No, Ernesto did not cause any damage in US. Freight costs too high to be shipping roofing overseas.
OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC/Others Predicting Extremely Active Season; Hurricane Milton Aims at Central FL Gulf Coast as a Cat 3/4
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Oh i was wondering what you did in terms of preparing for potential landfalls.
Prior to hurricane hitting do the following:
1. For supply chain and plants, pull out our playbooks for hurricanes
2. Stay on top of severity and paths (we use our own contracted meteorology services rather RU message board)
3. For incoming inventory materials look at days on hand, run out dates, etc.
4. For suppliers that are in its path move up orders, bring inventory in early before storm if necessary. Even for suppliers not in the path consider bringing inventory in to ensure its on site in the event transportation lanes are down. Top off all silos and storage tanks.
5. For plants in high risk areas, ie Tampa, Savannah, etc., we have artificial barriers that are put up to prevent flooding.
6. Plants need to prepare for the possibility of shutting down while the storm hits, ie make sure backup power is working, drain process pipes, etc. Most of our plants use hot asphalt. If power goes and you don't drain the pipes asphalt solidifies and your process is shot.
7. Have automatic alert system for employees to keep them aware of what is happening and also to check on them after storm.
8. We also have our own trucking company so we can use that to handle extra shipments, store materials in trucks, etc.
A lot of other things go on to make this happen but these are some high level activities.
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Well, there's been no tropical activity in the Atlantic since Ernesto and lots of folks are wondering why the tropics have gone so quiet as we're a couple of weeks into what is usually the climatological peak (Aug 10th to Oct 10th with a pronounced peak in early/mid-Sept) of the season. Lots of theories out there, but many meteorologists are speculating that perhaps the forecasts for a near record level of activity won't verify. Good discussion of all of this in the AmericanWx tropical thread linked below.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60050-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/page/32/
Still a long way to go, though, and the NHC is finally tracking the first threat in a few weeks, which several models have picked up on, and the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a return to moderate activity (but not as high as normal for the peak of the season) by early September, as per the tweet below, which contains the CPC graphic on activity from 9/4-9/18.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60050-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/page/32/
Still a long way to go, though, and the NHC is finally tracking the first threat in a few weeks, which several models have picked up on, and the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a return to moderate activity (but not as high as normal for the peak of the season) by early September, as per the tweet below, which contains the CPC graphic on activity from 9/4-9/18.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
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To summarize:
Nothing is happening, but I will post for attention.
Given that we are in the middle of hurricane season it really isn't going out on a limb to predict activity over the next month.
Selfishly I’m going to hope increased activity comes after 9/21, the day my beach vacation ends!
Perhaps I didn't make my point well enough. It is noteworthy how quiet the Atlantic Basin has been since Ernesto and this quiet period looks to at least extend into early September. As Phil Klotzbach (the CSU lead for their topical season forecasts) said in the article below, the last time we've had no named systems from 8/21 through 9/2 was 1997 and even though there's a threat now in the Atlantic, it looks slow to develop if at all, so we're likely to not have a named storm before 9/2. And forecasts beyond a week always are less certain, so even though the CPC predicts increased activity after 9/4, it's not clear that that means the kind of high activity we often see around the peak of the season (9/1 through 9/20 is a fairly sharp peak). So if the season doesn't heat up significantly by mid-September, all of those near record busy seasonal forecasts will likely bust.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ricane-forecast-atlantic-pacific/74953599007/
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You're looking at the 2-day forecast. The 7-day forecast has 0% for the one near Bermuda (no idea why they'd even track that one), but has 20% for the one nearing the Caribbean.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Excellent article in the Philadelphia Inquirer, linked below, discussing this season's tropical season in the Atlantic Basin. Season got off to a roaring start through early August with 5 storms/3 hurricanes (two is the avg # of hurricanes through the end of August), but after Ernesto, all has gone quiet and we're now seeing the first barren period from 8/21 to 9/2 in 27 years.
Inquirer Article on Atlantic Basin Tropical Activity
As per previous posts, all of the seasonal forecasts were for well above normal tropical activity this season, given record high SSTs (seas surface temps) in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM and El Nino dissipating in the Pacific (meaning less shear in the tropical Atlantic).
However, meteorologists have noted that despite these generally favorable global conditions, over the past few weeks a couple of more local conditions appear to have impeded any tropical development. These include winds aloft over western Africa driving weather disturbances further north than usual as they enter the Atlantic, where they encounter cooler waters and drier, Saharan air, as well as the fact that while the Atlantic Ocean is warm, so is the upper atmosphere, limiting rising air and condensation, which drive thunderstorms (this "stability" due to very warm ocean and atmospheric temps is likely a product of global warming).
