OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM

[DJ Spanky]

@RU848789 & @pmvon, so T2K was successful in hooking you in with this:

Massive bust of a season so far. Guess the Atlantic is just too cold.

He posted that at 8:47 yesterday morning, pmvon you took the bait 12 hours later and RU848789 you joined in shortly afterwards. And that led to 10+ posts of bickering. If you had ignored it, well, that post would have died in obscurity. He trolled and you both bit.

 

[ClassOf02]

@RU848789 & @pmvon, so T2K was successful in hooking you in with this:



He posted that at 8:47 yesterday morning, pmvon you took the bait 12 hours later and RU848789 you joined in shortly afterwards. And that led to 10+ posts of bickering. If you had ignored it, well, that post would have died in obscurity. He trolled and you both bit.

Or he could just not troll at all….novel concept for some, I know.

 

[T2Kplus20]

@RU848789 & @pmvon, so T2K was successful in hooking you in with this:



He posted that at 8:47 yesterday morning, pmvon you took the bait 12 hours later and RU848789 you joined in shortly afterwards. And that led to 10+ posts of bickering. If you had ignored it, well, that post would have died in obscurity. He trolled and you both bit.

They couldn't resist the climate change bait. 😁

 

[RU848789]

As expected, this system is slowly getting its act together and earlier today it was declared "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9" which means the NHC can start issuing more detailed forecasts and watches/warnings, even though a formal TS hasn't formed yet, but it is expected to form soon, so watches and warnings are already up for Yucatan and western Cuba.

The forecast track and intensity aren't too far off what the models were showing early today, with the NHC track showing a projected landfall on Thursday afternoon anywhere from about Pensacola to Tampa, with the center of the line being aimed at the Big Bend area (Apalachee Bay), about ~25 miles south of Tallahassee and with the storm currently forecast to be a Cat 3 hurricane with ~115 mph winds at landfall. Intensity forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, so this could be much weaker or much stronger, so anywhere along the FL Gulf Coast has to be very concerned about this storm.

Storm surge could be catastrophic for some areas with 6-10 feet of surge possible (if ~115 mph; could be less or more) and that's the case for areas east of the track in particular, so, for example, even if it misses Tampa by 50-100 miles, the Tampa region could still receive a major storm surge. As with most landfalling hurricanes, expect torrential, flooding rains (4-8" already being predicted for the coast and well inland and that could go up) and numerous tornadoes, especially east of the storm's track, including inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

As expected we finally have TS Helene with winds of 45 mph and it looks like it's starting to organize and strengthen, although strengthening is expected to be slow, today and tomorrow early, while the storm negotiates the Yucatan Channel and interacts with land (Mexico/Cuba), but many models are showing fairly rapid intensification later tomorrow and most of Thursday, before landfall. Landfall is currently forecast to be as a Cat 3 hurricane with ~115 mph winds Thursday evening and is still likely to be somewhere between Panama City and Tampa, with the Big Bend area between about Apalachicola and Steinhatchee being the most likely landfall location, almost exactly where Idalia hit last year as a Cat 4 storm.

The track forecast shifted maybe 10-20 miles west with this forecast, which is a fairly minor shift, as the forecast track has barely wavered since tracking started. The intensity forecast, as usual, is far more uncertain with models showing everything from a strong TS to a Cat 4 hurricane, with most showing a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane. Conditions are very favorable for significant intensification once the storm makes it into the GOM early tomorrow, given low wind shear and abnormally high oceanic heat content (high sea surface temps in the mid/upper 80s) along its track in the GOM.

