@bac2therac
Thank you. I look forward to your analysis ever day. Please keep posting the games of interest each day and how it benefits/hurts our chances, it now makes a Stanford game interesting.
BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 3/3/2020
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
@bac2therac
Thank you. I look forward to your analysis ever day. Please keep posting the games of interest each day and how it benefits/hurts our chances, it now makes a Stanford game interesting.
Rooting guide today:
Northern Iowa against Drake
Wake Forest against NC State
Duquesne against Richmond
San Diego State against Boise State
Wyoming against Utah State
Northern Iowa against Drake
Wake Forest against NC State
Duquesne against Richmond
San Diego State against Boise State
Wyoming against Utah State
Best case scenario is that Northern Iowa wins Arch Madness. But, if they were to lose, this afternoon is the best time for it. Agree that I’d still be rooting for them today in hopes they run the table, but a bad loss to Drake would really hurt as the number of at-large bids available shrinks.
I highly doubt they will lose. They just beat Drake last week at Drake by 27 points. Drake is terrible.
That said, not only are you right, but there would also be a domino effect on the whole B12 bubble. WVU’s neutral win over Northern Iowa would lose a lot of luster if that happened - may even fall to Q2. I’d think their NET would take pretty big a hit too. Oklahoma can’t afford for WVU to fall too much - they are counting on the sweep of them for 2 quality Q1 wins over a solid at large team.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
If they lose to wyoming, def our, beat them does nothing. Then, theyd have to at least have a respectful showing vs sdsu to be in tourney contention. Sdsu is a very flawed team (i would know i live bet those bums vs unlv and they couldnt cover)
Lundardi and Bracketville both have Rutgers as a 10 facing Arizona.
Given that we played Arizona State the last time we were in the NCAA tournament, this would be sort of cosmic being paired again with an Arizona based team.
Friday morning update:
Reminder Tulsa remains the AAC projected automatic bid winner as they remain in first place following the Houston loss last night. They have zero chance as an at large. The Oregon win over Cal ties them with UCLA in the Pac 12 but the Ducks have the tiebreaker on the Bruins so UCLA now drops from projected Pac 12 autobid winner to Pac 12 at large bubble school
8: MARQUETTE, PROVIDENCE, FLORIDA, LSU
9: HOUSTON, SAINT MARY'S, RUTGERS, INDIANA
10: USC, NORTHERN IOWA, EAST TENNESSEE STATE, TEXAS TECH
11: XAVIER, OKLAHOMA, ARIZONA STATE, UCLA/TEXAS
12: NORTH CAROLINA STATE/STANFORD, TULSA, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, LIBERTY
FIRST 4 BYES: TEXAS TECH, XAVIER, OKLAHOMA, ARIZONA STATE
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, STANFORD, TEXAS, UCLA
FIRST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, UTAH STATE, PURDUE, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: ARKANSAS, WICHITA STATE, MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE
THE REST: SOUTH CAROLINA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, RHODE ISLAND, CONNECTICUT
Houston's loss at UConn dropped them from a 6 to a 9.
There is a huge gap between St Marys at 9 and RU at 9.
RU and Indiana are very close to each other right now.
The impact of Rutgers/Purdue game is enormous. A win over Purdue will lock RU in the field and eliminate Purdue from bubble contention meaning they would have to win the Big 10 tourney or perhaps the Big 10 final could do it...very unlikely.
A Purdue win could move them into the field tomorrow.
The impact of Rutgers loss is going to depend on what other bubble schools do Saturday and Sunday, RU will still be in the field but they almost certainly fall to somewhere on the 11 line but not in the first 4 games yet.
There is very little seperating the grouping of 7 schools from 11 Xavier to Stanford the next to last team in
6 of my last 8 in schools are coming from the Pac 12 and the Big 12 meaning both those tournaments are going to be huge opportunities for play ins or play outs.
North Carolina State is my last school but it will be incredibly difficult for them to remain in the field without beating one of the ACC big 3 in the ACC tourney
It is greater than 50/50 that a 2nd AAC school will make the tournament so while the Tulsa situation may eventually open a spot, it may very well be filled by a another AAC school.
There are 11 spots left and there are 23 schools competing for them...realistically though the schools in the REST catagory are distant longshots
Reminder Tulsa remains the AAC projected automatic bid winner as they remain in first place following the Houston loss last night. They have zero chance as an at large. The Oregon win over Cal ties them with UCLA in the Pac 12 but the Ducks have the tiebreaker on the Bruins so UCLA now drops from projected Pac 12 autobid winner to Pac 12 at large bubble school
8: MARQUETTE, PROVIDENCE, FLORIDA, LSU
9: HOUSTON, SAINT MARY'S, RUTGERS, INDIANA
10: USC, NORTHERN IOWA, EAST TENNESSEE STATE, TEXAS TECH
11: XAVIER, OKLAHOMA, ARIZONA STATE, UCLA/TEXAS
12: NORTH CAROLINA STATE/STANFORD, TULSA, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, LIBERTY
FIRST 4 BYES: TEXAS TECH, XAVIER, OKLAHOMA, ARIZONA STATE
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, STANFORD, TEXAS, UCLA
FIRST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, UTAH STATE, PURDUE, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: ARKANSAS, WICHITA STATE, MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE
THE REST: SOUTH CAROLINA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, RHODE ISLAND, CONNECTICUT
Houston's loss at UConn dropped them from a 6 to a 9.
