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BACATOLOGY: 3/11 NCAA Tournament Analysis***Rutgers 95% in***

This is exercise was another reason I thought we’d be out of the field of 64 and in Dayton. Unfortunately it went the other way.

Think a lot of people underestimated least year RU in was the exception not the new precedent.

Clean resumes matter and Q3 losses are usually worse than non-high Q1 wins.
and now we know for a fact net rankings mean shit..also look at Pitts horrible metrics...way worse than ru and probably worse inclusion than nc state
 
Bac is still good at this . But he had us about 6 spots away then what the committee did . It was a bad fail , but I am not ready to write bac off . It’s good stuff he provides . He gets a shot next year at redemption
well you had us in Dayton, where are the posters who didnt have us in beside the usual troll
 
He would not listen to repeated warning from talking heads last year that Big Ten getting too many bids based on recent Tournament performance. Roasted others who brought it up, mostly me. With the end result we have now, he should own up that his take on RU's chances was a serious fail. And he shouldn't trash other posters' correct takes.
 
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The thing is he had us in the field of 60. And we were team 70. It happens and predictions are hard

We weren’t team 70.
We were the 50th(?) best team for a 68 team tournament.

A case could be made that so many AQ did us in.
But that’s a different conversation.
 
He would not listen to repeated warning from talking heads last year that Big Ten getting too many bids based on recent Tournament performance. Roasted others who brought it up, mostly me. With the end result we have now, he should own up that his take on RU's chances was a serious fail. And he shouldn't trash other posters' correct takes.
This makes no sense when the conference that benefitted is the ****ing Mountain West.

Wyoming got blown out by Indiana in the First Four
6 seed Colorado State lost to 11 seed Michigan
8 seed San Diego State lost to 9 seed Creighton
8 seed Boise State lost to 9 seed Memphis

Four MWC teams made it and faced high majors. They all lost. I'm way more okay with the ACC getting bids than the MWC.

Oh but that's just one year you say?

2021...
6 seed San Diego State lost to 11 seed Syracuse
11 seed Utah State lost to 6 seed Texas Tech

2019...
7 seed Nevada lost to 10 seed Florida
8 seed Utah State lost to 9 seed Washington

The entire ****ing conference hasn't won a game in the NCAA tournament since 2018. Give me a break.
 
ONE SEEDS
  • KANSAS*
  • ALABAMA*
  • HOUSTON*
  • PURDUE*

TWO SEEDS
  • UCLA*
  • TEXAS
  • BAYLOR
  • ARIZONA

THREE SEEDS
  • GONZAGA*
  • MARQUETTE*
  • KANSAS STATE
  • CONNECTICUT

FOUR SEEDS
  • TENNESSEE
  • XAVIER
  • INDIANA
  • VIRGINIA*

FIVE SEEDS
  • SAN DIEGO STATE*
  • IOWA STATE
  • DUKE
  • TCU

SIX SEEDS
  • MIAMI
  • TEXAS A & M
  • SAINT MARY'S
  • MISSOURI

7 SEEDS
  • KENTUCKY
  • NORTHWESTERN
  • CREIGHTON
  • MICHIGAN STATE

8 SEEDS
  • FLORIDA ATLANTIC*
  • IOWA
  • ARKANSAS
  • MARYLAND

9 SEEDS
  • ILLINOIS
  • MEMPHIS
  • WEST VIRGINIA
  • PENN STATE

10 SEEDS
  • USC
  • AUBURN
  • BOISE STATE
  • RUTGERS

11 SEEDS
  • UTAH STATE
  • MISSISSIPPI STATE
  • PROVIDENCE
  • ARIZONA STATE
  • PITTSBURGH
  • NORTH CAROLINA STATE

TWELVE SEEDS
  • (42) ORAL ROBERTS*
  • CHARLESTON*
  • VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH*
  • DRAKE*

