BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21

[Greene Rice FIG]

Boise State. How can Boise State have a better resume than UNC?

the committee should be smart enough to not fall for Boise States Q1 bucket

 

[bac2therac]

These conferences are scheduling other high mid majors..wcc mwc a10 in collusion

The nets are all inflated

Fresno St is notva good win..neither is Utah St

Wyoming would be 12-14 in the big 10

 

[bac2therac]

The problem is the committee is made up of many small conference bozos

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It is smart and should be rewarded I suppose

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

One can make an argument when looking at resumes…..
RU > UNC
UNC > BSU
BSU > RU

 

[bac2therac]

Give me BSUs best wins.....ill wait

 

[bac2therac]

The problem is the committee is made up of many small conference bozos

It looks like an even split..6 from power 6..6 from smaller but when i see members like the A10 commish and AD from a MVC school i know where this is going

Why is an old white man from the Southland Conference the chair

 

[Scangg]

The problem is the committee is made up of many small conference bozos

What is the breakdown of the committee based on P5/6 vs mid majors ?

 

[RU23]

Rooting for MSU, they’re not looking good but it’s early.

I was thinking….are….are we sure MSU is in?

If they lose tonight, their last 4 are Purdue, @Mich, @OSU, and UMD.

They can EASILY finish 19-12 and would probably need a B1G Tournament win to be safe, right?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

UNC		RU
3​		10​
10​		10​
11​		14​
12​		14​
34​		18​
40​		19​
41​		20​
41​		29​
57​		34​
67​		36​
82​		77​
85​		84​
95​		93​
107​		93​
124​		95​
124​		100​
133​		112​
151​		181​
151​		188​
158​		188​
158​		300​
160​		307​
167​		311​
169​		313​
211​		340​
224​		353​
254​
282​

opponents NETs sorted

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Give me BSUs best wins.....ill wait

RU is 3-8 away from the RAC
Boise state is 10-3

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Who you beat is very important, but who didn't you beat should have some importance PLUS who did you schedule? How did you do away from your home court?

win in Wisconsin was humongous for our resume

 

[bac2therac]

Rooting for MSU, they’re not looking good but it’s early.

I was thinking….are….are we sure MSU is in?

If they lose tonight, their last 4 are Purdue, @Mich, @OSU, and UMD.

They can EASILY finish 19-12 and would probably need a B1G Tournament win to be safe, right?

they are in as long at they beat Maryland in the last game

 

[bac2therac]

Who you beat is very important, but who didn't you beat should have some importance PLUS who did you schedule? How did you do away from your home court?

win in Wisconsin was humongous for our resume

yes and actually a win at Michigan will be better than a home win over Wisconsin...

 

[bac2therac]

RU is 3-8 away from the RAC
Boise state is 10-3

lol

 

[Scangg]

they are in as long at they beat Maryland in the last game

That could be a lot of pressure bc at that point they will have lost 6 games in a row or so and give Maryland something to play for in a spoiler role

 

[bac2therac]

MSU has not looked good recently

Can MSU lose out and still make it?

Purdue
@ Michigan
@ OSU
Maryland

18-12... they could go into that last home game with Maryland needing a win?

they still have not lost to anyone outside Q2 I think

UNC		RU
3​		10​
10​		10​
11​		14​
12​		14​
34​		18​
40​		19​
41​		20​
41​		29​
57​		34​
67​		36​
82​		77​
85​		84​
95​		93​
107​		93​
124​		95​
124​		100​
133​		112​
151​		181​
151​		188​
158​		188​
158​		300​
160​		307​
167​		311​
169​		313​
211​		340​
224​		353​
254​
282​

opponents NETs sorted

Va Tech is trash

 

[kcg88]

Iowa looking to become an ironclad lock.

