OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC/Others Predicting Extremely Active Season; Hurricane Milton Aims at Central FL Gulf Coast as a Cat 3/4
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Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish, SW of Morgan City, today at 5 pm CDT with 100 mph winds; the storm surge was substantial and catastrophic for some locations. And a Flash flood emergency was recently declared for New Orleans and much of SE LA, after 6-10" of rain has fallen in a short time. Numerous flood reports, water rescues, etc., and that's just from the rain. Hundreds of thousands without power and more to come, as Francine is still a 75 mph hurricane, although weakening.
And we now have tropical depression 7, in the eastern Atlantic, which is likely to become tropical storm Gordon soon. This will likely not become a hurricane and will remain a fish storm, never approaching any land masses.
Beyond that, there is some chance of a sub?tropical storm forming off the Carolinas early next week, which could bring our area some rain by Tues/Weds, after 5 more days of gorgeous September weather through at least Monday, but this forecast is highly uncertain. The NWS-Philly discussion on this is below.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a whole, little in the way of changes were made to the long
term period. The upper level blocking pattern begins to break
down a bit late Sunday into Monday, but should continue to
remain dry areawide through this timeframe.
Beyond Monday, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain as the
weather pattern is less clear after the breakdown of the block.
For now, much of the available global deterministic guidance
indicates that there is potential for the development of a
tropical disturbance off the Southeast Coast on Monday along a
stalled boundary. What exactly happens regarding strength,
track, and if it even develops is not clear at this time. Will
continue to monitor this threat closely over the weekend as
weather features following blocking patterns are often difficult
to predict. Hence, maintained a 20-30% chance of showers on
Tuesday and Wednesday for the entire region.
Beyond that, there is some chance of a sub?tropical storm forming off the Carolinas early next week, which could bring our area some rain by Tues/Weds, after 5 more days of gorgeous September weather through at least Monday, but this forecast is highly uncertain. The NWS-Philly discussion on this is below.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a whole, little in the way of changes were made to the long
term period. The upper level blocking pattern begins to break
down a bit late Sunday into Monday, but should continue to
remain dry areawide through this timeframe.
Beyond Monday, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain as the
weather pattern is less clear after the breakdown of the block.
For now, much of the available global deterministic guidance
indicates that there is potential for the development of a
tropical disturbance off the Southeast Coast on Monday along a
stalled boundary. What exactly happens regarding strength,
track, and if it even develops is not clear at this time. Will
continue to monitor this threat closely over the weekend as
weather features following blocking patterns are often difficult
to predict. Hence, maintained a 20-30% chance of showers on
Tuesday and Wednesday for the entire region.
Sorry, the NC coast looks like it will be getting significant rain much of this coming week from a low pressure system (which may or may not become subtropical, although it really doesn't matter as the impacts will likely be similar, i.e., mostly rain); that rain gets to NJ by about Tuesday night, but could be a bit, could be a lot (highly uncertain).
We now have Tropical Storm Gordon with winds of 40 mph in the east central Atlantic. Gordon is expected to move slowly W or WNW and eventually curve N and then NE, if it survives that long, as not much strengthening is expected as conditions are not favorable for that.
Long range Euro weeklies are showing below average activity until late September, when they ramp up to above average activity for a few weeks. The Euro weeklies have been showing the past month as below average activity, which has verified, so perhaps they'll be right again. If not, this season not only won't be well above average, or even average, but it might even be below average, which would be the worst bust I can recall since CSU pioneered fairly accurate seasonal activity forecasts in the 80s (they've been wrong before, but not that wrong, iirc). We'll know soon enough.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/130253.shtml?
Long range Euro weeklies are showing below average activity until late September, when they ramp up to above average activity for a few weeks. The Euro weeklies have been showing the past month as below average activity, which has verified, so perhaps they'll be right again. If not, this season not only won't be well above average, or even average, but it might even be below average, which would be the worst bust I can recall since CSU pioneered fairly accurate seasonal activity forecasts in the 80s (they've been wrong before, but not that wrong, iirc). We'll know soon enough.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/130253.shtml?