THIRTEEN SEEDS
  • IONA*
  • TOLEDO*
  • YALE*
  • LOUISIANA*

FOURTEEN SEEDS
  • FURMAN*
  • SOUTHERN UTAH*
  • CAL-SANTA BARBARA
  • KENNESAW STATE*

FIFTEEN SEEDS
  • COLGATE*
  • MONTANA STATE*
  • VERMONT*
  • UNC ASHEVILLE*

SIXTEEN SEEDS
  • NORTHERN KENTUCKY*
  • GRAMBLING STATE*
  • TEXAS A & M CORPUS CHRISTI*
  • SOUTHESAST MISSOURI STATE*
  • HOWARD*
  • FDU*

LAST 4 BYES: MISSISSIPPI STATE, UTAH STATE, RUTGERS, BOISE STATE
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA STATE, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: NEVADA, VANDERBILT, OKLAHOMA STATE, CLEMSON
NEXT 6 OUT: WISCONSIN, NEW MEXICO, OREGON, NORTH CAROLINA, MICHIGAN, NORTH TEXAS




This is just how I see things today on 3/11 and 12:30 PM. The entire field and seeds will be scrubbed and alot of numbers crunching overnight and tomorrow morning that could change things

With Rutgers, I believe Rutgers is 90% locked in the field. I think its 60/40 that we avoid Dayton. Rutgers has a shot at 10 here but its tenuous for sure. Do not necessarily expect that. 11 might be more correct. Rutgers fans should sweat less than last year. Right now 101 of 105 brackets on the Matrix have RU in the field, although right now in Dayton. The big thing for me is 7 wins vs schools in the field and the high end over a projected one seed is glorious.

I feel North Carolina State has the weakest profile of any of the teams in the field and could easily be passed up for ANY of my projected first 4 out. I do not think any of the next 6 out can get into the field.

Vanderbilt is coming with a rush. I made a post last night that i need to apologize for. I said that they needed to win the SEC tourney to get in. That was just wrong and reactionary and I should have known better. If Vandy wins today I will put them in the field. If they do not they still have a shot to get in but probably less than 50/50. They are 10-10 in Q1/2. 7 wins vs schools in the field including 2 high level Q1 wins over Tennessee and at Arkansas. The other 5 wins are Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Auburn and last 2 in Pitt. It is interesting their Q4 loss was to Grambling State who is the projected AQ from the SWAC and could actually move into Q3 today. 2 Q3 loss,, the Southern Miss one not all that bad and truly the only bad one was LSU which is their only loss in their last 11 games. SOS is a fine 22. Remember a late run by Texas A&M in this same SEC tourney was rejected in favor of a flimsy resume from Notre Dame. So let us test that.

Utah State is getting in because the metrics are great. 18 in the NET in the 5th rated conference. Yes only two wins in Q1 and in field vs Boise 2-4. But Q2 is 9-1 giving them 11-5 in Q1/2. Q3 they have a whopping 13 wins and the 24-5 mark in Q1/2/3 is why their NET is 18. Now they have 2 Q4 losses and their fans in bracketology seem to be ignoring them. I do not say I like having them in and in general think the Mountain West is overrated. Beating San Diego State probably moves them to the 9 line. Whether a full scrub can put them over RU or into the first four is yet to be determined.

Pittsburgh's saving grace might be a win over Northwestern and knocking off North Carolina State in their only meeting but as said above they also lost to Vanderbilt
Why were you (and 90% of the brackets) so wrong?
 
The “too many teams from a conference” sounds like the dumb “too many SEC teams in CFP” arguments.

Just pick the best teams. If that means 3 SEC teams in CFP? 10 or even 11 Big Ten teams in March madness?
So be it. Enough with this “inclusivity”. Sport is supposed to be about merit.
 
Bac was hedging all along re RU. You could read it through his posts. ''Need to take it out of committees hands" I think he said several games ago.
Pike inserts Simpson earlier in season & we r not sitting here pissed today.
 
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Bac was hedging all along re RU. You could read it through his posts. ''Need to take it out of committees hands" I think he said several games ago.
Pike inserts Simpson earlier in season & we r not sitting here pissed today.
Well his hedge should have said RU was closer to 50% then. Not 95%. Horrendously poor prediction.I certainly will never give his picks much credence going forward.
 
