Weather for UM: seasonable (near 70F), but iffy on precip
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
As expected, forecast is still in doubt. Best guess right now is that it'll be dry through 2-3 pm and then we'll likely have a few light showers from then through the game with maybe 0.10" of rain before kickoff and maybe another 0.05-0.10" of rain during the game. For most, that is nuisance level rain, especially with mild temps and no wind. Much of the time there will be no rain at all.
What is not in doubt is that it wll be cloudy and mild with high temps near 70F and gametime temps in the low/mid 60s, with no wind to speak of. If that forecast verifies, it won't be too bad of a day, although most people will probably benefit from a canopy for their tailgate and rain gear for the game. I'll be the guy trying to convince my group to not put up the canopy, lol, as I hate canopies, but I'll probably lose that argument. And I'm not even sure what rain gear is
However, the difficulty in the forecast is that some models are showing more significant rains due to the moisture feed north from Matthew and there is the potential for more like 1/4-1/2" of rain for P'way - other models are showing almost no rain at all. The official NWS forecast is calling for much more rain towards the S/E of P'way with up to 1/2" of rain forecast for most of the Jersey Shore and much of NJ south of 195 and even up to 1" of rain in far southern NJ and DE. So, we're obviously not that far away from heavier rains, meaning it won't take a major shift in how the setup evolves today to bring us more rain in P'way. Let's hope the official forecast is correct.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
That is the most accurate forecast you've ever made. The canopies are going up immediately and are not coming down until we head for the stadium. And don't forget to bring yours. :D
Trending a little wetter for the game, i.e., 0.1-0.2"; tailgates still look pretty good with <0.1" of rain. Nowcasting time. Gotta go - let's shock the nation!
Well I watched Amy Freeze this morning and she said not to cancel outdoor plans. So that's good enough for me.
In Bucks County, across the river from Burlington NJ. Yes its raining here. Steady
Radar looks like tailgating is going to be wet. rain coming at us from all angles it appears. Sucks for tailgating but most importantly want the game to be dry and it looks like our best hope is it passes over us by then. fingers crossed
the stuff streaming from the south may only make it so far north, the hope is it stays south of the 195 line down to the coast, if it does that we are spared the heavier stuff and just have to deal with the stuff coming from pennslyvania with the front which is much lighter
Bottom line is its still maybe 60-90 minutes before showers start so early tailgaters will have a nice buzz on but looks like the 2-5PM time period we will be under the gun. Gametime itself could be dry if we dont get much or any of that stuff from the south and to be honest that is the most important thing if we have to sacrifice the tailgate so be it.
Bottom line is its still maybe 60-90 minutes before showers start so early tailgaters will have a nice buzz on but looks like the 2-5PM time period we will be under the gun. Gametime itself could be dry if we dont get much or any of that stuff from the south and to be honest that is the most important thing if we have to sacrifice the tailgate so be it.
The moment someone here said we'd get brief showers and have a dry game.. that Matthew wasn't our storm.. we were doomed.
While it won't look like Domers at NCState... I expect to be drenched.
While it won't look like Domers at NCState... I expect to be drenched.
No, it is not raining, but the NWC says that rain will fall after 1 p.m. with .10 to .25 falling, and that there will be heavier rain this evening. The last I checked, this storm is supposed to arrive here before it gets to Piscataway. Here's the forecast for my zip code in Cherry Hill:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.902243440183724&lon=-74.9653273123048#.V_kkyMmM6So
And, btw, here's the NWS forecast for this afternoon and evening. It doesn't look good for the 5:30 to 9 p.m. range, with more rain expected in the evening than before.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.49926948300049&lon=-74.39903704899967#.V_koQcmM6So
Yeah, radar trends aren't good. While it will take some time to overcome the drier air in place, I'd expect to see some rain in P-way by 2-3 pm, from the SW. Question is whether the batch of precip approaching from the front to our NW holds together and gives us even more rain, since the batch coming from the SW might slide to our SE as the afternoon progresses. This storm tracking thread with tons of great radars, water vapor loops and other geeky goodness is always worth checking...
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/
A little drizzle just started here in Metuchen and it looks like it probably just started raining lightly in P-way. Oh well. Next hope is that it remains light - the moderate rain is still south of 195 and is not solid south of 195, so maybe we'll catch a small break and not get that rain. Definitely nowcasting time...
It has been definitely raining in Cherry Hill for the last half hour. It is nuisance level or a little worse. Because the wind is calm, a fan could be fine with an umbrella.
Going to be a real close call between nuisance rain and rainy. The rain associated more with the approaching front to our west is dissipating as it approaches and hopefully won't flare back up. The much more substantial rains to our SW and south, being juiced my the moisture feed from Matthew are going to be a close call for the tailgates and game, as they're definitely going to be heavier to the S/E of the Turnpike (1/4-1/2" as noted earlier), but it's not clear if they'll keep up to the NW of the Turnpike.