 

[goru7]

UNC		RU
3​		10​
10​		10​
11​		14​
12​		14​
34​		18​
40​		19​
41​		20​
41​		29​
57​		34​
67​		36​
82​		77​
85​		84​
95​		93​
107​		93​
124​		95​
124​		100​
133​		112​
151​		181​
151​		188​
158​		188​
158​		300​
160​		307​
167​		311​
169​		313​
211​		340​
224​		353​
254​
282​

opponents NETs sorted

UNC this year has basically sucked the whole year. My son is a UNC grad and was there for their last championship, He says they suck. Any team with a pulse has absolutely buried them as they have lost by 20 or more and been down by 30 in those games at least 5 times. They were blown out at home by decent but not great team in Duke on a rivalry game normally decided by a basket or 2. Their guards are inconsistent at best and maybe have shot well in 1- 2 games. They lost 2 of their better players after the first 5-10 games , Garcia the Marquette transfer and have not clicked. If you like mediocrity you like UNC . But we are 5-2 against ranked teams that were top 16 at the time and they are 0 fee and were 0-7 in Quad 1 before the Va . Tech win. Sometimes you have to put your metrics in the toilet and use your common sense. If UNC played Purdue 2x , Illinois 2x, Wisconsin , Ohio State , Michigan State and Iowa they might be 1-7 and we are 6-2. Case closed. Good teams beat other good teams. UNC is a total fail this year

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Why should we get credit for a Q1 win at home for beating a team that is 1-5 in Q1?

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Maybe someone can find a correlations or patterns with the Strength of Records(SOR) and NET rankings.