Wow, the people giving bac crap in this thread are way off base, but it's kind of predictable. He has a great track record over many years and does all this work out of love for Rutgers basketball and shares it all generously with this community. He was not alone in thinking RU was almost a lock - so did 96% of bracketologists and most of the people on this board. It's impossible to get every prediction right and, of course it's going to sting more when the team screwed over (and we were) is our team. Thanks, bac.
 
This makes no sense when the conference that benefitted is the ****ing Mountain West.

Wyoming got blown out by Indiana in the First Four
6 seed Colorado State lost to 11 seed Michigan
8 seed San Diego State lost to 9 seed Creighton
8 seed Boise State lost to 9 seed Memphis

Four MWC teams made it and faced high majors. They all lost. I'm way more okay with the ACC getting bids than the MWC.

Oh but that's just one year you say?

2021...
6 seed San Diego State lost to 11 seed Syracuse
11 seed Utah State lost to 6 seed Texas Tech

2019...
7 seed Nevada lost to 10 seed Florida
8 seed Utah State lost to 9 seed Washington

The entire ****ing conference hasn't won a game in the NCAA tournament since 2018. Give me a break.
wash rinse repeat, the bracket guys are in loves with their metrics in Q2 and 3...every single year.
 
Bac was hedging all along re RU. You could read it through his posts. ''Need to take it out of committees hands" I think he said several games ago.
Pike inserts Simpson earlier in season & we r not sitting here pissed today.


I didnt like the lock posts from after Michigan but I understand why people made, them..things look good, after that superlative effort down to the wire vs a 1 seed, I felt great about going and with EVERYTHING working out with bid stealers I really felt confident. If the committee was watching RU proved they were a tourney team...unfortunately the committee stopped watching last Sunday

but yeah you never want to leave something out there for the committee to justify a reason to leave you out. This year we got burned
 
Wow, the people giving bac crap in this thread are way off base, but it's kind of predictable. He has a great track record over many years and does all this work out of love for Rutgers basketball and shares it all generously with this community. He was not alone in thinking RU was almost a lock - so did 96% of bracketologists and most of the people on this board. It's impossible to get every prediction right and, of course it's going to sting more when the team screwed over (and we were) is our team. Thanks, bac.
Nonsense. He made a horrific call, essentially as bad as could be, made fun of others who disagreed with what turned out to be his trash calls, and now won't even acknowledge his terrible performance. He is as bad a prognosticator as Brad "Click Bait" Dollars Wachtel.
 
Nonsense. He made a horrific call, essentially as bad as could be, made fun of others who disagreed with what turned out to be his trash calls, and now won't even acknowledge his terrible performance. He is as bad a prognosticator as Brad "Click Bait" Dollars Wachtel.
We were on 78/83 final brackets on bracket matrix. Is your position that all of these guys are bad at it?
 
Nonsense. He made a horrific call, essentially as bad as could be, made fun of others who disagreed with what turned out to be his trash calls, and now won't even acknowledge his terrible performance. He is as bad a prognosticator as Brad "Click Bait" Dollars Wachtel.
Holy fck dude🤣. You’re mad over a bracketology thread? Get a life you clown🤡
 
Bac told me I was throwing away money buying lottery tickets and I would almost definitely never win but I just hit the Powerball for $300 million. He's such an idiot, you guys.
 
Giving bac shit for this would be a lot more justified IMO if he wasn't aligned with virtually every other bracketologist.
I'm PISSED at him. And the other 94.999999999999 % Pissed at myself and pissed at the team, the committee,, the coach, the world (but the dog is safe). But it's not his fault.
I'm gonna need TWO CBD gummies to sleep tonight.

I too want to say THANK YOU to @bac2therac for the TON of work he put into this.
 
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Bracketology is a waste of time. It’s literally impossible to get less than 64 out of 68 teams correct.
I agree. It's commonsense and luck. In this case, Rutgers was sacrificial lamb for Committee to start enforcing seed limits. Rutgers gave them reasons, and they took them. Not to say I'm not angry. OSU steal cost us bid. And their abysmal 1 minute meltdown in Minnesota.
 
The majority of human activity is a waste of time. If you aren't eating, sleeping, or ****ing, what are you even doing?
Spend hundreds of hours pouring over the data or just look at lunardis project cause they’re almost identical. Easy decision to me.
 
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