Right now there's no rain north of 78 and well to our west and the models show the front largely keeping the rain out of NW NJ, but whether that mostly keeps the rain SE of the Turnpike later in the day is an open question. Hate to be non-committal, but there could be anywhere from 0.1" in P-way to 0.4-0.5", depending on where that line sets up. Well, nothing anyone can do about it - time to head to the game...
Right now there's no rain north of 78 and well to our west and the models show the front largely keeping the rain out of NW NJ, but whether that mostly keeps the rain SE of the Turnpike later in the day is an open question. Hate to be non-committal, but there could be anywhere from 0.1" in P-way to 0.4-0.5", depending on where that line sets up. Well, nothing anyone can do about it - time to head to the game...
Weather
2:05 pm EDT
Expect occasional rain to end at 7:00pm.
TIME DESCRIPTION TEMP FEELS PRECIP HUMIDITY WIND
2:45 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Light Rain
66° 66° 90% 90% E 2 mph
3:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Light Rain
66° 66° 80% 91% E 3 mph
4:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Rain
67° 67° 70% 90% ESE 3 mph
5:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Rain
66° 66° 70% 93% ESE 3 mph
6:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Showers
66° 66° 55% 85% SE 3 mph
7:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
65° 65° 25% 91% ESE 1 mph
8:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
64° 64° 10% 94% Calm
9:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
63° 63° 10% 95% Calm
10:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
62° 62° 15% 94% Calm
11:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
62° 62° 10% 94% Calm
12:00 AM
SUN, OCT 9
Cloudy
61° 61° 15% 93% NNW 1 mph
1:00 AM
SUN, OCT 9
Cloudy
61° 61° 25% 91% NW 2 mph
2:05 pm EDT
Expect occasional rain to end at 7:00pm.
TIME DESCRIPTION TEMP FEELS PRECIP HUMIDITY WIND
2:45 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Light Rain
66° 66° 90% 90% E 2 mph
3:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Light Rain
66° 66° 80% 91% E 3 mph
4:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Rain
67° 67° 70% 90% ESE 3 mph
5:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Rain
66° 66° 70% 93% ESE 3 mph
6:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Showers
66° 66° 55% 85% SE 3 mph
7:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
65° 65° 25% 91% ESE 1 mph
8:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
64° 64° 10% 94% Calm
9:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
63° 63° 10% 95% Calm
10:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
62° 62° 15% 94% Calm
11:00 PM
SAT, OCT 8
Cloudy
62° 62° 10% 94% Calm
12:00 AM
SUN, OCT 9
Cloudy
61° 61° 15% 93% NNW 1 mph
1:00 AM
SUN, OCT 9
Cloudy
61° 61° 25% 91% NW 2 mph
Drier air starting to push in northern somerset so hopefully that continues to push southeast...if so rain could be over by 6 if not a little sooner. Im getting more confident game should be dry
have to say (knock on wood) the latest satellite animation looks favorable . Not counting my chickens yet. Seems like could be a carbon copy of State Penn game 2014
Not even close to a carbon copy. I drank totally different beers that day.[cheers]
This is awesome. Pretty much hasn't rained by me since July. My lawn and shrubs are toast as a result. But sure as sh*t, it rains today exactly between the beginning of tailgate time and the end of the game. On the one game this year so far you can actually tailgate for. Perfect.
Look on the bright side: Matthew isn't coming. But I sympathize. A 7 p.m. Saturday game offers a great time for tailgating. Stay dry!
Felt like nuisance rain to me, for the most part, with 0.2" falling in NB. Felt like we got about 0.15" or so during the 2-7 pm prime tailgating time (it started just before 2 pm in Metuchen - not sure about P'way, but it was raining by our 3 pm arrival in P'way. And then it mostly stopped raining by maybe 5 pm and we even saw a break in the clouds well to our west near sunset. I'm guessing we then got another 0.05" or so in the 1Q with that last shower and then it was pretty much dry for the rest of the game.
Fortunately, we didn't get the 1/2" to 1" observed not too far to the SE of P'way - as close by as Holmdel had nearly 3/4" of rain. On the flip side, as close by as Hillsborough and Hopewell only got about 0.05" and nothing fell north or west of the intersection of 78 and the Parkway. Watching the radar during the tailgates, we ended up mostly on the good side of the front, as most of the heavy rain was pushed to our SE, as hoped. All in all, a decent job by the NWS with a tough forecast.
The preliminary read on next Saturday's game, if anyone cares anymore, is for gorgeous early fall weather with temps in the mid-60s for highs after cool morning lows in the mid-40s. Not sure if I actually care enough to start a thread, lol...
http://www.njweather.org/data/sub/1/day