I hope this weather sticks around for a few more weeks. I’m heading to Rehoboth end of the month. Would be nice to have sunshine and a cool dry night for Washington
That certainly would be nice. The Climate Prediction Center has our area as above normal in temps and about normal for precip for the last week in September, but it's impossible to know, yet, what weather we'll have on 9/27. We just went through that with the Akron game where the 2 week "forecast" (and I use that term loosely, as 2-week forecasts for a specific day or half day are idiotic to even put out) was for very warm and sunny (even a week out it looked hot and sunny) and we got cooler than normal and cloudy with a few light showers.
For all you hurricane "conspiracy" theorists out there who think that the NHC puts its thumb on the scales to increase the number of named storms, take a look at Potential Tropical Cyclone #8, which is approaching the Carolinas and had ~50 mph winds this morning, which is more than enough for a named TS. However, the NHC is simply looking at the science and has noted that the cyclone does not have a typical warm core and is quite elongated and disorganized, plus it is still interacting with a frontal system driving some of the convection. I'm sure they could've weaseled a TS out of this if they were more concerned about having a busy season than getting the science correct. Fortunately, the latter is and always has been their MO. The system as of 2 pm has weakened from a 50 mph storm to a 40 mph storm and should continue weakening, although it's bringing high winds and heavy rains and surf to the coast from SC to VA.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the
Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The
low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based
on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent
visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the
aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close
proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of
the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north
and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading
across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic
observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.
Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center
lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial
motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should
continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South
Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it
should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend
well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore
over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion
is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins
down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the
previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids.
With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system
becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The
intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the
coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system
down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but
consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue
through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the
Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The
low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based
on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent
visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the
aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close
proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of
the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north
and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading
across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic
observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.
Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center
lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial
motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should
continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South
Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it
should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend
well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore
over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion
is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins
down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the
previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids.
With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system
becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The
intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the
coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system
down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but
consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue
through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday.
Four of us are in a house on the beach in Emerald Isle, NC at the moment and we’ve been getting pounded all day long, much worse since about 1PM. It’s band after band of heavy wind and rain with lulls in between and the surf is something else. It’s actually very interesting to watch but I hope nobody’s getting flooded.
Whatever's it was called it’s been an day here sure. Several tornado warnings, numerous flash flood warnings, and fierce winds all day, finally calming down.
Must have been fun up in Emerald Isle.
Was just about to post on this. No idea yet, where this one is going. Some models show formation of a TS/hurricane while some don't and the ones that do have landfalls anywhere from TX to Florida at any number of intensities and at least one model shows a major hurricane striking the Florida Gulf Coast in ~5 days.
Just sharing that tidbit to let people know that this could be a significant storm, not that Florida is at risk right now.
That's why the NHC just shows it as a potential storm in a few days with a general northward motion. So, everywhere in the GOM should be watching this one. This would be Helene if it forms (unless the other tropical wave in the Atlantic forms earlier).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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Thanks. Please keep us updated on this possible storm !Was just about to post on this. No idea yet, where this one is going. Some models show formation of a TS/hurricane while some don't and the ones that do have landfalls anywhere from TX to Florida at any number of intensities and at least one model shows a major hurricane striking the Florida Gulf Coast in ~5 days.
Just sharing that tidbit to let people know that this could be a significant storm, not that Florida is at risk right now.
That's why the NHC just shows it as a potential storm in a few days with a general northward motion. So, everywhere in the GOM should be watching this one. This would be Helene if it forms (unless the other tropical wave in the Atlantic forms earlier).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Future tropical storm Helene, now known as Invest 97L, is almost a certainty now, as every global and hurricane model has this system, which is now in the NW Caribbean, becoming at least a tropical storm and most have it becoming a hurricane; the NHC has a 70% chance of a named storm within 48 hours and a 90% chance of a named storm in the next 7 days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
The model guidance on track is unusually tightly clustered for a storm that doesn't have a recognizable center of circulation yet, with the storm likely to shoot through the Yucatan Channel into the eastern GOM, with the Florida Panhandle to Big Bend area being the most likely landfall locations in just 3-4 days, as the models show the storm's speed to be on the high end. The guidance on intensity shows ranges from a TS to a Cat 4 hurricane, which is not surprising, as intensity forecasts are usually still much less uncertain than track forecasts, although it's worth noting that most models have this as Cat 2 to Cat 4. See the graphics below (from tropicaltidbits). Note that this storm (or its remnants) is unlikely to affect our area and certainly will not impact the UW game.
