OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM

[RUinPinehurst]

Up top here above the town of Boone NC, we've had an "interesting" weather pattern, well in advance of Helene. Yesterday, heavy rain on and off, wind, thunderstorms, a couple tornados and warnings, etc. Haven't lost power, yet, although reports of outages in surrounding areas.

Heavy rains and flooding expected today and tomorrow in NC's High Country, threats of slides and road washouts, downed trees, thunderstorms, tornados, etc. making for quite an ongoing weather experience.

We're still planning on driving east to Raleigh tomorrow for a two-day music festival, as late Friday there at least is looking ok. Saturday looking fantastic. Getting there could be a challenge. TBD.

 

[coloradoknight]

Up top here above the town of Boone NC, we've had an "interesting" weather pattern, well in advance of Helene. Yesterday, heavy rain on and off, wind, thunderstorms, a couple tornados and warnings, etc. Haven't lost power, yet, although reports of outages in surrounding areas.

Heavy rains and flooding expected today and tomorrow in NC's High Country, threats of slides and road washouts, downed trees, thunderstorms, tornados, etc. making for quite an ongoing weather experience.

We're still planning on driving east to Raleigh tomorrow for a two-day music festival, as late Friday there at least is looking ok. Saturday looking fantastic. Getting there could be a challenge. TBD.

Been getting crushed with rain in Asheville as well. We had 4 inches of rain in about a 3 hour period and it really hasn't stopped since.

You going to IBMA? We have gone a few times including last year. Canceled our trip 2 or 3 years ago because of a hurricane and when moved everything inside.

 

[RU848789]

Helene now up to 100 mph winds (Cat 2) as of the 8 am update from the NHC with pressures around 960 mbar, which is normally what is seen with a Cat 3 storm - it's likely that the very large storm size has resulted in lower than usual winds near the center and greater than normal winds well away from the center.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Been getting crushed with rain in Asheville as well. We had 4 inches of rain in about a 3 hour period and it really hasn't stopped since.

You going to IBMA? We have gone a few times including last year. Canceled our trip 2 or 3 years ago because of a hurricane and when moved everything inside.

IBMA, yes. We get together with a group of friends from the Triangle every year. Next year it moves to Chattanooga TN, which is pretty much equidistant for us. So we'll give it a go next September.

Stay safe in Asheville. Saw clips of flooding in Biltmore Village and a raging French Broad River. Gov Cooper to address preparations at 11 am. Power companies from around the Carolinas and beyond are staging equipment in anticipation.

 

[coloradoknight]

IBMA, yes. We get together with a group of friends from the Triangle every year. Next year it moves to Chattanooga TN, which is pretty much equidistant for us. So we'll give it a go next September.

Stay safe in Asheville. Saw clips of flooding in Biltmore Village and a raging French Broad River. Gov Cooper to address preparations at 11 am. Power companies from around the Carolinas and beyond are staging equipment in anticipation.

8 inches of rain in the Biltmore Village area so far and we are still waiting for the storm to hit. Enjoy the festival and I may see you in Chattanooga next year. We have tickets for Old Crow at Western on Saturday. Safe Travels!

 

[rubaseball78]

We are shutting our Tampa, Cumming, Valdosta and Stateboro. Savannah remains open with an eye on any change in path towards the coast. Lost operating income for those 4 plants exceeds $300,000 per day.

 

[RU848789]

8 inches of rain in the Biltmore Village area so far and we are still waiting for the storm to hit. Enjoy the festival and I may see you in Chattanooga next year. We have tickets for Old Crow at Western on Saturday. Safe Travels!

Damn, 8"+ on top of 8" so far in the Asheville area is not good. Stay safe...

 

[coloradoknight]

Damn, 8"+ on top of 8" so far in the Asheville area is not good. Stay safe...

It is going to be an interesting 30 hours or so. Thanks

 

[RU848789]

Going to be really interesting to see what the NHC does with the forecast track at 11 am, as every global model and most hurricane models show the track being 10-25 miles east of the NHC track, which goes over Alligator Island and Tallahassee. A track east of Tallahassee could greatly reduce wind damage and rainfall for that city, given the west side of the storm is somewhat weaker. TWC mets have been harping on this most of the morning. We'll see shortly.