Having said all that, we're now entering the busiest part of the season (~70% of tropical systems occur after 9/6) and there are indications that the upper level winds over Africa are shifting, which should drive disturbances further south off the African coast towards warmer waters. As a result, many forecasters believe that the tropics are poised to become much more active soon, as per the Inquirer article.
On the other hand, there are quite a few who believe the unexpectedly low level of activity will continue (see the link below) and that this season will significantly underperform the very active forecasts. We'll see soon, but if we have a low level of activity through the mid-September historical peak of the season, the seasonal forecasts of very high tropical activity will likely bust. However, even if the high seasonal activity forecasts do bust, that won’t matter to people who have already been impacted by tropical systems this year or those who may still be impacted during the rest of the season, as nobody is saying the season is over.
As of now, there are a couple of areas of concern, one about to enter the Caribbean and one just off the African coast, which both have a ~40% chance of becoming named storms in the next week according to the NHC link below, but neither of these is looking that impressive yet. Beyond that, the long range ensemble models are all over the place with regard to tropical activity the next couple of weeks.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Inquirer Article on Atlantic Basin Tropical Activity
As per previous posts, all of the seasonal forecasts were for well above normal tropical activity this season, given record high SSTs (seas surface temps) in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM and El Nino dissipating in the Pacific (meaning less shear in the tropical Atlantic).
However, meteorologists have noted that despite these generally favorable global conditions, over the past few weeks a couple of more local conditions appear to have impeded any tropical development. These include winds aloft over western Africa driving weather disturbances further north than usual as they enter the Atlantic, where they encounter cooler waters and drier, Saharan air, as well as the fact that while the Atlantic Ocean is warm, so is the upper atmosphere, limiting rising air and condensation, which drive thunderstorms (this "stability" due to very warm ocean and atmospheric temps is likely a product of global warming).
Having said all that, we're now entering the busiest part of the season (~70% of tropical systems occur after 9/6) and there are indications that the upper level winds over Africa are shifting, which should drive disturbances further south off the African coast towards warmer waters. As a result, many forecasters believe that the tropics are poised to become much more active soon, as per the Inquirer article.
On the other hand, there are quite a few who believe the unexpectedly low level of activity will continue (see the link below) and that this season will significantly underperform the very active forecasts. We'll see soon, but if we have a low level of activity through the mid-September historical peak of the season, the seasonal forecasts of very high tropical activity will likely bust. However, even if the high seasonal activity forecasts do bust, that won’t matter to people who have already been impacted by tropical systems this year or those who may still be impacted during the rest of the season, as nobody is saying the season is over.
As of now, there are a couple of areas of concern, one about to enter the Caribbean and one just off the African coast, which both have a ~40% chance of becoming named storms in the next week according to the NHC link below, but neither of these is looking that impressive yet. Beyond that, the long range ensemble models are all over the place with regard to tropical activity the next couple of weeks.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
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Thanks for the update as I've been watching that NOAA link. I'm hoping that blob off the coast of Africa continues to look unimpressive and doesn't mess with our NC beach vacation in two weeks.
NC at the peak of the tropical season is like running with scissors, lol. Good luck. We'll be in OCNJ for 2 weeks in mid-Sept, but NJ is a lot less of a target.
We knew we were rolling the dice, hence the trip insurance! After going there for 25 yrs, this is only our second time in September. Oddly enough, the time a TS went right over top of us, it was in July. You never know.
Well, the tropical Atlantic is finally heating up on cue with the peak of the season, with PTC-6 (potential tropical cyclone) in the SW Gulf of Mexico likely to become the next named storm soon, with the NHC forecasting this to become Francine, which they think will become a Cat 1 hurricane likely to make landfall somewhere between Houston and New Orleans by Wednesday evening. The system has ~45-50 mph winds, but hasn't been classified as a TS yet, due to it not having a well-defined center of circulation yet and because of that, forecast uncertainty is on the high side.
In addition, there are two more tropical waves out in the eastern and central Atlantic that have a pretty good chance of developing into named storms over the next week or so.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
In addition, there are two more tropical waves out in the eastern and central Atlantic that have a pretty good chance of developing into named storms over the next week or so.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
We’ll be in LBI the week of the 16th, hoping for good weather and I know it’s too far out to predict accurately but what’s your best guess?
The potential storms out in the Atlantic would be more than a week a way of hitting Jersey if paths went that way. You should be safe.
We're also going to be down the shore in OCNJ from 9/14-9/28, so I'll be watching this with much interest. Right now, the weather looks great for this coming weekend into early next week with highs in the low/mid 80s this weekend and then around 80F early next week (and lows only in the mid/upper 60s); beyond that is kind of guesswork. With regard to the tropics, even if one or either of the tropical waves way out in the Atlantic develop into TS's or hurricanes, it would take them a minimum of ~10 days to reach the east coast, so next week is almost certainly safe from tropical systems.