Bottom line is interests from about Mobile to Ft. Myers and especially for the FL Panhandle/Big Bend areas need to monitor this situation closely and consider preparing for a potential hurricane.
For those interested in the gory details, the video from meteorologist Mike Naso, linked below, is really good.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
The model guidance on track is unusually tightly clustered for a storm that doesn't have a recognizable center of circulation yet, with the storm likely to shoot through the Yucatan Channel into the eastern GOM, with the Florida Panhandle to Big Bend area being the most likely landfall locations in just 3-4 days, as the models show the storm's speed to be on the high end. The guidance on intensity shows ranges from a TS to a Cat 4 hurricane, which is not surprising, as intensity forecasts are usually still much less uncertain than track forecasts, although it's worth noting that most models have this as Cat 2 to Cat 4. See the graphics below (from tropicaltidbits). Note that this storm (or its remnants) is unlikely to affect our area and certainly will not impact the UW game.
Bottom line is interests from about Mobile to Ft. Myers and especially for the FL Panhandle/Big Bend areas need to monitor this situation closely and consider preparing for a potential hurricane.
For those interested in the gory details, the video from meteorologist Mike Naso, linked below, is really good.
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Well, this doesn’t look goodFuture tropical storm Helene, now known as Invest 97L, is almost a certainty now, as every global and hurricane model has this system, which is now in the NW Caribbean, becoming at least a tropical storm and most have it becoming a hurricane; the NHC has a 70% chance of a named storm within 48 hours and a 90% chance of a named storm in the next 7 days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
The model guidance on track is unusually tightly clustered for a storm that doesn't have a recognizable center of circulation yet, with the storm likely to shoot through the Yucatan Channel into the eastern GOM, with the Florida Panhandle to Big Bend area being the most likely landfall locations in just 3-4 days, as the models show the storm's speed to be on the high end. The guidance on intensity shows ranges from a TS to a Cat 4 hurricane, which is not surprising, as intensity forecasts are usually still much less uncertain than track forecasts, although it's worth noting that most models have this as Cat 2 to Cat 4. See the graphics below (from tropicaltidbits). Note that this storm (or its remnants) is unlikely to affect our area and certainly will not impact the UW game.
Bottom line is interests from about Mobile to Ft. Myers and especially for the FL Panhandle/Big Bend areas need to monitor this situation closely and consider preparing for a potential hurricane.
For those interested in the gory details, the video from meteorologist Mike Naso, linked below, is really good.
Not expected to hit panhandle until late Thursday or early Friday so you should be able to get out. From our internal mapping.
Description
Sep 23, 2024
This Watchtower Alert is being upgraded to Rs-L Red as there is increased confidence in the forecast track, and that this storm (future Helene) will be a high impact hurricane. We recommend preparatory action for locations within the risk zone at this time, which includes Pensacola, Tallahassee, and Gainesville, Florida. The area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean is starting to become more organized this morning local time, as it begins to move toward the Gulf of Mexico. The latest computer guidance is more consistent on the track and takes this system (97L and soon to be Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Helene) northward across the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico during the next 5 days. Here is the latest: Track – Virtually all of the guidance tracks this system from the northwest portion of the Caribbean across the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico this week. Landfall looks to be in the northeast portion of the Gulf of Mexico with the most likely landfall being from Mobile Bay to Tampa Bay. Based on the latest guidance, the most likely area for landfall is the Florida Panhandle. Timing – This system will be a steady mover and accelerate in speed as the storm moves across the eastern portion of the Gulf. Landfall looks to be late Thursday or early Friday in the Florida Panhandle. If the track changes this week, this will also change the timing of landfall. Intensity – This system will have 3-4 days over the Gulf of Mexico prior to landfall later this week. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm and along with favorable atmospheric conditions in this area this week, virtually all guidance indicates rapid intensification once the storm organizes early this week. Time over the Gulf of Mexico is relatively limited but most of the models intensify the system rapidly prior to landfall. The intensity forecast ranges from Cat 2 to Cat 4 when analyzing all the computer guidance. Impacts – It does not look like the Port of New Orleans will be directly impacted by soon to be Tropical Storm/Hurricane Helene. The port could have some indirect impacts as shipping routes across the eastern Gulf of Mexico are altered. The ag belt that looks to be most impacted is the Southeast (soybeans, cotton, some corn although much of it has been harvested, tobacco, etc.). Depending upon the precise track and intensity, some damage via winds and heavy rains are likely. Agricultural interests in Florida could also be impacted such as citrus and fruits/vegetables. From a supply chain perspective, rail and road transportation will be disrupted for more than 24 hours within the risk zone. I-10 and I-75 are likely to feature closures where they run through the risk zone. Energy interests within the risk zone will also feature significant disruptions lasting on the order of days and potentially longer for the hardest hit areas. Suffice it to say, this will be an item to watch very closely this week since small changes in the track/intensity will alter the impacts. This Watchtower Alert will be updated as new information becomes available.
