OT: 12/16/20 Snowstorm Thread: First Significant Winter Storm of the Season - Major Snow/Sleet/Rain
- Thread starter RU848789
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My plow guy told me I he would have to come at least twice, maybe three times. His kids may be disappointed. $$$$
Glad we got a solid snow event. But still a bust based on what predictions were, even leasing up toward tonight. Seems like forecasts will never quite be able to forecast it lol. Generally on point with this storm, just didn't quite predict the dry slots and weak sleet as well. Really cut into the snow totals it seems. I know sleet was predicted, but they whiffed on north jersey.
Are you actually in Newark, and what do you have? Friend flew out of Liberty at 3 p.m and she made it to Arizona. No snow there.
Someone up by Budd Lake may get a different amount than someone in Flanders
Yes right in the heart of Newark.
Snow started at about 3, and was light - essentially flurries. It picked up VERY quickly, and was a near blizzard at around 6-8 o'clock. Snow accumulated quickly. But it tapered off into lighter snow by about 9:30. Precipitation continued though. Right now (1:30 a.m.) the snow is coming down hard again. Significantly hard.
I doubt we get to a foot here, but about the 6-8 inch range I bet we fall into. So significant storm. Just not the 12-14 inches we thought was possible.
That being said, I am not actually measuring, just guessing based on what I'm looking at, with the epic 2 foot storm from January '16 as a reference.
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So after finishing up poker around 1 am, I went out and shoveled while it was snowing mostly lightly (had sleet before then) and finished around 3 am. We got about another 1" from 11-3 for a probable final tally of 7.0", which matches up well with the 6.5-7.5" amounts I've seen in northern Middlesex County; we did get 12-16" drifts, lol. Not quite the 8-12" range I was thinking for the 95 corridor, but not that far off either. Was certainly a fun storm to track and enjoy. I had cleared the board at 11 pm and we got about 1/2" of sleet and a 1/2" of snow, which would've been about 2" if all snow (which would've been 8" total). Yeah a foot would've been nice, but I got almost as much as all last winter, so i'm pretty happy.
Was interesting to see how many of the areas predicted to get maybe 1-3/2-4", like much of SNJ near Philly (which got 6.3") and northern Ocean and much of Monmouth County ended up getting 4-7", so those areas overperformed while the 95 corridor underperformed a fair amount vs. the NWS forecasts, but weren't too bad vs. the 6-12" forecasts many had and I'm pretty sure @RUJohnny and the WW folks got it pretty close (can't recall, but I think they both said 4-8").
And the areas NW of 95 and well NW that were forecast to get 12-18" (and up to 20" in spots) busted pretty badly as I've only seen a few reports over 10" with only the Poconos getting over 12". The 8-14" for NYC/LI busted moderately, as they mostly got 4-8" with Central Park getting 6.5", more than last winter. Turns out that it wasn't really the sleet that got us nearly as much as simply not getting the precip, as very few locations got over 1" liquid, when 1.5" or more was expected. The areas that got all the precip were huge swaths of central/northern PA and much of NY from Binghamton to Albany, where many locations got over 20" of snow (and some places got 30").
Some folks may still pick up another inch or so (we're getting some light snow still). And yes, my back is killng me, lol - this is why I usually shovel every 3-4" and not all at once...
Getting ready to head out soon to redo my 2 commercial accounts again. Probably little over an inch since 11:30 last night but haven't ventured outside yet. Well see how Sweet Pea handles the snow. Then picking up Bac to handle residentials. Happy shoveling.
Edit: Looks like its over in Hillsborough per radar at 4:45am. Time to hit the Hillsborough Deli.
Edit: Looks like its over in Hillsborough per radar at 4:45am. Time to hit the Hillsborough Deli.
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got perhaps 5.5 here in Belle Mead...tough to measure accurately...at least 5 inches. All in all looks like the NAM and RGEM did better than the other models which were complete garbage. GFS and Euro were stunningly awful. Most weenies will forget this bust and make the same mistakes next time. Kudos to RUJonny for nailing this pretty good.
Are you saying RUJonny has taken over the starting position for our weather forecasts? Will he be starting the official weather threads going forward? Asking for a friend.
That's because I snuck over and shoveled while you were sleeping.
You're welcome.
No, i'm guessing you did though. We just got lots and lots of rain. My street was pretty flooded last night.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
They’re probably gonna have snow on the ground now until April...well the ski resorts will love it (if they are even allowed to operate in NY)
+1
Looks like 5 inches. Once again WeatherWorks hit the nail on the head with their forecast! No hype, didn't believe those wild models.
As for the other models and predictions in this thread (you know who you are!). I'm calling this.
BUST!
Another bust. We haven't had a winter storm meet expectations in a long time now.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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Are those real or store-bought?😱+1
Looks like 5 inches. Once again WeatherWorks hit the nail on the head with their forecast! No hype, didn't believe those wild models.
As for the other models and predictions in this thread (you know who you are!). I'm calling this.
BUST!
I believe that is more of an indictment on crappy models and overhype wishcasting than anything else. Everyone tries to create a "story" now.
My town has a service called WeatherWorks. We pay them to provide forecasts for DPW, snow plowing, and other activities. They are almost always lower than others, but almost always right. No hype, no story, just paid to be accurate.
They called this snow storm perfectly.
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+1
Looks like 5 inches. Once again WeatherWorks hit the nail on the head with their forecast! No hype, didn't believe those wild models.
As for the other models and predictions in this thread (you know who you are!). I'm calling this.
BUST!
I always think she will become exactly what Shelley Winters became as she aged
Thanks for the acknowledgements, I'm pretty happy to be "less wrong" than most. I was higher than the NWS in the 195 corridor, and lower than them everywhere else. Worked out pretty well.
Models become problematic once they started providing snowfall clown maps. These are just plain awful and should not be used for forecasting. Better off just looking at your QPF and thicknesses along with your vertical analysis to forecast. Could also use model Skew-Ts for more local forecasting (multiple models for days showed the sleet and while the warm tongue was shallow it was 100% evident on the skews).
No one takes into account climatology anymore either. It is exceedingly rare to receive a 12 in snowfall before Christmas along and 20-30 miles NW of I-95 given climatological conditions.
Back in the late 90s and early 2000s climatology and regional analysis rather than snowmap model hugging provided fewer "busts" in forecasts, especially in the 2000s. Eventually this will change, either with better modeling or a more holistic approach to forecasting.
There’s nothing like waking up in the morning to a large bust.+1
Looks like 5 inches. Once again WeatherWorks hit the nail on the head with their forecast! No hype, didn't believe those wild models.
As for the other models and predictions in this thread (you know who you are!). I'm calling this.
BUST!
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
RU#s is on his way to Binghamton...word has it! 😉
has cnn blamed Binghamton’s snow on climate change yet...you know they want to!! 😎
has cnn blamed Binghamton’s snow on climate change yet...you know they want to!! 😎
I think the models are pretty good. Or at least as good as they have ever been. Human subjectivity and the desire to create events out of everything may be a bigger factor. In fairness, it seems like many of these storms lately have had very sharp cut-off lines making them harder to forecast.
What platform do you use for the remote poker, and what games does it support? Been looking for something to use for our neighborhood games until COVID has passed.
Just measured 14 inches on my driveway in NH and still snowing heavily. Also drifts to over 3 feet. Forecast from accuweather was 6-8 as recently as yesterday afternoon.
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