Weather for UM: seasonable (near 70F), but iffy on precip
- Thread starter RU848789
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If I had asked anyone over the past 3-4 days if they would've taken the weather in the graphic below, everyone would've jumped at it. It ain't perfect, but it ain't bad either. I could live with 0.05" of rain from 2 pm to 8 pm, with no wind, mostly cloudy skies and mild temps. By the way, the NWS in NYC shows essentially an identical forecast graphic for nearby SI/Union County.
Sure this could still change some, but not by a lot, I don't think. If this verified, the biggest issue would be the whining at our tailgate if I didn't set the friggin' canopy up for a couple of 10 minute light showers, lol. We have a sensitive group.
Sure this could still change some, but not by a lot, I don't think. If this verified, the biggest issue would be the whining at our tailgate if I didn't set the friggin' canopy up for a couple of 10 minute light showers, lol. We have a sensitive group.
You have to set up the canopies, regardless of the weather. It helps to establish boundaries. Otherwise the neighbors, like @LeapinLou, will come over and invade your space. lol
I get that in Blue, which is filled with riff-raff and ne'er-do-wells - we don't have those issues in Yellow.
We don't either. I was just bustin' Lou's balls. Yellow is a way more civilized venue.
I know - it's good to bust Lou's balls regularly - keeps 'em limber. As I've said a few times, if it weren't for the exiting issues, we'd still likely be in blue...
The NWS forecast for Piscataway shows .1 to .25 inches of rain in the afternoon, with 50% chance of showers. Seems like tailgates will be wet.
Chances of showers go down in the evening but still 25%. So the game could get wet too. Temps will be dropping into low 60s during the game, which can get chilly with showers.
Not the worst forecast, mind you, especially with what could have happened with Matthew. But ANY game with rain SUCKS.
Chances of showers go down in the evening but still 25%. So the game could get wet too. Temps will be dropping into low 60s during the game, which can get chilly with showers.
Not the worst forecast, mind you, especially with what could have happened with Matthew. But ANY game with rain SUCKS.
Doesn't suck too bad, but 100% bone dry is always better. Always sucks when the only chance of rain for a week is basically the 6-8 hours around the game.
Speckles versus stripes. Good news is the hardy diehard fans that make all the noise will be there no matter what.
Here's the latest from the National Weather Service. There is a 50/50 chance of rain.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.4993&lon=-74.399#.V_aErCTlwxI
Relax people nothi g has changed..there is a chance of showers for tailgating and the game...not going to be able to get more specfic at this time
whether the showers are of the nuisance variety of less than .10 and maybe not needing a poncho for the game or whether they are heavier is going to depend upon whether any moisture from Matthew is tapped into. Its a possiblity but not a certainty so thats why this forecast really could go either way, it could be drier or it could be wetter. Looking like its going to come down to radar watching Saturday morning to really have any confidence in how things shake out
Hurricane Matthew will likely be tracking northward from near the
Florida coast toward the GA/SC coastlines. Please refer to NHC for
the latest updates. Some moisture from Matthew will likely be sent
northward into our region ahead of a cold front. Both of these
factors will likely lead to the development of some showers.
However, the front will be weak in nature along with persistent west
atlantic ridging. Both of these factors will keep the storm closer
to the southeast United States through most of the next seven days.
Some tropical moisture though could stream northward and interact
with the front. In this case some locally heavy rainfall could
occur. Bumped up QPF a little bit (still under 1/2 inch) over the
ensemble and model consensus for this possibility on Saturday.
Timed the highest chance of showers from west to east with showers
arriving in the morning across Eastern PA/MD and in the afternoon
further east. Stayed close to MET/MAV/ECMWF blend for temperatures
and winds.
Hurricane Matthew will likely be tracking northward from near the
Florida coast toward the GA/SC coastlines. Please refer to NHC for
the latest updates. Some moisture from Matthew will likely be sent
northward into our region ahead of a cold front. Both of these
factors will likely lead to the development of some showers.
However, the front will be weak in nature along with persistent west
atlantic ridging. Both of these factors will keep the storm closer
to the southeast United States through most of the next seven days.
Some tropical moisture though could stream northward and interact
with the front. In this case some locally heavy rainfall could
occur. Bumped up QPF a little bit (still under 1/2 inch) over the
ensemble and model consensus for this possibility on Saturday.
Timed the highest chance of showers from west to east with showers
arriving in the morning across Eastern PA/MD and in the afternoon
further east. Stayed close to MET/MAV/ECMWF blend for temperatures
and winds.
No real change to the "iffy" part of the forecast, all week, really, as it's still going to be a close call for the tailgates and the game with regard to whether we just get nuisance rain (<0.1" currently predicted from 2-8 pm and <0.05" predicted for the game) or we get more substantial rain (i.e., up to 1/4-1/2"), as the Euro is showing, given the potential for moisture from Matthew streaming north along the approaching cold front.
Very difficult to predict that interaction with much accuracy - probably won't know for sure until early Saturday. The rest of the forecast is a lock, i.e., it will be mostly cloudy and warm, with ~70F for a high and temps in the 60s for the game an no wind to speak of. If we get just the nuisance rain, hopefully most of our fans will still make it, but if we get more than that, we know much of our fan base will stay home.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pres near Hudson Bay will be moving ewd a the start of the
pd, and its assocd cdfnt will approach the area from the w, and
move through the region durg Sat and offshore durg Sat eve. THis
front will bring some rain chcs with it, but the guid is
disagreeing a bit on the extent of the rain and the areal
coverage.