As expected, this system is slowly getting its act together and earlier today it was declared "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9" which means the NHC can start issuing more detailed forecasts and watches/warnings, even though a formal TS hasn't formed yet, but it is expected to form soon, so watches and warnings are already up for Yucatan and western Cuba.Future tropical storm Helene, now known as Invest 97L, is almost a certainty now, as every global and hurricane model has this system, which is now in the NW Caribbean, becoming at least a tropical storm and most have it becoming a hurricane; the NHC has a 70% chance of a named storm within 48 hours and a 90% chance of a named storm in the next 7 days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
The model guidance on track is unusually tightly clustered for a storm that doesn't have a recognizable center of circulation yet, with the storm likely to shoot through the Yucatan Channel into the eastern GOM, with the Florida Panhandle to Big Bend area being the most likely landfall locations in just 3-4 days, as the models show the storm's speed to be on the high end. The guidance on intensity shows ranges from a TS to a Cat 4 hurricane, which is not surprising, as intensity forecasts are usually still much less uncertain than track forecasts, although it's worth noting that most models have this as Cat 2 to Cat 4. See the graphics below (from tropicaltidbits). Note that this storm (or its remnants) is unlikely to affect our area and certainly will not impact the UW game.
Bottom line is interests from about Mobile to Ft. Myers and especially for the FL Panhandle/Big Bend areas need to monitor this situation closely and consider preparing for a potential hurricane.
For those interested in the gory details, the video from meteorologist Mike Naso, linked below, is really good.
The forecast track and intensity aren't too far off what the models were showing early today, with the NHC track showing a projected landfall on Thursday afternoon anywhere from about Pensacola to Tampa, with the center of the line being aimed at the Big Bend area (Apalachee Bay), about ~25 miles south of Tallahassee and with the storm currently forecast to be a Cat 3 hurricane with ~115 mph winds at landfall. Intensity forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, so this could be much weaker or much stronger, so anywhere along the FL Gulf Coast has to be very concerned about this storm.
Storm surge could be catastrophic for some areas with 6-10 feet of surge possible (if ~115 mph; could be less or more) and that's the case for areas east of the track in particular, so, for example, even if it misses Tampa by 50-100 miles, the Tampa region could still receive a major storm surge. As with most landfalling hurricanes, expect torrential, flooding rains (4-8" already being predicted for the coast and well inland and that could go up) and numerous tornadoes, especially east of the storm's track, including inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
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Definitely not showing my wife this forecast trackAs expected, this system is slowly getting its act together and earlier today it was declared "Potential Tropical Cyclone 8" which means the NHC can start issuing more detailed forecasts and watches/warnings, even though a formal TS hasn't formed yet, but it is expected to form soon, so watches and warnings are already up for Yucatan and western Cuba.
The forecast track and intensity aren't too far off what the models were showing early today, with the NHC track showing a projected landfall on Thursday afternoon anywhere from about Pensacola to Tampa, with the center of the line being aimed at the Big Bend area (Apalachee Bay), about ~25 miles south of Tallahassee and with the storm currently forecast to be a Cat 3 hurricane with ~115 mph winds at landfall. Intensity forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, so this could be much weaker or much stronger, so anywhere along the FL Gulf Coast has to be very concerned about this storm.