Q3/2/1, Q2/1, Q1, Avg NET win, Avg NET Loss, NET Rank#

1) Kans(22-4) 19-4, 15-4, 10-3, NWin 82, NL 20, #5
2) Aub(24-3) 20-3, 13-3, 7-3, NWin 111, NL 30, #9
3) Ariz(24-2) 16-2, 11-2, 5-2, NWin 138, NL 12, #2
4) Pur(24-4) 17-4, 11-4, 7-3, NWin 116, NL 44, #10
5) Bay(23-5) 17-5, 15-5, 10-4, NWin 120, NL 19, #6
6) KY(22-5) 14-5, 10-5, 6-5, NWin 137 NL 12, #3
7) Wisc(21-5) 17-5, 13-4, 7-4, NWin 98, NL 34, #20
8) Prov(22-3) 16-3, 12-3, 5-2, NWin 124, NL 40, #28
9) TTU(21-6) 12-6, 12-6, 7-5, NWin 143, NL 29, #8
10) Duke(23-4) 17-4, 9-3, 5-1, NWin 135, NL 69, #12
11) Nova(21-6) 16-6, 12-6, 7-5, NWin 110, NL 26, #7
12) Zags(23-2) 10-2, 9-2, 7-2, NWin 173, NL 17, #1
13) Tenn(19-7) 14-7, 10-7, 5-7, NWin 115, NL 13, #11
14) UCLA(20-5) 14-5, 8-5, 3-3, NWin 126, NL 42, #13
15) Illinois(19-7) 15-7, 10-7, 5-4, NWin 112, NL 45, #14
16) HOU(22-4) 14-4, 6-4, 0-3, NWin 149, NL 33, #4
17) USC(23-4) 17-4, 8-3, 3-1, NWin 149, NL 68, #24
18) tOSU(17-7) 14-7, 8-7, 4-6, NWin 113, NL 35, #18
19) Texas(19-8) 10-8, 9-8, 5-7, NWin 158, NL 26, #15
20) Bama(17-10) 17-10, 12-8, 7-7, NWin 68, NL 59, #22
21) MurSt(23-2) 9-2, 4-1, 2-1, NWin 222 NL 93, #26
22) LSU(19-8) 14-8, 9-7, 5-5, NWin 127, NL 50, #16
23) Ark(21-6) 15-6, 9-5, 3-4, NWin 134, NL 60, #23
24) MSU(18-8) 14-8, 9-7, 3-5, NWin 121, NL 38, #29
25) UConn(19-7) 12-7, 11-7, 4-6, NWin 144, NL 37, #17
26) IowaSt(18-9) 10-9, 9-9, 8-7, NWin 156, NL 30, #35
27) UNC(20-8) 16-7, 5-7, 1-7, NWin 139, NL 46, #42
28) Davidson(21-4) 13-4, 5-4, 2-1, NWin 180, NL 73, #49
29) ND(18-8) 14-8, 6-7, 2-6, NWin 155, NL 50, #57
30) WakeF(21-7) 13-7, 6-7, 1-4, NWin 167, NL 55, #40
31) CSU(20-4) 13-4, 9-3, 3-2, NWin 151, NL 63, #31
32) Marq(17-10) 12-10, 9-10, 7-7, NWin 119, NL 45, #32
33) St Mary(21-6) 12-6, 8-6, 3-6, NWin 150, NL 36, #21
34) TCU(19-8) 11-8, 8-8, 4-5, NWin 151, NL 32, #53
35) Wyom(21-4) 12-4, 8-2, 3-2, NWin 174, NL 73, #38
36) Iowa(18-8) 10-8, 6-8, 1-5, NWin 163, NL 36, #19
37) N.Tx(18-4) 9-4, 6-3, 1-1, NWin 174, NL 58, #39
38) MiaFL(19-8) 15-8, 9-5, 4-1, NWin 132, NL 75, #67
39) SHU(15-9) 13-9, 7-9, 5-6, NWin 121, NL 35, #36
40) Xav(17-9) 13-9, 9-8, 5-7, NWin 115, NL 38, #25
41) Iona(22-5) 12-5, 2-3, 1-2, NWin 184, NL 112, #70
42) VCU(18-7) 12-7, 6-6, 2-2, NWin 146, NL 57, #58
43) Creight(18-8) 12-8, 7-7, 3-5, NWin 141, NL 51, #62
44) Mich(14-11) 10-11, 6-10, 3-7, NWin 114, NL 40, #34
45) SMU(19-6) 12-5, 5-4, 2-1, NWin 156, NL 117, #46
46) LoyIll(20-6) 12-6, 4-5, 2-2, NWin 180, NL 63, #37
47) BoiseSt(20-6) 14-5, 9-5, 4-1, NWin 136, NL 102, #30
48) Belmont(23-5) 8-5, 4-5, 1-2, NWin 230, NL 62, #56
49) NMSt(20-4) 12-4, 5-2, 2-0, NWin 172 NL 125, #76
50) Rutgers(16-10) 10-9, 8-7, 6-3, NWin 145, NL 101, #80
51) Fla(17-10) 10-9, 5-9, 2-7, NWin 149, NL 58, #50
52) SCar(15-10) 10-10, 5-8, 2-6, NWin 145, NL 52, #94
53) SanFran(21-7) 12-6, 8-5, 3-4, NWin 162, NL 60, #27
54) Ohio(21-5) 5-5, 2-4, 0-2, NWin 250, NL 65, #97
55) SDiegoSt(17-6) 11-6, 5-6, 2-6, NWin 145, NL 40, #33
56)Indiana(16-10) 8-10, 5-10, 2-6, NWin 165, NL 40, #43
*57) SoDakSt(23-4) 10-3, 2-2, 1-2, NWin 222, NL 135, #68*
58) StBona(17-7) 7-7, 6-6, 3-3, NWin 165, NL 66, #83
59) KanSt(14-12) 8-12, 7-12, 4-9, NWin 174, NL 36, #60
60) BYU(17-9) 10-8, 7-8, 3-5, NWin 145, NL 74, #55
61) Virginia(17-10) 11-10, 7-7, 3-5, NWin 155, NL 78, #81

#41 VA Tech(16-11) SOR 77, #44 Memphis(15-9) SOR 62
#45 Oklahoma(14-13) SOR 66, #47 MissSt(16-11) SOR 68
#48 WashSt(14-12) SOR 120, #51 UAB(18-7) SOR 88
#52 Dayton(19-8) SOR 64, #59 St Louis(17-9) SOR 78
Oregon 75, UCF 71