 

[RocktheRac]

A friend is flying from Newark to Atlanta Sunday afternoon for a funeral on Monday. He was wondering if he will encounter any issues and should cancel his flight? Thanks #s

 

[RU848789]

For those keeping score, TS Isaac was born last night in the Central Atlantic and is forecast to become a minimal hurricane over the next few days as it heads most east, north of the Azores, before dissipating. 9th named storm of the season, which is still well below average for the whole season (14 is average). In addition, the NHC says TS Joyce is likely to form in the eastern Atlantic today or tomorrow, but it's not a threat to land anywhere.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Talking with my 2 colleagues down in SC, one of them has already had a power outage. They're battening down the hatches as they expect it to get worse.

 

[RU848789]

11 am NHC advisory has Helene at 105 mph and forecast to be around 120 mph (solid Cat 3) at landfall late this evening. In response to the models, presumably, they also moved the center of the track east about 15-20 miles (vs. 11 pm last night, the last graphic I had posted) with landfall right in Apalachee Bay, meaning the track would go about 15-20 miles east of Tallahassee, which is big for them, as that's the weaker side of the storm. Gotta run, vacation calls...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 25.5N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 33.9N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 36.4N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z 36.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/0000Z 36.3N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1200Z 36.2N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

[RU848789]

Helene up to 110 mph with more strengthening forecast, so Cat 3 is almost certain and Cat 4 (130 mph or more) is possible. Track forecast was not updated, although most of the 12Z global models show landfall a bit east (15-20 miles more) than the NHC forecast, while the hurricane models have similar tracks to the NHC track. Will be interesting to see where the landfall ends up.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

 

[RU848789]

Wow, another NHC update at 3 pm showing Helene is now a Cat 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and is strengthening still with 6-8 hours more time to get stronger before landfall.

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa
Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a
gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

 

[coloradoknight]

NOAA just issued a warning for Asheville saying the French Broad River is expecting it 2nd highest crest ever. The only other time it was worse was 1916. Wish us WNC folks good luck. We might need some.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Really hoping this thing swings east

 

[RU848789]

This is sobering from the NWS in SC basically saying this could be the worst flooding event in the history of much of the southern Apps region, particularly NW SC and W NC.



https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=gsp&issuedby=GSP&product=PNS

Public Information Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE...

This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen
in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record
flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916
in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to
be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the
mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South
Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with
everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously
through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life-
threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the
alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission
of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the
folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot
stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation
orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm
shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location.

Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of
water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes.
Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of
washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas
prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and be prepared
to act.

 

[coloradoknight]

This is sobering from the NWS in SC basically saying this could be the worst flooding event in the history of much of the southern Apps region, particularly NW SC and W NC.

View embedded media

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=gsp&issuedby=GSP&product=PNS

Public Information Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE...

This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen
in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record
flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916
in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to
be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the
mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South
Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with
everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously
through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life-
threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the
alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission
of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the
folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot
stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation
orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm
shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location.

Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of
water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes.
Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of
washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas
prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and be prepared
to act.

In the 20 years I have lived here, they have never issued a warning like this one. It is going to be a long sleepless night.

 

[RU848789]

In the 20 years I have lived here, they have never issued a warning like this one. It is going to be a long sleepless night.

Yeah, I can imagine. Felt like that during Sandy and Ida's remnants when they came through and flooded everyone out. Stay safe and good luck. Are you in an area that needs to evacuate? I've heard they've started some evacuations.

 

[RU848789]

A bit of good news for those in the path of Helene is that the NHC has downgraded the amount of likely strengthening expected, with Helene now forecast to have Cat 3 115 mph winds by about 2 pm today and probably about 120 mph winds (still cat 3 vs. the 130 mph winds forecast at landfall last night) at landfall in the FL Big Bend area late this evening, with the center of the track moving about 15-20 miles east of 11 pm last (which was right over about Alligator Point and then inland to Tallahassee) to about the "top" of Apalachee Bay, but the cone still includes landfall anywhere from about Apalachicola to Steinhatchee.

As I mentioned above, though, intensity forecasts are still very difficult to get exactly right, so a Cat 4 still isn't out of the question and neither is a Cat 2 at landfall. It's also worth noting that a number of the models are still leaning a bit east of the current track, perhaps bringing the center of the storm ashore about 10-15 miles east of the top of Apalachee Bay. The move east from 11 pm last night is great news for Tallahassee if it holds, as that would put the city 10-15 miles to the west of the track on the somewhat weaker side of the storm. This would also mean that the worst conditions at the coast and just inland would be in the sparsely populated Big Bend area.