There is a huge gap between St Marys at 9 and RU at 9.
RU and Indiana are very close to each other right now.
The impact of Rutgers/Purdue game is enormous. A win over Purdue will lock RU in the field and eliminate Purdue from bubble contention meaning they would have to win the Big 10 tourney or perhaps the Big 10 final could do it...very unlikely.
A Purdue win could move them into the field tomorrow.
The impact of Rutgers loss is going to depend on what other bubble schools do Saturday and Sunday, RU will still be in the field but they almost certainly fall to somewhere on the 11 line but not in the first 4 games yet.
There is very little seperating the grouping of 7 schools from 11 Xavier to Stanford the next to last team in
6 of my last 8 in schools are coming from the Pac 12 and the Big 12 meaning both those tournaments are going to be huge opportunities for play ins or play outs.
North Carolina State is my last school but it will be incredibly difficult for them to remain in the field without beating one of the ACC big 3 in the ACC tourney
It is greater than 50/50 that a 2nd AAC school will make the tournament so while the Tulsa situation may eventually open a spot, it may very well be filled by a another AAC school.
There are 11 spots left and there are 23 schools competing for them...realistically though the schools in the REST catagory are distant longshots
Think the SoCon is a one bid league regardless, or could ETSU afford a loss in the Champ to a Furman or Greensboro and still slip in? Think they’d be right along the cut line, depending of course on how things fall elsewhere.
close...cannot really determine until dust is clear. Its likely that a school not projected in currently from the A10, MWC, AAC or a stealer like No Iowa or E Tenn St will get a bid taking it from a bloated power 6 school...just the odds favor something like that happening
I’d think they’d be right on the cut line, but definitely not “finished” Their non-conf profile has really taken a hit with the slides by WVU and Colorado.
its only 10 at halftime, losing in the semis might be foregiven but in the quarters maybe not. In their case we wouldnt know until the all the bubbles team finished sometime before Selection Sunday.
in comparing them to Richmond, Richmond beat Wisky and URI, No Iowa beat Colorado and So Carolina. both have 19 of 23 wins to Q3 and 4..similar sos
The dreaded Rutgers message board jinx. Now only down by three with over 16 minutes left.
Jinx of the jinx! UNI went scoreless for 10 minutes and is going down in flames! Drake 71 UNI 53 with less than two minutes to play.
So how safe was UNI's bid? Are they in jeopardy losing this badly to a terrible team?
I wanted them to win just to ensure that is didn’t become a two bid league. They got crushed though. I assume they are not ahead of RU though
I think they have Dayton written all over them. But more likely to be NIT than skipping Dayton and being fully in the field.
Drake isn’t completely horrible. NET will probably land around 160.
its Q3 they are horrible....that makes 3 Q3...why should No Iowa get in over Richmond or Utah State or Wichita State...upon further review getting shitkicked by 21 should seal their fate
I agree. I like mid majors, but this resume doesn’t get it done. No way.
I don’t think they should get in, but teams that I often are surprised at are those Belmont and Mid Tennessee types with gaudy records in middling conferences. I think Northern Iowa will be really close.
look at Belmonts resume vs No Iowa...better....I know No Iowa has the better win but overall you cant get in with 3 Q3 losses and losing by 21 to a bad team. Belmont lost to Murrayu St in the OVC finals.
That Belmont team had only 9 wins over Q1-Q3, with two Q3 losses. An astounding 18 Q4 or non-D1 wins. Best wins over Murray St and Lioscomb. NET a little worse than where I expect N Iowa to land. I like this N Iowa profile better, but really don’t think either belong.
I dont see it......3 Q3 losses...cannot lose to Drake by 21...they lost 5 games in conference
belmont had a non conference sos of 39...losses to Purdue, Maryland, Temple
this year there are schools like Utah State, Richmond, Rhody, Memphis, Wichita who are better
belmont had a non conference sos of 39...losses to Purdue, Maryland, Temple
this year there are schools like Utah State, Richmond, Rhody, Memphis, Wichita who are better
Keep in mind teams can jump them. I sorta get it. Think about it for a second. If Lunardi still Hs then in, then he’ll probably keep us in if we lose to Purdue.
you never want to be on a last team in spot with no more games to play. It basically means they are out
UNI is donezoooo. Too many teams to close together where a mid major can't take a big time butt kicking by a bad Q3 team like that and stay in. These other smaller schools are going to win a couple conference tournament games and leap them even if they are close right now.