All the usual risks apply, from major to catastrophic wind damage and storm surge (10-15' near and east of the track for the Big Bend and even 5-8' as far east as Tampa Bay, on the strong side of the storm), widespread torrential rainfall and flooding of 4-8" and locally 8-12", including well inland, and numerous small, but potentially destructive tornadoes along and east of the track. Widespread tree/power line damage should be expected, causing widespread power outages, even well inland. Note that this storm will dissipate rather quickly, however, as it heads NW towards KY/IN by Saturday morning with winds down to <25 mph; with this kind of track, impacts on our area will be about nil.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154152.shtml?spanish_key_messages#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-storm-hurricane-helene-forecast-gulf-florida

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

[RU848789]

@RU848789 & @pmvon, so T2K was successful in hooking you in with this:



He posted that at 8:47 yesterday morning, pmvon you took the bait 12 hours later and RU848789 you joined in shortly afterwards. And that led to 10+ posts of bickering. If you had ignored it, well, that post would have died in obscurity. He trolled and you both bit.

I responded once, as I said I normally do now and yet you felt compelled to criticize us, further extending the bickering after ~12 hours of the trolling being ignored, rather than criticizing the troll and maybe even moderating the thread. I think you have your priorities skewed, but the mods generally do, when it comes to my posts here. I'm used to it though.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Just overnighted in Tallahassee on the way from B’ham to Orlando. Had some nice burgers at the Midtown Caboose. Expecting lots of weather in Orlando perhaps tomorrow.

Love Midtown Caboose!

 

[T2Kplus20]

I responded once, as I said I normally do now and yet you felt compelled to criticize us, further extending the bickering after ~12 hours of the trolling being ignored, rather than criticizing the troll and maybe even moderating the thread. I think you have your priorities skewed, but the mods generally do, when it comes to my posts here. I'm used to it though.

^^^ Crybaby.

 

[pmvon]

@RU848789 & @pmvon, so T2K was successful in hooking you in with this:



He posted that at 8:47 yesterday morning, pmvon you took the bait 12 hours later and RU848789 you joined in shortly afterwards. And that led to 10+ posts of bickering. If you had ignored it, well, that post would have died in obscurity. He trolled and you both bit.

What are you 8 years old?

 

[DJ Spanky]

What are you 8 years old?

Not at all and I don't get your point.

 

[T2Kplus20]

What are you 8 years old?

Have some respect for the authority here!

 

[ClassOf02]

Not at all and I don't get your point.

I think the point is why blame the guy responding to the troll rather than the actual troll?

 

[Caliknight]

NimberSan screaming for attention as usual. Wash rinse repeat

 

[DJ Spanky]

I think the point is why blame the guy responding to the troll rather than the actual troll?

This is a message board amongst many message boards, and people troll all the time. I've been moderating message boards for at least 25 years now, people troll all the time, and the best way to deal with them is ignore them. I've had this conversation many times, and replying and bickering is the perfect way to encourage them.

 

[pmvon]

I think the point is why blame the guy responding to the troll rather than the actual troll?

It’s like there’s a drunk guy at a party, harassing the girls and ruining the evening for everyone else. I call an Uber to take him home and we get into an argument but he leaves so the rest of us can have fun. In that scenario, spank calls me the bad guy.

 

[pmvon]

This is a message board amongst many message boards, and people troll all the time. I've been moderating message boards for at least 25 years now, people troll all the time, and the best way to deal with them is ignore them. I've had this conversation many times, and replying and bickering is the perfect way to encourage them.

Maybe you should moderate the trolls.

 

[T2Kplus20]

This is a message board amongst many message boards, and people troll all the time. I've been moderating message boards for at least 25 years now, people troll all the time, and the best way to deal with them is ignore them. I've had this conversation many times, and replying and bickering is the perfect way to encourage them.

+1
A few weeks ago, someone tried to troll me on the Stock/Investment thread. Shut that down quickly with the cold shoulder. Just takes a little will power. You can't troll the king! :)

 

[ClassOf02]

This is a message board amongst many message boards, and people troll all the time. I've been moderating message boards for at least 25 years now, people troll all the time, and the best way to deal with them is ignore them. I've had this conversation many times, and replying and bickering is the perfect way to encourage them.

I agree there will always be trolls, but isn’t the point of moderation to attempt to control them? This one in particular has no purpose on this board other than to troll, and has done so for years. Sort of weird that it seems to be encouraged.

