigFrank]

 

[RU848789]

You need to look at what I posted about a PRE - predecessor rain event. In many cases like this, with a tropical system and a trough interacting (and injecting non-tropical characteristics into the storm) the precip shield extends several hundred miles NW of the storm's center, such that a location along the NC coast at maybe 34-35N on Saturday evening, could result in heavy rains here, as depicted in some of the models.

This is not a given, but it's possible, especially with @PatrickRU92 in town for the game, lol. It's also quite possible the tailgates are mostly dry and that we only see a few showers during the game, if the more southerly Euro verifies or if the PRE doesn't materialize until Sunday morning. Bottom line is the range of possibilities for the game are quite wide and we won't know the forecast much better for a couple of days, at least.

Some amazing model/plot twists and turns since yesterday, lol. Bottom line is that a run up the coast at/near NJ this weekend (Days 4-5 now) is an essentially dead idea, which is not going to happen, so we don't need to worry about any wild weather up here this weekend. Crazy shit might happen after Day 5-6, like we're seeing with the loops on the Euro/GFS models, but at least the storm isn't coming here for this weekend.

No idea what the NWS is going to forecast for Saturday now, although all of the models basically show Matthew being near or a bit south of the NC coast on Saturday, before the wild divergence we're seeing after that (with loops or a run from NC to either the Canadian Maritimes or just well out to sea). That position on Saturday will likely result in a close call for the game with the potential for "some" (i.e., 1/2" or less) rain to little or no rain, depending on the interaction with the trough/cold front approaching the east coast on Saturday.

Edit: NWS just updated their forecast with the ~4 am package. Basically calling for no impacts from Matthew, as expected given the model runs today/tonight, but still calling for some rain on Saturday and especially Saturday night with the approaching front. Now it'll ke any other normal game, lol, where it's all about the timing of the front and the level of instability associated with it (and the extent of any moisture feed from Matthew, which will be near the SC/NC coast at that time).

Best guess now is cloudy and warm (highs around 70F, which is about normal) for the tailgates with a couple of light showers (probably <0.1" - NWS isn't showing amounts yet), followed by cloudy and mild during the game (temps dropping to about 60F by the end of the game), with probably some light to moderate showers (maybe 0.1-0.2" of rain?). If one had to plan now, a canopy would likely be in order, but the day should not be a washout. Stay tuned. Here's what the NWS had to say...

The latest guid and NHC track has taken on some important trends.
Both the GFS and ECMWF bring Matthew up the FL cst on Fri then
close to the sern Conus cst. On the 05/00Z runs, the GFS and ECMWF
have Matthew making a hard right turn off of SC and going further
ewd then making a loop de loop for most of the week. Beyond that,
the guid diverges as to the ultimate disposition of the sys.

The good news with these trends are is that they lessen any
impacts to our area in the shorter term. Ultimately if this track
is correct, there may be few if any impacts at all. However, with
the sys lurking in the Atlc, it needs to be watched for potential
impacts down the road. So have toned down precip chcs and wind for
the weekend, it is psbl things change once again. Please see
latest NHC advisories for all the information on Matthew.

We will still see a shot of rain on Sat, potentially lingering
into Sat night, with the front, not from Matthew. Then beyond
that, high pres builds over the ern seaboard again, which will
bring us nice wx and help control the motion of Matthew.

 

[bac2therac]

There is a decent chance we get no rain at all but its just too early to be confident until the details with the players on the models get sorted out

 

[RU205]

rain Saturday morning but not afternoon?

 

[retired711]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.4862&lon=-74.4518#.V_UvkSTlwxI

Here's the current (12;53 p.m., Wednesday) NWS forecast for New Brunswick; it shows a significant (but less than 50-50) chance of showers on Saturday and Saturday night,