Regardless of exact landfall location, this is still a very dangerous storm expected to bring likely catastrophic wind damage within 20-30 miles of the track (including even up to 100 miles inland along/east of the track in GA where hurricane warnings are up, given the unusually fast movement of this hurricane) and will even bring potentially damaging tropical storm force winds up to 300 miles east of the storm's track, as this is a huge storm (so all of FL and most of GA and even much of SC are under TS warnings), plus it will bring catastrophic storm surge of 10-15'+ (especially east of the track for all of the Big Bend area and even 5-8' as far east as Tampa Bay), as well as torrential flooding rains of 4-8" and areas of 8-12"+ up through the southern Apps and isolated tornadoes east of the track. Some of the inland flooding, especially in areas of GA/SC/NC near/in the Apps which have had 6"+ of rain the past few days could be catastrophic.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ne-helene-forecast-landfall-florida-southeast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 24.2N 86.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 26.8N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 31.6N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/1800Z 36.1N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1800Z 36.3N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0600Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Again, only have a few, as we're heading out for the evening, but wanted to post the 5 pm NHC advisory highlights. Helene has continued to strengthen and is now a 125 mph hurricane that should make landfall in about 6-8 hours as probably a 130 mph Cat 4 hurricane (and up to 140 mph is still possible, as many mets have been discussing on other forums), as the NHC is forecasting a little bit more strengthening before landfall, which could really exacerbate impacts, along with the fast forward speed of the storm (~23 mph). The forecasted landfall is still in the Apalachee Bay area, near the "top" of that bay (the Flint Rock Wildlife Mgmt Area), which fortunately means Helene should pass ~20 miles east of Tallahassee and be on the weak side.

All of the usual risks/impacts remain similar to what was posted in the quoted post above with regard to storm surge at the coast along and east of the track, winds for coastal areas and well inland into GA, flooding rains from FL to the Apps (where flooding likely will be catastrophic in NW SC and W NC), and isolated tornadoes along and east of the track. Good luck to all in harm's way from FL through GA/AL/SC/NC/TN/VA/KY.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Weather picking up now above Boone, with winds set to pick up significantly very soon, and rain. Lots of concern down the mountain in town, particularly with App State in session. They cancelled everything except Saturday's football game vs Liberty. That said, I can't see folks traveling here for that match up. But .....

Here are a couple "live" cams from town and campus:

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/app-state-sanford-mall/

 

[RU848789]

Well we now have a Cat 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds and about 4 hours to go before landfall, so could still get to 135-140 mph before landfall along Apalachee Bay.

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HELENE HEADING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel near the entrance of Tampa
Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and
a wind gust of 71 mph (115 km/h).

Tropical storm conditions are approaching the coastline of
Florida's Big Bend. A Weatherflow station at St. George Island
recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

 

[RU848789]

For folks near/in Asheville, this has to be one of the scariest graphics I've ever seen. The French Broad River (river that flows through Asheville NC) is forecast to crest more than 10 feet above the previous record at Fletcher, which is in the southern part of the metro. That is going to result in catastrophic flooding for many, which is why the NWS in Greenville/Spartanburg put out that grim warning for the NW SC/W NC region earlier.

 

[Caliknight]

Wooohoooo!

 

[RU848789]

Well we now have a Cat 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds and about 4 hours to go before landfall, so could still get to 135-140 mph before landfall along Apalachee Bay.

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HELENE HEADING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel near the entrance of Tampa
Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and
a wind gust of 71 mph (115 km/h).

Tropical storm conditions are approaching the coastline of
Florida's Big Bend. A Weatherflow station at St. George Island
recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Unfortunately, Helene has strengthened to a strong Cat 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds/941 mbar as per the NHC update below and is still on track to strike Apalachee Bay in less than 90 minutes; as a result the NWS-Tallahassee has issued an Extreme Wind Warning for most of the Big Bend counties in FL (but not TLH, which is just west of that warning). Tallahassee will be on the weaker west side of the storm, but TLH looks like it will get hit with the western eyewall, which will likely bring wind gusts well over 100 mph.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TAE&wwa=extreme wind warning

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
900 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS ITS EYE APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...900 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located on
Cedar Key recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and
a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge located at Clearwater Beach
recently reported a water level of 5.07 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

 

[RU848789]

This is what the Skyway Bridge in Tampa looked like 5 hours ago right before it was closed. Tampa reportedly has broken the storm surge record set with Idalia, too. And Tampa isn't even that close to the storm. And Savannah, GA just had a tornado, hundreds of miles from Helene. A long night and day ahead...