52nd and 54th best resume are NET #94 and #97?
NET needs changes again.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

UNC this year has basically sucked the whole year. My son is a UNC grad and was there for their last championship, He says they suck. Any team with a pulse has absolutely buried them as they have lost by 20 or more and been down by 30 in those games at least 5 times. They were blown out at home by decent but not great team in Duke on a rivalry game normally decided by a basket or 2. Their guards are inconsistent at best and maybe have shot well in 1- 2 games. They lost 2 of their better players after the first 5-10 games , Garcia the Marquette transfer and have not clicked. If you like mediocrity you like UNC . But we are 5-2 against ranked teams that were top 16 at the time and they are 0 fee and were 0-7 in Quad 1 before the Va . Tech win. Sometimes you have to put your metrics in the toilet and use your common sense. If UNC played Purdue 2x , Illinois 2x, Wisconsin , Ohio State , Michigan State and Iowa they might be 1-7 and we are 6-2. Case closed. Good teams beat other good teams. UNC is a total fail this year

So they would be 1-7 and we would be 6-2. I'll give that to you. How would UNC do in the other 18 games?

They are 19-1 in Q2,Q3,Q4. You basically made my point. UNC finishes 18-8 with our schedule.

 

[goru7]

Why should we get credit for a Q1 win at home for beating a team that is 1-5 in Q1?

Ok. Because we held them to 40 points below their average and it was done before the last 11 halves where we figured things our offensive attack and efficiency. But while you are at it , recite the other teams Quad 1 wins , Purdue , Illinois , Wisconsin , Ohio State , and not cherry pick Iowa , which was one of the greatest defensive efforts in college basketball this year . I await your response with your data

 

[goru7]

So they would be 1-7 and we would be 6-2. I'll give that to you. How would UNC do in the other 18 games?

Well. So they are good at beating other mediocre teams like them. So what ? How will that team have an effect on the NCAA TOURNEY ? Absolutely none.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Ok. Because we held them to 40 points below their average and it was done before the last 11 halves where we figured things our offensive attack and efficiency. But while you are at it , recite the other teams Quad 1 wins , Purdue , Illinois , Wisconsin , Ohio State , and not cherry pick Iowa , which was one of the greatest defensive efforts in college basketball this year . I await your response with your data

That is so illogical. A team should be considered a Q1 win because we held them 40 points under their average?

 

[bac2therac]

Iowa looking to become an ironclad lock.

and a Q1 win will be leaving us soon

 

[bac2therac]

Florida hanging in with Arkansas at half down only 37-34

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Well. So they are good at beating other mediocre teams like them. So what ? How will that team have an effect on the NCAA TOURNEY ? Absolutely none.

UNC's chance of winning the NCAA tournament today if they get in 5000 to 1
RU's chance of winning the NCAA tournament if they get in today 150 to 1
(these are just guesses)

That doesn't mean UNC doesn't deserve to be in the tournament over Rutgers in my opinion. I just feel you can't have a 16-10 record with the schedule we had OVER UNC at 20-8 and the schedule they had.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

and a Q1 win will be leaving us soon

do NOT give up on Iowa............choking

Let's be brutally honest.....brutally honest Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State and Michigan right now are just OK teams.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

UNC has had 1 home opportunity vs Q1 we have had 5.

Is UNC losing to...
at NW
at PSU
at MIN
MD
at UMASS
at Depaul

Their resume says no

It flips the other way too though you know:

UNC had 4 opportunities to beat top 4 seed type teams either at home or on a neutral floor. They went 0-4 in those games. Is Rutgers going 0-4 in those games? Their resume says no way.

See what I mean?

 

[Scangg]

do NOT give up on Iowa............choking

Let's be brutally honest.....brutally honest Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State and Michigan right now are just OK teams.