Just in time for the 9/10 tropical season peak, we now have Tropical Storm Francine in the SW GOM with winds of ~50 mph and Francine is likely to strengthen into a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall somewhere between Beaumont TX and New Orleans on Weds evening, with the central LA Gulf coast being in the bullseye right now. However, while track forecasts are pretty solid 3 days out, intensity forecasts are less accurate, so folks in that area should pay attention to any signs of Francine strengthening further.Well, the tropical Atlantic is finally heating up on cue with the peak of the season, with PTC-6 (potential tropical cyclone) in the SW Gulf of Mexico likely to become the next named storm soon, with the NHC forecasting this to become Francine, which they think will become a Cat 1 hurricane likely to make landfall somewhere between Houston and New Orleans by Wednesday evening. The system has ~45-50 mph winds, but hasn't been classified as a TS yet, due to it not having a well-defined center of circulation yet and because of that, forecast uncertainty is on the high side.
In addition, there are two more tropical waves out in the eastern and central Atlantic that have a pretty good chance of developing into named storms over the next week or so.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
There will, of course, be damaging (to trees/power lines/roofs, in particular) hurricane force winds at the coast and tens of miles inland, there will be significant storm surge (5-10' above normally dry ground) along the storm's track and to the east of the track, so storm surge damage will be substantial and locally catastrophic from 5-10' of surge, as per the graphic below. Flooding rains of 4-8" in spots along/near the coast and 2-4" for the entire region near the path and a few hundred miles inland are also looking likely, especially since this area has received a lot of rain lately. In addition, landfalling systems usually bring small tornadoes along and east of the storm's track. Fortunately, for us, Francine's remnants should not impact our area at all.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents
You obviously do, since you follow me around like a little puppy.
I respond to you very sporadically. Said another way, I mock you very sporadically.
It bothers you. You'll just have to deal with that.
It bothers you. You'll just have to deal with that.
I care, that’s why I asked. The divisiveness on this board is FUBAR.
Those living in this area care since we have impacted in recent years by remnants, TS, SS. How soon we forget the dump from Ida taking lives and postponing the home opener. Agree with you about the FUBAR climate on this board sometimes!
If you care that much or are that concerned you wouldn't be coming to a Rutgers message board for your information to follow someone cutting and pasting stuff available on the internet. Find a local or regional weather channel for your area.
I look at a variety of sources, not just this board. Why so salty?
this is kind of funny given that we really are not too impacted (thankfully)
another season that looks to be scientists crying wolf
still, I like these weather threads as I find them better then weather apps except my new phone gives me a daily update that I like.
Keep at it numbers, just lose the eye catching theatrical and often incorrect titles that proclaim doom:)
I cited at least three major impacts and probably missed several. They are still worth keeping an eye on in our area.
Just in time for the 9/10 tropical season peak, we now have Tropical Storm Francine in the SW GOM with winds of ~50 mph and Francine is likely to strengthen into a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall somewhere between Beaumont TX and New Orleans on Weds evening, with the central LA Gulf coast being in the bullseye right now. However, while track forecasts are pretty solid 3 days out, intensity forecasts are less accurate, so folks in that area should pay attention to any signs of Francine strengthening further.
There will, of course, be damaging (to trees/power lines/roofs, in particular) hurricane force winds at the coast and tens of miles inland, there will be significant storm surge (5-10' above normally dry ground) along the storm's track and to the east of the track, so storm surge damage will be substantial and locally catastrophic from 5-10' of surge, as per the graphic below. Flooding rains of 4-8" in spots along/near the coast and 2-4" for the entire region near the path and a few hundred miles inland are also looking likely, especially since this area has received a lot of rain lately. In addition, landfalling systems usually bring small tornadoes along and east of the storm's track. Fortunately, for us, Francine's remnants should not impact our area at all.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents
Francine's forecast track has shifted about 75 miles east in the last 24 hours including a 40 mile shift east just since the last update, 6 hours ago. This is pretty significant, especially for New Orleans, if any additional shifts east occur. It's also interesting to note the bolded part below from the NHC discussion, wherein they show that the forecasted peak intensity of the storm hasn't really changed from the 85 knot/100 mph forecast from this morning - it's just that the points on the map they choose to display now shows an implied max of 80 knots/90 mph. Hopefully, the increased shear before landfall materializes or else further strengthening could occur, as the storm will be going over abnormally warm waters - we don't need an intensifying hurricane at landfall. The storm surge and rainfall forecasts haven't changed much, so not updating those.