 

[RU848789]

We have landfall of Helene, a Cat 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, about 10 miles WSW of Perry just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River in the Big Bend area. Long way to go still, especially for those inland.

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene has made landfall
as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region at about
11:10 PM EDT (0310 UTC) just east of the mouth of the Aucilla
River. This is about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry,
Florida. Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h) and
the minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1110 PM EDT...0310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 83.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

 

[RU848789]

Helene is barreling through Georgia now after being downgraded to a 70 mph tropical storm at 5 am and it is still bringing high winds, heavy rains, flooding, downed trees/power outages and isolated tornadoes for much of GA/SC/NC/AL/TN/VA/KY. Unfortunately, 4 deaths are now attributed to the storm and nearly 3 million are without power, mostly in FL/GA/SC for now, but that number will continue to grow. Record storm surges were recorded in Tampa, Clearwater, Cedar Key and likely the Big Bend area near landfall, but there haven't been any reliable reports from that sparsely populated area yet on that. The flooding in W NC/NW SC especially near the Apps is severe and likely to shatter records. The CNN link below has a good summary of impacts so far. Fortunately, the storm will weaken quickly over the next 6 hours as it reaches TN by early afternoon.

https://www.cnn.com/weather/live-news/hurricane-helene-florida-georgia-09-27-24/index.html

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Winds roaring. Sheets of heavy rain pounding us here above Boone NC. Power went out 7:30 am. Hoping the storm turns westward soon. Supposedly, per forecasts, it'll pass by early afternoon.

 

[RU848789]

More footage, from Ceder Key with catastrophic damage to houses from record storm surge - and this was ~70 miles SSE of landfall. Can only imagine the damage to the Big Bend area. Up to 3.7MM without power in the SE US.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

 

[gmay8]

Winds roaring. Sheets of heavy rain pounding us here above Boone NC. Power went out 7:30 am. Hoping the storm turns westward soon. Supposedly, per forecasts, it'll pass by early afternoon.

How you making out in Boone? Fox Weather has some cameras in Boone, hope the flooding isn't affecting you too badly

 

[RUinPinehurst]

How you making out in Boone? Fox Weather has some cameras in Boone, hope the flooding isn't affecting you too badly

Finally letting up here. Still raining and windy, but no where near as intense as it's been. Conditions will continue to improve. But lots of significant flooding below and impassable roads. Power has been out since early morning. We have a few miles of private gravel roads in our mountain top community. Looking to head out and assess damage within the hour, to see if we have access to the main road. One report of a small mudslide potentially blocking the main paved road into town.

 

[RU848789]

Finally letting up here. Still raining and windy, but no where near as intense as it's been. Conditions will continue to improve. But lots of significant flooding below and impassable roads. Power has been out since early morning. We have a few miles of private gravel roads in our mountain top community. Looking to head out and assess damage within the hour, to see if we have access to the main road. One report of a small mudslide potentially blocking the main paved road into town.

Good to hear you're all intact and hopefully the flooding isn't too severe and you can get out soon.

 

[Postman_1]

 

[rubaseball78]

I saw our initial damaged estimates this morning. For Florida, 28,000 roofs needing repair and another 2000 needing complete replacement. Expecting more that 40,000 additional when you factor in the storm moving through the US to the Ohio area.

 

[RU848789]

Countless emergencies, floods, road closures (including I-40 in W NC) in NW SC and W NC; the AmWx page below has a bunch of links to stories. In W NC they've basically said nobody should be on the roads; there's also a few imminent dam failures in NC. Not good.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61111-major-hurricane-helene/page/70/

 

[Tango Two]

I-40 at the North Carolina / Tennessee border is washed out. The damage in the Carolina's and Tennessee is unprecedented and will take years to rebuild as much of it is in the mountainous areas. Dozens are confirmed dead so far with many homes washed away.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Took a ride around our community on the ATV earlier. Significant damage to our infrastructure. Still active storm water moving about and rain falling. Roads heavily rutted. Trees down, some resting on power lines, a few across the roads making them impassable. Our pond is overflowing, but the dam is holding. It's naturally fed by a series of springs. But the storm threwso much excessive runoff at it, semi clogging a few culverts that normally release water into a second lower pond where it is released into a creek. As for our main route down into town, it, too, is impassable with downed trees here and there, a few washouts, a couple downed power lines, etc. Watauga County Sheriff's Dept issued an order for everyone to stay put until further notice. Could be days before power is restored. Quite a mess.....