Storm surge could be catastrophic for some areas with 6-10 feet of surge possible (if ~115 mph; could be less or more) and that's the case for areas east of the track in particular, so, for example, even if it misses Tampa by 50-100 miles, the Tampa region could still receive a major storm surge. As with most landfalling hurricanes, expect torrential, flooding rains (4-8" already being predicted for the coast and well inland and that could go up) and numerous tornadoes, especially east of the storm's track, including inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
That flight is 50/50 at best and more likely at 10-20% probability to occur IMO, since tropical storm force winds/gusts are likely in JV by late morning or early afternoon, along with likely bands of heavy rain. I'd say either fly out early in the morning (or Wednesday) if you can or drive. Also, here's the latest from the NWS in Jax; also, note that a landfall along the Big Bend in the 4-8 pm timeframe on Thursday means there will be the risk of isolated tornadoes to the east of the track, which will include JAX. Lastly, keep in mind that the storm hasn't even formed yet, so until it does, all of these projections have a decent amount of uncertainty associated with them, since we don't even know the real "starting point" for the models to initialize on, which leads to downstream model errors (chaos).
Thursday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=219&y=151&site=jax&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=219&map_y=151
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I am saying the season has been a bust so far probably because the Atlantic is too cold. Got it? LOL.
Did you check the data? Because the data I’ve seen says that you’re wrong.
If you had done the tiniest bit of research on this, you'd know that Atlantic Basin SST's are well above normal in most locations, so that has nothing to do with the very likely seasonal forecast bust. That's mostly due to unexpectedly high atmospheric stability and dry/dusty conditions aloft in the MDR (main development region in the Atlantic), along with low pressure systems coming off of Africa well further north than expected (which is why parts of the Sahara have had record rainfall). Read my earlier posts if you want to learn something about all this.
Don't care why, just care about the:
This thread isn't worth the good bust yet! Let's see how the next few weeks go.
If you don’t care why do you keep posting weird comments and then saying you don’t care over and over. That would indicate you do care.Don't care why, just care about the:
This thread isn't worth the good bust yet! Let's see how the next few weeks go.
He's a troll - the only thing he cares about is that people respond to his silly posts. I usually don't anymore or maybe one time.
I know I know. It’s the usual nonsense. I just wanted to see where it would go.
It's fun to troll people who root for hurricanes. Too bad the season is coming to an end soon. Looking forward to the winter.
Why do you insist on being an ass? The guys providing info. He likes it and it’s informative for everyone but the usual suspects who for whatever reason feel the need to piss on everything. It was very helpful for me personally this summer when traveling to Turks. The forecast was spot on and felt comfortable going.
Dont forget the winter has lots of snow storms that this board is helpful navigating. It’s one of my go to sources for relatively reliable weather info well ahead of when most folks start talking about it.
Thanks. Going to prepare to drive up on Weds, just in case.That flight is 50/50 at best and more likely at 10-20% probability to occur IMO, since tropical storm force winds/gusts are likely in JV by late morning or early afternoon, along with likely bands of heavy rain. I'd say either fly out early in the morning (or Wednesday) if you can or drive. Also, here's the latest from the NWS in Jax; also, note that a landfall along the Big Bend in the 4-8 pm timeframe on Thursday means there will be the risk of isolated tornadoes to the east of the track, which will include JAX. Lastly, keep in mind that the storm hasn't even formed yet, so until it does, all of these projections have a decent amount of uncertainty associated with them, since we don't even know the real "starting point" for the models to initialize on, which leads to downstream model errors (chaos).
Thursday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=219&y=151&site=jax&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=219&map_y=151
This thing looks like it's going to hit the 850 directly
First off, that sucks - Tally just got hit with a tornado a few months aga that caused a lot of damage
Second, we have Clemson coming into town next weekend - could cause issues with the stadium, tailgating, college town, etc.
First off, that sucks - Tally just got hit with a tornado a few months aga that caused a lot of damage
Second, we have Clemson coming into town next weekend - could cause issues with the stadium, tailgating, college town, etc.
Just overnighted in Tallahassee on the way from B’ham to Orlando. Had some nice burgers at the Midtown Caboose. Expecting lots of weather in Orlando perhaps tomorrow.
The Big Bend area just got hit by Cat 4 Idalia last year and this could hit the same area as a Cat 2-4; that kind of track at least puts Tallahassee on the weaker west side of the storm, but T could also still see a direct hit as it's within the cone. FL should be fine for Saturday games (unless there's a direct hit, which could leave a lot of damage), with areas from AK/MO to TN/NC likely getting heavy rains on Friday, but not as much on Saturday, so I doubt games will be cancelled anywhere on Saturday, as the storm is very likely to just be a remnant low with winds under 25 mph by Saturday morning (they don't cancel for 1-2" of rain usually).
Many expert mets predicting we have a named TS with the 11 am advisory, given better organization/more convection. Will see soon...
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