 

[RU848789]

One very important piece of advice for anyone in the path of this storm. The steering currents (low to the west of the track and high to the east) forecast is high confidence, meaning the storm will accelerate rapidly after about tomorrow evening to about 25 mph, which means that if we get a rapid intensification scenario on Thursday to, say a strong Cat 4, people in the path of the storm will only have 4-8 hours to maybe change their plans and evacute, which is very unusual - most rapidly intensifying storms near landfall are not moving that fast.

One other thing worth noting is that the high forward speed of the hurricane means that hurricane and TS force winds will likely extend further inland than usual, such that if we have a 115 mph hurricane at landfall, hurricane force winds will likely make it well into Georgia and TS force winds will likely make all the way inland to Atlanta.

 

[RUtix4me]

So how is my golf looking through Friday. I am in coral gables.

 

[RU848789]

So how is my golf looking through Friday. I am in coral gables.

Just the usual SE FL weather in Sept - hot, humid AF, some sun, but some hellacious showers...

 

[RedTeam1994]

I agree there will always be trolls, but isn’t the point of moderation to attempt to control them? This one in particular has no purpose on this board other than to troll, and has done so for years. Sort of weird that it seems to be encouraged.

There are a few on here that have been trolling for years. It’s all they do. Yet nothing happens. It literally my only complaint about this board.

There are a few others that troll on occasion (or do topic-related trolling like the years-long trolling of #s by a few). Shouldn’t there be a “time out” for such posters?

I’ve never understood the inaction

 

[Caliknight]

So how is my golf looking through Friday. I am in coral gables.

I can't imagine your golf game ever looking good.

 

[RU848789]

Helene up to 60 mph and forecast to now reach 120 mph before landfall Thursday evening along the Big Bend. NHC concerned this storm could strengthen more than forecast

 

[BigEastPhil]

Helene up to 60 mph and forecast to now reach 120 mph before landfall Thursday evening along the Big Bend. NHC concerned this storm could strengthen more than forecast

Cat 4 possibility ? Yikes.

 

[RU848789]

Cat 4 possibility ? Yikes.

Strong Cat 3/weak Cat 4, i.e., 125-135 mph, is certainly a possibility (but so is 105-115 mph, i.e., strong cat 2/weak cat 3). Very difficult to predict intensity this far in advance. Could easily have a hurricane on our hands by the 5 am advisory.

 

[RU848789]

Helene is up to 70 mph this morning and will likely be a hurricane by 11 am, as the storm is becoming better organized with regard to symmetry of convection around the center and outflow at the periphery of the storm. No major forecast track or intensity changes with the 5 am update (still ~120 mph at landfall in the FL Big Bend area Thursday evening).

 

[RU848789]

As expected we finally have TS Helene with winds of 45 mph and it looks like it's starting to organize and strengthen, although strengthening is expected to be slow, today and tomorrow early, while the storm negotiates the Yucatan Channel and interacts with land (Mexico/Cuba), but many models are showing fairly rapid intensification later tomorrow and most of Thursday, before landfall. Landfall is currently forecast to be as a Cat 3 hurricane with ~115 mph winds Thursday evening and is still likely to be somewhere between Panama City and Tampa, with the Big Bend area between about Apalachicola and Steinhatchee being the most likely landfall location, almost exactly where Idalia hit last year as a Cat 4 storm.

The track forecast shifted maybe 10-20 miles west with this forecast, which is a fairly minor shift, as the forecast track has barely wavered since tracking started. The intensity forecast, as usual, is far more uncertain with models showing everything from a strong TS to a Cat 4 hurricane, with most showing a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane. Conditions are very favorable for significant intensification once the storm makes it into the GOM early tomorrow, given low wind shear and abnormally high oceanic heat content (high sea surface temps in the mid/upper 80s) along its track in the GOM.