As Hurricane Matthew moves up the southeastern CONUS coast, it
will make it to somewhere off of SC or NC before turning more ewd
and out to sea. Some of the moisture from Matthew will move nwd
alg the front on Sat and cud help enhance the precip, so it seems
like the wetter ECMWF soln has some merit.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Very difficult to predict that interaction with much accuracy - probably won't know for sure until early Saturday. The rest of the forecast is a lock, i.e., it will be mostly cloudy and warm, with ~70F for a high and temps in the 60s for the game an no wind to speak of. If we get just the nuisance rain, hopefully most of our fans will still make it, but if we get more than that, we know much of our fan base will stay home.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pres near Hudson Bay will be moving ewd a the start of the
pd, and its assocd cdfnt will approach the area from the w, and
move through the region durg Sat and offshore durg Sat eve. THis
front will bring some rain chcs with it, but the guid is
disagreeing a bit on the extent of the rain and the areal
coverage.
As Hurricane Matthew moves up the southeastern CONUS coast, it
will make it to somewhere off of SC or NC before turning more ewd
and out to sea. Some of the moisture from Matthew will move nwd
alg the front on Sat and cud help enhance the precip, so it seems
like the wetter ECMWF soln has some merit.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Is one of these models generally more accurate with precipitation 24 hours out? Just curious. Thanks for all your imput and insight to all the weather folks we have!
Isn't this very similar to the last Michigan game forecast? Maybe it wasn't as warm but rain-wise?
It actually rained though during the PSU tailgate, right? IIRC the forecast for Mich was rain and rain and we got neither, no? Or am I flip-flopping them lol?
Sorry my man I don't remember the forecast. Don't remember what I had for lunch yesterday for that matter. I do remember sitting under my suv's tailgate during the on and off rain prior to the PSU game listening to the woman next to us singing "There's no more sanctions!" while dancing around in the rain. No joke.
No it cleared up that game during the tailgate...this threat is longer and could be heavier..or we could luck out..stay tuned
Well, NWS-Philly calling for 0.1-0.25" of rain from 2-8 pm (prime tailgating time), while NWS-NYC is only calling for about 0.05" of rain for the same timeframe for neighboring Staten Island and Union County. Haven't had time to dive into any details/models, but almost don't have to - I'm sure they're looking at the same data and interpreting that data differently.
Classic case of: "we need to wait until tomorrow morning's forecast." And it might even be a nowcasting event where we just need to see how the day evolves. Keep in mind, to meteorologists they almost don't care about the difference between 0.05" and 0.20", for example - both are light rain - but it's a substantial difference for an outdoor activity. Stay tuned.
To answer the question above, 2 years ago the PSU game had about 0.25" of rain during about a 3-hour period before the game and it was chilly and kind of miserable. For UM, it was <0.1" of rain and it was not miserable - just gloomy.
Classic case of: "we need to wait until tomorrow morning's forecast." And it might even be a nowcasting event where we just need to see how the day evolves. Keep in mind, to meteorologists they almost don't care about the difference between 0.05" and 0.20", for example - both are light rain - but it's a substantial difference for an outdoor activity. Stay tuned.
To answer the question above, 2 years ago the PSU game had about 0.25" of rain during about a 3-hour period before the game and it was chilly and kind of miserable. For UM, it was <0.1" of rain and it was not miserable - just gloomy.
As I said a couple of days ago, we should consider ourselves lucky Matthew didn't come up here and deluge us...
The only rain for 7 days on either side of the game is projected starting at 2 and going until 10. It's uncanny.
waaahhh! theres a 45% chance of rain from 2pm to 4 pm..then it goes down to 20% AFTER 4PM and 5% at gametime..
some of you need cheese to go with your WHINE!
Go to weather underground,plug in New Brunswick,use the hourly forecast..
some of you need cheese to go with your WHINE!
Go to weather underground,plug in New Brunswick,use the hourly forecast..
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:08901.1.99999While I agree it doesn't look too bad, where are you getting those numbers?
here is the deal...there is a front coming in...some showers are associated with it..thats not all a big deal but any rain is unwanted so it will effect tailgating. Less of a chance of rain during the game but still a chance. The key is if any of Matthews moisture gets tapped into, if it does and its no certainty it will, then we get some steadier heavier showers that f with the tailgates. If not, then we probably skate by with some light rain for a while but generally not all that bad
bottom line is that there is no certainty in this forecast so plan ahead and bring all the rain gear just in case. Nowcasting and radar watching tomorrow morning is going to tell the tale.
bottom line is that there is no certainty in this forecast so plan ahead and bring all the rain gear just in case. Nowcasting and radar watching tomorrow morning is going to tell the tale.
It wasn't rain for the tailgate if you tailgated Friday night ( a few of our crew-1st tailgaters ever for a B1G game or 9AM Saturday morning! Vaguely I remember something like
~ 9AM-11AM- Dry
11AM-4PM showers (nuisance as we had canopies)
~5PM-Gametime- Dry
fyi - I was talking about the forecast - all week long - for the Michigan game. I could swear we were supposed to have "annoying" rain showers, not the weather itself. Everyone had their canopies set up early. I remember well as that was the tailgate the cops rammed into, and destroyed a pretty nice grill at the setup across from us, being over-rambunctious with their 4-wheelers. ,
I remember that. They were laughing about it too. Complete waste of taxpayer money.
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