Iowa is trending up. MSU and Indiana are not. Michigan and Indiana are both worse than us

 

[Scangg]

do NOT give up on Iowa............choking

Let's be brutally honest.....brutally honest Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State and Michigan right now are just OK teams.

Izzo motivated the team at halftime in a very FIG approved manner I'm sure

 

[bac2therac]

do NOT give up on Iowa............choking

Let's be brutally honest.....brutally honest Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State and Michigan right now are just OK teams.

they are clearly not in the top 5...I see a top 3 and then OSU/RU a cut below then those other 4.

 

[goru7]

That is so illogical. A team should be considered a Q1 win because we held them 40 points under their average?

No follow along. They have been a top 20-25 team in the NET all year , already considered an NCAA lock and the # 5 on Kenpom in offensive efficiency . You held the # 5 team in the country below every officiency metric they have shown in all their other games . I could give a shit that they are Quad 1 , but I can realize how incredible a feat it was holding them to 46 points and The 4th leading scorer in the country to 13 points. That should wow you out of your seat.

do NOT give up on Iowa............choking

Let's be brutally honest.....brutally honest Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State and Michigan right now are just OK teams.

I don’t necessarily disagree with you on those 4 teams but we have not played Indiana yet and I did not include Michigan so we talking Iowa and Michigan State. Michigan state had won 5 in a row and had just went into Wisconsin and beat them by 8-10 when they met up with us and I would suggest our 21 point beat down affected them mentally and they haven’t recovered. Iowa as I already discussed was a legendary defensive effort that occurred before the last 11 halves and before we are the team we are today as offensive efficient as any team in the country. Makes it even more impressive. If you haven’t noticed Iowa is playing much better basketball on the defensive end since our game.

 

[Scangg]

they are clearly not in the top 5...I see a top 3 and then OSU/RU a cut below then those other 4.

Same

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It flips the other way too though you know:

UNC had 4 opportunities to beat top 4 seed type teams either at home or on a neutral floor. They went 0-4 in those games. Is Rutgers going 0-4 in those games? Their resume says no way.

See what I mean?

I agree 100%, but we are talking about 4 games....not the 6 softer games we lost PLUS the Lafayette.

Our average NET loss is 101.....

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The feat means nothing to the argument a team that is 1-5 vs Q1 teams shouldnt be counted as a Q1 at home for a team

 

[RUChoppin]

UNC		RU
3​		10​
10​		10​
11​		14​
12​		14​
34​		18​
40​		19​
41​		20​
41​		29​
57​		34​
67​		36​
82​		77​
85​		84​
95​		93​
107​		93​
124​		95​
124​		100​
133​		112​
151​		181​
151​		188​
158​		188​
158​		300​
160​		307​
167​		311​
169​		313​
211​		340​
224​		353​
254​
282​

opponents NETs sorted

Adding in the complete schedules through the end of the regular season:

UNC	RU
3	10
9	10
10	14
11	14
12	18
34	19
40	20
41	20
41	29
57	34
67	34
82	36
85	44
86	77
95	84
107	84
124	93
124	93
133	95
133	100
151	112
151	181
158	188
158	188
160	300
167	307
169	311
211	313​
224	340​
254	353​
282

Top 21 teams on each schedule, RU is way ahead.... bottom 9-10 teams, UNC is way head.

 

[fatsam98]

I don't even know how you properly compare RU and UNC. Both teams are being cited by the experts as having extreme resumes in that ours is crazy/unique and theirs is the definition of safe.

On bracket matrix we are one place above then fwiw.

 

[goru7]

The feat means nothing to the argument a team that is 1-5 vs Q1 teams shouldnt be counted as a Q1 at home for a team

Yeah maybe true but as much as you do not want to acknowledge how good a win that was when we couldn’t make 10 layups or 5-7 foot shots and should have been a 10-15 point win , I find your thought offensive to any Rutgers fan. You minimize every great accomplishment this team and the last 3 years under Pike have accomplished. It is getting old having to defend Rutgers on this board with your takes.