All the usual risks apply, from major to catastrophic wind damage and storm surge (10-15' near and east of the track for the Big Bend and even 5-8' as far east as Tampa Bay, on the strong side of the storm), widespread torrential rainfall and flooding of 4-8" and locally 8-12", including well inland, and numerous small, but potentially destructive tornadoes along and east of the track. Widespread tree/power line damage should be expected, causing widespread power outages, even well inland. Note that this storm will dissipate rather quickly, however, as it heads NW towards KY/IN by Saturday morning with winds down to <25 mph; with this kind of track, impacts on our area will be about nil.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154152.shtml?spanish_key_messages#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-storm-hurricane-helene-forecast-gulf-florida

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Helene is now a hurricane and is about to become a dangerous life-threatening storm.

We now have hurricane Helene with 80 mph winds and the storm is looking much healthier and poised to strengthen rapidly once the storm clears the Yucatan Channel tomorrow morning. Storm is now forecast to even be a bit stronger at landfall with winds up about ~125 mph (strong Cat 3, so Cat 4 is in play here) at landfall in the FL Big Bend area Thursday evening (track center has shifted a bit west towards an area between Apalachicola and Apalachee Bay) with catastrophic wind damage likely at the coast near and east of landfall, as well as catastrophic storm surge of 10-15' for the Big Bend area and even a substantial storm surge of 5-8' for Tampa Bay.

Also, since it'll be moving quite quickly for a hurricane (~25 mph), hurricane force winds will likely make it further inland than usual before the storm weakens, which does not bode well for inland FL and southern and even central GA, where we'll likely see widespread downed trees/power lines and power outages. On top of that, widespread 4-8" rainfall with some areas getting 8-12" is expected for large areas of FL/GA/AL/SC and even up into NC/TN/KY/VA, especially for the Appalachians, where there could be some peak rainfalls over a foot and major flooding due to orographic lift. The storm should dissipate quickly by Sat am in KY.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 86.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

[MGSA99]

We just had a nice preview of things to come in Greenville last night. Trees were toppled from lightning and wind, houses and vehicles got smashed and the place looks like a.war zone. 10k without power.

 

[RU848789]

We just had a nice preview of things to come in Greenville last night. Trees were toppled from lightning and wind, houses and vehicles got smashed and the place looks like a.war zone. 10k without power.

And that was really just wind from t-storms; you're likely to get some high winds and 8" or more of rain on top of that, plus isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out even as far north as Greenville. Here's the discussion for your area from the NWS - kind of a scary situation for your area. Take care.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1007 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 am Wednesday: ***MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING***

Predecessor rainfall event will be ongoing at the start of the short
term, and isolated flash flooding will likely already be developing
in areas along and near the Blue Ridge escarpment. With inverted
surface trough interacting with fire hose of moisture extending
north from T.C. Helene being the primary impetus for the PRE event,
rainfall rates could diminish somewhat during the afternoon as the
surface trough begins shifting west. However, any relief will be
brief as SE upslope flow into the escarpment will be relentless, and
the outer rain bands from Helene will will likely begin invading the
CWA by evening as the cyclone begins its fairly quick trek through
Georgia. The heaviest rainfall rates of the entire event will occur
within tropical bands Thu night into Fri morning on top of already
saturated soils across the southern Appalachians and adjacent
foothills. Flash flooding is expected to become widespread in these
areas during this time frame, with locally severe and life-
threatening flooding likely. By the time the rainfall finally tapers
off Friday morning, 48-hour storm totals are expected to range from
5-9 inches across much of the area west of ~U.S. Highway 321, with
as much as 15 inches expected on southeastern-facing slopes in the
vicinity of the Blue Ridge. At least moderate flooding is also
likely to develop on some main stem rivers. (Amounts of 3-5 inches
are expected for areas to the east). It`s also looking more likely
that we will see numerous landslides in the mountainous counties
encompassing the Blue Ridge escarpment...with a couple of large,
damaging debris flows/slope failures possible.