Three things I wish the NHC would do: i) provide a zoomed in map of the landfall area, so one can see more details (and more easily see run to run shifts), which are hard to see when looking at maps that are 2000 miles across, ii) provide a finer continuum of forecast locations/winds, so one doesn't "miss" intensity peaks (or dips) and iii) label the track maps at the points shown with the forecast wind speeds instead of the limited S/H/M labels, which aren't detailed enough.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
However, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last
advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward.
In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind
radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at
12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches
for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.
Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a
possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the
intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to
rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise
favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the
latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt
between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to
stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after
landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine
dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that
scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Francine is now a hurricane with 75 mph winds; no major changes in the track/intensity forecast...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101448.shtml?
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101448.shtml?
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
I've always thought it was a little odd that so many people come here for weather info, but they obviously do, and I think it's because the info provided by me and several others is helpful, in general, plus people often ask specific questions for where they live and they usually get good guidance - and one doesn't get that kind of interaction with a web site. And 95% of the time, the gameday, tropical, and winter weather threads are not particularly consequential for anyone, but there have been some extraordinary weather situations where getting accurate, detailed, real-time info and near term predictions of risks, mostly related to tropical systems (like Irene, Sandy, and Ida), but sometimes for major blizzards or major convective events with flooding or severe storms/tornadoes, has been helpful for some posters in assessing their personal and property risks.
The biggest example was Sandy, where hurricane warnings were never issued for the NE US by the NHC, including NY/NJ, because the storm had been reclassified as a hybrid, extratropical storm (so it was no longer a "hurricane" ergo no hurricane warning could be issued - classic bureaucratic thinking - the rules changed on that after Sandy and that led to significant confusion in messaging for the NWS and local emergency officials, many of whom downplayed Sandy's risks, unfortunately, including then NYC Mayor Bloomberg. At that time, I had been posting on Sandy for days and 3-4 days out began strongly warning posters here and on other sites that anyone at the NJ/NY coasts should seriously consider evacuating with as many of their valuables as they could given the record high storm surge forecasts - and back then we had a couple of mets who posted in the weather threads who concurred and afterwards a bunch of posters said the messaging here helped convinced them to evacuate from homes that were damaged or worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/science/bryan-norcross-speaking-beyond-whats-forecast.html
Francine's forecast track has shifted about 75 miles east in the last 24 hours including a 40 mile shift east just since the last update, 6 hours ago. This is pretty significant, especially for New Orleans, if any additional shifts east occur. It's also interesting to note the bolded part below from the NHC discussion, wherein they show that the forecasted peak intensity of the storm hasn't really changed from the 85 knot/100 mph forecast from this morning - it's just that the points on the map they choose to display now shows an implied max of 80 knots/90 mph. Hopefully, the increased shear before landfall materializes or else further strengthening could occur, as the storm will be going over abnormally warm waters - we don't need an intensifying hurricane at landfall. The storm surge and rainfall forecasts haven't changed much, so not updating those.
Three things I wish the NHC would do: i) provide a zoomed in map of the landfall area, so one can see more details (and more easily see run to run shifts), which are hard to see when looking at maps that are 2000 miles across, ii) provide a finer continuum of forecast locations/winds, so one doesn't "miss" intensity peaks (or dips) and iii) label the track maps at the points shown with the forecast wind speeds instead of the limited S/H/M labels, which aren't detailed enough.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
However, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last
advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward.
In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind
radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at
12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches
for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.
Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a
possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the
intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to
rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise
favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the
latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt
between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to
stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after
landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine
dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that
scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Francine has strengthened overnight to a 90 mph strong Cat 1 hurricane and is forecast to continue strengthening a bit more, reaching ~100 mph winds before landfall late this afternoon or early evening in the vicinity of Morgan City, LA and, fortunately, is forecast to weaken fairly quickly around that time and after landfall, due to significantly increased wind shear and dry air entrainment, although hurricane warnings do extend almost into MS.
Those kinds of winds will cause substantial damage and will likely lead to widespread downed trees/power lines (and risks to people, obviously) and power outages. The storm surge and rainfall forecasts haven't changed much, so not updating those graphics, but storm surges of 5-10' will result in substantial and locally catastrophic damage and widespread rainfall of 4-8" (and up to 12" locally) will result in significant flooding. And as usual, there will be the risk of tornadoes along and east of the storm's track as it moves inland. Francine is still expected to dissipate in a few days in the NE AR/NW TN areas.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 27.0N 93.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Hahaha I thought you were going to end with "reason to lower prices" which is if course comical. They would never do that.
But maybe just price gouge a little less than normal was great and right on the mark.
Well done.
It's more for the conversation with posters and everyone's observations when the event is happening. I don't think many here rely solely on these threads for their weather forecasts.
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