BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Didn't they lose to Pitt? Or is that a Quad 4 loss now. I think it was borderline 3/4
Tougher schedule? OOC of course but overall? Don’t think that’s possible because the ACC blows donkey dick.
UNC has played 4 games against teams that are currently ranked and lost them all by a combined 75 points.
We played 7 games against teams that are currently ranked and went 5-2.
UNC played 5 other games against teams with a chance to make the tourney (NONE are locks) and went 2-3…convincing wins over Michigan and UVA, a close loss to ND, and blowout losses to Wake and Miami.
We played 3 other games against teams with a chance to make the tourney (2 are locks) and came away with convincing wins over Michigan and MSU and a big loss to SHU.
So 10 games for us against real competition, we’re 7-3. 9 games for UNC against real competition, they’re 2-7.
If they went undefeated against the cupcakes maybe that could make up for it, but they didn’t. They lost, at home, to Pitt and it wasn’t particularly close.
I agree they will probably get in.
However - I kind of see it as their conference is only a little better than a mid-major this year. While you know I’m not a a fan of style points or using MOV generally as an evaluation metric (quant) - UNC didn’t just lose their Q1 games - they were take to the shed in 5 of 7 of them - not competitive at all. (And they were down 13 to Purdue too with 30 seconds left then hit a couple shots to make it a 9 point margin). Only ND was a close loss and they are a fringe bubble team.
Remember we were talking about that Nebraska team that got left out? UNC’s resume reminds me of theirs.
it means 16 of their wins are to crap out of 21....embarrassing for their conference
UNC played Kentucky Purdue and Tennessee. they'd be 23-5 if they replaced those games with 3 of our cupcakes.
i dont think you realize that there is Duke maybe Notre Dame and Miami who are equal to Michigan and Indiana and then no one else, Now compare to Big 10 and remember Purdue is better than Duke. Big 10 has 4 schools in the top 5 seed line, ACC wont get their 2nd until maybe the 9 seed line.
ACC is garbage, you think its the 90s
UNC has had 1 home opportunity vs Q1 we have had 5.
Is UNC losing to...
at NW
at PSU
at MIN
MD
at UMASS
at Depaul
Their resume says no
I realize that ACC has 16 teams B1G has 14. Yes B1G is better top to bottom, BUT it isn't like the ACC is filled with UMASSes
Their overall strength of schedule is better than ours and their record is much better than ours. If you have 6 Q1 wins but you lose to NW, PSU, MIN MD MASS DePaul you are still 6-6 in those games.
Not sure why you think their overall SOS is better than ours. NET, barttorvik, kenpom, and sagarin all have our SOS as stronger than UNC.... only RPI has it flipped.
I'm trying to understand what Greene is trying to argue for.....is he actually saying UNC is better than RU or would be better playing RUs schedule??
How about you pull up the metrics and tell us which ACC team comes to the RAC and wins, outside of Duke??.
The ACC venues are nowhere nearly as difficult to play in. Outside of Duke and maybe UVA (which Iowa beat by the way on UVAs home court) and Florida State who has their entire starting lineup out....RU would be 2nd in ACC and probably splits with Duke home and home.
How about you pull up the metrics and tell us which ACC team comes to the RAC and wins, outside of Duke??.
The ACC venues are nowhere nearly as difficult to play in. Outside of Duke and maybe UVA (which Iowa beat by the way on UVAs home court) and Florida State who has their entire starting lineup out....RU would be 2nd in ACC and probably splits with Duke home and home.
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Keep in mind UVA and Miami both won at Duke this year....the ACC is not good this year.
Is UNC talented and loaded with 4* or 5* kids?? Sure, but they have a 1st time HC and play literally matador defense most nights.
Is UNC talented and loaded with 4* or 5* kids?? Sure, but they have a 1st time HC and play literally matador defense most nights.
Whether RU is better than UNC isnt really irrelevant. WHen you compare our total resume and their total resume UNC's is better.....their schedule was tougher and they had a better WL%.
I never made any argument saying UNC is better than Rutgers. Based solely on resumes one could/should conclude RU would not have had a better record than UNC playing UNC's schedule AND UNC would have a better record than RU playing their schedule.
Not sure what I looked at - maybe I had the year wrong?
Either way, I dispute the argument that their SOS is tougher.... they certainly haven't faced nearly the number of top teams as Rutgers has, but the bottom end of their schedule wasn't as low as ours either.
RU has played 8 games in the NET Top 30 (going 6-2), while UNC has played 4 (going 0-4). Not sure why you think that's a tougher road.
Also, UNC's remaining schedule has (@9 Duke, 86 Cuse, @133 NC State) while Rutgers has (@34 Michigan, 20 Wisconsin, @44 Indiana, 84 Penn St)
If we beat Michigan tomorrow, Duke may be UNC's only shot at beating a team that's tournament-bound.
If we beat Michigan tomorrow, Duke may be UNC's only shot at beating a team that's tournament-bound.
I think it is safe to say no resume EVER in the NCAA tournament has ever looked like Rutgers.
they may have a negative correlation between strength of opponent and result. Not sure how you evaluate that.
how can you ignore Rutgers inability to beat average teams
they may have a negative correlation between strength of opponent and result. Not sure how you evaluate that.
how can you ignore Rutgers inability to beat average teams
They would lose to 2
Are yhwy winning at Wisc..no
Winning for Ill..osu..msu..iowa..purdue..no
So give the. 7 more losses..worse than thought 12-14
Look at their resume. They are beating those type of teams. They have 1 non Q1 loss
The Nitty Gritty Report for 2015-2016 NCAA Men's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com
The Nitty Gritty Report for 2015-2016 NCAA Mens College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams
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Good job
Q1 and Q2 record. 10-6
Q3 and Q4 record. 10-6
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Good job
Q1 and Q2 record. 10-6
Q3 and Q4 record. 10-6
Not surecwhat they did in tourney so lop that off..also it wasnt quads..it was rpi..top 50..top 100 top 200
But they don’t lose 50% of their games against UMASS types. That means something
you do realize there is a little conflict in the RU scheduling argument you make. UNC has a very good OOC SOS. Again they are 23-5 right now if they went RU SOS route.
So they would be like Wakecwho is barely in
Unc would have zero wins vs field and still be on the bubble