Helene will likely be of tropical storm strength as far north as
central Georgia, so wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph remain a distinct
possibility Thu night/early Fri across far western portions of the
CWA (i.e., near the GA/SC border & southwest NC)...as well as in the
high elevations. Most of the remainder of the area should see gusts
in the 35 to 45 mph range. No decisions will be made on this shift
regarding wind headlines. It should be stated that even if winds
don`t quite reach those magnitudes, numerous to widespread downed
trees will still be a strong possibility across the western half of
the area due to the saturated soil conditions. In terms of the
tornado threat...can`t rule out an isolated spin-up across southern
portions of the area on Thursday...especially with any initial
rainbands punching into the area late in the day. However, any
sbCAPE is expected to diminish quickly as the sun sets and E/NE flow
developing north of Helene helps to stabilize the atmosphere.
Quickly improving conditions are expected throughout Fri morning
into the afternoon, although ongoing flooding will likely continue
well into the afternoon, while main stem river flooding may continue
for several days.

 

[RUInsanity]

This is a message board amongst many message boards, and people troll all the time. I've been moderating message boards for at least 25 years now, people troll all the time, and the best way to deal with them is ignore them. I've had this conversation many times, and replying and bickering is the perfect way to encourage them.

Interesting take. Except of course for the fact that you have responded over and over again to the guy who keeps trolling you with the reaction button via thousands of screen names.

Why should straight forward posters be chastized in a thread by a mod for responding to a troll? As a mod don't you have a greater level of authority to curb trolling by warnings, thread banning and / or time outs?

 

[DJ Spanky]

Interesting take. Except of course for the fact that you have responded over and over again to the guy who keeps trolling you with the reaction button via thousands of screen names.

Why should straight forward posters be chastized in a thread by a mod for responding to a troll? As a mod don't you have a greater level of authority to curb trolling by warnings, thread banning and / or time outs?

What an absolutely wrong take. First, I don't respond to that troll, but I do enjoy mocking it in certain threads for its incredible obsession. Second, that troll has been banned under hundreds of names going back to at least 2016. Third, that troll grinds the same axe over and over, usually harping on attendance like it's a personal affront to it. Fourth, in continually grinding its proverbial axe, it hijacks and disrupts threads over and over again.

 

[RUtix4me]

Getting a bit breezy, hopefully better Friday when I play golden palm.

 

[RUtix4me]

Getting some good gusts and rain started here in Coral Gables.

 

[RU848789]

The NHC has confirmed my fears of Helene strengthening to Cat 4 status, with the 5 pm update, which has Helene becoming a Cat 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds prior to landfall Thursday evening, somewhere between Apalachicola and Alligator Island along the Big Bend, which puts Tallahassee right in the cross hairs of a direct hit of a storm which will have only weakened a bit as it's only 35 miles from the coast to TH. This is a seriously dangerous storm even if it's just a Cat 3, but a Cat 4 makes it even moreso.

Having said all that, Helene hasn't strengthened in the past few hours and is seeing more dry air entrainment than expected and a few of the latest models "only" show a Cat 2 max, so maybe FL et al will catch a break and the storm will underperform. As I've said dozens of times, intensity forecasts are extraordinarily difficult to get right.

Edit: as of the 11 pm NHC advisory, they're not backing down on the Cat 4 forecast and haven't really changed the projected track either, with landfall still likely between Apalachicola and Alligator Island tomorrow evening. Going to be a long day and night tomorrow for folks in FL and inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

[BigEastPhil]

The NHC has confirmed my fears of Helene strengthening to Cat 4 status, with the 5 pm update, which has Helene becoming a Cat 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds prior to landfall Thursday evening, somewhere between Apalachicola and Alligator Island along the Big Bend, which puts Tallahassee right in the cross hairs of a direct hit of a storm which will have only weakened a bit as it's only 35 miles from the coast to TH. This is a seriously dangerous storm even if it's just a Cat 3, but a Cat 4 makes it even moreso.

Having said all that, Helene hasn't strengthened in the past few hours and is seeing more dry air entrainment than expected and a few of the latest models "only" show a Cat 2 max, so maybe FL et al will catch a break and the storm will underperform. As I've said dozens of times, intensity forecasts are extraordinarily difficult to get right.

What is the status for Gainesville? Tropical storm warning given it’s inland and away from projected path ?

 

[RU848789]

What is the status for Gainesville? Tropical storm warning given it’s inland and away from projected path ?

TS warning is in place with 50-60 mph wind gusts likely, so some wind damage/downed trees is likely; however, it's far enough east that rainfall should only be 2-4"; isolated tornadoes are possible too. Not a huge deal for most, but still some risk.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsi...cane+Local+Statement&lat=29.7417&lon=-82.3469

 

[RUfromNJ]

Didn’t want to gamble on flights, so I left St. Augustine at 6:12a and got to my in in-laws in Peapack, NJ at 9:32p tonight. Not a bad drive. I did notice several convoys of Asplundh and other tree service trucks heading south on 95 in Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Good luck to folks along the Panhandle and elsewhere in the SE. This storm looks nasty.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

This giving is a monster
Thoughts & prayers for those in the impact zone

 

[RU848789]

The NHC has confirmed my fears of Helene strengthening to Cat 4 status, with the 5 pm update, which has Helene becoming a Cat 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds prior to landfall Thursday evening, somewhere between Apalachicola and Alligator Island along the Big Bend, which puts Tallahassee right in the cross hairs of a direct hit of a storm which will have only weakened a bit as it's only 35 miles from the coast to TH. This is a seriously dangerous storm even if it's just a Cat 3, but a Cat 4 makes it even moreso.

Having said all that, Helene hasn't strengthened in the past few hours and is seeing more dry air entrainment than expected and a few of the latest models "only" show a Cat 2 max, so maybe FL et al will catch a break and the storm will underperform. As I've said dozens of times, intensity forecasts are extraordinarily difficult to get right.

Edit: as of the 11 pm NHC advisory, they're not backing down on the Cat 4 forecast and haven't really changed the projected track either, with landfall still likely between Apalachicola and Alligator Island tomorrow evening. Going to be a long day and night tomorrow for folks in FL and inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

A bit of good news for those in the path of Helene is that the NHC has downgraded the amount of likely strengthening expected, with Helene now forecast to have Cat 3 115 mph winds by about 2 pm today and probably about 120 mph winds (still cat 3 vs. the 130 mph winds forecast at landfall last night) at landfall in the FL Big Bend area late this evening, with the center of the track moving about 15-20 miles east of 11 pm last (which was right over about Alligator Point and then inland to Tallahassee) to about the "top" of Apalachee Bay, but the cone still includes landfall anywhere from about Apalachicola to Steinhatchee.

As I mentioned above, though, intensity forecasts are still very difficult to get exactly right, so a Cat 4 still isn't out of the question and neither is a Cat 2 at landfall. It's also worth noting that a number of the models are still leaning a bit east of the current track, perhaps bringing the center of the storm ashore about 10-15 miles east of the top of Apalachee Bay. The move east from 11 pm last night is great news for Tallahassee if it holds, as that would put the city 10-15 miles to the west of the track on the somewhat weaker side of the storm. This would also mean that the worst conditions at the coast and just inland would be in the sparsely populated Big Bend area.

Regardless of exact landfall location, this is still a very dangerous storm expected to bring likely catastrophic wind damage within 20-30 miles of the track (including even up to 100 miles inland along/east of the track in GA where hurricane warnings are up, given the unusually fast movement of this hurricane) and will even bring potentially damaging tropical storm force winds up to 300 miles east of the storm's track, as this is a huge storm (so all of FL and most of GA and even much of SC are under TS warnings), plus it will bring catastrophic storm surge of 10-15'+ (especially east of the track for all of the Big Bend area and even 5-8' as far east as Tampa Bay), as well as torrential flooding rains of 4-8" and areas of 8-12"+ up through the southern Apps and isolated tornadoes east of the track. Some of the inland flooding, especially in areas of GA/SC/NC near/in the Apps which have had 6"+ of rain the past few days could be catastrophic.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ne-helene-forecast-landfall-florida-southeast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 24.2N 86.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 26.8N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 31.6N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/1800Z 36.1N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1800Z 36.3N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0600Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED